I’m not knowledgeable about horse racing but I was at opening day for Keeneland on Friday. Knew nothing about the horses which explains how I ended down $10 for the day. Really nice track and fun time though.
I’m not knowledgeable about horse racing but I was at opening day for Keeneland on Friday. Knew nothing about the horses which explains how I ended down $10 for the day. Really nice track and fun time though.
At the Bluegrass Stakes, Tapit Trice confirmed his top 5 status by winning:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644814941113970689
The triple was the top 3 horses. Verifying and Blazing Sevesn may show at the KYD.
At the Santa Anita Derby, favorite Practical Move was life and death winning by a nose:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644821585759723521
Mandarin Hero (Japan) and Skinner rounded out the top 3.
At Aqueduct, Lord Miles (by Curlin) won by a nose in the finish of the day IMHO, and paid $120:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644833898520535040
Hit Show and Dreamlike hung in there tough.
These 3 races were unbelievably close. I think this makes Forte' an even bigger favorite on derby day.
For 3YO fillies working toward the Kentucky Oaks:
Promiseher America won as the longest shot on the board in the Gazelle at Aqueduct:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644755467904880640
The easiest 3YO winner of the day, in an open race, of those contending in the derby/oaks preps, was Faiza in the Santa Anita Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644864465207431168
Undefeated, winner by 6, is trained by Bob Baffert and will not be going to Kentucky.
If you wanted a stretch throwdown, here is the Echo Eddie Stakes (for 3YO CA statebreds) at Santa Anita:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644834028061876226
Kangaroo Court and Bus Buzz put on a real show.
If you like dominating performance, Ceiling Crusher's 15 length win in the Evening Jewel (3YOF CA breds) qualifies:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644787133364994048
I wouldn't be surprised if this is the highest Beyer of the day for 3YOs.
So now, only the Lexington Stakes, with only 40 KYD points total, is to be contested next weekend before the owners have to make their choices.
Here is the latest point standings:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...cky-derby/2023
Continuar has a guaranteed spot in the starting gate because of wins on the Japanese A circuit, so there are 19 spots left in the starting gate.
A horse like Manadarin Hero will not get in unless there are a half dozen defections.
No Beyer Figures available at the moment for the above races.
Larry
DevilHorse
Beyer Figures are in for Saturday:
100 - Practical Move
99 - Tapit Trice
95 - Kangaroo Court
93 - Lord Miles
89 - Faiza (SA Oaks) - Black Eyed Susan candidate??
83 - Defining Purpose (Ashland)
For comparison, Forte's most recent Beyer was 95
Larry
DevilHorse
82 - Promiseher America (Gazelle)
The Lexington Stakes will be the last of the KYD point providing prep races. There are no more KYO prep races.
At Keeneland is the Lexington Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; April 15, 2023; Keeneland - Race 9 ; PPs ]
Interesting race. The supposed favorites do not have the best speed grades. Arabian Lion (this is not Arabian Knight) has high speed grades, but he doesn't hit the board. Disarm finished 2nd to Kingsbarn in the Louisiana Derby, but he still has only won a maiden race. An inexperienced horse like First Mission has 2 races and only lost in its first race to Bishop's Bay (a very good horse). Even Demolition Duke has a shot as he has only lost to Bishop's Bay as well (in a slower race). Empirestrikesfirst has a top speed number, but that was only a maiden race. You can get a price in this race.
Speaking of Kinsbarn, he will be looking for a new rider in the KYD because Flavian Prat selected Angel Of Empire to be his derby mount.
Another interesting race, for older mares, is the Apple Blossom:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...2/summary.html
[ URL above; April 15, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 11 ; PPs ]
Round 2 of Clairiere vs. Secret Oath. Secret Oath won the last duel. Last year Secret Oath was strong early (won Kentucky Oaks) and then tailed off. Clairiere hit her stride in June. I expect Clairiere will be the slight favorite, but Secret Oath to win again.
Larry
DevilHorse
I always question the speed figures of California runners. So in your summary I would prefer Tapit Thrice to Practical Move. So far the races at Keeneland, which admittedly are few, support this analysis. Speed figures or not, Forte has been the most impressive horse.
Last edited by -jk; 04-14-2023 at 10:55 AM. Reason: Fix quote tag
In the past 20 or so years, Rich Strike, Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Country House, Giacomo, Charismatic were all huge underdogs that won the KYD. Some of these horses proved that it was no fluke (Super Saver is a good sire, Charismatic won the Preakness too). However, the derby is nuts.
I'm not the only one who feels that Practical Joke is expected to be limited as a sire, but go figure.
Larry
DevilHorse
Last edited by -jk; 04-14-2023 at 10:54 AM. Reason: Fix quote tag
Today is the $600,000 Makers Mark Turf mile at Keeneland. Possibly the best turf miler in the world, Modern Games, is coming over from England to run. He’s a Group 1 winner in Europe, a Grade 1 winner in the US, and the reigning 1 mile Turf Champion from last year’s Breeders Cup. His jockey, William Buick, one of the best in the world is also coming to ride him. Quite unusual to have such a high quality race on a Friday in the US. But Keeneland where I fell for horse racing is quite unusual. To my knowledge only Keeneland and Saratoga attract crowds like it was still 1950 in this country. And the folks attending will be dressed to the nines. Keeneland should be on your bucket list. Today is also college day, giving away a lot of scholarship money. Keeneland is a charitable organization, although I was never able to deduct my losers for tax purposes.
For those who want the PPs for this turf race
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Friday - April 14, 2023; Keeneland - Race 9; pps ]
I've been to Keeneland, but not on a race day. I was there for a high-priced TBred auction. Ran into D. Wayne Lukas at his height. Oddly he didn't stop to exchange pleasantries
Larry
DevilHorse
Chez Pierre upsets Modern Games:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1646988130644557825
Perhaps an overconfident ride on Modern Games as he was last on the backstretch, had to go wide, and ran out of runway while picking up all but the winner.
I noticed Munny's Gold on the workout tab yesterday. Very good to see this undefeated daughter of Munnings is not injured that badly. One of the exciting TBreds racing these days.
Don't forget the Lexington Stakes today. Disarm is one of the favorites and needs to finish in the top 3 to get enough points to start in the KYD (in 3 weeks). BTW, the Lexington Stakes is named after the great racehorse and progenator Lexington (from the late 1800s). Of course the horse Lexington was named after the town, so can you consider the Lexington Stakes being named after the town? I don't think so. Lexington won 6 of 7 starts and led the Sires in money won 16 times; outrageous. They should name a town after him in Kentucky! Apparently Lexington was also Ulysses Grant's favorite horse!! Grant loved race horses. He went to Buffalo, NY once and drove the great trotter Dexter. Dexter was a world record holding son of Hambletonian, but his biggest accomplishment was being the model for all of those trotting horse weather veins:
https://www.1stdibs.com/buy/dexter-horse-weathervane/
Larry
DevilHorse
IMHO, if the horse is in good shape after the race, they'll take a shot.
Some people are willing to throw the $25k down just to have their name/horse on the Kentucky Derby Race program. Remember Rich Strike last year? He was an also eligible and scratched into the race. 3 weeks is not terrible for these horses. Remember the Preakness is 2 weeks after the KYD and the Belmont is 3 weeks after that.
Larry
DevilHorse
Arabian Lion was pretty good eh? But not as good as First Mission in the Lexington Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1647350438130507776
Arabian Lion did hit the board, but almost hit the inside horse. First Mission was almost mugged in the stretch by a green Arabian Lion, but showed the guts to come through a small hole. That's not a small thing for a young horse to endure. Good thing Luis Saez is a very aggressive rider or he might have pulled back on First Mission to avoid damage. I thought Disarm lost a little ground in the stretch. No Beyer yet but the track record for 1 1/16 is 3 seconds faster than this race. Last year's rendition was won by (the immortal) Tawny Port who finished 7th in the KYD.
Here is one person's view of the best derby prep races:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...prep_races_123
More to come over the next few weeks.
Good thing I had the quinella in the Apple Blossom (not):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1647380546308419584
Clairieire showed great grit at running down Secret Oath in the stretch. Perhaps Secret Oath moved too early, but the pace did not seem unreasonable (1:12 for 6f!); the race was just 50 feet too long for her.
A filly made a snappy debut yesterday and was tagged as one to watch:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1647326383784493056
Scylla seemed relaxed and capable in winning her debut. She is a full sister to Tacitus (won Wood, 2nd Belmont), and for those keeping (pedigree) score, she has the 3 top broodmare sire grandsons of Secretariat in her pedigree (Gone West, Storm Cat, A.P. Indy).
Something for TheDevilMadeMeDoIt:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3NFn5mWQAAWO3x.jpg
Guess who? (EQ).
Larry
DevilHorse
Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-16-2023 at 08:52 AM.
Arabian Lion looks to me like a horse who would be best at 7 furlongs, maybe a mile. In his short career he has only won one time. He ran better than I expected but still lost in the final yards.
Scylla looked good, another Tapit with a mom who won $2.7 million. That’s some great breeding. Trainer Bill Mott seemed pretty high on her. On Equibase she received a 105 speed figure. That was probably the last time you get 5/2 on her unless she throws in a clunker along the way.
My favorite bet of the day was Barber Road/Principe D’Oro exacta. They were the two favorites and still paid $25.82 on a $2 bet. I bet a little more than usual, now sorry I didn’t really load up on it.
I’m down 18% for the meet, which for Keeneland with horses coming in from all over the country is good for me. I was going to take today off, but with gloomy weather here I figure to keep at it. I know the weather will be much cooler today in Lexington, not sure about any precipitation.
On the Apple Blossom D. Wayne Lucas said something prophetic before the race. When asked if he liked the small field, he said he would have preferred 10 horses, otherwise your horse may be forced to do something she doesn’t really want to do. In this case Secret Oath was forced to chase the front runner a little so that one didn’t steal the race. Secret Oath did that and didn’t have quite enough left to hold off Clariere. Hopefully those two stay healthy and can compete the rest of the year. The Apple Blossom has been the premier Fillies and Mares race the last few years. Monomoy Girl, Letruska and now Clariere. One side note, Steve Asmussen is winless at Keeneland this spring, but is destroying Oaklawn Park.
From a horse racing perspective, and weather wise, this is my favorite time of the year.
Hey fidel,
PPs are out for Friday's Keeneland card:
Here's the Doubledogdare Stakes PP:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Friday April 21, 2023; Keeneland - Race 9; pps ]
It looks like a throw down between Green Up and Interstatedaydream. These mares raced last August, with Green Up posing her best speed figure; but this was not Interstatedaydream's finest hour. Interstatedaydream won the Black Eyed Susan, and more recently finished just 2 lengths behind Secret Oath and Clairiere in the Azeri. I might lean toward Interstatedaydream in this one.
Here are a few URLs that have most of the other races on the card friday; look for Friday's date and Keeneland:
Races 2, 7, 8:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Race 1:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...L/2012/summary.
Race 10:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
Race 5:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Race 4:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Race 6:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...4/summary.html
Good Luck and have fun!
Larry
DevilHorse
OK, let's try again with Saturday 4/22/2023. Look for the date, Keeneland, and the posted race number:
Race 1:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...1/summary.html
Race 2, 5, 8, 9:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Race 3:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...7/summary.html
Race 4, 10:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
Race 6:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Race 7:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
All of Saturday's Keeneland Past Performances (PPs) can be obtained/viewed with the pointers above.
If you need a key to the information on the Brisnet PPs, use this link:
http://www.brisnet.com/content/brisn...-performances/
If this looks like too much work, you can find many dubious opinions online when Saturday comes around. For example, this link should have something:
https://racingdudes.com/track/keeneland/
Good Luck.
Larry
DevilHorse
Great work. I’ve done the Racing Form thing but it’s been awhile.
I’ll report back Monday.