Duke/ACC/National WBB for 2022-23 Season

[dudog84]

Apparently Florida State has trouble winning games where they can't start the game with a men's ball at home. They are 1-2 since beating Duke, both losses on the road.

[CameronBornAndBred]

While watching the game today, I bought tix for the Carolina game. I can't remember the last Duke - UNC women's game I was at. It may have been as long ago as Bales/Harding on their senior day.
There surprisingly aren't that many tickets left, at least not for "good" seats.
Can't wait to watch these women in person.

[burnspbesq]

South Carolina crushes LSU, 88-64.

Iowa hangs a 60-point first half on Rutgers.

[loran16]

South Carolina crushes LSU, 88-64.

Iowa hangs a 60-point first half on Rutgers.

LSU is a paper Tiger, and the NCAA was correct in not giving them a 1. Play someone maybe next time and you might be prepared for a game like that.

[DoubleBlue]

LSU is a paper Tiger, and the NCAA was correct in not giving them a 1. Play someone maybe next time and you might be prepared for a game like that.

South Carolina is steam-rolling everyone this year. I sure hope Duke is not in their NCAA regional.

[loran16]

#22 NCSU can officially kiss any hosting dreams goodbye. They fall to UVA (3-11 ACC), and it wasn't particularly close. Most of the 4th quarter was played with the Wuffettes chasing a double digit deficit.

They'll be out of the rankings tomorrow, ending a 96 week streak in the top 25.

Also of note, this seems to all but certainly lock them into an 8-9 seed. Which means if duke holds on to the 1, they are likely our opening opponent in the acc tournament.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Also of note, this seems to all but certainly lock them into an 8-9 seed. Which means if duke holds on to the 1, they are likely our opening opponent in the acc tournament.

There's a very tough stretch between us and that number. Today sure did help, though.

[uh_no]

South Carolina is steam-rolling everyone this year. I sure hope Duke is not in their NCAA regional.

uconn came within 4 without azzi fudd and caroline ducharme. Don't get me wrong, I don't think uconn would win WITH those players in a tournament setting, but they're not all that far off.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Syracuse has gone on a 13-0 run against ND to tie the game in the 3rd.
Edit..now 15-0 and the lead.

[DoubleBlue]

uconn came within 4 without azzi fudd and caroline ducharme. Don't get me wrong, I don't think uconn would win WITH those players in a tournament setting, but they're not all that far off.

After the top tier of 5 teams or so, there is a big drop off. As of now, Duke is in that 2nd tier.

[burnspbesq]

Iowa hangs 111 on Rutgers, including a 37-point third quarter. No starter played more than Clark’s 21 minutes.

Hawkeyes shot 62 percent, including 12-22 on threeS.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Iowa hangs 111 on Rutgers, including a 37-point third quarter. No starter played more than Clark’s 21 minutes.

Hawkeyes shot 62 percent, including 12-22 on threeS.

While sounding impressive on paper, to put this into perspective, Rutgers sucks.
They took the wrath of a team coming off a loss.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The ACC has four games left to play. For Duke, that includes (as of tonight but not tomorrow since State will fall out) three ranked teams.
Here's where things stand in the conference, and who we have upcoming. Remember, we own the tie-breaker over the Irish.

Duke 12-2
Notre Dame 11-3
Virginia Tech 10-4
Louisville 10-4
Florida State 9-5
Miami 9-5
Cheaterettes 9-5
NC State 7-7


We've got VT in Blacksburg on Thursday, then at UVA before hosting State and Carolina to close out.
A double bye is looking beyond safe, but the question of course is will Duke hang tough and claim the regular season conference crown.

[triaddukefan]

The ACC has four games left to play. For Duke, that includes (as of tonight but not tomorrow since State will fall out) three ranked teams.
Here's where things stand in the conference, and who we have upcoming. Remember, we own the tie-breaker over the Irish.

Duke 12-2
Notre Dame 11-3
Virginia Tech 10-4
Louisville 10-4
Florida State 9-5
Miami 9-5
Cheaterettes 9-5
NC State 7-7


We've got VT in Blacksburg on Thursday, then at UVA before hosting State and Carolina to close out.
A double bye is looking beyond safe, but the question of course is will Duke hang tough and claim the regular season conference crown.

There is a good conference tournament bracket prediction website.. You can plug in the predicted results for the rest of the season, and play around with different scenarios. It also gives you the tiebreakers.

I went ahead and did it for the ACC.. i plugged in Sunday's results. Using their predictions for the rest of the season.

ACC Standings

1. Duke (16 - 2)
2. N Dame (15 - 3)
3. Fla St (13 - 5)
4. Va Tech (12 - 6) With L'ville, defeated Miami based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Fla St] (1-0). Defeated L'ville based on head-to-head record (1-0).
5. L'ville (12 - 6) With Va Tech, defeated Miami based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Fla St] (1-0). Lost to Va Tech based on head-to-head record (0-1).
6. Miami (12 - 6) Lost to L'ville and Va Tech based on winning percentage against #3 teams [Fla St] (1-1).
7. UNC (10 - 8) Defeated NC St based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Duke] (1-1).
8. NC St (10 - 8) Lost to UNC based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Duke] (0-2).
9. Syracuse (8 - 10)
10. W Forest (7 - 11)
11. Virginia (5 - 13) Defeated Clemson and Boston C based on round-robin record (2-0).
12. Clemson (5 - 13) Defeated Boston C and lost to Virginia based on round-robin record (1-1).
13. Boston C (5 - 13) Lost to Virginia and Clemson based on round-robin record (0-2).
14. Ga Tech (3 - 15)
15. Pitt (2 - 16)

This is the website, you can do it for any conference, men's or women's.

http://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=accw

http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

[DoubleBlue]

Duke is still #9 in the AP Poll today, but we moved up 1 spot to #7 in the NET, displacing Notre Dame who lost 2 spots.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke is still #9 in the AP Poll today, but we moved up 1 spot to #7 in the NET, displacing Notre Dame who lost 2 spots.

We did tack on 30 more votes, so while we didn't move up, we still "moved up", ha!
All the rankings between 8 and 13 stayed the same, so it will be #9 Duke vs #11 Virginia Tech on Thursday.
As expected, NCSU fell out.

[dudog84]

We did tack on 30 more votes, so while we didn't move up, we still "moved up", ha!
All the rankings between 8 and 13 stayed the same, so it will be #9 Duke vs #11 Virginia Tech on Thursday.
As expected, NCSU fell out.

By one point. Hate to see their streak end like that.

[Kedsy]

Some cool news for statheads: sports-reference has just opened a FREE women's basketball stat source.

So now, for the first time, I can put some of the advanced stats I post every game into context. As of today (2/13/23), here are Duke's season advanced stats and national rank:

OFFENSE

Pace: 68.6 possessions per game (#273 out of 361 Division I women's teams)
oRating (unadjusted): 0.97 (#114)
eFG%: 46.8% (#143)
3pt%: 32.5% (#114)
2pt%: 46.1% (#156)
%threes: 25.2% (#324)
FT rate: 27.3% (#216)
OR%: 35.8% (#60)
TO%: 21.7% (#120)
Asst%: 57.9% (#115)


DEFENSE

dRating (unadjusted): 0.73 (#3)
eFG%: 38.4% (#5)
3pt%: 27.1% (#29)
2pt%: 37.4% (#6)
%threes: 30.0% (#94)
FT rate: 27.6% (#158)
DR%: 74.1% (#23)
TO%: 27.4% (#26)
Asst%: 43.6% (#10)
stl%: 12.8% (#70)
blk%: 13.8% (#4)


To further take these numbers into context, these national ranks obviously include a bunch of teams in non-power conferences. For example, our offensive turnover rank is #120, but we're #40 among the 76 Power Six teams. Our defensive (forced) turnover rate is ranked #26, but that's #5 among P6 teams.

Overall, the numbers and ranks tell us what we already knew. The 2022-23 women's Duke Blue Devils are a middling offensive team and an elite defensive team.

[Phredd3]

I thought it might be interesting to see how that compares with the numbers in Her Hoop Stats, so I've included those below in red. I have made notes to help with differences where I can. Many I cannot explain, and are pretty significant, both in raw value and in ranking, and I have no idea why there are differences in rankings for some metrics that appear to be identical:

OFFENSE

Pace: 68.6 possessions per game (#273 out of 361 Division I women's teams) 68.7 (#266)*
oRating (unadjusted): 0.97 (#114) 103.2 (#53)**
eFG%: 46.8% (#143) 46.8% (#136)
3pt%: 32.5% (#114) 32.5% (#111)
2pt%: 46.1% (#156) 46.1% (#144)
%threes: 25.2% (#324) 21.7% (#304)***
FT rate: 27.3% (#216) 14.9% (#293)
OR%: 35.8% (#60) 35.8% (#57)
TO%: 21.7% (#120) 18.4% (#113)*4*
Asst%: 57.9% (#115) 57.9% (#105)

*Her Hoop Stats labels this "Possessions per 40 Min", rather than PPG
**This is the "Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating", and seems to be a proprietary measure, so serves the same purpose, but different metric.
***"% Points from 3", so probably slightly different metric.
*4*"Turnover Rate", so probably slightly different metric.

DEFENSE

dRating (unadjusted): 0.73 (#3) 75.0 (#5)*
eFG%: 38.4% (#5) 38.4% (#4)
3pt%: 27.1% (#29) 27.1% (#26)
2pt%: 37.4% (#6) 37.4% (#5)
%threes: 30.0% (#94) 25.3% (#119)**
FT rate: 27.6% (#158) 16.1% (#137)
DR%: 74.1% (#23) 64.2% (#57)***
TO%: 27.4% (#26) 24.1% (#20)*4*
Asst%: 43.6% (#10) 43.6% (#11)
stl%: 12.8% (#70) 8.3% (#95)*5*
blk%: 13.8% (#4) 5.5% (#24)*6*

*This is the "Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating", again same purpose, different metric.
**"% Points from 3", again, different metric.
***"Def Reb Rate", probably different metric.
*4*"Turnover Rate", again, slightly different metric
*5*"Steal Rate", probably different metric.
*6*"Block Rate", probably different metric.

[Kedsy]

I thought it might be interesting to see how that compares with the numbers in Her Hoop Stats, so I've included those below in red. I have made notes to help with differences where I can. Many I cannot explain, and are pretty significant, both in raw value and in ranking, and I have no idea why there are differences in rankings for some metrics that appear to be identical:

I can explain almost all of the value differences. The ranking differences may be related to how the two sites treat ties and/or how many decimal places they go when they evaluate the rankings.

(a) possessions per 40 would only be different from possessions per game if a team plays OT games, which I don't think Duke has this season. The 0.1 difference is probably a rounding thing.

(b) Her Hoops Stats oRating and dRating is probably adjusted. That would be preferable for me, but it's not what sports-reference does.

(c) %points from three is obviously different from %attempts from three. In my game stats reports, I've been reporting %attempts from three.

(d) Some people calculate block% and steal% differently, but I tried the alternate calculations manually and they still don't match. I think you accidentally looked at opponents steal and block rate while Duke was on offense. The block numbers match, that way. And the steals pcts might also match, if HHS calculates steals% the same way they calculate TO% (see below).

(e) I also think you looked at our opponents' defensive rebound percentage, because the number and ranking you've listed is exactly our opponents' DR% (rather than Duke's). I checked sports-reference's number manually, and it appears to be correct.

(f) Some people calculate possessions differently for TO%. For reasons I don't understand, these people don't subtract offensive rebounds from possessions like they do for all other possession stats (including steals, oddly enough). Her Hoops Stats obviously calculates TO% that way. So does sports-reference (their numbers actually match HHS). Other people count all possessions, which I think makes more sense so I calculate TO% that way. In my post above, I recalculated TO% to count all possessions, so the numbers would make sense compared to what's in my game stat reports.

(g) I have no idea about the difference in free throw rate. Some people measure FTM/FGA (rather than the usual FTA/FGA), but that number doesn't match. I've tried a bunch of other possibilities (e.g., FTM per point made; FTA per possession; FTM per possession, etc) but I can't figure out what HHS's calculation might be.


In any event, except for areas where the sites calculate things differently, they're pretty close. And sports-reference is free. I'm just happy there's a mainstream site that's finally recognized that women's basketball is basketball.