Phase II - 2008

[Jumbo]

P.S. I hope Marty P gets more PT. I like his game and determination and grit. I also want McClure to get more time.

dukemom,
I do NOT want this to turn into another depth debate. That said, this isn't the first time I've seen you post these sentiments. You do realize that if these guys are to get more playing time, that will have to come at the expense of someone else, right? You also realize that McClure is still coming back from a serious injury, right?

I don't want to debate this issue in this thread, because that's not the subject. But if you're going to bring this stuff up in the future, I'd hope you could acknowledge the challenges of just handing out playing time.

[throatybeard]

I think after a certain number of posts, all threads become depth threads. Unless they turn into a stall ball thread. There's probably an equation that would explain these phenomena.

[snowdenscold]

I think after a certain number of posts, all threads become depth threads. Unless they turn into a stall ball thread. There's probably an equation that would explain these phenomena.

Sounds like something I've completely forgotten from an old differential equations class. But I think the DBR version could be something like, "for the total number of extra pages a basketball thread goes - 'n', the probability it will devolve to depth or stall ball becomes 1 - (1/2^n)"

OK, I'll stop now...

[Jumbo]

You know how some NFL coaches like to divide the season into four-game segments? Well, the more I think about it, the more I feel as if the Maui championship marked the end of the first segment of Duke's season. Think about it -- it was a measuring stick of sorts. All the individual work done during the summer and all the strategy implemented since the start of practice ended up being tested in a three games/three days scenario where Duke had little time to work on things or adjust. It was an early report card, and it was promising, particularly given the 5-0 record and Maui title.

Now Duke embarks on Phase II. I'd say that stretches from Sunday's game through the Pitt game on Dec. 20th. Duke is back from Maui and will be able to resume a regular practice schedule. The Devils will face opponents across a wide spectrum of ability and style. And we'll see how they adjust based on what they learned from the first part of the season.

So far, we know that Duke has its most balanced attack in years. We know Kyle Singler is for real. We know that the team can go at least eight deep against good teams. We know that Duke will look to push the ball whenever possible, that the offense is still a work in progress and that spacing is key. We know that K will mix in zone more than he has since the mid-90s. And we know that this year's group already seems tougher and more "together" than last year's squad. But progress has to continue, and here's what I'll be watching over the next segment:

*Can Duke develop a reliable backup for Kyle Singler?
Ideally, this would be Dave McClure or Taylor King. But it's not that simple. I love Dave's game, and I think his D will be vital. But first, he's got to get healthy. Then, there's another issue -- when Singler's out of the game, Duke loses a ton of offense. And McClure certainly isn't an offensive-minded player. So, either Brian Zoubek or Lance Thomas will at least need to become a competent scorer to play next to Dave. Otherwise, Duke will have two offensive liabilities on the floor, making it much easier for opponents to stop Duke's guards.
King is a better offensive player -- in certain matchups. Right now, he can take bigger players out of the lane, run the high screen/roll and burn then with threes. But against teams like Marquette, with smaller, quicker PFs, that advantage is negated. And King leaves a lot to be desired at the other end.
So, hopefully one of those two situations sorts itself out. If not, Duke probably will end up going small to fill in for Singler, with Henderson, Nelson, Scheyer and a point guard all on the floor together. In theory, Thomas and Zoubek could play together too, but you'd have the same issue as with Dave playing, unless one of them becomes a significant offensive threat.

*Can the "new" offense progress to be more Suns-like?
I say "new" in parentheses because it's not completely revolutionary. Duke has always liked to run. Duke has always used ball screens and spacing in its halfcourt sets. That said, Duke has incorporated much more of that philosophy into its current approach. But we're not all the way there yet. Clearly, Duke isn't pushing the ball at every opportunity yet. In the halfcourt set, Duke won't look identical to the Suns, because they have no one resembling Steve Nash (who handles the ball a huge % of each possession). But while the spacing is good, the ball movement must get better. In particular, Nelson and Henderson must do a better job of kicking the ball to the weak side when slashing from the wings. And everyone needs to do a better job of making quicker decisions off the high screen/roll.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
The guy suffering the most from the lack of ball movement is Scheyer. The kid is not J.J. Redick. He's also not Dahntay Jones. He's a playmaker. He's very good with the ball in his hands, making quick decisions. Ideally, he's best suited for a true motion offense. But he can still be effective in this set if his teammates step up. More often than not, he's the guy who is open in the situations I described above, but he's not getting the ball kicked back out. The other guys need to recognize when he's open and get him the ball, because he can score.
The flip side is that Jon has to be more aggressive. He's passing up too many open shots, because I don't think he realizes that he's actually open. And for the people who considered him just a jump shooter, he's getting into the lane quite well. Problem is, he's not going up strong. There have been a few occasions where he got near the rim and flipped up some circus shot or tried to make a tough pass, rather than trusting himself and finishing his drive. The kid is tall and athletic enough to get to the rim and savvy enough to -- at minimum -- draw a foul in the process. As much as he needs his teammates to get him more involved on offense, he also needs to be much more aggressive.

*Can Greg Paulus improve defensively?
He's staying in front of his man better than last year -- you can see the difference in his health. But that doesn't mean he's a good defender yet. His on-ball D is average at best, but I'm most concerned about what he's doing off the ball. Right now, he is consistently losing his man on switches and not closing out in time. I don't know if this is an issue related to fatigue, confusion or effort. But for Duke to become a better team, he has to pay more attention to this aspect of his game.

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
We're used to defenders forcing Paulus to turn his back when dribbling. But none of us expected to see that from Smith. Yet, in Maui, that was the case. Smith looked tentative on offense. He was hesitant to shoot, hesitant to drive and a little shaky handling the ball. I'm sure most of that is just due to his being a freshman and being saddled with the responsibility of running the offense. So, we should hope that this improves as the season goes along.

*Can Duke up its pressure man-to-man D to its old level?
Look, it's nice that Duke can go zone every now and then to mix things up. But man is a superior defense. Man is Duke's calling card. Man forces more turnovers. And it's much easier to rebound out of man than zone. Duke is doing a better job containing quick guards than last year. But to improve, the team needs to start forcing more turnovers, leading to easy baskets.

Obviously, there are other issues to watch -- the development of Lance/Zoubek, Singler learning to avoid fouls, team rebounding, etc. But I'll be keeping my eyes focused more closely on the list above, because I think each is a key aspect of Duke taking "The Next Step" as a team.

Thought I'd revisit these topics midway through "Phase II."

*Can Duke develop a reliable backup for Kyle Singler?
We certainly seem headed in that direction. Taylor King has responded extremely well to his limited role in Maui, to the point where he is not only able to give Singler a break, but is pushing Zoubek for minutes next to Singler. Assuming McClure can be fully healthy by January, I continue to believe he'll also provide a big lift.

*Can the "new" offense progress to be more Suns-like?
I haven't seen it yet. Nelson is doing a slightly better job of kicking the ball out when he drives, but Henderson definitely drives to score. I'm starting to believe that the offense is more about spacing and less about replicating what the Suns do, which is fine -- Duke doesn't have the personnel to replicated it on the college level, anyway.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
Well, Coach K still hasn't changed his role -- Scheyer is still standing in the corner a lot. It's a shame, as it doesn't utilize his playmaking abilities. But at least Scheyer is starting to look for his shot a little bit more. He's still unselfish to a fault, and this is still an area where improvement is necessary. But I feel a little more confident about this than at the start of this phase -- let's see how he does against Pitt.

*Can Greg Paulus improve defensively?
Sadly, I haven't seen much of a difference here since Maui.

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
Same as with Paulus, there hasn't been much of a change in this regard. Smith is still learning to play the point, and as a result, he seems to be thinking more than reacting, which is limiting his natural quickness and aggressiveness.

*Can Duke up its pressure man-to-man D to its old level?
I'm not sure about this one, either. I'd like to see Duke extend to full-court man early in games. The ball-pressure has been good lately, but not "vintage Duke" good.

[greybeard]

Suppose for a second we are talking about armies in ancient Greek times. The conventional and almost universally accepted strategy among these city state generals was that your army was best lead by a front line in the shape of a view, with your fiercest and most creative and daring fighter in the middle. He would break down the other army's strength, its middle, and the rest of the forces would be left in disarray. On the other side, defensive strategy had as its central theme to lop off the other army's head, its point if you will.

In either case, the key was in this point; if he was effective or rendered ineffective, the other side falters, its troups are in disarray, you can rape and pillage, and then go after the women. (you got to put a tad of humor in.)

Now one of these city states says the heck with these Greek generals and hires themselves someone from the North country with a fresh idea. He decides that the point of attack will be dispersed, among many highly skilled fighters who could never succeed at the point of the V. What he needs at the point of the V is someone who is incredibly strong of mind, character and body. Who will lead the attack but not initiate it. His job is not to falter; his job is to weather the strength and force that the other side throws at him but to not go down, and by example and force of will lead his troups to hold their shape, wait for the moment.

This guy must be resiliant. He might get beat but can never be defeated. He must hold his feet, stay his grown, and deliver to the initiators.

Now, the other generals catch on and they try to devise special new schemes to match what the guy from the North has brought, but that is not really what their guys do. Besides, even if they catch on and can train their non points, they must contend with the reality of the superior forces that they encounter in this new game. And, relieving the pressure off the point, they must contend with him, and it turns out that he can really hurt some people in that context and will. Without mercy he will.

How do you value such a leader, this Braveheart? Don't ask me, I ain't the General.

[DomerDevil]

You know how some NFL coaches like to divide the season into four-game segments? Well, the more I think about it, the more I feel as if the Maui championship marked the end of the first segment of Duke's season. Think about it -- it was a measuring stick of sorts. All the individual work done during the summer and all the strategy implemented since the start of practice ended up being tested in a three games/three days scenario where Duke had little time to work on things or adjust. It was an early report card, and it was promising, particularly given the 5-0 record and Maui title.

Great thread! Not only do NFL coaches break down seasons in this manner so does Coach K. I remember reading several times statements about how he tries to get the team to set goals for particular phases of the season. In effect that creates a series of building blocks upon which an overall successful season can be built.

Here is another issue I think still needs to be worked out, though the next phase in the season may not be the point for doing it, depending on how many tight games there are before the ACC begins. In crunch times of close games who will be "the guy"? Of course, J.J. was that guy a few years ago, but even on the great teams of the early 90s, which were much more diverse offensively than the J.J. and Shelden teams, there was one player you knew was going to the offensive focal point at the end of a close game, first Laettner ('91 & '92) then G. Hill ('94). Who will be that guy this year?

Based on the end of the Davidson game, is Paulus that player in the making?

[JasonEvans]

Here is another issue I think still needs to be worked out, though the next phase in the season may not be the point for doing it, depending on how many tight games there are before the ACC begins. In crunch times of close games who will be "the guy"? Of course, J.J. was that guy a few years ago, but even on the great teams of the early 90s, which were much more diverse offensively than the J.J. and Shelden teams, there was one player you knew was going to the offensive focal point at the end of a close game, first Laettner ('91 & '92) then G. Hill ('94). Who will be that guy this year?

Based on the end of the Davidson game, is Paulus that player in the making?

I think one of the great strengths of this Duke team is that there is no one player you can focus upon to stop when Duke needs a late-game score. The balance on this club is something I have not seen very much at Duke.

Just look at our results so far this year-- through 8 games we have had 5 different guys take the role of "leading scorer." Three players have led us in scoring twice and no one has led us in scoring more than twice. We've got 6 players averaging between 9 and 14 points per game. We are the very definition of balance.

I think much of our end-game strategy will be an in-game decision. Henderson, when he is on, is clearly our most potent weapon and he can be unstoppable. I think he is option 1 if he is having a good game. But, Henderson is still inconsistent and we clearly have several other options if he is not having a great run at the moment. I love the ball in Singler's hands on the perimeter as he can take almost any other big-man in the country off the dribble. Scheyer and Nelson are also quite capable of creating their own shot or drawing the D and dishing. I like running screens and rolls with Paulus as he can be deadly from outside if the D gives him even a tiny bit of room. The options are just so numerous.

It is quite a luxury to have and not one we have really had very much in recent seasons.

--Jason "I think it is quite rare to be this good and yet not have any 'star' that you go to late in games" Evans

[RelativeWays]

I'd like to see Zoub and Lance improve their interior scoring. I think Lance has the ability, we've seen flashes of it this year. I think he needs just a bit of self confidence. I don't think he's been as foul happy as last year.

Z needs to be more aggressive offensively, and more reserved defensively so he doesn't pick up cheap fouls. Right now its the other way around. he seems to think too much when he has the ball on the offensive end, you can almost see the gears in his head turn as he figures out what to do with the ball and that allows the defensive to collapse on him and usually force a turnover. Once he realizes that he is over 7 foot and strong, he only needs to muscle the ball up for a put back and draw contact. I think he tries to be to delicate which results in near misses. I hate to use the term black hole, but honestly if he gets the ball under the basket, his first instinct should be to put it up for the score.

Our wing players and guards are great. Smith only needs more experience to get over the silly turnovers. He's fast and can break down a defense if he wants to.

We really have a lot of good problems this year, because improving those problems will make us much better.

[77devil]

Henderson, when he is on, is clearly our most potent weapon and he can be unstoppable.

The opperative word here is when. I would add that Henderson is prone to poor shot selection and forcing his offense notwithstanding the number of other offensive options on the floor. I am confident that the coaches will continue to work with him on this aspect of his game, and I expect Henderson will improve his decision making.

[greybeard]

The opperative word here is when. I would add that Henderson is prone to poor shot selection and forcing his offense notwithstanding the number of other offensive options on the floor. I am confident that the coaches will continue to work with him on this aspect of his game, and I expect Henderson will improve his decision making.

At the same time, he might also tweak his attacks and/or finishes in nuanced ways that make his outcomes more reliable. In which case, ouch!

[CDu]

At the same time, he might also tweak his attacks and/or finishes in nuanced ways that make his outcomes more reliable. In which case, ouch!

Agreed. There are many ways in which Henderson can adjust his game to make him even more dangerous. With his athleticism/explosiveness and developing shooting touch, there's a wealth of potential there.

[Bob Green]

The balance on this club is something I have not seen very much at Duke.

I agree. And bench production has been missing in recent years as well. So far this season, and I realize it is early and early season statistics can be misleading, the starters are averaging 54.6 ppg. Players six through nine are chipping in an additional 28.9 ppg (Scheyer - 11, King - 9.9, Smith - 4.6, Zoubek - 3.4).

Last season we didn't even get production from our fifth starter much less our bench!

I am eager to watch this team develop as the season progresses.

[Clipsfan]

P.S. I hope Marty P gets more PT. I like his game and determination and grit. I also want McClure to get more time.

I'm assuming you haven't seen that Marty won't play again this year due to injury.

[Bluedog]

I'm assuming you haven't seen that Marty won't play again this year due to injury.

The post you were responding to was made on Nov 25 before the injury was known.

[Jumbo]

So, the plan was to follow up on these after Phase II. Let's evaluate how well we hit these goals now that the initial emotion of the Pitt loss has faded.

*Can Duke develop a reliable backup for Kyle Singler?
Yes. Obviously, no one can match all the things Singler does for Duke. But Taylor King has shown that he can be really effective against average oppoents, and hopefully he'll step up against good teams. Dave McClure is now back in the mix and despite one step-back jumper, his D will be vital come ACC play. These two guys certainly can give Singler enough of a break.

*Can the "new" offense progress to be more Suns-like?

It hasn't happened that way. Duke probably ran less during Segment II than Segment I. While the team is still spreading the floor to create driving lanes, Duke isn't utilizing the pick-and-roll with Singler as effectively as I expected, nor are the Devils taking advantage of dribble hand-offs in the way the Suns do.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?

This, in many ways, is tied to the Suns-like thing. Scheyer is one guy who would benefit from both those changes -- more pick-and-roll, more dribble hand-offs. Standing in the corner is not his strong suit -- he needs to be all to be effecive. The flip side is that some of this falls on his shoulders. When he has the ball, he needs to be aggressive. We need to see more of what he displayed in the Albany game, especially his taking the ball into the lane.

*Can Greg Paulus improve defensively?
Yes! He's never going to be a great defender, or even a very good defender. But he's a lot better than last year, and I think he was stronger in Segment II than Segment I. He did a fairly nice job in the Pitt game. He's not getting beat off the dribble nearly as much and he's helping to force more turnovers. He's still probably the worst defensive guard of Duke's quintet, but he's nowhere close to the liability he was last year. Yay, healthy foot.

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?

I don't know. It sure looked that way against Michigan. But the Pittsburgh game was a major step back for the kid. He had trouble simply dribbling across halfcourt, really struggling against Pittsburgh's ball pressure. This will definitely remain on the to-do list for Segment III.

*Can Duke up its pressure man-to-man D to its old level?
Yes. I think the defense really improved during Segment II. Even in the Pitt game -- one where Duke supposedly couldn't stop anyone inside -- the Panthers only scored 65 points in an overtime battle. That's a game you should win. Why didn't Blair and Young go to town on straight post-ups, rather than just the offensive boards? Duke's perimeter D. The ball pressure forced Pitt's guards to start the offense too far from the basket, and the communication and switches were excellent for the most part.

So, I think we've seen some progress, yet there's still plenty of room for improvement. What does everyone else think? I'll have a new thread up with Segment III questions at some point.

[dw0827]

. . . for the update.

Personally, I thought our defense in the 1st half of the Pitt game was as good as I'd seen it all year. 2nd half was a different story. So with the proper mind set and motivation, I think our defense can be stellar . . especially with McClure back.

Regarding the backup to Singler, I had been hoping it would come from Thomas and/or Zoubek. So far, they haven't made the strides I hoped for . . .

True, King has been a surprise. But can we count on him for a strong defensive presence in ACC play to back up Singler? Offensively, yes . . . but how will he fare defensively in the rough-and-tumble ACC play? I worry . . . although he does have grit, doesn't he?

But I'm still thinking that some improvement from Lance and Zoubek is important.

As for your other thoughts, I agree with you. The offense doesn't look dramatically different. Still looking for the most effective role for Scheyer. Paulus is Paulus and he is playing smarter defense this year. We haven't run quite as much . . . but was the quality of the opponents a factor?

Looking forward to the next phase . . . ACC play is always such a blast. Separates the men from the boys.