Dereck Lively II

[grateful_duke]

What's going on with Dereck? Is he still dealing with the leg injury? When he gets minutes, he doesn't look nearly as good as we all anticipated. The potential is clearly there, something just seems off. Maybe dealing with lingering injury issues or is he just not living up to the hype?

I think we all had some lofty expectations for Dereck and I really hope he can turn it around not only for the team, but for his career moving forward. With that being said, he may go down with Jalen Johnson as one of the most disappointing blue chip freshmen in team history.

[rsvman]

While I will agree that I had hoped for more out of Lively, I will tell you things about him that I really like. He is always engaged in the game. He plays hard. He seems to enjoy playing. He seems like a good teammate who understands that basketball is a team sport. He is tall. He can jump well. He plays hard on defense.

For these reasons, he is not and will not be a Jalen Johnson. The comparison is insulting to Lively, in my opinion.

[CDu]

What's going on with Dereck? Is he still dealing with the leg injury? When he gets minutes, he doesn't look nearly as good as we all anticipated. The potential is clearly there, something just seems off. Maybe dealing with lingering injury issues or is he just not living up to the hype?

I think we all had some lofty expectations for Dereck and I really hope he can turn it around not only for the team, but for his career moving forward. With that being said, he may go down with Jalen Johnson as one of the most disappointing blue chip freshmen in team history.

It isn’t injury related.

The transition to college is tougher for bigs than for guards/wings. And Lively’s game is defense, not offense. He was always going to look unimpressive on offense, but between foul trouble and the poor guard play, what minimal offensive game he has has been further eliminated. When the guards were playing better, he could get 2-3 dunks per game. But with them struggling, the opportunity for lobs and easy dunks has disappeared.

He has been an elite defender (defensive box score plus/minus of 6.9!), but foul trouble and the lack of offense has limited his minutes on that end.

Hopefully he can figure out the foul trouble. If he can, he can be a game-changing shotblocker. I wouldn’t expect him to become any sort of offensive threat though, and that should never have been the expectation.

While he hasn’t had a great season, I wouldn’t categorize him with Jalen Johnson (who was productive when he played but quit the team) at all.

[Bob Green]

With that being said, he may go down with Jalen Johnson as one of the most disappointing blue chip freshmen in team history.

Johnson quit. Lively hasn’t. Apples and oranges.

[Bluedog]

It isn’t injury related.

The transition to college is tougher for bigs than for guards/wings. And Lively’s game is defense, not offense. He was always going to look unimpressive on offense, but between foul trouble and the poor guard play, what minimal offensive game he has has been further eliminated. When the guards were playing better, he could get 2-3 dunks per game. But with them struggling, the opportunity for lobs and easy dunks has disappeared.

He has been an elite defender (defensive box score plus/minus of 6.9!), but foul trouble and the lack of offense has limited his minutes on that end.

Hopefully he can figure out the foul trouble. If he can, he can be a game-changing shotblocker. I wouldn’t expect him to become any sort of offensive threat though, and that should never have been the expectation.

While he hasn’t had a great season, I wouldn’t categorize him with Jalen Johnson (who was productive when he played but quit the team) at all.

I think most college basketball followers (myself included) don't follow high school basketball THAT closely, and thus see someone ranked #2 in the country and have an expectation that that player has some sort of offensive game. Maybe they shouldn't, but it also seems hard to believe that evaluators would rank someone so high if there is no expectation for them to be solid on the offensive end as that is a pretty critical part of basketball.

Having said that, I wholeheartedly agree with rsvman's post. He seems to be trying hard and being a good teammate. I hope we seem him flourish and continue to improve at Duke.

[CDu]

I think most college basketball followers (myself included) don't follow high school basketball THAT closely, and thus see someone ranked #2 in the country and have an expectation that that player has some sort of offensive game. Maybe they shouldn't, but it also seems hard to believe that evaluators would rank someone so high if there is no expectation for them to be solid on the offensive end as that is a pretty critical part of basketball.

Having said that, I wholeheartedly agree with rsvman's post. He seems to be trying hard and being a good teammate. I hope we seem him flourish and continue to improve at Duke.

It is really hard to assess how good an offensive player a big will be going from high school to college. But Lively averaged just 14 ppg in high school, and under 9 ppg in the EYBL. By comparison, Mark Williams averaged 19.7 ppg as a junior (he basically lost his senior year to COVID) and 14.8 ppg in the EYBL.

I am guessing most of those points for Lively came on dunks. He probably took and made an occasional jump hook or 15 footer or 3 (because the best players in high school shoot a lot regardless of their true capability), which would be enough for folks to dream on the possibility of offense. But I would guess that like 75-80% of his FGs in high school were dunks. And it is really hard to know exactly how much of that will translate moving up. Or how quickly it will translate.

Where Lively excelled though was on defense. He was an elite shotblocker and game changer on that end. That, combined with the class being a bit weaker than usual, combined with his length and athleticism and thus rim-running potential, is what got him rated so high. But foul trouble has limited his minutes, and the lack of a playmaker able to utilize his rim running even to the 6-8 ppg range has us where we are.

The foul trouble could get better, and if it does he possesses truly elite defensive impact. But the offense almost certainly isn’t coming.

[Bluedog]

It is really hard to assess how good an offensive player a big will be going from high school to college. But Lively averaged just 14 ppg in high school, and under 9 ppg in the EYBL. By comparison, Mark Williams averaged 19.7 ppg as a junior (he basically lost his senior year to COVID) and 14.8 ppg in the EYBL.

I am guessing most of those points for Lively came on dunks. He probably took and made an occasional jump hook or 15 footer or 3 (because the best players in high school shoot a lot regardless of their true capability), which would be enough for folks to dream on the possibility of offense. But I would guess that like 75-80% of his FGs in high school were dunks. And it is really hard to know exactly how much of that will translate moving up. Or how quickly it will translate.

Where Lively excelled though was on defense. He was an elite shotblocker and game changer on that end. That, combined with the class being a bit weaker than usual, combined with his length and athleticism and thus rim-running potential, is what got him rated so high. But foul trouble has limited his minutes, and the lack of a playmaker able to utilize his rim running even to the 6-8 ppg range has us where we are.

The foul trouble could get better, and if it does he possesses truly elite defensive impact. But the offense almost certainly isn’t coming.

Appreciate the additional context and information.

Here's the scouting report for Dereck from 247:
"The potential and athletic gifts of Dereck Lively are beyond tremendous. He has terrific athleticism for his size as he elevates off the floor well and is aggressive in how he utilizes his springs to protect the rim and control the glass on a consistent basis. One factor that truly stands out to scouts at the highest of levels is his commitment to being a center and playing as such. He values rebounding, sprinting the floor, and keeping his motor running in a high gear. He is dangerous in the screen and roll game and gives across Tyson Chandler vibes due to his length and productivity in the shot blocking and rebounding categories. However, with his budding skills on the perimeter, Lively projects as a big man prospect who could be more of a threat offensively than Chandler was."
https://247sports.com/player/dereck-lively-ii-46084216/

[CDu]

Appreciate the additional context and information.

Here's the scouting report for Dereck from 247:
"The potential and athletic gifts of Dereck Lively are beyond tremendous. He has terrific athleticism for his size as he elevates off the floor well and is aggressive in how he utilizes his springs to protect the rim and control the glass on a consistent basis. One factor that truly stands out to scouts at the highest of levels is his commitment to being a center and playing as such. He values rebounding, sprinting the floor, and keeping his motor running in a high gear. He is dangerous in the screen and roll game and gives across Tyson Chandler vibes due to his length and productivity in the shot blocking and rebounding categories. However, with his budding skills on the perimeter, Lively projects as a big man prospect who could be more of a threat offensively than Chandler was."
https://247sports.com/player/dereck-lively-ii-46084216/

Yeah, Tyson Chandler is a near perfect comp. And like Lively, Chandler was thought to have perimeter-shooting potential in high school. The perimeter shot never became a consistent option for Chandler. It might one day for Lively, though almost certainly not while he is at Duke. And in all likelihood, it probably won’t ever come, just like it didn’t for Chandler.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, Tyson Chandler is a near perfect comp. And like Lively, Chandler was thought to have perimeter-shooting potential in high school. The perimeter shot never became a consistent option for Chandler. It might one day for Lively, though almost certainly not while he is at Duke. And in all likelihood, it probably won’t ever come, just like it didn’t for Chandler.

The NBA is a different game and perhaps better suited to his length and bounce. He is not going to create his own shot at Duke and needs better guards to get him the ball in positions to score. That all said- he has to get much stronger. We may see Lively figure it out by the end of the season- can only hope.

[Jeffrey]

Johnson quit. Lively hasn’t. Apples and oranges.

Apples and prunes.

[Dukehk]

What on earth is going on with this young man.

[Sixthman]

My hope for Lively is that he will focus on three things: (1) protecting the rim on defense (he does this well already); (2) grabbing every rebound in sight; he can do better - strangely, as good as his timing is on blocks, he seems a little off on the boards, and he gets a lot of balls stripped. These shortcomings can be addressed with coaching and practice; and (3) if he doesn't get the defensive rebound, run -- be the first big man down the court. He can run. He seems pretty effective in transition and I've liked him a lot in the high post. He's effective at executing the roll on the pick and roll, and I like him passing from the high post into other bigs or cutters. My bet would be on him contributing significantly more -- this year.

[jipops]

Lively just doesn’t have the skill nor talent to significantly compete at this level right now. It just is what it is. Seems bizarre to me that a guy with almost no skill on offense would be the #1 recruit, but I guess the experts figured a 7-1 guy with his mobility would have an instant impact. Not the case obviously as his ability to do work on the boards is nearly non-existent as well. I think this is just a case of evaluators getting it wrong, happens sometimes. None of this will stop Lively from moving on after this season though. Some nba team will take a chance in the 2nd round or sign him to get a look in summer league.

Remember Chase Jeter was the #11 recruit and he was never able to become a reliable contributer. It’s not uncommon for recruiting experts to get it wrong on bigs.

[DukieInBrasil]

My hope for Lively is that he will focus on three things: (1) protecting the rim on defense (he does this well already); (2) grabbing every rebound in sight; he can do better - strangely, as good as his timing is on blocks, he seems a little off on the boards, and he gets a lot of balls stripped. These shortcomings can be addressed with coaching and practice; and (3) if he doesn't get the defensive rebound, run -- be the first big man down the court. He can run. He seems pretty effective in transition and I've liked him a lot in the high post. He's effective at executing the roll on the pick and roll, and I like him passing from the high post into other bigs or cutters. My bet would be on him contributing significantly more -- this year.

the one time Duke tried that today it was a terrible pass and was easily stolen. When they tried that with him vs FSU it was also a terrible pass that was stolen. I didn't watch the NCSU game, thankfully.

[arnie]

Lively just doesn’t have the skill nor talent to significantly compete at this level right now. It just is what it is. Seems bizarre to me that a guy with almost no skill on offense would be the #1 recruit, but I guess the experts figured a 7-1 guy with his mobility would have an instant impact. Not the case obviously as his ability to do work on the boards is nearly non-existent as well. I think this is just a case of evaluators getting it wrong, happens sometimes. None of this will stop Lively from moving on after this season though. Some nba team will take a chance in the 2nd round or sign him to get a look in summer league.

Remember Chase Jeter was the #11 recruit and he was never able to become a reliable contributer. It’s not uncommon for recruiting experts to get it wrong on bigs.

Watching a few HS games last year, the Jeter comparison to Lively came up. Interestingly, Jeter’s first year points and rebounds per minute are nearly identical to Lively’s (Dereck has played nearly double the minutes). I think Lively is a better defender, but both players seemed to run the floor similarly. We hope Dereck’s numbers/contribution improve over 2nd half.

[jv001]

Sometimes Derrick seems to have Casey Sanders' hands on rebounds.

GoDuke!

[JayZee]

I agree that he seems to have a great attitude, staying engaged and cheering even when on the bench.

I think his biggest problem is strength. He just looks overmatched inside. And it shows up most in his challenges rebounding.

[hallcity]

Is Lively still projecting as a first round pick?

[Bluedog]

Is Lively still projecting as a first round pick?

Yes, most project him in the 20-25 range. I believe he was always projected fairly low for a #1 recruit, but certainly the projection has continued to slip.

CBS says: "[The] hope is that the light flicks on with him eventually. (This season would be preferred, but he'll be a first-rounder no matter if it does or not.)"

[dukelifer]

Yes, most project him in the 20-25 range. I believe he was always projected fairly low for a #1 recruit, but certainly the projection has continued to slip.

CBS says: "[The] hope is that the light flicks on with him eventually. (This season would be preferred, but he'll be a first-rounder no matter if it does or not.)"

With his measurables- he is going first round and into a development program. He could pay dividends in 2-3 years or not get renewed.