Horse Racing 2023

[DevilHorse]

Here's your chance to get aquainted with the top rated 3YO Fillies so far (if you haven't already been following my the 3YO filly races in this forum):

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Friday March 9, 2023; Ky Derby Future - Race 1; PPs ]

These PPs look up to date.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Here are the PPs for the KYD Future Pool 5:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; Ky Derby Future - Race 5; PPs ]

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend is a bit light on the 3YO front, but there is 1 race of interest to the KYD:

At Tampa Bay Downs is the Tampa Bay Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; March 11, 2023; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 11; PPs ]
Tapit Trice is an emerging star who has been rated just behind Forte' and Arabian Knight. The son of Tapit should not mind going longer than 1 mile (his most recent win).
Shesterkin and Zydeceaux hae a chance to hit the board; but they don't have Tapit Trice's speed figures.

There are several races for older horses that are interesting; I'll list a couple:

At Tampa Bay Downs is the Challenger Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; March 11, 2023; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking and Classic Causeway are likely favorites. Classic Causeway returns to the dirt/artificial dirt; he committed a cardinal sin of winning on the turf, so he was doomed to several additional lackluster starts.


At Oaklawn Park is the Azeri for older fillies/mares:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; March 11, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 9; PPs ]
It's last year's top mare, Clairiere vs. Secret Oath. Both fillies are making their first start of the year. Bet the Quinella.

Larry
DeviHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend is a bit light on the 3YO front, but there is 1 race of interest to the KYD:

At Tampa Bay Downs is the Tampa Bay Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; March 11, 2023; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 11; PPs ]
Tapit Trice is an emerging star who has been rated just behind Forte' and Arabian Knight. The son of Tapit should not mind going longer than 1 mile (his most recent win).
Shesterkin and Zydeceaux hae a chance to hit the board; but they don't have Tapit Trice's speed figures.

There are several races for older horses that are interesting; I'll list a couple:

At Tampa Bay Downs is the Challenger Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; March 11, 2023; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8; PPs ]
Skippylongstocking and Classic Causeway are likely favorites. Classic Causeway returns to the dirt/artificial dirt; he committed a cardinal sin of winning on the turf, so he was doomed to several additional lackluster starts.


At Oaklawn Park is the Azeri for older fillies/mares:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above; March 11, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 9; PPs ]
It's last year's top mare, Clairiere vs. Secret Oath. Both fillies are making their first start of the year. Bet the Quinella.

Larry
DeviHorse

First the big news. Top 2 colt Arabian Knight had a less than satisfactory workout yesterday. The connections of the horse stated that he needs to mature a little. No statement as to whether they might consider the Preakness or the Belmont, but I think not.

The Tampa Bay Derby was won by Tapit Trice:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634682719518199808
Evidently this colt has trouble leaving the gate when it opens, which will cost him 5-7 lengths every time. But he has a great kick and looks like Essential Quality. Tapit Trice was awarded an 88 Beyer.

In the Challenger Stakes, Skippylongstocking won at odds on:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634903720516521986
Skippylongstocking (4YO) was 0.85 seconds faster than Tapit Trice, but no Beyer yet.

At Oaklawn Park, in the Azeri, it was Secret Oath making a nice seasonal debut:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634697227259240449
Clairiere was at the back of the pack until the stretch and still didn't have clearance; but Secret Oath was the best today. Note Secret Oath is 4YO and Clairiere is 5YO. Interesting that D Wayne Lukas trained both Secret Oath and Azeri.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

[QUOTE=DevilHorse;1578296]First the big news. Top 2 colt Arabian Knight had a less than satisfactory workout yesterday. The connections of the horse stated that he needs to mature a little. No statement as to whether they might consider the Preakness or the Belmont, but I think not.

The Tampa Bay Derby was won by Tapit Trice:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634682719518199808
Evidently this colt has trouble leaving the gate when it opens, which will cost him 5-7 lengths every time. But he has a great kick and looks like Essential Quality. Tapit Trice was awarded an 88 Beyer.

In the Challenger Stakes, Skippylongstocking won at odds on:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634903720516521986
Skippylongstocking (4YO) was 0.85 seconds faster than Tapit Trice, but no Beyer yet.

At Oaklawn Park, in the Azeri, it was Secret Oath making a nice seasonal debut:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634697227259240449
Clairiere was at the back of the pack until the stretch and still didn't have clearance; but Secret Oath was the best today. Note Secret Oath is 4YO and Clairiere is 5YO. Interesting that D Wayne Lukas trained both Secret Oath and Azeri.

Larry
DevilHorse[QUOTE]

Tapit Trice is so far back I had to watch it three times to finally figure out where he was. The other gray horse kept confusing me. He definitely mowed them down in the stretch. As you pointed out distance shouldn’t be a problem. Forte has been really impressive, but I am fond of Tapit’s offspring. Do you have any information where he races next?

[DevilHorse]

[QUOTE=TheDevilMadeMeDoIt;1578927][QUOTE=DevilHorse;1578296]First the big news. Top 2 colt Arabian Knight had a less than satisfactory workout yesterday. The connections of the horse stated that he needs to mature a little. No statement as to whether they might consider the Preakness or the Belmont, but I think not.

The Tampa Bay Derby was won by Tapit Trice:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634682719518199808
Evidently this colt has trouble leaving the gate when it opens, which will cost him 5-7 lengths every time. But he has a great kick and looks like Essential Quality. Tapit Trice was awarded an 88 Beyer.

In the Challenger Stakes, Skippylongstocking won at odds on:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634903720516521986
Skippylongstocking (4YO) was 0.85 seconds faster than Tapit Trice, but no Beyer yet.

At Oaklawn Park, in the Azeri, it was Secret Oath making a nice seasonal debut:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1634697227259240449
Clairiere was at the back of the pack until the stretch and still didn't have clearance; but Secret Oath was the best today. Note Secret Oath is 4YO and Clairiere is 5YO. Interesting that D Wayne Lukas trained both Secret Oath and Azeri.

Larry
DevilHorse

Tapit Trice is so far back I had to watch it three times to finally figure out where he was. The other gray horse kept confusing me. He definitely mowed them down in the stretch. As you pointed out distance shouldn’t be a problem. Forte has been really impressive, but I am fond of Tapit’s offspring. Do you have any information where he races next?

Tapit Trice is pointing toward the Bluegrass stakes, April 8 (do I have to say 2023 ).

I'm sure there will be more surprises in the upcoming KYD preps. Whoever wins the preps in a month (Wood, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Louisiana Derby (in 2 weeks)) will take money in the KYD. Forte will be trying the Florida Derby.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Slim Pickins for the KYD picture this weekend with no KYD points races.

However, if you have an appetite for the sophomores, you can find the Private Terms at Laurel:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Laurel Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Howgreatisnate dropped out of a KYD points race last week to run here.

On the 3YO distaff side, there is the Cicada at Aqueduct:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Aqueduct - Race 9; PPs ]
Downtown Mischief looks like the favorite.


On Sunday, there is an interesting 3YO colt allowance (aka, Optional Claimer with no one in for a tag):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 6; PPs ]
Nice colt Bishop's Bay vs. First Defender. There's another interesting horse named Demolition Duke in there too.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Slim Pickins for the KYD picture this weekend with no KYD points races.

However, if you have an appetite for the sophomores, you can find the Private Terms at Laurel:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Laurel Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Howgreatisnate dropped out of a KYD points race last week to run here.

On the 3YO distaff side, there is the Cicada at Aqueduct:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Aqueduct - Race 9; PPs ]
Downtown Mischief looks like the favorite.


On Sunday, there is an interesting 3YO colt allowance (aka, Optional Claimer with no one in for a tag):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 6; PPs ]
Nice colt Bishop's Bay vs. First Defender. There's another interesting horse named Demolition Duke in there too.

Larry
DevilHorse

I know it is a drag after the end of Men's Basketball, but chin up.. there is optimism about the future of the program AND the KYD is coming up in early May.

In the Private Terms, Hayes Strike won at a price:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1637230004151939078
HS took the overland route with a wide sweeping move on the turn. I expect the Beyer to be modest.

In the Cicada yesterday, Downtown Mischief ran her unbeaten streak to 3:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1637210515008114689
I don't know if any of these horses can go a classic Kentucky Oaks distance; the final time was not impressive (no Beyer yet) on a fast track.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

On Sunday, there is an interesting 3YO colt allowance (aka, Optional Claimer with no one in for a tag):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday March 18, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 6; PPs ]
Nice colt Bishop's Bay vs. First Defender. There's another interesting horse named Demolition Duke in there too.

Larry
DevilHorse

Bishops Bay won this 3YO Colt allowance race:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
Demolition Duke with a very determined 2nd.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Some of you may recall some discussion about the high rate of horse fatalities at Santa Anita a couple of years ago, and in the industry in general. Evidently progress has been made at reducing those numbers:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...tabase-record/

Horses will hurt themselves in the field or in their stall. It is unavoidable with a half ton animal that stands on 4 limbs that are not much thicker than ours. But this is welcome news.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I have the feeling that most folks who read this forum are concentrated solely on the KYD, and to lesser extent on actively betting any races. That's fine.
But for those of you who don't think about betting, we haven't discussed the topic enough to be informative about different perspectives.

If you're interested in learning a little more about betting, I saw that someone is starting a podcast about it:
https://twitter.com/derby1592/status...02620554838016
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Vv...j7KmtlJmW&nd=1

It looks interesting. Give it a try.

Remember, betting is like baseball batting averages, if you can hit one in three, you're going to the Hall Of Fame.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

We have 3 quality 3YO races this weekend:

The Louisiana Derby with some top returning 3YOs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 12; PPs ]
This race marks the return of Instant Coffee, who has won 3 of 4 including the Lecomte over 2 months ago. Curly Jack, Sun Thunder, and Kingsbarn have a shot at hitting the board.

The Ruby Steaks (correct spelling)
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Turfway Park - Race 12; PPs]
Two Phil's, Funtastic Again, and Major Dude are your major contenders.

and on Sunday, the Sunland Derby
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[URL above; Sunday March 26, 2023; Sunland Park - Race 10; PPs]
Fort Bragg and Henry Q look like contenders; Hard To Figure is appropriately named.


also some 3YO filly races

Bourbonette Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Turfway Park - Race 11; PPs ]
Botanical and Flashy Gem look capable of winning.

Fair Grounds Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 11; PPs ]
Hoosier Philly and Pretty Mischievous pick up their rivalry. The Alys Look could round out the triple.

On Sunday, the Sunland Park Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[URL above; Sunday March 26, 2023; Sunland Park - Race 8; PPs]
Flying Connection and Doinitthehardway are top contenders.

There are other stakes races noted in the pages above to spice up your day.

Also, the Dubai World Cup, being broadcast on FS2 Saturday morning.
You can get the PPs for the entire card through this link:
https://www.brisnet.com/product/down...SA/TB/DUB/D/0/
But you need to have a Brisnet login, which is free.
Race 8 is the Dubai World Cup with Country Grammar trying to take top laurels vs. Panthalasa who won the Saudi Cup in a big surprise.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

We have 3 quality 3YO races this weekend:

The Louisiana Derby with some top returning 3YOs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 12; PPs ]
This race marks the return of Instant Coffee, who has won 3 of 4 including the Lecomte over 2 months ago. Curly Jack, Sun Thunder, and Kingsbarn have a shot at hitting the board.

The Ruby Steaks (correct spelling)
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Turfway Park - Race 12; PPs]
Two Phil's, Funtastic Again, and Major Dude are your major contenders.

and on Sunday, the Sunland Derby
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[URL above; Sunday March 26, 2023; Sunland Park - Race 10; PPs]
Fort Bragg and Henry Q look like contenders; Hard To Figure is appropriately named.


also some 3YO filly races

Bourbonette Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Turfway Park - Race 11; PPs ]
Botanical and Flashy Gem look capable of winning.

Fair Grounds Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[URL above; Saturday March 25, 2023; Fair Grounds - Race 11; PPs ]
Hoosier Philly and Pretty Mischievous pick up their rivalry. The Alys Look could round out the triple.

On Sunday, the Sunland Park Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[URL above; Sunday March 26, 2023; Sunland Park - Race 8; PPs]
Flying Connection and Doinitthehardway are top contenders.

There are other stakes races noted in the pages above to spice up your day.

Also, the Dubai World Cup, being broadcast on FS2 Saturday morning.
You can get the PPs for the entire card through this link:
https://www.brisnet.com/product/down...SA/TB/DUB/D/0/
But you need to have a Brisnet login, which is free.
Race 8 is the Dubai World Cup with Country Grammar trying to take top laurels vs. Panthalasa who won the Saudi Cup in a big surprise.

Larry
DevilHorse

More 3YO races and more churn in names:

In the Louisiana Derby, a new name in the 'person' of Kingsbarns won the race:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639763240552132608
This undefeated in 3 starts colt won impressively and was awarded a spiffy 95 Beyer. It looked like Instant Coffee needs more time to brew.


In the Jeff Ruby Steaks, it was often denied Two Phil's who showed up and received a 3YO best Beyer of 101!!!
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639760665761001472
Major Dude finished a respectable second. Gave you the boxed triple but they were favored as there were only 5 horses with a shot based on PPs.
Does the punctuation of "Two Phil's" bother you too? Just not right.

For the 3YO fillies:

The Bourbonette Oaks was won by Botanical:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639750485380067330
Botanical was in control of this race.

The Fair Grounds Oaks was a field of 5 and won by Southlawn, who looked strong:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639755883952603136
Nice race, coming into the KYO.
Southlawn is trained by young Norm Casse, son of Hall of Famer Mark Casse. Norm is also the spouse of TVG broadcaster Gaby Giffords:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639757327472660480
Pretty Mischievous looked like she had enough. Last year's top 3 filly, Hoosier Philly, just doesn't look like she has it (yet).
In other racing news:

Ushba Tesoro won the Dubai World Cup:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639750485380067330
The US horses were not very good. But like most of these horses, Ushba Tesoro has a pedigree permeated with US bloodstock. His sireline is through Sunday Silence, his broodmare sire is by Kingmambo, and Seattle Slew is lurking in the 4th generation.

In the UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake won impressively and sounds like he is headed to the USA for the Kentucky Derby.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639635290850484225
Yes, that is Larry Collmus with the call in the UAE. Derma Stotgake's race was 2 seconds faster than Two Phil's today, but very different weather conditions.

In the New Orleans Classic, West Will Power beat the eratic Art Collector handily:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639738370619478017

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

More 3YO races and more churn in names:

In the Louisiana Derby, a new name in the 'person' of Kingsbarns won the race:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639763240552132608
This undefeated in 3 starts colt won impressively and was awarded a spiffy 95 Beyer. It looked like Instant Coffee needs more time to brew.


In the Jeff Ruby Steaks, it was often denied Two Phil's who showed up and received a 3YO best Beyer of 101!!!
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639760665761001472
Major Dude finished a respectable second. Gave you the boxed triple but they were favored as there were only 5 horses with a shot based on PPs.
Does the punctuation of "Two Phil's" bother you too? Just not right.

For the 3YO fillies:

The Bourbonette Oaks was won by Botanical:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639750485380067330
Botanical was in control of this race.

The Fair Grounds Oaks was a field of 5 and won by Southlawn, who looked strong:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639755883952603136
Nice race, coming into the KYO.
Southlawn is trained by young Norm Casse, son of Hall of Famer Mark Casse. Norm is also the spouse of TVG broadcaster Gaby Giffords:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639757327472660480
Pretty Mischievous looked like she had enough. Last year's top 3 filly, Hoosier Philly, just doesn't look like she has it (yet).
In other racing news:

Ushba Tesoro won the Dubai World Cup:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639750485380067330
The US horses were not very good. But like most of these horses, Ushba Tesoro has a pedigree permeated with US bloodstock. His sireline is through Sunday Silence, his broodmare sire is by Kingmambo, and Seattle Slew is lurking in the 4th generation.

In the UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake won impressively and sounds like he is headed to the USA for the Kentucky Derby.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639635290850484225
Yes, that is Larry Collmus with the call in the UAE. Derma Stotgake's race was 2 seconds faster than Two Phil's today, but very different weather conditions.

In the New Orleans Classic, West Will Power beat the eratic Art Collector handily:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639738370619478017

Larry
DevilHorse

I’m looking forward to your thoughts on the La. Derby and the Jeff Ruby. I thought Kingsbarns looked impressive, but then he set slow fractions, 1:14 plus for six furlongs. If he tries to take the lead in the Derby the fractions will certainly be faster. So at this point I’m looking elsewhere. That probably means he will win!

Two Phil’s performance was impressive, fast speed rating, laid off a good pace and closed with authority. But, did it on all weather track against lesser horses. Then again, last year’s Derby winner ran in the same race over the same surface. Not sure if Irad had ever ridden Turfway Park before.

Picking the Ky. Derby is like trying to pick the NCAA winner when the current tournament started ten or so days ago.

[DevilHorse]

We have 3 quality 3YO races this weekend:


and on Sunday, the Sunland Derby
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[URL above; Sunday March 26, 2023; Sunland Park - Race 10; PPs]
Fort Bragg and Henry Q look like contenders; Hard To Figure is appropriately named.


also some 3YO filly races

On Sunday, the Sunland Park Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[URL above; Sunday March 26, 2023; Sunland Park - Race 8; PPs]
Flying Connection and Doinitthehardway are top contenders.


Larry
DevilHorse

Big longshot (35-1) Wild On Ice won the Sunland Park Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1640128467252412427
Competitive race, but I imagine most of the observers weren't happy with the result.

In the Sunland Park Oaks, Flying Connection was almost the favorite, but definitely the best:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1640109388315922435

But if you really want the performance of the weekend by a 3YO, look to Pletcher trained Munny's Gold who put in this effort at 7f at Tampa Bay Downs:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1640077245455941633
Here are her new PPs:
https://twitter.com/RenCarothers/sta...476865/photo/1
Munny's Gold is a filly and was awarded a Flightline-esque 106 Beyer for setting the track record at Tampa Bay Downs for 7f (by 17 lengths). The win was expected, but not with this much improvement over previous impressive starts. This was a statebred stakes race, so the competition wasn't bad.
She is by Munnings, who gets some really nice horses (like Jack Christopher, Ginobili, and Kimari). But what we know about the Munnings' is that they rarely can go a classic distance and win. If these owners are smart, they'll keep her to the sprints; but she is by Medaglia D'oro, so who knows.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I’m looking forward to your thoughts on the La. Derby and the Jeff Ruby. I thought Kingsbarns looked impressive, but then he set slow fractions, 1:14 plus for six furlongs. If he tries to take the lead in the Derby the fractions will certainly be faster. So at this point I’m looking elsewhere. That probably means he will win!

Two Phil’s performance was impressive, fast speed rating, laid off a good pace and closed with authority. But, did it on all weather track against lesser horses. Then again, last year’s Derby winner ran in the same race over the same surface. Not sure if Irad had ever ridden Turfway Park before.

Picking the Ky. Derby is like trying to pick the NCAA winner when the current tournament started ten or so days ago.

I do have a general impression. We continue to see upsets deep into the Derby Trail. This can be attributed to lightly raced horses. It's probably best for the horses, and the quality of races further into the summer, that some of these horses were not worn out in their 2YO year. But for someone who is looking for some consistency from multiple early races, it is hard to see it. Kingsbarns will enter the KYD with 3 previous starts in successively higher difficulty; that's not a lot to bet on. We'll have to see how these horses come out of this race. But using speed ratings is the best we can do.

If you just want an opinion on how Kingsbarns is going to do, consider these competing factors:
+) He doesn't qualify to win the KYD based on the Dosage theory because he didn't start as a 2YO.
+) Handicappers that use 'the sheets' would be expecting a 'bounce' (poor effort) the next time out after a big improvement.

Two Phil's has not been a world beater up to this point. But he has more bottom (more experience/fitness) than most of the other contenders.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

We are in the meat of the KYD Trail. This week and next weekend (Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass) are the big prelim races. But for this week we have the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby. The KYD is 5 weeks away.

In Arkansas this Saturday is the Arkansas Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 12; PPs ]
This traditionally big race is coming in a bit light; Rocket Can, winner of Holy Bull Stakes, has defected to next weekend's Blue Grass.
Angel Of Empire, Reincarnate, and Red Route One look like the contenders.

At Gulfstream Park is the Florida Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Gulfstream Park - Race 14; PPs ]
Forte' makes his last start before the KYD and will be the heavy favorite. Starting from the 11 post is a small issue, but he will be carrying Irad Ortiz. Fort Bragg has been searching the country for a soft spot to pick up KYD points; we'll see what the Baffert refugee can do. It's put up or shut up time for these 3YOs.

For the fillies, in Arkansas is the Fantasy Stakes
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Wet Paint and Condensation are highly regarded. These two were the exacta in the more recent Honeybee Stakes, but that was on a sloppy track. The weather actually looks good (at this time) for Saturday, although thursday and friday will see rain.

In Florida is the Gulfstream Park Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Gulfstream Park - Race 12; PPs ]
Dorth Vader will see if she can stretch out her speed; Atomically has a good chance to hit the board. Both of these fillies are by (now 2nd year sire) Girvin. Miracle also looks primed for a big effort.

The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool - Iteration 6 is ready:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Thursday March 30, 2023; Ky Derby Future - Race 6; PPs ]
I'd be surprised if anyone (here) bets this, but I really like seeing all of the PPs together for the likely starters in the KYD. Each of the relevant horses will have one more racing line, but you can pick a few horses and probably watch them race within the next 2 weeks. Caution I would point out, I've seen many horses that already have enough KYD points use their last race as a conditioner and not extend themselves fully. I don't consider this rigging the race, but if a horse has casual workouts and is not given his full spectrum of medication before the race, they might have a dull effort intentionally. If you do your research, and know which trainers do this, then you have an advantage betting. With that said, I would expect horses that need the KYD points to be the ones that hit the board. Except perhaps in the case of Forte'; he has a chance to be a great horse and anything other than a win will hurt his residual (stud) value.

Here is the latest (often updated) KYD points list:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...cky-derby/2023

Happy April Fools Day!! (and the first day of baseball).

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

We are in the meat of the KYD Trail. This week and next weekend (Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass) are the big prelim races. But for this week we have the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby. The KYD is 5 weeks away.

In Arkansas this Saturday is the Arkansas Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 12; PPs ]
This traditionally big race is coming in a bit light; Rocket Can, winner of Holy Bull Stakes, has defected to next weekend's Blue Grass.
Angel Of Empire, Reincarnate, and Red Route One look like the contenders.

At Gulfstream Park is the Florida Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Gulfstream Park - Race 14; PPs ]
Forte' makes his last start before the KYD and will be the heavy favorite. Starting from the 11 post is a small issue, but he will be carrying Irad Ortiz. Fort Bragg has been searching the country for a soft spot to pick up KYD points; we'll see what the Baffert refugee can do. It's put up or shut up time for these 3YOs.

For the fillies, in Arkansas is the Fantasy Stakes
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Oaklawn Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Wet Paint and Condensation are highly regarded. These two were the exacta in the more recent Honeybee Stakes, but that was on a sloppy track. The weather actually looks good (at this time) for Saturday, although thursday and friday will see rain.

In Florida is the Gulfstream Park Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Saturday April 1, 2023; Gulfstream Park - Race 12; PPs ]
Dorth Vader will see if she can stretch out her speed; Atomically has a good chance to hit the board. Both of these fillies are by (now 2nd year sire) Girvin. Miracle also looks primed for a big effort.

The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool - Iteration 6 is ready:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above; Thursday March 30, 2023; Ky Derby Future - Race 6; PPs ]
I'd be surprised if anyone (here) bets this, but I really like seeing all of the PPs together for the likely starters in the KYD. Each of the relevant horses will have one more racing line, but you can pick a few horses and probably watch them race within the next 2 weeks. Caution I would point out, I've seen many horses that already have enough KYD points use their last race as a conditioner and not extend themselves fully. I don't consider this rigging the race, but if a horse has casual workouts and is not given his full spectrum of medication before the race, they might have a dull effort intentionally. If you do your research, and know which trainers do this, then you have an advantage betting. With that said, I would expect horses that need the KYD points to be the ones that hit the board. Except perhaps in the case of Forte'; he has a chance to be a great horse and anything other than a win will hurt his residual (stud) value.

Here is the latest (often updated) KYD points list:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...cky-derby/2023

Happy April Fools Day!! (and the first day of baseball).

Larry
DevilHorse

Thanks for the Derby futures links. I don’t think I realized what a bargain purchase Forte was, $110,000 and now $1.8 mil in winnings. He certainly looks to be the class of the three year olds and should come into the Derby fresh.

Confidence Game a $25,000 purchase with almost $800,000 in winnings was another good buy. On paper I liked his last race. Once you get past Forte hard to separate the rest.

Practical Moves, who was always Yatkeen’s horse, not a Baffert trainee, looks like the best of the California horses, but am always leery of class of California racing.

Did Two Phil’s last race indicate a rapidly improving horse, or a weak field or a surface preference? Hard to tell.

I have paid little attention to horse racing this winter so my views may be skewed, but not really impressed with this crop.

I am confident I will probably bet the wrong horse in the Derby and keep my losing record intact. I believe it was the 100th Derby where I just knew Judger would win. So I went to Oaks Day and placed a huge $2.00 bet on Judger in the Derby. I was a third year law student so $2.00 was significant. He lost, but he was part of an entry with Cannonade who won. I kept the ticket and still have it stashed somewhere.

One final thought, I miss the day when horses 13-20 were part of the field and you could make a bet on the field. Not sure how often those horses win, but last year would have certainly been a winner.

[DevilHorse]

Thanks for the Derby futures links. I don’t think I realized what a bargain purchase Forte was, $110,000 and now $1.8 mil in winnings. He certainly looks to be the class of the three year olds and should come into the Derby fresh.

Confidence Game a $25,000 purchase with almost $800,000 in winnings was another good buy. On paper I liked his last race. Once you get past Forte hard to separate the rest.

Practical Moves, who was always Yatkeen’s horse, not a Baffert trainee, looks like the best of the California horses, but am always leery of class of California racing.

Did Two Phil’s last race indicate a rapidly improving horse, or a weak field or a surface preference? Hard to tell.

I have paid little attention to horse racing this winter so my views may be skewed, but not really impressed with this crop.

I am confident I will probably bet the wrong horse in the Derby and keep my losing record intact. I believe it was the 100th Derby where I just knew Judger would win. So I went to Oaks Day and placed a huge $2.00 bet on Judger in the Derby. I was a third year law student so $2.00 was significant. He lost, but he was part of an entry with Cannonade who won. I kept the ticket and still have it stashed somewhere.

Will Practical Move be Affirmed/Authentic or Flying Paster? I would have thought that he was pedigree bound, but he keeps taking more distance. Very good horse.

Larry
DevilHorse

One final thought, I miss the day when horses 13-20 were part of the field and you could make a bet on the field. Not sure how often those horses win, but last year would have certainly been a winner.

Here are the sales results for Violence yearlings in 2021 when Forte' was sold:

2019 Stud Fee: $40,000
80 offered, 67 sold, $7,331,500 gross, $109,425 average, $50,000 median
Colts: 33 sold, $141,864 avg
Fillies: 34 sold, $77,941 avg


The stud fee had steadily moved up from $15k. Forte's $110k, although smack dab on the average, was well above the median. So there were a few higher priced yearlings sold. He probably looked good but not great relative to the high priced sires.

You who else was a good buy? Flightline for $1M

I have my winning ticket on Affirmed in the 2018 Belmont. I believe it would have paid $3.20 (confirmed). I seem to recall that there was something like $50k of win bets that remain uncashed from Affirmed's Belmont win.

Two Phil's has raced every month or two since he started last summer. His race ratings have steadily improved, but this last race was a big jump. But he probably needed the KYD Points, so he was prepared. Many handicappers believe that he will bounce. He has hit the board 4 of 6 times and his workouts are good. I'd be willing to bet that his next effort in the KYD will not be as highly rated.

[DevilHorse]

Apparently on Thursday morning the legislature in Kentucky passed an online gambling bill:
https://www.casino.org/news/breaking...ons-final-day/

The idea is for the 9 racetracks in Kentucky to apply for licenses to create Sportsbooks. They will also be able to create 3 (remote) sites each. Online betting will also be brought into the state through partner organizations.

Here in New Jersey you can't bet on intra-state sports games (horse racing excluded). So betting on Rutgers and Princeton basketball games were taboo. I wonder if they'll have similar rules in Kentucky; I'm sure that the University of Kentucky and Louisville University have a keen interest in what goes on.

Larry
DevilHorse