The Elephant in the Room: Lets talk about Jon Scheyer

[UrinalCake]

In next year's class, only one player of the 5 that have been recruited - Mackenzie Mgbako - is a clear one-and-done player. The rest of the players are all highly-rated recruits in the top 50 of their high school class. However, at least 3 and as many as 4 of them appear to be destined for 2 or more years in college.

Just to push back a bit - depending on which recruiting service you look at, all five recruits are more like top-25 players and not top-50. It's possible that 3 or 4 stay for more than one year, but it's also possible that all five go. I do see a shift in recruiting guys who are ranked slightly lower, but it is still TBD whether we get multiple years out of them. And honestly bringing in a guy ranked in the 20's who leaves after a year is the worst possible scenario. If you're going to have a OAD then you'd rather have a top-5 guy who can make an immediate impact.

So we'll see. I'm optimistic that Schutt, Blakes, and Reeves return and we get one of Proctor or Mitchell back. That's not a ton of experience returning but it's something. Anything more and I'd be really happy. As long as Jon can land five stars he's going to keep bringing them in.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I know a lot of posters do not go into the recruitment threads. If you did, you might notice that Coach Scheyer and staff are recruiting players that are going to be around for a couple of years.

The current roster include a pair of upperclassmen, Ryan Young and Jaylen Blakes, that should be on the roster next season.

Among the current crop of freshmen, at least 3 players - Tyrese Proctor, Christian Reeves, and Jaden Schutt - are very likely going to be on the team next season. There's a good chance that one of Kyle Filipowski or Mark Mitchell will be there as well. At the beginning of the year, I would have thought that Filipowski would be more likely than Mitchell, but that could be changing.

In next year's class, only one player of the 5 that have been recruited - Mackenzie Mgbako - is a clear one-and-done player. The rest of the players are all highly-rated recruits in the top 50 of their high school class. However, at least 3 and as many as 4 of them appear to be destined for 2 or more years in college.

In the class of 2024, the first and so-far only player that has committed - Darren Harris - is another player similar to Jaden Schutt that appears to be a multi-year college player.

If you are looking for Coach Scheyer to rely less on one-and-done players, that is what is happening. They are still going to after a few one-and-done types. Hopefully we will all be happy to see these multi-year guys grow and develop.

What are you basing the bolded on? Just curious, as I'm wondering how you know the plans of our current players/future players.

I have no reason to believe anything will be different until I see the results. I am fully expecting at least 5 of Lively, Whitehead, Roach, Mitchell, Flip, and Proctor to not be in a Duke uniform next year (whether it's the NBA or transferring).

[MChambers]

Gosh, I am dismayed by the existence of this thread so early in Jon Scheyer's tenure. I am happy to see that the majority of posters think that there is no question that Jon is doing a good job.

You might remember that when Duke held the press conference to announce Coach K's retirement and Jon's promotion, Coach K talked about how Tom Butters had faith in him, even when Duke basketball was struggling in his first few years. He looked at Nina King and said something about how she might need to have the same faith (in Jon, of course). There was some laughter in the room, but Coach K was making a serious point. We would all do well to remember it.

[Hartford Dukie]

If we want to assess the head coach, can we talk about how, on an adjusted basis, Duke just put up their best offensive performance of the season? T-Rank has Duke's game against VT being the highest adjusted offensive efficiency of the year. This is for a team that had a lot of trouble scoring the ball of late. We are seeing the team grow and develop in real time. Proctor is now the PG and is doing a pretty good job (13 pts/3.5 ast/1.3 tov last 4 games) while Roach is more or less the same player he has been throughout his time at Duke. I think the Proctor-Roach backcourt, while not as good as Tyus Jones-Quinn Cook, can work. Filipowski is clearly the go-to scorer for this team. They need complementary scorers and hopefully Grandison or maybe even Schutt can help in the backcourt while Young helps in the post. Mitchell has shown that he can do a little this and that and Lively can be a difference maker on defense. The team has rebounded from a low point against NC State. Is Jon doing a good job this season? I think so, but it's too early to tell. He's making adjustments. He's getting his players to play together and communicate with each other. The results will hopefully be there soon.

Hey DBA - This not so much about your post but one measure of how Jon is doing. I am asking you since you appear to be on top of Duke's recruting here at DBR (and elsewhere).

Dylan Harper - seems to be the focus of Duke's recruitment for '24 - agreed? Scuttlebutt seems to be that Duke, despite his father and brother going to Rutgers, is slightly favored - in part because mom seems in charge and she seems to like Duke. But they are watching how Jon does.

So I regard the outcome of the Harper recruitment as one tell as to how Jon's first year is being perceived. If Duke gets him, I am reassured that any struggles this year, will have modest adverse impact on Duke's recruitment. However, if we lose Harper, while, of course, not catastrophic, will raise a flag about how Duke's first year is being perceived by recruits and their families. Your thoughts on the outcome of the Harper recruitment as a recruiting tell on Jon. Thanks

[DavidBenAkiva]

What are you basing the bolded on? Just curious, as I'm wondering how you know the plans of our current players/future players.

I have no reason to believe anything will be different until I see the results. I am fully expecting at least 5 of Lively, Whitehead, Roach, Mitchell, Flip, and Proctor to not be in a Duke uniform next year (whether it's the NBA or transferring).

People better-connected to the program than me (I am not at all) have alluded to this, here on DBR and on other boards.

Here's our very own Jason Evans:

I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...34#post1557234

I'm in the camp that Proctor, Filipowski, and Mitchell are all going to be in the Trevor Keels path at the end of the season. No one has Proctor on their draft boards right now. Unless he starts hitting 40%+ from 3 or scoring 20+ a game, that isn't changing. He's the starting PG for Duke and should be next year if he comes back. That seems pretty solid in my mind. I think it's truly 50/50 for Filipowski and Mitchell. If Flip continues to have nights like last night, he probably goes pro. Mitchell, it's a little harder to tell. All things being equal, I think one of those two comes back next season. You seem too pessimistic about this while I might be too optimistic.

As for the Class of 2023, that's just my read on the situation given the consensus recruiting ranking for each player as well as the current approach (or lack thereof) for the Class of 2024. The coaching staff is acting a lot like they expect a bunch of guys from 2022 and 2023 to be back in 2024. I've always been one to follow the lead of the coaching staff. Unless I'm way off, I think we'll see McCain, Power, and maybe one or both of Foster and Stewart as sophomores. At minimum, 3 guys from 2022 are multi-year players. Holding onto 3 or so players every recruiting class is what a lot on this board want to see. We're about to see it.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Just to push back a bit - depending on which recruiting service you look at, all five recruits are more like top-25 players and not top-50. It's possible that 3 or 4 stay for more than one year, but it's also possible that all five go. I do see a shift in recruiting guys who are ranked slightly lower, but it is still TBD whether we get multiple years out of them. And honestly bringing in a guy ranked in the 20's who leaves after a year is the worst possible scenario. If you're going to have a OAD then you'd rather have a top-5 guy who can make an immediate impact.

So we'll see. I'm optimistic that Schutt, Blakes, and Reeves return and we get one of Proctor or Mitchell back. That's not a ton of experience returning but it's something. Anything more and I'd be really happy. As long as Jon can land five stars he's going to keep bringing them in.

ESPN and other services have a few of the guys outside of the top 25, so I went with top 50. I think all 5 might end up in the RSCI top 25 or close to it. The ranking services are sort of all over the place with the Class of 2023. That makes sense given the disruptions to recruiting due to COVID. I just went with the safe statement and wrote top 50.

[flyingdutchdevil]

People better-connected to the program than me (I am not at all) have alluded to this, here on DBR and on other boards.

Here's our very own Jason Evans:



https://forums.dukebasketballreport...34#post1557234

I'm in the camp that Proctor, Filipowski, and Mitchell are all going to be in the Trevor Keels path at the end of the season. No one has Proctor on their draft boards right now. Unless he starts hitting 40%+ from 3 or scoring 20+ a game, that isn't changing. He's the starting PG for Duke and should be next year if he comes back. That seems pretty solid in my mind. I think it's truly 50/50 for Filipowski and Mitchell. If Flip continues to have nights like last night, he probably goes pro. Mitchell, it's a little harder to tell. All things being equal, I think one of those two comes back next season. You seem too pessimistic about this while I might be too optimistic.

As for the Class of 2023, that's just my read on the situation given the consensus recruiting ranking for each player as well as the current approach (or lack thereof) for the Class of 2024. The coaching staff is acting a lot like they expect a bunch of guys from 2022 and 2023 to be back in 2024. I've always been one to follow the lead of the coaching staff. Unless I'm way off, I think we'll see McCain, Power, and maybe one or both of Foster and Stewart as sophomores. At minimum, 3 guys from 2022 are multi-year players. Holding onto 3 or so players every recruiting class is what a lot on this board want to see. We're about to see it.

I guess we'll see if we'll see it. I remain in the camp of "Duke is an NBA school" and the recruiting of 4+ top 25 talent reconfirms that.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Hey DBA - This not so much about your post but one measure of how Jon is doing. I am asking you since you appear to be on top of Duke's recruting here at DBR (and elsewhere).

Dylan Harper - seems to be the focus of Duke's recruitment for '24 - agreed? Scuttlebutt seems to be that Duke, despite his father and brother going to Rutgers, is slightly favored - in part because mom seems in charge and she seems to like Duke. But they are watching how Jon does.

So I regard the outcome of the Harper recruitment as one tell as to how Jon's first year is being perceived. If Duke gets him, I am reassured that any struggles this year, will have modest adverse impact on Duke's recruitment. However, if we lose Harper, while, of course, not catastrophic, will raise a flag about how Duke's first year is being perceived by recruits and their families. Your thoughts on the outcome of the Harper recruitment as a recruiting tell on Jon. Thanks

Duke hasn't offered a ton of players in the Class of 2024 and few of them have made official visits. Harper has both an offer and a visit. I think that right there is a pretty big tell that the coaching staff is serious about him as a primary target.

Personally, I don't see Harper or any one recruit as a bell weather. Is he going to go to change his mind about Rutgers or Indiana because those teams lost on a Monday night in January his junior year of high school? That seems far fetched to me. I don't think any single game is going to make or break a recruitment. I do think trends are important. He and his mother probably want to see the trajectory of the program. Finishing the season strong, getting players from this roster to the NBA (at least a few of them), those are going to matter. Then again, Coach Scheyer locked up the classes of 2022 and 2023 before his first season as head coach. If I were Harper, I would care more about the relationship and overall ability to get players like him to the NBA. That's probably his ultimate goal. Neither Indiana or Rutgers has a track record like Duke in that regard. Most of the guys on the current roster at Rutgers are juniors and seniors this year. Can you safely assume that Coach Steve Pikiell is going to replenish the roster in time for Harper? Duke can at least tell him and his family which players it expects to be there with him. Pikiell has to wait to restock the roster through the portal. I think it comes down to what he wants. In some ways, there is more certainty with Duke. There's a big national stage. There are all those NBA players. There is a longer track record of success, even if the head coach hasn't been around quite as long. Rutgers is going to be all about trust and heart. Does he love it there? Does being "home" matter most? That's all too much to pin on this one season in my mind. Even if Duke flames out in March, I don't think it will say much about Jon Scheyer as a coach or person. We'll have to wait to see if he gets Harper and then the next guys in 2025 and 2026 before we can say one thing or another with any certainty. That's my two cents.

[azzefkram]

Jon has coached well, not great, but certainly not poorly or even meh. He has had some tremendously bad luck with injuries, and Trevor's late decision to go pro was a more significant blow than many of us realized/anticipated. His in-game adjustments have been a bit of a mixed bag, but that is to be expected with a first-time coach.

I think Jon will be a very good coach in time.

[lotusland]

I’m willing to be patient with Jon, and the injuries have obviously been a factor (as they always are). I think Duke needs a change in macro strategy. The reliance on one and done has run its course in my opinion. We’ll see what happens with this years team, but Duke needs more players like Wendell Moore or Tre Jones who stay at Duke more than one year. I know the days of a four year player are done, but perhaps the new rules will make it possible to actually develop talent rather than merely manage it. But perhaps I’m just nostalgic and it’s to be new guys every year from now on.

I don’t think the transfer portal and unknown NIL payments promote roster stabilization. Both promote rebuilding the team from the ground up on an annual basis. We have an almost totally new roster this year and there is not one current player on scholarship that we can count on to be here next year. Jon may be a better person than K to figure this out. It’s a brave new world. The signed recruits are the closest thing we have to a sure thing for next years roster at this point.

[LSanders]

Edit: the thread title made me chuckle. Taking it seriously is silly.

Pretty much sums it up for me.

[UrinalCake]

Trevor's late decision to go pro was a more significant blow than many of us realized/anticipated.

Interesting to think about what this team would look like with Keels instead of Grandison. I assume Proctor would have still come early, but maybe not. We expect that Keels would have made a big leap, but there's no guarantee. Having another experienced player who was also tight with Roach would have been big. If we got the Keels from the UK game all season long then of course we would be a completely different team.

The other alternate universe is where Keels makes a firm decision to leave right off the bat rather than leaving the door open to return right up until literally the final hour. Then maybe we land AJ Green (probably not since he went pro), Baylor Scheirman (having a good, not great season at Creighton), Malachi Smith (doing better than Grandison but not by a lot), or one of the other bigger name transfers that we were after. Not sure any of those guys would have drastically changed the course of this team. I will say that the way Jon handled Keel's situation - supporting his player no matter which decision was made - showed a lot of character and probably went a long way towards future recruits believing they could trust him.

[Birdman79]

As in any vocation, we are measured. At this juncture I leave some observations:
1. In game coaching seems stale. Switch to a zone to slow down a hot shooting team…ie VT.
2. Player development- what players have improved?
3. Urgency.

Not a high bar but simple measurements we can all relate to and be measured by. Need intensity and urgency from both players and staff.

[dukelifer]

As in any vocation, we are measured. At this juncture I leave some observations:
1. In game coaching seems stale. Switch to a zone to slow down a hot shooting team…ie VT.
2. Player development- what players have improved?
3. Urgency.

Not a high bar but simple measurements we can all relate to and be measured by. Need intensity and urgency from both players and staff.

Can 2 be determined in the middle of a season. That is asking a lot. Flip went from being a bust at the start of the season to an All American. Then again Lively went from a POY candidate and consensus lottery pick to maybe getting honorable mention all defensive team.

[CDu]

As in any vocation, we are measured. At this juncture I leave some observations:
1. In game coaching seems stale. Switch to a zone to slow down a hot shooting team…ie VT.
2. Player development- what players have improved?
3. Urgency.

Not a high bar but simple measurements we can all relate to and be measured by. Need intensity and urgency from both players and staff.

1. Most teams don't switch to zone to better defend the 3. They do it to defend the 2. Typically, getting a good look at a 3 is much easier against a zone than against man defense.
2. Proctor and Filipowski have both shown noticeable improvements in recent games. There's still time for others to show development too.
3. I don't think the team lacks for urgency. They are fighting. They just are young, and have to figure out how to overcome some of the limitations that they have as a team.

[RetireVergaJersey]

Jon wasn't going to pick up a tech there with the game still in the balance. And I don't believe Jon wanted to waste time refuting the no-call cause he needed that time to try and draw up a game-tying play.

Are you saying he drew up that last play? Why would you have a 26% 3 pt shooter take that shot. Drive the ball to the basket.

[VA_BDevil]

I know a lot of posters do not go into the recruitment threads. If you did, you might notice that Coach Scheyer and staff are recruiting players that are going to be around for a couple of years.

The current roster include a pair of upperclassmen, Ryan Young and Jaylen Blakes, that should be on the roster next season.

Among the current crop of freshmen, at least 3 players - Tyrese Proctor, Christian Reeves, and Jaden Schutt - are very likely going to be on the team next season. There's a good chance that one of Kyle Filipowski or Mark Mitchell will be there as well. At the beginning of the year, I would have thought that Filipowski would be more likely than Mitchell, but that could be changing.

In next year's class, only one player of the 5 that have been recruited - Mackenzie Mgbako - is a clear one-and-done player. The rest of the players are all highly-rated recruits in the top 50 of their high school class. However, at least 3 and as many as 4 of them appear to be destined for 2 or more years in college.

In the class of 2024, the first and so-far only player that has committed - Darren Harris - is another player similar to Jaden Schutt that appears to be a multi-year college player.

If you are looking for Coach Scheyer to rely less on one-and-done players, that is what is happening. They are still going to after a few one-and-done types. Hopefully we will all be happy to see these multi-year guys grow and develop.

I certainly hope you are right, even partially. While I don't follow recruiting as much as some others, I did see that class of '24 Rakease Passmore visited Cameron recently. I do know enough to know that Passmore & Schutt is a combo I'd like to see on the court together.

[bshrader]

People better-connected to the program than me (I am not at all) have alluded to this, here on DBR and on other boards.

Here's our very own Jason Evans:



https://forums.dukebasketballreport...34#post1557234

I'm in the camp that Proctor, Filipowski, and Mitchell are all going to be in the Trevor Keels path at the end of the season. No one has Proctor on their draft boards right now. Unless he starts hitting 40%+ from 3 or scoring 20+ a game, that isn't changing. He's the starting PG for Duke and should be next year if he comes back. That seems pretty solid in my mind. I think it's truly 50/50 for Filipowski and Mitchell. If Flip continues to have nights like last night, he probably goes pro. Mitchell, it's a little harder to tell. All things being equal, I think one of those two comes back next season. You seem too pessimistic about this while I might be too optimistic.

As for the Class of 2023, that's just my read on the situation given the consensus recruiting ranking for each player as well as the current approach (or lack thereof) for the Class of 2024. The coaching staff is acting a lot like they expect a bunch of guys from 2022 and 2023 to be back in 2024. I've always been one to follow the lead of the coaching staff. Unless I'm way off, I think we'll see McCain, Power, and maybe one or both of Foster and Stewart as sophomores. At minimum, 3 guys from 2022 are multi-year players. Holding onto 3 or so players every recruiting class is what a lot on this board want to see. We're about to see it.

I'll note here for Mitchell, something that has to be considered, and thats the logjam at the wing positions, should he opt to return. Mitchell is actually the one guy I most want to see return (followed by Proctor), because of what he can offer our team defensively next year, as well as the versatility on the offensive end. But with Mgbako, Stewart and Power coming in, he may see the minutes getting thin and opt to go another direction.

[Luke102452]

I don’t see any “elephant in the room “. Jon was given a roster that had one returning regular and a bunch of newbies, whether freshmen or transfers. Two of those freshmen were injured early and fell behind and then underperformed once they did return. The only problem I see is a young team trying to figure out how to win on the road. Last night could have gone either way and if a certain proper call had been made they would likely have won. I haven’t seen an issue with coaching as much as I have seen an issue with injuries and youth.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'll note here for Mitchell, something that has to be considered, and thats the logjam at the wing positions, should he opt to return. Mitchell is actually the one guy I most want to see return (followed by Proctor), because of what he can offer our team defensively next year, as well as the versatility on the offensive end. But with Mgbako, Stewart and Power coming in, he may see the minutes getting thin and opt to go another direction.

Mitchell, Mgbako, Power, and Stewart are all kinda the same size (6'8"). All 4 can play the 4. Mitchell and Mgbako can play the 3, but are both better suited for the 4. Stewart is a interesting small ball 5 but would play the 4 if, say, Ryan Young or Lively is back. Power looks like a 3/4 or, as we call it, a Coach K 4.

I suspect Mgbako starts no matter what. Looks like he'd be the offensive alpha next year. Whether at the 3 or the 4, I have no idea. I'd assume Mitchell starts, given his defensive chops and his experience. Stewart can play the small ball 5 or come off the bench.

I think there is a role for each of them next year, but if Mitchell wants 30+ min a game, that may be hard to come by.