Dereck Lively II

[dlmzzz]

I guess the silver lining is that we might be getting one or two of them back next year.

Insane if he actually went pro with the state of him now.

Unfortunately, it's the opposite. He almost HAS to go pro after this year. Current draft boards tell him that if he goes pro this year, he will be a first round draft pick. If he sticks around and doesn't make huge progress in year 2, he would almost certainly not be a first round draft pick, and that decision would cost him millions.

Everyone wants to believe that if they were in his shoes, they would bet on themselves by coming back, work insanely hard, improve their prospects, and make even more dough. But I don't think that's a good business decision. Regardless of how hard he works, coming back has a very high chance of confirming that he would be a risky draft choice.

[dukelifer]

I agree with Kedsy.

Maybe I am being a bit too nice, but put yourself in his shoes and think about how difficult his current situation must be. Can you imagine being rated number one and then finding yourself playing behind a grad student transfer that many praise for having old man YMCA moves?

How humiliating that must feel! I know that when I was his age, I would not have taken it anywhere near as well as he appears to be taking it. It would be really easy for a person in his position to just hang it up, at least mentally. It would be easy to say to oneself, 'whatever... this stuff doesn't even matter... I'm gonna go to the NBA and make a ton of money...'

Instead, he has continued to be a good teammate and has even been supporting Ryan, at least as far as I can tell. That takes an awful lot of maturity, something I was definitely lacking when like was his age, and humility, something that is often missing in young people who are athletically gifted.

As a fan it is sometimes hard to keep this in perspective. I vented a bit yesterday and apologized. I think we have all been surprised that Lively is not Mark Williams with a 3 pointer. He is what he is and Scheyer will need to figure out how best to use him. He is a good dunker. Maybe the guards can help to get him the ball in better spots on drives and dishes.

[dukelifer]

Unfortunately, it's the opposite. He almost HAS to go pro after this year. Current draft boards tell him that if he goes pro this year, he will be a first round draft pick. If he sticks around and doesn't make huge progress in year 2, he would almost certainly not be a first round draft pick, and that decision would cost him millions.

Everyone wants to believe that if they were in his shoes, they would bet on themselves by coming back, work insanely hard, improve their prospects, and make even more dough. But I don't think that's a good business decision. Regardless of how hard he works, coming back has a very high chance of confirming that he would be a risky draft choice.

The NBA also develops kids better these days. The G league gives guys a chance to work on their NBA game which is different than college ball.

[DoubleBlue]

Unfortunately, it's the opposite. He almost HAS to go pro after this year. Current draft boards tell him that if he goes pro this year, he will be a first round draft pick. If he sticks around and doesn't make huge progress in year 2, he would almost certainly not be a first round draft pick, and that decision would cost him millions.

Everyone wants to believe that if they were in his shoes, they would bet on themselves by coming back, work insanely hard, improve their prospects, and make even more dough. But I don't think that's a good business decision. Regardless of how hard he works, coming back has a very high chance of confirming that he would be a risky draft choice.

Isn't that exactly what Mark Williams did... came back for a 2nd year and worked his butt off... it worked out pretty well for him!!

[kshepinthehouse]

The NBA also develops kids better these days. The G league gives guys a chance to work on their NBA game which is different than college ball.

Bingo! Contrary to popular belief the NBA is the best place to get better in the NBA.

[Music man55]

Does Lively remind anyone of Chase Jeter? I remember when Chase came in, he had a big reputation. However, he just couldn’t translate that game at the college level. I recall Chase getting the ball slapped out of his hands alot, and him not being really good at catching passes inside. He was really good at running the floor and was tall and slender built like Derrek. Just wondering if anyone else noticed any simularity?

[Music man55]

Typed previous thread about the Jeter comparison without reading the thread first, but I see it’s already been discussed. Never mind.

[CDu]

Isn't that exactly what Mark Williams did... came back for a 2nd year and worked his butt off... it worked out pretty well for him!!

Williams wasn’t going to be a 1st round pick if he went as a frosh though. Lively still will. It isn’t apples to apples.

[Jeffrey]

Williams wasn’t going to be a 1st round pick if he went as a frosh though. Lively still will. It isn’t apples to apples.

Strongly agree! Risk of another injury, playing another year without pay (excluding tuition), makes it very hard for a 1st rounder to return to school.

[Oriole Way]

Williams wasn’t going to be a 1st round pick if he went as a frosh though. Lively still will. It isn’t apples to apples.

I don't think it's a certainty that Lively will be a 1st round pick if he continues on his current trajectory for the rest of this season. He just doesn't look ready for high-major college basketball. He has very little offensive ability outside of putbacks and dunks, and his foul rate is astronomical. He can't work on improving his game outside of practices if he can't stay on the floor.

Towards the end of the first round, a lot of teams like taking chances on Euro players. And playoff teams drafting towards the end of the first round sometimes like more NBA-ready college players, specialists, or system players (like the Spurs for most of the past couple decades). There will always be teams drafting on potential at all points in the draft, but I think Lively is a case of scouts just getting a player's abilities wrong, or the projection from high school to college/pros just not panning out. It happens - Anthony Bennett and Skal Labissiere (I believe someone mentioned him earlier in this thread or in another recent thread) are examples of that.

[Jeffrey]

I don't think it's a certainty that Lively will be a 1st round pick if he continues on his current trajectory for the rest of this season. He just doesn't look ready for high-major college basketball. He has very little offensive ability outside of putbacks and dunks, and his foul rate is astronomical. He can't work on improving his game outside of practices if he can't stay on the floor.

Towards the end of the first round, a lot of teams like taking chances on Euro players. And playoff teams drafting towards the end of the first round sometimes like more NBA-ready college players, specialists, or system players (like the Spurs for most of the past couple decades). There will always be teams drafting on potential at all points in the draft, but I think Lively is a case of scouts just getting a player's abilities wrong, or the projection from high school to college/pros just not panning out. It happens - Anthony Bennett and Skal Labissiere (I believe someone mentioned him earlier in this thread or in another recent thread) are examples of that.

If they had been in the same draft, I would pick Lively before Jalen Johnson (20th pick). IMO, losers quit on their teammates.

[CDu]

I don't think it's a certainty that Lively will be a 1st round pick if he continues on his current trajectory for the rest of this season. He just doesn't look ready for high-major college basketball. He has very little offensive ability outside of putbacks and dunks, and his foul rate is astronomical. He can't work on improving his game outside of practices if he can't stay on the floor.

Towards the end of the first round, a lot of teams like taking chances on Euro players. And playoff teams drafting towards the end of the first round sometimes like more NBA-ready college players, specialists, or system players (like the Spurs for most of the past couple decades). There will always be teams drafting on potential at all points in the draft, but I think Lively is a case of scouts just getting a player's abilities wrong, or the projection from high school to college/pros just not panning out. It happens - Anthony Bennett and Skal Labissiere (I believe someone mentioned him earlier in this thread or in another recent thread) are examples of that.

But teams don’t draft on what the player can do today. They will have 4 years to see that player develop. And guys with Lively’s length and athleticism don’t grow on trees.

He will go in the first round on potential alone. Just like Labissiere went on potential alone.

[dukeinla]

Does Lively remind anyone of Chase Jeter? I remember when Chase came in, he had a big reputation. However, he just couldn’t translate that game at the college level. I recall Chase getting the ball slapped out of his hands alot, and him not being really good at catching passes inside. He was really good at running the floor and was tall and slender built like Derrek. Just wondering if anyone else noticed any simularity?

this is the exact comparison. On the dbr podcast they were comparing him Lively to Giles and I was thinking they were wrong and the more apt comparison was to Derek Jeter

[Matches]

this is the exact comparison. On the dbr podcast they were comparing him Lively to Giles and I was thinking they were wrong and the more apt comparison was to Derek Jeter

Lively seems a little too tall to play SS. I’d want him at 1B.

[UrinalCake]

Does Lively remind anyone of Chase Jeter?

There’s definitely similarities there. I also get some Chris Burgess vibes at least in terms of being a #1 ranked center who some were already questioning whether the ranking was deserved (I believe Burgess actually fell in the rankings just before arriving) who wasn’t able to immediately adjust to the college game. I will say that Lively’s effort and attitude appears to be there, so that’s totally different from what we have heard about Burgess (and his parents). Bolden, Jeter, Sanders, maybe even go back to guys like Michael Thompson and Shavlik Randolph - it can be hard for big men especially to make the jump.

[jcannon]

All points posted this far (lack of strength, positive attitude, timing on blocks, etc.) are all spot on in my very humble opinion. I believe the biggest issues for Lively on offense is that we have no guard who can get into the lane and feed him. Even when they run the high P&R, it feels like the guards can’t get into the lane and put Lively in a spot to receive a lob. Could be related to a soft screen, defense adjusting, or the guards just not being skilled in this facet of the game. We have seen that Lively doesn’t have the post move set to score around the basket on his own, so his only offense will come from lobs and putbacks for the time being. Until our guard play improves to the point where they draw enough attention to get Lively a lob over the top, we may struggle. Hopefully the emergence of Whitehead, and his ability to get into lane, can ultimately help with what I see is the biggest issue on the offensive end for Lively.

[Jeffrey]

I will say that Lively’s effort and attitude appears to be there, so that’s totally different from what we have heard about Burgess (and his parents).

IMO, effort and attitude are as important as talent and skill! Thus, I would invest (if, I had one ) a 1st round pick on Lively and would have passed on Jalen Johnson.

[sagegrouse]

FWIW, Chase Jeter loved Duke University, as in academics, but did not like the Duke basketball program. He has said as much. He was All-ACC in academics, but got out of Durham after three semesters IIRC.

[Dukehky]

this is the exact comparison. On the dbr podcast they were comparing him Lively to Giles and I was thinking they were wrong and the more apt comparison was to Derek Jeter

He's actually Casey Sanders--who I believe was the highest ranked prospect in that recruiting class for Duke that included Dunleavy, j-will, boozer, etc.

Jeter was like 18 or so. I didn't expect nearly as much from Chase as I did from Lively.

Hope everyone figures things out to get him on the Court and participating more.

[CDu]

He's actually Casey Sanders--who I believe was the highest ranked prospect in that recruiting class for Duke that included Dunleavy, j-will, boozer, etc.

Jeter was like 18 or so. I didn't expect nearly as much from Chase as I did from Lively.

Hope everyone figures things out to get him on the Court and participating more.

Nah, Sanders (#16) was behind Boozer (#9) and Williams (#3). He was ahead of Dunleavy (#26), though some of that was because Dunleavy was a late growth-spurt from being an exceptional recruit.

Lively has some similarities to Sanders for sure. Buoth are/were long, lean, and excellent run/jump athletes. But Sanders was unable to play with any sort of contact. He would regularly crumple to the floor on contact. Probably because he was 20-30lbs lighter than Lively as a frosh.

Lively is better than Sanders. But I agree that is a better comp than Jeter, who was more offensive-minded, less athletic, and not as tall/long. Not that Sanders was 7’1” with a 7’9” wingspan either, but he was closer stylistically for sure.