Horse Racing 2023

[DevilHorse]

An interesting article passed by my eyeballs this morning; it contained the following:

A sports betting bill that also contains language that will
legalize racing in North Carolina was passed by the North
Carolina State Senate Wednesday and now heads back to the
House for a final vote.

Here is the URL to the article:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...lina-advances/

Anyone here like horses and been to the state of North Carolina? I thought so.

If this bill passes the NC House, the governor is expected to sign it.

I know it is sports betting, but the door is open to create a track. Apparently there is no provision involving potential connections for any potential track with a Casino (an obvious source of funds for a smaller track). Don't we have some ex-Duke basketball players who start businesses and build things?

I know that NC has some training facilities for standardbreds (i.e., Pinehurst). So this could be a natural fit. Probably would have to be near a big population center near Charlotte. There would need to be a lot of supporting infrastructure around this (i.e., farms to produce the hay and straw that horses need daily, perhaps horse farms to start an in-state siring program (NC Statebreds). Some incentives from the state to get a track rolling (i.e., tax breaks or subsidize some races to attract horses that people would want to see).

The nearest race tracks to Durham are in the Washington DC area. That's only 4 hours away, but a tougher round trip in a day. This will be an evolving story.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

As some of you may be aware of, an extraordinary number of horses have died at Churchill Downs (race/training related) meet. They have been studying this and I think they're no closer to understanding why that is.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...to-ellis-park/

And so, they will no longer race at Churchill Downs after this week, for the remainder of the spring meet (till mid-July). The races will be transferred to Ellis Park. Ellis Park is about 134 miles west of Louisville.

Santa Anita had to deal with a crisis like this last year.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

An interesting article passed by my eyeballs this morning; it contained the following:

A sports betting bill that also contains language that will
legalize racing in North Carolina was passed by the North
Carolina State Senate Wednesday and now heads back to the
House for a final vote.

Here is the URL to the article:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...lina-advances/

Anyone here like horses and been to the state of North Carolina? I thought so.

If this bill passes the NC House, the governor is expected to sign it.

I know it is sports betting, but the door is open to create a track. Apparently there is no provision involving potential connections for any potential track with a Casino (an obvious source of funds for a smaller track). Don't we have some ex-Duke basketball players who start businesses and build things?

I know that NC has some training facilities for standardbreds (i.e., Pinehurst). So this could be a natural fit. Probably would have to be near a big population center near Charlotte. There would need to be a lot of supporting infrastructure around this (i.e., farms to produce the hay and straw that horses need daily, perhaps horse farms to start an in-state siring program (NC Statebreds). Some incentives from the state to get a track rolling (i.e., tax breaks or subsidize some races to attract horses that people would want to see).

The nearest race tracks to Durham are in the Washington DC area. That's only 4 hours away, but a tougher round trip in a day. This will be an evolving story.

Larry
DevilHorse

There are some cautionary tales with new race tracks. A very nice track was built in Alabama probably forty years ago. The President of Churchill Downs, Lynn Stone, was lured away to manage it. The track was a total failure. I think it lasted less than five years. Colonial Downs in Virginia was built a little later. It too ultimately closed. Churchill Downs bought it and reopened a couple of years ago with Historical Horse Racing machines, slot machines for anyone not from Kentucky.

To my knowledge the only new tracks built in the last few years are attached to casinos. I can’t imagine NC approving casinos. Hell, the liquor stores are still state owned. Another irony in a state where the private sector always knows best.

On the issue of Churchill moving the remainder of its meet to near Evansville, Indiana, the horsemen are not happy. Churchill was also paying purse money to all entries even the horses who ran last. They became concerned horsemen were running unfit horses so the purse structure has changed to only pay purse money to the top five finishers.

[DevilHorse]

There are some cautionary tales with new race tracks. A very nice track was built in Alabama probably forty years ago. The President of Churchill Downs, Lynn Stone, was lured away to manage it. The track was a total failure. I think it lasted less than five years. Colonial Downs in Virginia was built a little later. It too ultimately closed. Churchill Downs bought it and reopened a couple of years ago with Historical Horse Racing machines, slot machines for anyone not from Kentucky.

To my knowledge the only new tracks built in the last few years are attached to casinos. I can’t imagine NC approving casinos. Hell, the liquor stores are still state owned. Another irony in a state where the private sector always knows best.

On the issue of Churchill moving the remainder of its meet to near Evansville, Indiana, the horsemen are not happy. Churchill was also paying purse money to all entries even the horses who ran last. They became concerned horsemen were running unfit horses so the purse structure has changed to only pay purse money to the top five finishers.

I'd be interested to know what the relationship is between the 'thought process' for people who like race cars vs. horse racing. When I think of Charlotte I think of NASCAR. Would these types of folks be attracted to horse racing/wagering?

I think there was also a race track (harness track) that started 20 years ago in Georgia. I hadn't heard of it since the inaugural season.

While I was around college age, a quarter horse track named Parr Meadows was built in Yaphank, NY. New York likes horse racing, and Belmont/Aqueduct and Yonkers/Roosevelt Raceway were going great at the time. Parr Meadows was built way out on Long Island in Suffolk county; they didn't have the population to draw on. They started off with huge purses, and TV exposure (OTB existed then); big guns in the quarter horse world came to race. But for a number of reasons the project failed.

There are enough examples of what not to do, so a new track would have to be based on sound business principles.

Was anybody interested in the Epsom Derby this morning?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

There is a buzz horse emerging. A 3YO filly named Scylla won her 2nd race (she's 2 for 2). Both won in impressive style:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1664731259439034369

Scylla is by Tapit and is a full sister to Tacitus.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Slim pickings again this weekend, preparing us for a big weekend in a week (i.e., the Belmont Stakes and loads of other stakes).

In the meantime, here are a few races with interesting participants:

All of these races are Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Race 6 is the Aristides, named after the first winner of the KYD in 1875:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 3, 2023; Churchill Downs - Race 6; PPs ]
Some decent sprinters here. Tejano Twist finished 3rd most recently to Cody's Wish. Sibelius looks to be in shape too.

Race 8 is the Shawnee for older mares:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...H/9999/summary.
[ URL above; Saturday June 3, 2023; Churchill Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Pauline's Pearl has the back class. Frost Point is having a good year so far. Idiomatic has speed.

Race 10 is the Blame stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 3, 2023; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Rattle N Roll and Pioneer Of Medina are the bigger named horses and have the higher speed. Rattle N Roll seems particularly sharp.


BTW, Saratoga opens July 13th.

Larry
DevilHorse

Gunite took the Aristides:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1665080313536565248
The argument for Gunite is that this was a horse for the course.
Hadn't heard much from the Gun Runners lately.

Idiomatic went to the front and never looked back in the Shawnee:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1665093419839139840
Speed loose on the lead angle.


Rattle N Roll overcame some traffic problems to pull ahead in the final strides:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1665109738093420544
Watch the red cap squeek through on the inside at the head of the stretch.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Yesterday was the 100 year anniversary of a jockey who won a horse race, after he was dead:

100 years ago, June 4, 1923, jockey Frank Hayes suffered a lethal heart attack in a Belmont Park race. Despite being dead, he remained in the saddle as his mount crossed the finish line to win by a head, thus becoming the first and only jockey to have won a race after he died.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMb4tUM6iQo

Oh my.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

We will have 3 days of excellent racing, mostly at Belmont.

On Friday will be the Acorn for 3YO fillies (3YOF), and a bunch of top notch turf races (don't expect me to provide much commentary on these).

On Saturday we have a great card at Belmont with.. The Belmont Stakes. There's a bunch of other top stakes races too.

On Sunday, there is the Matt Wynn at Ellis Park (used to be scheduled for CD), and the start of the 2YO stakes season with the Astoria and Tremont Stakes at Belmont.

As many of you may know, there is no 'Triple Crown' for fillies per se'.
There is a Triple Tiara, which starts with the Acorn Stakes, but does not include the Kentucky Oaks or the Black Eyed Susan. The Triple Tiara is a New York based concept with the latter 2 races being the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama Stakes (both of which are run at Saratoga). Frankly, the Kentucky Oaks needs to be in any filly triple crown; the Alabama (filly equivalent of the Travers) is also a stronger race than the CCA Oaks and the Acorn. OK, so there are 5 filly Triple Crown races; that's not all bad.
So let's get it started with Friday.



The headline dirt event is for 3YOF in the Acorn (start the of the Triple Tiara):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; June 9, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Interesting race with top rated fillies Pretty Mischievous and Munny's Gold. We also have a rising star like Goodgirl Badhabits. Accede also has credibility. Pretty Mischievous is your Kentucky Oaks winner, but in the recent trend, this horse skipped the Black Eyed Susan and is here 5 weeks later. Munny's Gold failed to win her last (7f) race, but showed the right stuff in fighting till the end. Goodgirl Badhabits does not look as good as Munny's Gold, on paper, but you can't fault her eye popping victories so far. These fillies can all improve over their last race; Munny's Gold will be trying a route for the first time.

For you turfers, the Just A Game and New York Stakes are available at this URL:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
The Belmont Gold Cup and the Intercontinental are available on this URL:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Folks,

Here is an interesting set of compiled statistics on the rate of horse deaths (during races) based on surface:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...y-the-numbers/

Interesting that synthetic surface has the best rate.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Folks,

Here is an interesting set of compiled statistics on the rate of horse deaths (during races) based on surface:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...y-the-numbers/

Interesting that synthetic surface has the best rate.

Larry
DevilHorse

I’m interested in your take on this. I know your not a fan of turf racing, so what about synthetic surface racing?

To those of you who read these posts I recommend you click the link to the Thoroughbred Daily News and while there you check out the opinion piece that the Triple Crown races switch to synthetic surfaces. As one article points out Keeneland tried synthetic but the thought was the quality of horses racing at the track declined so they dug up the synthetic and went back to dirt. Of course that was pre slot machine money and the largest purses in the country. Now the owners, trainers and even jockeys run at Keeneland because of the huge purse money.

The aesthetics of synthetic racing are okay to me. It doesn’t look that different from dirt. From a looks standpoint I actually prefer turf because it is what horses naturally run on in the fields at the horse farms.

The industry does need to recognize that while PETA may not be able to close down racing in Kentucky, it could potentially get the issue on the ballot in California and win. If California ended horse racing would New York be far behind? Kentucky is then the biggest loser. Its breeding industry would be decimated. So the opinion piece calling for Churchill Downs to lead the way on switching to a synthetic track makes a lot of sense.

One other tidbit, the winner of the Derby last year, Rich Strike, and the second place finisher this year, Two Phils’, came into the Derby after running on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, owned by guess who, Churchill Downs.

[DevilHorse]

Folks,

The New York Racing Festival should occur on Saturday. Outside events have been cancelled all over the north east USA. Racing is no exception. I'm guessing that Thursday's races will be cancelled at Belmont; Friday is a maybe and Saturday is probably a go. The stench of burned wood extends from Philadelphia to Connecticut, and the sky is yellow.

At any rate, Saturday's races listed here are all at Belmont:

Race 6 is the Brooklyn Handicap:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 6; PPs ]
The favorite might be Next. Warrant is also capable. Lone Star likes the longer races, but is he fast enough?

Race 7 is the Ogden Phipps for older fillies:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 7; PPs ]
Most of the top horses in the division are hear; Search Results, Secret Oath, Clairiere, and Played Hard. Clairiere has some extra rest.

Race 8 is the Woody Stephens:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 8; PPs ]
General Jim has been sharp; Arabian Lion looks to have the speed. What is Fort Bragg doing here; wasn't he just renamed Fort Liberty?

Race 9 is a turf race; the Jaipur:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Casa Creed attempts to come from behind in this one.

Race 10 is the Met Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Can anyone beat Cody's Wish? Zandon and Repo Rocks will give it a try.

Race 12 is the Belmont Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 12; PPs ]
Forte' reappears and is hopefully in good shape. Tapit Trice tries the 3rd jewel. Angel Of Empire puts on blinkers. National Treasure was tough in the Preakness. I have to go with Forte'; he is rested and I expect, since Pletcher would have run him in the KYD, he has his health back. But Angel of Empire is a wicked closer too. Tapit Trice had some traffic problems in the KYD, so a 9 horse field should be more to his liking. National Treasure may not hit the board with the top 3.

There are other (turf) stakes races on the pages with the pointers. Enjoy.

Larry
DevilHorse


[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 10; PPs ]

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Folks,

The New York Racing Festival should occur on Saturday. Outside events have been cancelled all over the north east USA. Racing is no exception. I'm guessing that Thursday's races will be cancelled at Belmont; Friday is a maybe and Saturday is probably a go. The stench of burned wood extends from Philadelphia to Connecticut, and the sky is yellow.

At any rate, Saturday's races listed here are all at Belmont:

Race 6 is the Brooklyn Handicap:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 6; PPs ]
The favorite might be Next. Warrant is also capable. Lone Star likes the longer races, but is he fast enough?

Race 7 is the Ogden Phipps for older fillies:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 7; PPs ]
Most of the top horses in the division are hear; Search Results, Secret Oath, Clairiere, and Played Hard. Clairiere has some extra rest.

Race 8 is the Woody Stephens:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 8; PPs ]
General Jim has been sharp; Arabian Lion looks to have the speed. What is Fort Bragg doing here; wasn't he just renamed Fort Liberty?

Race 9 is a turf race; the Jaipur:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Casa Creed attempts to come from behind in this one.

Race 10 is the Met Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Can anyone beat Cody's Wish? Zandon and Repo Rocks will give it a try.

Race 12 is the Belmont Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 12; PPs ]
Forte' reappears and is hopefully in good shape. Tapit Trice tries the 3rd jewel. Angel Of Empire puts on blinkers. National Treasure was tough in the Preakness. I have to go with Forte'; he is rested and I expect, since Pletcher would have run him in the KYD, he has his health back. But Angel of Empire is a wicked closer too. Tapit Trice had some traffic problems in the KYD, so a 9 horse field should be more to his liking. National Treasure may not hit the board with the top 3.

There are other (turf) stakes races on the pages with the pointers. Enjoy.

Larry
DevilHorse


[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 10; PPs ]

Forte’s last two works are some of his best this year, so he appears ready. Angel of Empire has been working well at Churchill. My only worry is there doesn’t appear to be much speed unless the long shot II Miracola goes with National Treasure. Perhaps Cox’ other horse Tapit Shoes will be close. Hopefully the exacta of Forte and Angel of Empire pays a little bit. They appear to be the best two, but long distance closers need pace and racing luck. This race has a good field, although I wish Two Phils’ was trying the distance. Maybe Two Phils’ will contest the Travers at Saratoga.

[DevilHorse]

Forte’s last two works are some of his best this year, so he appears ready. Angel of Empire has been working well at Churchill. My only worry is there doesn’t appear to be much speed unless the long shot II Miracola goes with National Treasure. Perhaps Cox’ other horse Tapit Shoes will be close. Hopefully the exacta of Forte and Angel of Empire pays a little bit. They appear to be the best two, but long distance closers need pace and racing luck. This race has a good field, although I wish Two Phils’ was trying the distance. Maybe Two Phils’ will contest the Travers at Saratoga.

Lots of angles in the Belmont.. that's what makes horse racing.

Brad Cox has 3 horses in there. Is Hit Show in to make pace for the Cox closers, or did the owner just want his name on the program. The Belmont is not the kind of race that you want to set a fast pace in because you won't last and nobody (with any sense) will go with you. Belmont has such a long stretch that only a little pace will allow a closer enough time to get up (Birdstone says hello).
https://youtu.be/4gAeTic_9Bo

Il Miracolo is a slow(er) horse; what is he doing in there? Did someone rent him to set the pace?

I imagine that Forte' is ready to tear down the barn, not having run in a while.

I could see Tapit Trice trying to steal the race from the front. He usually likes to be up near the front, and Luis Saez has been known to win on the front end.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I’m interested in your take on this. I know your not a fan of turf racing, so what about synthetic surface racing?

To those of you who read these posts I recommend you click the link to the Thoroughbred Daily News and while there you check out the opinion piece that the Triple Crown races switch to synthetic surfaces. As one article points out Keeneland tried synthetic but the thought was the quality of horses racing at the track declined so they dug up the synthetic and went back to dirt. Of course that was pre slot machine money and the largest purses in the country. Now the owners, trainers and even jockeys run at Keeneland because of the huge purse money.

The aesthetics of synthetic racing are okay to me. It doesn’t look that different from dirt. From a looks standpoint I actually prefer turf because it is what horses naturally run on in the fields at the horse farms.

The industry does need to recognize that while PETA may not be able to close down racing in Kentucky, it could potentially get the issue on the ballot in California and win. If California ended horse racing would New York be far behind? Kentucky is then the biggest loser. Its breeding industry would be decimated. So the opinion piece calling for Churchill Downs to lead the way on switching to a synthetic track makes a lot of sense.

One other tidbit, the winner of the Derby last year, Rich Strike, and the second place finisher this year, Two Phils’, came into the Derby after running on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, owned by guess who, Churchill Downs.

Ad hoc thoughts:

Turf racing tends to have more come from behind races; maybe because turf races are often longer (the ones I watch anyway). Racing from off the pace can be easier on the horse. I think there are fewer 'jumping of shadow' cases on the turf, which is a hazardous maneuver executed by the occassional (non-steeplechase) horse.

Synthetics are more like turf than dirt. At least the horses that tend to do well are more turfers than dirt horses IMHO.

What is the goal of deciding to card races?
1) More competitive fields for happier bettors? Bettors like bigger fields and chances for bigger payoffs. Although the occasional Flightline win by a dozen lengths does capture the imagination.
2) For horse safety?
3) Tradition (stakes races on dirt should stay on dirt)
4) Influence on Breeders/partners? Horses are often bred for a surface, so switching gears could be a boon for some breeders and death for others.
5) <others>

Which of the above is a consideration to get bigger handles in races?

Racing doesn't need track records. Great races can occur in slower times. A safer and slower track can still be of use racing.

I'm not sure what the reason for 'quallity of horses' meant as far as the decision to get away from synthetics meant; I assume that meant the horses weren't as good, not that the races weren't competitive. Synthetics does lack a more classic connection with racing history and experience.

Dirt racing surfaces are layered with different stones (for drainage) and layers of dirt types on top. They can be made harder for faster times (see the week before Secretariat's Belmont win.. 1/3 of the track records were broken that week). But if the character of the track is not consistent throughout the track, you'll have more problems. I recall that jockeys at the Aqueduct winter meet were fine riding in any temperature weather, but less so when the temperature was near 32 def F because parts of the track were melted and parts were frozen. Horses like to know what the next step will feel like. Horses will trip and/or break down if the track is soft here and hard there.

Certainly more study will occur soon.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

After a couple of days of miserable air quality, there is great improvement today and racing will resume.
So the Acorn is happening.

Trivia: The 3rd dam of Flightline won the Acorn in the year 2000. Her name was Finder's Fee.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Ad hoc thoughts:

Turf racing tends to have more come from behind races; maybe because turf races are often longer (the ones I watch anyway). Racing from off the pace can be easier on the horse. I think there are fewer 'jumping of shadow' cases on the turf, which is a hazardous maneuver executed by the occassional (non-steeplechase) horse.

Synthetics are more like turf than dirt. At least the horses that tend to do well are more turfers than dirt horses IMHO.

What is the goal of deciding to card races?
1) More competitive fields for happier bettors? Bettors like bigger fields and chances for bigger payoffs. Although the occasional Flightline win by a dozen lengths does capture the imagination.
2) For horse safety?
3) Tradition (stakes races on dirt should stay on dirt)
4) Influence on Breeders/partners? Horses are often bred for a surface, so switching gears could be a boon for some breeders and death for others.
5) <others>

Which of the above is a consideration to get bigger handles in races?

Racing doesn't need track records. Great races can occur in slower times. A safer and slower track can still be of use racing.

I'm not sure what the reason for 'quallity of horses' meant as far as the decision to get away from synthetics meant; I assume that meant the horses weren't as good, not that the races weren't competitive. Synthetics does lack a more classic connection with racing history and experience.

Dirt racing surfaces are layered with different stones (for drainage) and layers of dirt types on top. They can be made harder for faster times (see the week before Secretariat's Belmont win.. 1/3 of the track records were broken that week). But if the character of the track is not consistent throughout the track, you'll have more problems. I recall that jockeys at the Aqueduct winter meet were fine riding in any temperature weather, but less so when the temperature was near 32 def F because parts of the track were melted and parts were frozen. Horses like to know what the next step will feel like. Horses will trip and/or break down if the track is soft here and hard there.

Certainly more study will occur soon.

Larry
DevilHorse

Using the term quality of horse was a poor choice of words. What happened was Keeneland wasn’t getting the best three year olds for the Bluegrass Stakes. The very best dirt stakes horses didn’t seem to stable at Keeneland. Admittedly I was not as invested in horse racing during that period. I seem to recall the thought was if Keeneland switched to synthetic many other top notch tracks would do the same. When other tracks didn’t follow along, the experiment was considered a failure.

I understand that many breeders would be negatively impacted by a sudden switch to synthetic surfaces. Certain stud horses would increase in value while others would decrease. Over time the Breeders would adjust with new stud horses.

The problem as I see it is horse racing where horses continue to break down in the biggest moments of racing is not sustainable. The percentage of the general population that cares about horse racing is now minuscule. PETA claims to have 6.5 million members. Are there 6.5 million people who care about horse racing? Track attendance and handle have shrunk considerably over the last ten years. Over the last 60 years the decline has been catastrophic. Handicapping is time consuming and challenging. Betting on college football, etc, for most folks is about your gut feeling. Not that different than picking horses by their name or color. I know the big time bettors spend a lot on research, but the average guy not so much. The casino bettor for the most part engages in mindless gambling. Horse racing hasn’t been able to compete for the casual bettor.

Statistics now prove if the well being of the horse is the most important factor then every track in America would switch to synthetic. Ultimately in our society everything seems to boil down to money. I submit the PGA as exhibit 1.

[DevilHorse]

There are a few interesting races on Sunday 6/11/2023:

All new names for these 2YO races. 2YOs can change/show ability on a dime.

At Belmont:

Race 2 is the Astoria for 2YOF:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Sunday June 11, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 2; PPs ]
Mark Casse has a $500k maiden racing in Golden Ghost; the workouts are extremely average (oxymoron?). The other non-homebreds are extremely inexpensive. The likely favorite is the Asmussen trained Closing Act, who is a homebred by Munnings. Living Magic is a homebred by Justify.vI think Closing Act gets the nod.

Race 9 is the Tremont for 2YOC:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...8/summary.html
[ URL above; Sunday June 11, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Ship Cadet appears to have the best kick and one of the top speed figures. This is not a classic distance, so breeding doesn't kick in too much. Gold Sweep is the most expensive horse in the race, and is trained by Assmusen; but he wasn't a winner first time out even though he has a good speed figure. Frosty The Giant sounds like a big horse, and Frosted has thrown some big ones too; he might be a longshot pick with a good kick.

At Ellis Park is the Matt Winn Stakes for 3YOs.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Sunday June 11, 2023; Ellis Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Remember last year when Cyberknife just nosed out Howling Time in a great stretch drive?
https://youtu.be/GvKhvxT0W7o
I'm not sure that there is any horse in this field that is the caliber of Cyberknife (won Arkansas Derby and Haskell Stakes), but you plays what you gets.
Raise Cain was considering the Belmont Stakes, but the connections wussed out and is running here. Disarm finished 4th in the KYD. Bo Cruz has ability and won his last 2, most recently at CD on KYD day. Verifying is a solid horse who hasn't won in a while. I think it is between Disarm and Bo Cruz; Disarm is consistent and has class; I'll pick him over Bo Cruz.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Folks,

The New York Racing Festival should occur on Saturday. Outside events have been cancelled all over the north east USA. Racing is no exception. I'm guessing that Thursday's races will be cancelled at Belmont; Friday is a maybe and Saturday is probably a go. The stench of burned wood extends from Philadelphia to Connecticut, and the sky is yellow.

At any rate, Saturday's races listed here are all at Belmont:

Race 6 is the Brooklyn Handicap:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 6; PPs ]
The favorite might be Next. Warrant is also capable. Lone Star likes the longer races, but is he fast enough?

Race 7 is the Ogden Phipps for older fillies:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 7; PPs ]
Most of the top horses in the division are hear; Search Results, Secret Oath, Clairiere, and Played Hard. Clairiere has some extra rest.

Race 8 is the Woody Stephens:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 8; PPs ]
General Jim has been sharp; Arabian Lion looks to have the speed. What is Fort Bragg doing here; wasn't he just renamed Fort Liberty?

Race 9 is a turf race; the Jaipur:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Casa Creed attempts to come from behind in this one.

Race 10 is the Met Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Can anyone beat Cody's Wish? Zandon and Repo Rocks will give it a try.

Race 12 is the Belmont Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 12; PPs ]
Forte' reappears and is hopefully in good shape. Tapit Trice tries the 3rd jewel. Angel Of Empire puts on blinkers. National Treasure was tough in the Preakness. I have to go with Forte'; he is rested and I expect, since Pletcher would have run him in the KYD, he has his health back. But Angel of Empire is a wicked closer too. Tapit Trice had some traffic problems in the KYD, so a 9 horse field should be more to his liking. National Treasure may not hit the board with the top 3.

There are other (turf) stakes races on the pages with the pointers. Enjoy.

Larry
DevilHorse


[ URL above; Saturday June 10, 2023; Belmont Park - Race 10; PPs ]

No Beyers yet.

I'll comment in detail on the Belmont in a separate post (leaving this post for results).

In the Brooklyn Handicap, Next led from start to finish:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667600399178629120
2:31 for the 1 1/2 mile race.

In one of the better races of the day, Clairiere establshes herself as the top route mare in the country:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667623836672565250
No disgrace in Search Results' place finish. Clairiere is just one tough mare.
Ogden Phipps bred, raced, and bred again Personal Ensign amongst other contributions.

Arabian Lion beat Drew's Gold in the Woody Stephens:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667624800645271555
These horses figured. General Jim was not up to it today.
Woody Stephens won 5 Belmont Stakes in a row!!!

The filly Caravel won the Jaipur on the turf in an impressive 1:07 4/5:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667629954828472320
Casa Creed could not close into those fractions, but Big Invasion could; I'll look out for this horse.
This was a day for the distaffs.

Cody's Wish was awesome going from last to first (easily) in the Met Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667641335736844288
Watch the #1 horse, CW, as he hugs the rail for the first part of the race, but then has to deal with traffic problems. Once he pulls to the outside, partway through the turn, he is push button quick. Zandon snagged 2nd (I think he found a niche).
Race time, 1:34 1/5, is pretty good.

Arcangelo was outstanding in the Belmont, and benefited from a great ride by Javi Castellano:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667671646616928256
Forte' did not disgrace himself with a 2nd place finish after 2 months off. The ride could have been better for him, being 5 or 6 wide along the last turn; he must have run an extra 100 feet or so than the winner. Tapit Trice ran a good race but was his own worst enemy with another slow start; lost 5 lengths at the start, and a little momentum in the lane when the jockey tried to move him over to the center of the track and jerked his head; Forte' was also in the way by then. It would have been a great finish, with 4 across the track at the "Secretariat Pole", except there was Arcangelo 3 lengths ahead.
Time 2:29 1/5, below par speed for the race.

More thoughts on the day in the next post.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

What a day at Belmont. Great horses and great races.

On the Belmont, a big congratulations to Jena Antonucci, the trainer of Arcangelo. She participated in a number of interviews before the race and was very humble while trying to crash through the glass ceiling of being the first woman trainer to win the Belmont or any Triple Crown race. My trainer was (and still is) a woman, and I've had a woman driver for my horses, so I'm glad to see Jena make this tremendous achievement. This was by far Jena's biggest win (of course); she had (only) 2 Grade III wins to her credit before this. She used to work for D. Wayne Lukas (same as Todd Pletcher).
Her reaction at the end of the race was replayed a number of times on NBC, but it certainly should go viral because of the visceral feeling you get. Here is an extended view of Jena's reaction during the the far turn and the whole stretch of the race:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1667687314309488640
Thanks Twitter!!!
Her emotional reaction to winning the race is fantastic. That's why we participate in racing!!! It also reminded me of Jim Valvano, after winning the national championship, looking for someone to hug.
Jena was (obviously) looking at a monitor for the early part of the stretch drive; I can attest to the fact that at these big races the crowd impinges on your personal space and it is sometimes hard to see up the track; and at Belmont, the turn is so far away, it is tough to see what is happening without electronic enhancement.

At the moment, I still think Forte' is the best horse in the race. The extra distance he traveled, not hugging the rail when there were no horses near him on the turn, and the extra time off, really hurt his chances. But the lightly raced Arcangelo definitely took a big step up.

Arcangelo was bred for this race. His sire is Arrogate, who hit the scene after the Triple Crown races that year; after his maiden win he followed it up by winning the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes (and breaking General Assembly's stakes record).
Tapit is Arcangelo's broodmare sire. That makes Arcangelo 2 generations of grey horses, but I digreyss.
Usually you see sires and mares complement each other when a breeding is picked out. But Arrogate on a Tapit mare is giving up on being a sprinter (early 2YO races) and going for the more classic triple crown races. That is a narrow window (fewer races competing at distance).

The shame of losing Arrogate after only 3 seasons at stud is deeply felt now that he has had his first classic winner. He only has 1 more crop that can have a classic winner in this year's 2YOs. This was Arrogate's second Grade I winner. That other Grade I winner was on the card yesterday.. it was Kentucky Oaks winner (last year) Secret Oath (who did not fair well against Clairiere).

Javi Castellano won 2 legs of the triple crown (it's been done), but with 2 different horses. And he never won a leg before after 29 previous tries. Buy a lottery ticket Javi.

Arcangelo won the Peter Pan Stakes the week after the KYD. Other winners of both races includes: High Gun (1954), Gallant Man (1957), Cavan (1958), Coastal (1979), A.P. Indy (1992), Tonalist (2014). I was present for both of Coastal's wins; beautiful chestnut with a wide white stripe.

The Tremont may seem like a too early race to find next year's top horses (being run today/sunday, with pointers up thread), but I looked at the list of Tremont winners and found quite a few horses that were prominent later in their careers. Here are a few of the notables: Henny Hughes (Triple Crown contender and sire of Beholder); City Zip (top sprint sire); More Than Ready (top sire, finished 4th in the KYD); Hansel (Preakness winner); Gulch (Triple Crown contender, sire of KYD winner Thunder Gulch); Alydar (do I need to list his accomplishments?); Bold Forbes (KYD and Belmont winner); Foolish Pleasure (KYD winner).

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I thought it was a great day with really compelling races. I didn’t realize the main races were on Fox and kept hunting for them on NBC and its networks. For the Triple Crown I’m old school and would prefer the same network carry all three races. Hey, I still miss Jack Whitaker.

Menefee got a little excited after Caravel’s win and proclaimed Brad Cox a turf specialist trainer. Someone else, maybe Amoss, politely pointed out he is one of the best trainers in the country, not just turf. Maggie gave me second thoughts after I had bet Caravel and she commented the horse usually carried more weight before her best races. I’ll still take her opinion over about any horse observer out there. The big handicapper bet several horses in that race in his Pick 4 and pointedly left off Caravel. Picking horses on national television doesn’t leave much room to hide when you’re wrong.

Watching Cody’s Wish, Tom Durkin incorrectly claimed the horse was “laboring”, I think that was the term, at the back of the pack. To my eye at the time he was merely behind horses and needed running room. When he got it, he took off.

Not only did a female trainer win the Belmont, she did it with a $35,000 auction purchase. I love it when regular folks, not sheiks and billionaires, win the most important races. That’s what gives hope to every race lover. That’s why MyRacehorse can get people to buy a 1 ten thousandth interest in a thoroughbred. Although MyRacehorse typically pays a lot more for its purchase than $35,000.

For the rest of the summer in Kentucky we still have Stephen Foster Day. I assume maybe next week, to be held at Ellis Park, a 100 year old backwoods facility in Henderson, KY now owned by Churchill Downs. A most interesting fact for lovers of trivia. Ellis Park sits on the north side of the Ohio river across from Henderson and next to Evansville Indiana, but it’s in Kentucky. Some time around 200 plus years ago the river changed course and left part of Kentucky on the north side of the river. It’s going to seem strange to see great jockeys at Ellis for that race.

After that then the great racing at Saratoga Springs. Have to wonder if Two Phils’ shows up for the Travers. I agree with DevilHorse that Forte is still the three year old to beat.