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  1. #1
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    MBB: Miami vs. Duke Pre-Game & In-Game Thread (1/21, 12:00pm ET, ESPN)

    Let's Go Duke!

    I haven't seen a line, but I think the game favors Miami on paper. On the other hand, I personally think Duke should win this game. The outcome remains to be seen.

    Miami is playing well this year, and they have a lot of strengths. They shoot better from the field and score more than Duke, with pretty balanced scoring led by the guy in the ACC who may be my favorite non-Blue Devil player, Isaiah Wong. Norchad Omier is a wide-bodied beast on the boards averaging a double-double. They shoot FTs well as a team. Miami also won at Duke last year (remember the poor end game defense that offset a comeback led by Banchero? I sure do, I traveled 3000 miles for that one), so their veteran team feels confident that they can win at Cameron and won't be fazed much by the Crazies. They made the Elite 8 last year with much of the same personnel. And Jim Larranaga is no slouch as a coach.

    That being said, Duke plays better, much better, at home. The team seems to feed off the energy. They have a week off from the schedule, but it's a good bet that they are practicing - and practicing hard. The staff can and should focus on improvement and Miami for the whole week (though Miami also won't have played since Monday). I think Duke must take advantage of their size both offensively and defensively (Duke can play taller), limit turnovers, hit their FTs and not stink up the place shooting. Using size to get a key guy in foul trouble, especially down low, would be great. So I am trusting in these things to carry Duke through. And if Roach can come back and give them a lift, that emotion inside Cameron can only help.

    Duke's road woes are evident, but they are undefeated at home. In order to position itself well for the post-season, Duke must defend home court. They can afford a slip up, but not many. So here's hoping Duke saves that chit for another game, and they log a key win against the #17 team in the country.

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    I haven't seen a line, but I think the game favors Miami on paper.
    I haven't seen a line, either, but Miami will not be favored in this game. My guess is Duke -5 or -5.5.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I haven't seen a line, either, but Miami will not be favored in this game. My guess is Duke -5 or -5.5.
    Seems a bit generous to me. I think at best it's a toss up and then Duke gets a couple of points for home court. I could also see this as a pick 'em. But hey, I'm not Vegas!

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    Seems a bit generous to me. I think at best it's a toss up and then Duke gets a couple of points for home court. I could also see this as a pick 'em. But hey, I'm not Vegas!

    9F
    Torvik has Duke a 5.4 point favorite. I think Pomeroy has Duke around a 4.8 point favorite. Sagarin also has Duke by around 4.8. The opening line is usually pretty consistent with the computers, before it moves according to the bets put down on the game.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Torvik has Duke a 5.4 point favorite. I think Pomeroy has Duke around a 4.8 point favorite. Sagarin also has Duke by around 4.8. The opening line is usually pretty consistent with the computers, before it moves according to the bets put down on the game.
    The computers are too nice
       

  6. #6
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    I imagine we were favored against NCST and Wake Forest. Since we're playing at Cameron, I think Duke will be the favorite.

    GoDuke!

  7. #7
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    Duke has done a better job lately at coming out of the gates ready to play. We were ready to play at Clemson, which may have been the toughest environment we'll play in all year. Sure, you want the win and have to play well 40 minutes, but the way we started was an important change in my eyes. Now, I think the focus comes to playing well for a full 40 minutes.

  8. #8
    Big opportunity for a good win. The team should be rested since they havenít played a game since last Saturday at Clemson. Maybe we see the return of Jeremy Roach. And maybe we see some different wrinkles offensively for Duke. I think Coach Scheyer and staff probably worked on that during the time off this week. I expect a good game plan going into the game to be more efficient offensively and I think Duke wins this, possibly by more than the experts think.

  9. #9
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    A statement win would be awesome. When's the last time we went undefeated at home?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    A statement win would be awesome. When's the last time we went undefeated at home?
    Pretty sure it was 2014.

  11. #11
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    My bold prediction for this game: For us to win, Dereck is going to have to play 20+ minutes and be impactful defensively.

    Why? Miami is still Miami: a small, guard oriented team. Their leading rebounder, Norchad Omier, is only 6'7'' (albeit nearly 250 pounds), and besides him every player averaging more than 10 minutes per game is roughly classified (at least by ESPN) as a guard. That means that while Ryan could be impactful offensively, the Hurricanes are the type of team that could exploit him defensively. But we saw, specifically against Pittsburgh, how disruptive Dereck can be given his ability to switch and successfully guard on the perimeter... not to mention that his length inside will make it much more difficult for those guards at the rim.

    I'd love to see a defensive strategy in which we're ultra-aggressive and tight outside to prevent 3s, and correspondingly try to funnel Miami into taking contested shots against Lively. He'll have to be judicious with his fouls, but if he can be I think that becomes an advantage for us.

    I also think that we'll see a lot more small ball lineups against Miami by necessity, likely with a lot of Mark at the 4. If so, that becomes a plus matchup for us offensively as well. I'd love to see Mark and Dariq exploit their likely size advantage over their defenders by being aggressive, and giving Kyle/Ryan/Dereck second chance opportunities.
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  12. #12
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    Getting long rebounds on defense after missed 3's is super important. It's so draining when you play great defense, force a bad shot, and then don't get the rebound.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Why? Miami is still Miami: a small, guard oriented team. Their leading rebounder, Norchad Omier, is only 6'7'' (albeit nearly 250 pounds), and besides him every player averaging more than 10 minutes per game is roughly classified (at least by ESPN) as a guard. That means that while Ryan could be impactful offensively, the Hurricanes are the type of team that could exploit him defensively.
    Miami is absolutely going to target Young in PNR's every possession. I still remember that home blowout loss in 2015 where the Miami PG bragged afterwards that everybody knows how to beat Duke - just set a ball screen 30 feet away from the basket and our big will come out and overplay. I'll be curious to see how Jon chooses to defend. Most of the season we've been hedging and recovering, but lately we've been switching more (perhaps coinciding with Lively playing a bigger role). I don't want us straight up switching every screen like K used to do, leaving Mark Williams guarding Caleb Love all game. But we don't want to leave openings for them to get open threes either.

    I disagree that we NEED for Lively to play 20+ minutes. But I sure would like for him to have a breakout game.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Miami is absolutely going to target Young in PNR's every possession. I still remember that home blowout loss in 2015 where the Miami PG bragged afterwards that everybody knows how to beat Duke - just set a ball screen 30 feet away from the basket and our big will come out and overplay. I'll be curious to see how Jon chooses to defend. Most of the season we've been hedging and recovering, but lately we've been switching more (perhaps coinciding with Lively playing a bigger role). I don't want us straight up switching every screen like K used to do, leaving Mark Williams guarding Caleb Love all game. But we don't want to leave openings for them to get open threes either.

    I disagree that we NEED for Lively to play 20+ minutes. But I sure would like for him to have a breakout game.
    It would be nice if Young could master the art of the Zoubekian hedge. He's got the perfect body for it.

  15. #15
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    Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    My bold prediction for this game: For us to win, Dereck is going to have to play 20+ minutes and be impactful defensively.

    Why? Miami is still Miami: a small, guard oriented team. Their leading rebounder, Norchad Omier, is only 6'7'' (albeit nearly 250 pounds), and besides him every player averaging more than 10 minutes per game is roughly classified (at least by ESPN) as a guard. That means that while Ryan could be impactful offensively, the Hurricanes are the type of team that could exploit him defensively. But we saw, specifically against Pittsburgh, how disruptive Dereck can be given his ability to switch and successfully guard on the perimeter... not to mention that his length inside will make it much more difficult for those guards at the rim.

    I'd love to see a defensive strategy in which we're ultra-aggressive and tight outside to prevent 3s, and correspondingly try to funnel Miami into taking contested shots against Lively. He'll have to be judicious with his fouls, but if he can be I think that becomes an advantage for us.

    I also think that we'll see a lot more small ball lineups against Miami by necessity, likely with a lot of Mark at the 4. If so, that becomes a plus matchup for us offensively as well. I'd love to see Mark and Dariq exploit their likely size advantage over their defenders by being aggressive, and giving Kyle/Ryan/Dereck second chance opportunities.
    Brendan Marks of the Athletic has an article today about Duke's "ceiling" (no, it's not the roof) in which he writes:

    "The lineup Iíd like to see more? Proctor, Whitehead, Grandison, Mitchell and Filipowski. Per CBB Analytics, that group has only seen four minutes together this season, spread across two games. Maybe that unit struggles rebounding, but I feel like that combination could thrive."

    https://theathletic.com/4104842/2023...tehead-lively/

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Brendan Marks of the Athletic has an article today about Duke's "ceiling" (no, it's not the roof) in which he writes:

    "The lineup Iíd like to see more? Proctor, Whitehead, Grandison, Mitchell and Filipowski. Per CBB Analytics, that group has only seen four minutes together this season, spread across two games. Maybe that unit struggles rebounding, but I feel like that combination could thrive."

    https://theathletic.com/4104842/2023...tehead-lively/
    I do think that would work better for Filipowski and Mitchell on offense, as I feel both of them are currently playing a half-position or a full position down from what their skill set reflects. Hopefully that would be enough to offset the lack of punch that Young provides. It should in theory also help with defense, as they could essentially switch everything with that group.

  17. #17
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    Some on this forums were begging for a "small" lineup with Flip at the 5 for a while. That talk seemed to kind of die down once Ryan Young had some monster outings. This seems like a good game to try out a "small" lineup that still has a 7-footer at the 5.

  18. #18
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    Lewisville, NC
    I have visions of Isaiah Wong getting in the lane and torturing our defense, both shooting and dishing. Jordan Miller and Nijel Pack can also cause problems. Not much size for the Hurricanes, but they are strong on the perimeter.

    Don't have much conviction in picking the Blue Devils here, but I'm hoping that a solid week of practice and the home court advantage are enough to get the win.

  19. #19
    I don't get to attend many Duke games,and I just happened to get to go to the Miami game in Cameron last year. Bitter taste, I hope we come out with a sense of urgency from the jump this time. I'm very grateful to see that Charlie Moore isn't their PG anymore...dude gave us fits! Speaking of PGs, any word on Roach for this one?

  20. #20
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    Yep

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I do think that would work better for Filipowski and Mitchell on offense, as I feel both of them are currently playing a half-position or a full position down from what their skill set reflects. Hopefully that would be enough to offset the lack of punch that Young provides. It should in theory also help with defense, as they could essentially switch everything with that group.
    I agree. I'd like to see this lineup. K would have done it, but Scheyer hasn't gone small very often.

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