Originally Posted by
CDu
Even this feels misleading, as it doesn't address the second of my two points (the era is totally different than 1997-2014, when we had much more experience and continuity). While true that it would be only better than 3 of the past 13 seasons, it would also be better than 3 of the past 7 seasons. Which is probably more of an apples to applies comparison than the 1997-2014 seasons are, given the youth and lack of continuity that we've dealt with since the "one-and-done factory" really took off with the 2015 team. So a 6-loss (.700 win %) season would be right in the middle of the pack for Duke in the freshman-dominated rotation era.
Maybe. The fewer seasons you include, the data becomes a lot less worthwhile. First, you talk about 3 of the past 7 seasons, when I can't see any reason to exclude 2015 from your freshman-dominated rotation theory (which would make it 3 of 8). Second, in two of the three seasons under .700, Duke's seasons were derailed by injuries, and in the other we didn't have the quality of recruit that we've generally had in the OAD era (and that we have this season). Not only that, in one of the seasons under .700 (2017), we had three upperclassmen and a sophomore in the starting lineup, and thus that season didn't have a "lack of continuity" problem at all (making the "under" 2 of 7).
Finally, what's the evidence that having a lot of talented freshmen in your rotation leads to more losses (the justification for excluding the previous 18 seasons)? In the past 39 seasons, Duke freshmen played 40% or more of the team's minutes eight times. The only two teams not to exceed a 70% winning percentage were 2021 (lower quality recruit, i.e., no top 5 or top 10 recruits and only two top 20 recruits) and 2016 (season derailed by co-captain Amile Jefferson's season-ending injury).
Code:
Season %frosh Win% Top 5 Top 10 Top 20
2018 67.5% 0.722 2 3 4
2019 61.0% 0.778 3 3 4
2015 50.0% 0.833 1 2 3
2021 49.4% 0.500 0 0 2
2016 46.8% 0.611 1 1 3
2000 45.9% 0.938 1 2 3
2020 44.5% 0.750 1 1 2
2022 43.6% 0.800 1 1 3
FWIW, so far this season, freshmen have played 55.2% of the team's minutes and has three top 5, top 10, and top 20 recruits.
A sample of eight is obviously not enough to draw any firm conclusions (either way), but I don't see any evidence supporting the hypothesis that Duke teams with less experience win fewer conference games.