Whitehead

[Steven43]

[QUOTE=53n206;1550010]

Wasn't Tatum the 3rd overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft?[/QUOTe
Perhaps NBA scouts are better talent evaluators than ACC sportswriters.

Don’t tell that to Darko Miličić!

[dukelifer]

That wasn't the criteria. It was "played like a future NBA All Star in their one-and-done year". Deng was very good as a freshman. But 3rd Team All-ACC doesn't scream future NBA All Star. And it wasn't for about a decade or so before Deng actually became an NBA All Star.



Ingram played well at Duke. That wasn't the criteria. It was "played like a future NBA All Star."

To simplify, maybe think about it in more concrete terms: top-5 recruit and All-American as a freshman. That's the idea that Steven43 was trying to convey. It's pretty rare for that to happen. We've been fortunate to have a few: Parker, Okafor, Bagley, Williamson, Barrett, and Banchero. We've had others who were good players, but not the type of players that Steven was referring to.

Of course only Zion has been an All Star and two of those mentioned are out of the league. I would guess Paolo may get there- Barrett may have one year as an All-Star.

[CDu]

Wasn't Tatum the 3rd overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft?

Yes. But he was drafted there as much based on his potential as his actual production.

For a more extreme example, take Patrick Williams was drafted 4th despite not averaging 10 ppg or being on any of the All-ACC teams.

[Steven43]

Of course only Zion has been an All Star and two of those mentioned are out of the league. I would guess Paolo may get there- Barrett may have one year as an All-Star.

My point was not about NBA potential or NBA results. For some reason I mentioned the NBA All-Star thing when what I really was thinking about was being on the level of National Player of the Year as a college freshman. It’s rare, though we’ve had two in the past five years.

Again, it was just a somewhat clumsy attempt at saying that even our most elite recruits are more likely to be on the level of Lively and Whitehead than on the level of Williamson and Banchero. That’s all.

[Jeffrey]

Ingram played well at Duke. That wasn't the criteria. It was "played like a future NBA All Star."

To simplify, maybe think about it in more concrete terms: top-5 recruit and All-American as a freshman. That's the idea that Steven43 was trying to convey. It's pretty rare for that to happen. We've been fortunate to have a few: Parker, Okafor, Bagley, Williamson, Barrett, and Banchero. We've had others who were good players, but not the type of players that Steven was referring to.

Ingram was named a third-team All-American by CBS Sports. Ingram was ACC Rookie of the Year and AP All-American honorable mention.

“All he did in college was generate one of the best seasons ever for a young player at Duke, ranking among the school’s all-time freshman leaders in scoring (third), three-pointers (second) and 20-point games (tied for second).”

https://www.latimes.com/sports/laker...nap-story.html

[Jeffrey]

My point was not about NBA potential or NBA results. For some reason I mentioned the NBA All-Star thing when what I really was thinking about was being on the level of National Player of the Year as a college freshman. It’s rare, though we’ve had two in the past five years.

Again, it was just a somewhat clumsy attempt at saying that even our most elite recruits are more likely to be on the level of Lively and Whitehead than on the level of Williamson and Banchero. That’s all.

Strongly agree! I’d even say definitely clumsy.

Of course, my wife says, I’m easily confused.

[CDu]

Ingram was named a third-team All-American by CBS Sports. Ingram was ACC Rookie of the Year and AP All-American honorable mention.

“All he did in college was generate one of the best seasons ever for a young player at Duke, ranking among the school’s all-time freshman leaders in scoring (third), three-pointers (second) and 20-point games (tied for second).”

https://www.latimes.com/sports/laker...nap-story.html

Therefore, a very good player, not a consensus All-American (or even an All-American on any of the groups that do such a thing.

[tommy]

[QUOTE=53n206;1550010]

Wasn't Tatum the 3rd overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft?[/QUOTe
Perhaps NBA scouts are better talent evaluators than ACC sportswriters.

Of course they are.

And most non-professional observers could see it too. The kid was special.

Both things are true.

And it’s because they saw the obvious all-star level potential in Tatum, based substantially on his play at Duke, that the Celtics drafted him so high. All-Conference selection has almost nothing to do with a player’s future projection in the NBA. Which is why second team all-ACC selection Dwayne Bacon was selected 40th, which is 37 spots behind 3rd team Tatum, and who is playing in Greek Basket now while Tatum is NBA MVP caliber.

[AZLA]

[QUOTE=tommy;1550039]

Of course they are.

And most non-professional observers could see it too. The kid was special.

Both things are true.

And it’s because they saw the obvious all-star level potential in Tatum, based substantially on his play at Duke, that the Celtics drafted him so high. All-Conference selection has almost nothing to do with a player’s future projection in the NBA. Which is why second team all-ACC selection Dwayne Bacon was selected 40th, which is 37 spots behind 3rd team Tatum, and who is playing in Greek Basket now while Tatum is NBA MVP caliber.

I was told by people on this board I was “nuts” and hyperbolic for saying Tatum was undervalued at 3, and that his game and stats would make him an all star like Durant. It’s so much fun watching him dominate.

[Steven43]

[QUOTE=AZLA;1550044]

I was told by people on this board I was “nuts” and hyperbolic for saying Tatum was undervalued at 3, and that his game and stats would make him an all star like Durant. It’s so much fun watching him dominate.

Duke fans on this board felt you were overvaluing Tatum in thinking he would be an All Star? That’s a bit surprising. I mean, sure, the vast majority of NBA players never get anywhere near that level. However, Tatum had shown considerable potential during his one year at Duke.

I vividly remember when he entered his first game at Cameron. I was sitting on the court with my son under one of the baskets, and after seeing up-close his graceful yet explosive athleticism combined with a fluidity and an almost panther-like movement I turned to my son and said “This guy is different. There’s something special about him.” No, I’m not claiming to have foreseen NBA First Team in his future, but it was obvious that he was a level above even the other elite Duke athletes I had seen up close since I first started attending games in CIS in 2000.

Though I was disappointed in his play in the Finals against Golden State, I think he learned a lot from that experience and it’s made him an even better player. He’s on the shortlist of my all-time favorites having starred for both of my teams — Duke and the Boston Celtics.

[Jeffrey]

He’s on the shortlist of my all-time favorites having starred for both of my teams — Duke and the Boston Celtics. 🍀

Absolutely, much preferred to Kyrie!

[DukieInBrasil]

[QUOTE=53n206;1550010]

Wasn't Tatum the 3rd overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft?[/QUOTe
Perhaps NBA scouts are better talent evaluators than ACC sportswriters.

many people on this board are confusing the job of sportswriters vs. GMs. Sportswriters' job is to pick who played the best in that particular college season (although sometimes they reward career performance as well). Their job is not to predict who will be the best pro. That is a GM's job. Many players are placed on 1st team AA or ACC teams by legitmately playing much better than guys drafted much higher than them who did not get placed on any all anything teams. It is entirely true that Ingram or Tatum were obviously going to be better pros while at the same time not producing as well at the college level in their particular year as other guys who never even made the NBA.

[sagegrouse]

[QUOTE=DukieInBrasil;1550061]

many people on this board are confusing the job of sportswriters vs. GMs. Sportswriters' job is to pick who played the best in that particular college season (although sometimes they reward career performance as well). Their job is not to predict who will be the best pro. That is a GM's job. Many players are placed on 1st team AA or ACC teams by legitmately playing much better than guys drafted much higher than them who did not get placed on any all anything teams. It is entirely true that Ingram or Tatum were obviously going to be better pros while at the same time not producing as well at the college level in their particular year as other guys who never even made the NBA.

Curmudgeon here. Once the ACC expanded beyond its traditional range, many sportswriters have gotten votes who are far less connected to teams and players than those of 20+ years ago.

[House P]

To simplify, maybe think about it in more concrete terms: top-5 recruit and All-American as a freshman. That's the idea that Steven43 was trying to convey. It's pretty rare for that to happen. We've been fortunate to have a few: Parker, Okafor, Bagley, Williamson, Barrett, and Banchero. We've had others who were good players, but not the type of players that Steven was referring to.

Again, it was just a somewhat clumsy attempt at saying that even our most elite recruits are more likely to be on the level of Lively and Whitehead than on the level of Williamson and Banchero. That’s all.

For what it is worth, the chart below lists the Freshman stats and honors of the Top 5 RSCI players who played at Duke.

Of the 16 Top 5 players prior to Lively and Whitehead, 13 were All-ACC (min Honorable Mention), 11 were AP All-Americans (min Honorable Mention) and one played like an All-American for the 11 games he was on the court (Kyrie).

It is a bit ridiculous to consider that Jayson Tatum and Kyrie Irving are not among the 11 most honored Duke Freshmen of the RSCI era!

Year
RSCI
Player
Duke
KenPom
Draft
#
Draft
Year
G
GS
MPG
PPG
RPG
APG
BPG
Start%
AP
Honors
ACC
Honors

2019
4
Zion Williamson
4
1
2019
33
33
30.0
22.6
8.9
2.1
1.8
100%
NPOY
POY

2019
1
R.J. Barrett
4
3
2019
38
38
35.3
22.6
7.6
4.3
0.4
100%
1st Team
1st Team

2018
1
Marvin Bagley III
3
2
2018
33
32
33.8
21
11.1
1.5
0.9
97%
1st Team
POY

2014
3
Jabari Parker
8
2
2014
35
35
30.7
19.1
8.7
1.2
1.2
100%
1st Team
POY

2015
1
Jahlil Okafor
3
3
2015
38
38
30.1
17.3
8.5
1.3
1.4
100%
1st Team
POY

2020
5
Vernon Carey
5
32
2020
31
30
24.9
17.8
8.8
1.0
1.6
97%
2nd Team
1st Team

2022
2
Paolo Banchero
8
1
2022
39
39
33.0
17.2
7.8
3.2
0.9
100%
3rd Team
1st Team

2012
2
Austin Rivers
19
10
2012
34
33
33.2
15.5
3.4
2.1
0
97%
Hon Mention
1st Team

2016
4
Brandon Ingram
17
2
2016
36
34
34.6
17.3
6.8
2
1.4
94%
Hon Mention
2nd Team

2000
3
Jason Williams
5
2
2002
34
34
34.0
14.5
4.2
6.5
0.2
100%
Hon Mention
3rd Team

2004
2
Loul Deng
1
7
2004
37
32
31.1
15.1
6.9
1.8
1.1
86%
Hon Mention
3rd Team

2017
3
Jayson Tatum
14
3
2017
29
27
33.3
16.8
7.3
2.1
1.1
93%

3rd Team

2019
2
Cam Reddish
4
10
2019
36
35
29.7
13.5
3.7
1.9
0.6
97%

Hon Mention

2011
2
Kyrie Irving
2
1
2011
11
8
27.5
17.5
3.4
4.3
0.5
73%



2018
5
Trevon Duval
3


37
34
29.7
10.3
2.0
5.6
0.1
92%



2023
2
Derek Lively
15


12
10
17.1
4.0
3.5
0.8
2
83%



2023
1
Dariq Whitehead
15


10
1
17.2
7.6
2.2
1
0.1
10%



2017
2
Harry Giles
14
20
2017
26
6
11.5
3.9
3.8
0.3
0.7
23%

Here are the median values of the pre-2023 guys.

MPG: 30.9 (Loul Deng, Jabari Parker)
PPG: 17.2 (Paolo Banchero, Jalil Okafor)
RPG: 7.1 (Loul Deng, Jayson Tatum)
Honors: AP Honorable Mention, 1st/2nd team All-ACC (Austin Rivers, Brandon Ingram)
Draft Position: 3 (RJ Barrett, Jahlil Okafor, Jayson Tatum)

I still have high hopes for Lively and Whitehead, but it seems fairly unlikely that they will make their way very far up this list by the end of the season.

[kAzE]

I was told by people on this board I was “nuts” and hyperbolic for saying Tatum was undervalued at 3, and that his game and stats would make him an all star like Durant. It’s so much fun watching him dominate.

I'm pretty sure he would have been the #1 overall pick if the Celtics hadn't swindled the 76ers into that swap. Danny Ainge knew Tatum was the best player in the draft.

That actually was a hell of a draft though, despite most of the top 10 being pretty underwhelming. Donovan Mitchell (just had a 71 point game), Bam Adebayo, De'Aaron Fox, OG Anunoby (Probably 1st team all-defense this year), John Collins, Kyle Kuzma are all potential all-star type of players.

[gofurman]

For what it is worth, the chart below lists the Freshman stats and honors of the Top 5 RSCI players who played at Duke.

Of the 16 Top 5 players prior to Lively and Whitehead, 13 were All-ACC (min Honorable Mention), 11 were AP All-Americans (min Honorable Mention) and one played like an All-American for the 11 games he was on the court (Kyrie).

It is a bit ridiculous to consider that Jayson Tatum and Kyrie Irving are not among the 11 most honored Duke Freshmen of the RSCI era!

Year
RSCI
Player
Duke
KenPom
Draft
#
Draft
Year
G
GS
MPG
PPG
RPG
APG
BPG
Start%
AP
Honors
ACC
Honors

2019
4
Zion Williamson
4
1
2019
33
33
30.0
22.6
8.9
2.1
1.8
100%
NPOY
POY

2019
1
R.J. Barrett
4
3
2019
38
38
35.3
22.6
7.6
4.3
0.4
100%
1st Team
1st Team

2018
1
Marvin Bagley III
3
2
2018
33
32
33.8
21
11.1
1.5
0.9
97%
1st Team
POY

2014
3
Jabari Parker
8
2
2014
35
35
30.7
19.1
8.7
1.2
1.2
100%
1st Team
POY

2015
1
Jahlil Okafor
3
3
2015
38
38
30.1
17.3
8.5
1.3
1.4
100%
1st Team
POY

2020
5
Vernon Carey
5
32
2020
31
30
24.9
17.8
8.8
1.0
1.6
97%
2nd Team
1st Team

2022
2
Paolo Banchero
8
1
2022
39
39
33.0
17.2
7.8
3.2
0.9
100%
3rd Team
1st Team

2012
2
Austin Rivers
19
10
2012
34
33
33.2
15.5
3.4
2.1
0
97%
Hon Mention
1st Team

2016
4
Brandon Ingram
17
2
2016
36
34
34.6
17.3
6.8
2
1.4
94%
Hon Mention
2nd Team

2000
3
Jason Williams
5
2
2002
34
34
34.0
14.5
4.2
6.5
0.2
100%
Hon Mention
3rd Team

2004
2
Loul Deng
1
7
2004
37
32
31.1
15.1
6.9
1.8
1.1
86%
Hon Mention
3rd Team

2017
3
Jayson Tatum
14
3
2017
29
27
33.3
16.8
7.3
2.1
1.1
93%

3rd Team

2019
2
Cam Reddish
4
10
2019
36
35
29.7
13.5
3.7
1.9
0.6
97%

Hon Mention

2011
2
Kyrie Irving
2
1
2011
11
8
27.5
17.5
3.4
4.3
0.5
73%



2018
5
Trevon Duval
3


37
34
29.7
10.3
2.0
5.6
0.1
92%



2023
2
Derek Lively
15


12
10
17.1
4.0
3.5
0.8
2
83%



2023
1
Dariq Whitehead
15


10
1
17.2
7.6
2.2
1
0.1
10%



2017
2
Harry Giles
14
20
2017
26
6
11.5
3.9
3.8
0.3
0.7
23%

Here are the median values of the pre-2023 guys.

MPG: 30.9 (Loul Deng, Jabari Parker)
PPG: 17.2 (Paolo Banchero, Jalil Okafor)
RPG: 7.1 (Loul Deng, Jayson Tatum)
Honors: AP Honorable Mention, 1st/2nd team All-ACC (Austin Rivers, Brandon Ingram)
Draft Position: 3 (RJ Barrett, Jahlil Okafor, Jayson Tatum)

I still have high hopes for Lively and Whitehead, but it seems fairly unlikely that they will make their way very far up this list by the end of the season.

Good data. Like it. You know what it also shows ? Not a single guy from the 2010 national title team. TEAM. TEAM. TEAM

We need contributions from Roach. Filipowski and Whitehead consistently. And maybe Blake’s or one other. 3-4 guys we can count on.

[House P]

Good data. Like it. You know what it also shows ? Not a single guy from the 2010 national title team. TEAM. TEAM. TEAM

We need contributions from Roach. Filipowski and Whitehead consistently. And maybe Blake’s or one other. 3-4 guys we can count on.

Kyle Singler (6th ranked recruit in 2007-08) just missed the list. As a Freshman, Kyle was 3rd team All-ACC and the Rookie of the Year.

Chris Duhon (RSCI #6), Tyus Jones (RSCI #7), and Wendell Carter (RSCI #7) also just missed the list. None were All-Americans, but Duhon was ACC Freshman of the Year, while Jones and Carter were 3rd and 2nd team All-ACC, respectively.

I also realized that I left Josh McRoberts off the list. Josh was the #1 RSCI recruit for the 2005-06 season. He didn’t earn any All American honors, but his 24.5 MPG, 8.7 PPG, and 5.7 RPG earned him a place on the All-ACC Freshman team. That probably places him just above Duval on the list.

[sagegrouse]

Kyle Singler (6th ranked recruit in 2007-08) just missed the list. As a Freshman, Kyle was 3rd team All-ACC and the Rookie of the Year.

Chris Duhon (RSCI #6), Tyus Jones (RSCI #7), and Wendell Carter (RSCI #7) also just missed the list. None were All-Americans, but Duhon was ACC Freshman of the Year, while Jones and Carter were 3rd and 2nd team All-ACC, respectively.

I also realized that I left Josh McRoberts off the list. Josh was the #1 RSCI recruit for the 2005-06 season. He didn’t earn any All American honors, but his 24.5 MPG, 8.7 PPG, and 5.7 RPG earned him a place on the All-ACC Freshman team. That probably places him just above Duval on the list.

Doesn't fit your framework, but wasn't Kyrie the #1 pick in the 2011 NBA draft? He was clearly on track to be a 1st team A-A.

[DukieInBrasil]

For what it is worth, the chart below lists the Freshman stats and honors of the Top 5 RSCI players who played at Duke.

Of the 16 Top 5 players prior to Lively and Whitehead, 13 were All-ACC (min Honorable Mention), 11 were AP All-Americans (min Honorable Mention) and one played like an All-American for the 11 games he was on the court (Kyrie).

It is a bit ridiculous to consider that Jayson Tatum and Kyrie Irving are not among the 11 most honored Duke Freshmen of the RSCI era!
Here are the median values of the pre-2023 guys.
MPG: 30.9 (Loul Deng, Jabari Parker)
PPG: 17.2 (Paolo Banchero, Jalil Okafor)
RPG: 7.1 (Loul Deng, Jayson Tatum)
Honors: AP Honorable Mention, 1st/2nd team All-ACC (Austin Rivers, Brandon Ingram)
Draft Position: 3 (RJ Barrett, Jahlil Okafor, Jayson Tatum)
I still have high hopes for Lively and Whitehead, but it seems fairly unlikely that they will make their way very far up this list by the end of the season.

Doesn't fit your framework, but wasn't Kyrie the #1 pick in the 2011 NBA draft? He was clearly on track to be a 1st team A-A.

the OP addressed that point

[dukelifer]

Good data. Like it. You know what it also shows ? Not a single guy from the 2010 national title team. TEAM. TEAM. TEAM

We need contributions from Roach. Filipowski and Whitehead consistently. And maybe Blake’s or one other. 3-4 guys we can count on.

Young has been pretty consistent