Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
I think you're actually being a bit pessimistic with that projection. If the season ended today, and they seeded the tournament based solely off of the mostly non-conference slate played to this point, it's highly likely we'd be a 3 or 4 seed now. We're #13 in the NET, and two teams ahead of us (Florida Atlantic and Utah State) are clear early-season outliers. Our two Q1 wins are behind only 3 teams (Purdue, Kansas, and Wisconsin), and we have another game against OSU that is literally just outside that boundary. Our two losses have come against Top 10 teams at neutral sites, including a very close one against Kansas, so we have no bad losses.

Now, the weak ACC means we have a smaller margin for error, but it's also worth recognizing that the Big Ten isn't anywhere near as strong this year as it was last year (evidenced by the ACC taking the Challenge and the NET rankings)... it seems like the Big 12 and SEC have separated themselves from the pack a bit. The ACC seems to be in a second tier of conferences behind them and with the Big Ten and Pac 12, and a bit above the Big East. With that in mind, we probably have a bit more wiggle room than last year, where any loss in the ACC was essentially a bad loss since the consensus was the conference was among the weakest amongst the Power 6.

It's also worth remembering that our tougher than average (if I recall others' analyses correctly) ACC schedule may work in our favor for seeding. We get two cracks at Virginia Tech, both of which would currently be Q1 games. Our road games against Miami and NC State look like they'll be Q1 opportunities as well. And road contests against Virginia and UNC could be opportunities for marquee Q1 wins.

I know we haven't looked as good as we might've hoped at various times this season, and the Oregon State/Purdue games left some bad tastes in our mouths. But as it stands, our resume is actually quite solid, with plenty of opportunities to improve. If we can avoid a "bad" Q3/Q4 loss, I think we'll be securely in the discussion for a Top 4 seed with as many as 5 ACC losses. If we stay under that number, especially if it includes some big Q1 wins, that could go much higher.
I think limiting it to 5 ACC losses would be an incredible feat for Scheyer to pull off in his first season. If he can do that, he's fully answered the questions for me about whether or not he can maintain the standard of excellence. With his coaching inexperience and our youth, I am expecting road games in the conference to be really tough this year. I hope to be proven wrong, just like Elko proved us all wrong this year about our projections for the football team.