This Week in the ACC - 11/28-12/4

[CameronDuke]

UVa is 5 on Kenpom now. Their offense is 5 and their defense is 19. Their offense being at 5 right now is extremely impressive.

[UrinalCake]

The three losses for the ACC yesterday were by a combined 70 points, whereas the three wins were by 12 (including the 7-point double OT game). Pretty good job of maximizing our points.

[scottdude8]

UVa is 5 on Kenpom now. Their offense is 5 and their defense is 19. Their offense being at 5 right now is extremely impressive.

Yeah, it was very clear from the eye test that their offense is much better than we've come to expect from UVA (either that or Michigan's D is suspect which... is also true). My worry the whole game was that Michigan was going to have to keep scoring at their first half pace to stay with UVAs offense in the second half, which is something you rarely associate with a Tony Bennett team. I was especially impressed with some clutch mid-range shots the Hoo's sunk.

The fact that we only have to play UVA once (albeit on the road), while UNC has to play them twice, could play a big role in the ACC race.

[CDu]

UVa is 5 on Kenpom now. Their offense is 5 and their defense is 19. Their offense being at 5 right now is extremely impressive.

Pretty sure UVa was in the top 5 in KenPom coming into the season. KP's numbers are weighted by his preseason rankings, and his preseason rankings liked UVa a lot already.

Torvik has slightly different numbers. He has UVa as the #13 offense and the #37 defense (and #16 overall). My guess is that UVa is somewhere in between those two in reality: a top 9-10 offense, and a defense in the 25-30 range. The difference between the two being that KenPom had UVa rated really high coming in, while Torvik had them at around #18 coming in.

Regardless, whether they are a top 5 team, a top 10 team, or a top 15 team, it's an unusual team for Bennett: very good offensively, but not so great defensively.

[CDu]

The three losses for the ACC yesterday were by a combined 70 points, whereas the three wins were by 12 (including the 7-point double OT game). Pretty good job of maximizing our points.

Yeah, the conference could very easily be 1-7 or 2-6 had the opponents been more appropriately distributed based on this year's talent levels (which is of course next to impossible to predict in advance). Had UVa faced Purdue, Wake faced Michigan, and Clemson faced Wisconsin, we're probably 0-6 yesterday instead of 3-3.

But, we'll take it.

[CameronDuke]

Pretty sure UVa was in the top 5 in KenPom coming into the season. KP's numbers are weighted by his preseason rankings, and his preseason rankings liked UVa a lot already.

Torvik has slightly different numbers. He has UVa as the #13 offense and the #37 defense (and #16 overall). My guess is that UVa is somewhere in between those two in reality: a top 9-10 offense, and a defense in the 25-30 range. The difference between the two being that KenPom had UVa rated really high coming in, while Torvik had them at around #18 coming in.

Regardless, whether they are a top 5 team, a top 10 team, or a top 15 team, it's an unusual team for Bennett: very good offensively, but not so great defensively.

Agree that this is an atypical team for Coach Bennett. They are finally scoring at more than a snail’s pace this year. Their guards of Beekman and Franklin are big and physical and scoring about 11-12 PPG right now. Kihei is as experienced as anyone in the country and knows the system in and out. Vander Plas off the bench fits their program and style perfectly. One thing that concerns me a bit is they are not a very deep team. Last night, only 7 players got double digit minutes and one of those was McKneely who played 10 minutes and didn’t score or have a major impact on the game. He’s a freshman and will be good one day but like I said, they’re not very deep.

[arnie]

The three losses for the ACC yesterday were by a combined 70 points, whereas the three wins were by 12 (including the 7-point double OT game). Pretty good job of maximizing our points.

Yep and if ACC wins this overall you can be assured Bilas will say “but the Big Ten scored more points overall”.

[CDu]

Agree that this is an atypical team for Coach Bennett. They are finally scoring at more than a snail’s pace this year. Their guards of Beekman and Franklin are big and physical and scoring about 11-12 PPG right now. Kihei is as experienced as anyone in the country and knows the system in and out. Vander Plas off the bench fits their program and style perfectly. One thing that concerns me a bit is they are not a very deep team. Last night, only 7 players got double digit minutes and one of those was McKneely who played 10 minutes and didn’t score or have a major impact on the game. He’s a freshman and will be good one day but like I said, they’re not very deep.

Their problem is that they aren't great defensively, but they still play at a snail's pace (2nd slowest in the country). They've given up 60+ points in 4 of 6 games so far. In their heyday, they'd give up 60 in less than 10 games all season. That puts them at risk if the offense isn't clicking.

So far, they are doing pretty well in terms of offensive efficiency (very well for them compared to the last few years). But if the defense doesn't improve, they'll be more subject to loss risk than a Bennett team ideally would.

It feels a bit like the 2021 team, which was a pretty good team (#22 overall), but the defense could be had. This team seems to be a bit better than that one, but I'm not sure yet how much better they are. But it has a similar distribution of offense to defense (i.e., more offense than defense) and general overall quality.

[CameronDuke]

Their problem is that they aren't great defensively, but they still play at a snail's pace (2nd slowest in the country). They've given up 60+ points in 4 of 6 games so far. In their heyday, they'd give up 60 in less than 10 games all season. That puts them at risk if the offense isn't clicking.

So far, they are doing pretty well in terms of offensive efficiency (very well for them compared to the last few years). But if the defense doesn't improve, they'll be more subject to loss risk than a Bennett team ideally would.

It feels a bit like the 2021 team, which was a pretty good team (#22 overall), but the defense could be had. This team seems to be a bit better than that one, but I'm not sure yet how much better they are. But it has a similar distribution of offense to defense (i.e., more offense than defense) and general overall quality.

Agree it does feel sort of like the 2021 team. One test that will be a good barometer for their offense will be the Houston at UVa game on 12/17. Houston is 2 on Kenpom in defense. If they can score on them, I will be pretty surprised. That defense is impressive.

[JasonEvans]

The fact that we only have to play UVA once (albeit on the road), while UNC has to play them twice, could play a big role in the ACC race.

I suspect Virginia is the team to beat in the ACC at this point, not the Tarheels.

[scottdude8]

I suspect Virginia is the team to beat in the ACC at this point, not the Tarheels.

Agreed 100%... so if it is a 3 horse race, I'm happy that two of the horses have to play each other twice, while we get off the hook slightly against the lead horse.

[CDu]

Agreed 100%... so if it is a 3 horse race, I'm happy that two of the horses have to play each other twice, while we get off the hook slightly against the lead horse.

But this is true only if the lead horse is UNC. If the lead horse is UVa, then we play the same number of tough games as UVa but UVa gets the edge by that head to head being at home.

[PackMan97]

I suspect Virginia is the team to beat in the ACC at this point, not the Tarheels.

*cough* NC State *cough*

[scottdude8]

But this is true only if the lead horse is UNC. If the lead horse is UVa, then we play the same number of tough games as UVa but UVa gets the edge by that head to head being at home.

Ahh yeah, good point. Chalk that one up to posting quick thoughts during the workday.

[Wahoo2000]

Quick thoughts on UVA by a Wahoo fan:

1. Depth. This team is actually significantly deeper than last year, though still not "very" deep. Bennett has shown over the past 4-5ish years that in "big" games, he's going to tighten the rotation to the starters plus one bench guard and one bench big mostly. The top 7 in the rotation, vs the best competition, will probably play over 90% of the total available minutes. Last night we had some trouble finding a 3rd guard to pair with Beekman and Clark as Franklin was beyond awful offensively, and McKneeley is still a little green, esp on the defensive end, where he's kind of a liability. When Franklin is playing well though, those 4 make an excellent backcourt/wing rotation. Up front, Shedrick will take almost all the min available at the 5 spot, excepting foul trouble, which gives Caffaro some token minutes, and sometimes we go small and don't play a true center. Gardner and Vander Plas play 100% of the min at the 4, excepting some VERY limited time for Dunn in the frontcourt (usually just vs lesser competition).

2. Defense. Our starters at this point are close to as well versed as you can be in the packline. Their limitations are almost solely physical (pretty undersized at the 1/3/4 spots - Clark/Franklin/Gardner, and shedrick still needs a little more bulk/strength). Vander Plas has picked things up surprisingly well, and has been a sneaky good defender even vs some mismatches. In the end, we just lack the REALLY elite size/strength/length/athleticism to be an absolutely shutdown D. The only guys on the roster with the experience and physical attributes to dominate defensively i think are Beekman and Shedrick - and even shedrick is still not quite 100% there (though given the past routes of Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins, Diakite, etc it seems like he will be all the way there by the end of this season). I put the ceiling on this D at about a top 15-20ish D.

3. Offense. No absolute alpha like a Brogdon, or even guys with takeover ability like Guy/Jerome/Hunter. Still, the balance is pretty incredible. On any given night, It's ZERO shock for any one of 6 guys to lead us in scoring (Clark/Beekman/Franklin/Gardner/Shedrick/Vander Plas). Any of those guys can throw up 20pts vs mediocre competition, maybe more like 15ish vs a good team/defense. That balance, as well as the balance/variety of scoring (getting more pts from the FT line than ANY Bennett team EVER by a wide margin, multiple guys shooting REALLY well from 3) has made the offense elite as a whole, even if no individual part is super-elite. I fully expect the 3pt shooting and FT rate to regress a bit, but other things can actually improve as more chemistry develops, esp w/r/t new guys Vander plas, McKneeley, and Dunn getting more time with the vets. I think the ceiling for this offense is about where it is now, a top 5-15ish offense.

Even with slight improvement over the remainder of the season, Virginia should challenge for the ACC reg season crown, and prob end up in the top 10 and be in the mix for a 1-3 seed in the NCAAs. I think ultimately, the lack of a lottery-type talent will hold us back from making a deep tournament run, though it's far from impossible.

[tommy]

Their problem is that they aren't great defensively, but they still play at a snail's pace (2nd slowest in the country). They've given up 60+ points in 4 of 6 games so far. In their heyday, they'd give up 60 in less than 10 games all season. That puts them at risk if the offense isn't clicking.

So far, they are doing pretty well in terms of offensive efficiency (very well for them compared to the last few years). But if the defense doesn't improve, they'll be more subject to loss risk than a Bennett team ideally would.

It feels a bit like the 2021 team, which was a pretty good team (#22 overall), but the defense could be had. This team seems to be a bit better than that one, but I'm not sure yet how much better they are. But it has a similar distribution of offense to defense (i.e., more offense than defense) and general overall quality.

I suspect this defense is going to be much improved over the course of the year. Despite the hand-wringing about it, UVA has still given up over 70 points just once this year, to Baylor, who despite last night's disaster at Marquette is still a very very talented team. And against Michigan last night, who was shooting lights out especially in the first half at home, UVA held them to 23 in the second half and 68 overall. There won't be any easy nights against them at that end of the floor.

And no, I don't think there's much of an argument at this point that they're the favorite to win the ACC regular season.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Quick thoughts on UVA by a Wahoo fan:

1. Depth. This team is actually significantly deeper than last year, though still not "very" deep. Bennett has shown over the past 4-5ish years that in "big" games, he's going to tighten the rotation to the starters plus one bench guard and one bench big mostly. The top 7 in the rotation, vs the best competition, will probably play over 90% of the total available minutes. Last night we had some trouble finding a 3rd guard to pair with Beekman and Clark as Franklin was beyond awful offensively, and McKneeley is still a little green, esp on the defensive end, where he's kind of a liability. When Franklin is playing well though, those 4 make an excellent backcourt/wing rotation. Up front, Shedrick will take almost all the min available at the 5 spot, excepting foul trouble, which gives Caffaro some token minutes, and sometimes we go small and don't play a true center. Gardner and Vander Plas play 100% of the min at the 4, excepting some VERY limited time for Dunn in the frontcourt (usually just vs lesser competition).

2. Defense. Our starters at this point are close to as well versed as you can be in the packline. Their limitations are almost solely physical (pretty undersized at the 1/3/4 spots - Clark/Franklin/Gardner, and shedrick still needs a little more bulk/strength). Vander Plas has picked things up surprisingly well, and has been a sneaky good defender even vs some mismatches. In the end, we just lack the REALLY elite size/strength/length/athleticism to be an absolutely shutdown D. The only guys on the roster with the experience and physical attributes to dominate defensively i think are Beekman and Shedrick - and even shedrick is still not quite 100% there (though given the past routes of Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins, Diakite, etc it seems like he will be all the way there by the end of this season). I put the ceiling on this D at about a top 15-20ish D.

3. Offense. No absolute alpha like a Brogdon, or even guys with takeover ability like Guy/Jerome/Hunter. Still, the balance is pretty incredible. On any given night, It's ZERO shock for any one of 6 guys to lead us in scoring (Clark/Beekman/Franklin/Gardner/Shedrick/Vander Plas). Any of those guys can throw up 20pts vs mediocre competition, maybe more like 15ish vs a good team/defense. That balance, as well as the balance/variety of scoring (getting more pts from the FT line than ANY Bennett team EVER by a wide margin, multiple guys shooting REALLY well from 3) has made the offense elite as a whole, even if no individual part is super-elite. I fully expect the 3pt shooting and FT rate to regress a bit, but other things can actually improve as more chemistry develops, esp w/r/t new guys Vander plas, McKneeley, and Dunn getting more time with the vets. I think the ceiling for this offense is about where it is now, a top 5-15ish offense.

Even with slight improvement over the remainder of the season, Virginia should challenge for the ACC reg season crown, and prob end up in the top 10 and be in the mix for a 1-3 seed in the NCAAs. I think ultimately, the lack of a lottery-type talent will hold us back from making a deep tournament run, though it's far from impossible.

I'm going to push back on your first point a little. UVA really only functionally goes 6 deep - McKneely and Caffaro can eat minutes and even make some contributions against the right opponent, but they're basically treading water out there. McKneely and Dunn will certainly contribute a great deal more eventually, but in terms of actual, make-a-difference depth, it's the starters and Vander Plas.

[gumbomoop]

I suspect Virginia is the team to beat in the ACC at this point, not the Tarheels.

I agree, and have thought so since preseason. On some thread weeks back — the one where DBA was buying/selling stock in several ACC teams and where JE correctly pointed to Clemson’s soft schedule — I bought stock in the Hoos, guessing they’d finish 16-4. And since then, after looking a bit more carefully at ACC in-conference schedules, it looks to me as if the Hoos have what can be plausibly, though not definitively, claimed is a slightly easier schedule than either Duke or UNC. (ND and Clemson are advantaged, too.)

[CDu]

Quick thoughts on UVA by a Wahoo fan:

1. Depth. This team is actually significantly deeper than last year, though still not "very" deep. Bennett has shown over the past 4-5ish years that in "big" games, he's going to tighten the rotation to the starters plus one bench guard and one bench big mostly. The top 7 in the rotation, vs the best competition, will probably play over 90% of the total available minutes. Last night we had some trouble finding a 3rd guard to pair with Beekman and Clark as Franklin was beyond awful offensively, and McKneeley is still a little green, esp on the defensive end, where he's kind of a liability. When Franklin is playing well though, those 4 make an excellent backcourt/wing rotation. Up front, Shedrick will take almost all the min available at the 5 spot, excepting foul trouble, which gives Caffaro some token minutes, and sometimes we go small and don't play a true center. Gardner and Vander Plas play 100% of the min at the 4, excepting some VERY limited time for Dunn in the frontcourt (usually just vs lesser competition).

2. Defense. Our starters at this point are close to as well versed as you can be in the packline. Their limitations are almost solely physical (pretty undersized at the 1/3/4 spots - Clark/Franklin/Gardner, and shedrick still needs a little more bulk/strength). Vander Plas has picked things up surprisingly well, and has been a sneaky good defender even vs some mismatches. In the end, we just lack the REALLY elite size/strength/length/athleticism to be an absolutely shutdown D. The only guys on the roster with the experience and physical attributes to dominate defensively i think are Beekman and Shedrick - and even shedrick is still not quite 100% there (though given the past routes of Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins, Diakite, etc it seems like he will be all the way there by the end of this season). I put the ceiling on this D at about a top 15-20ish D.

3. Offense. No absolute alpha like a Brogdon, or even guys with takeover ability like Guy/Jerome/Hunter. Still, the balance is pretty incredible. On any given night, It's ZERO shock for any one of 6 guys to lead us in scoring (Clark/Beekman/Franklin/Gardner/Shedrick/Vander Plas). Any of those guys can throw up 20pts vs mediocre competition, maybe more like 15ish vs a good team/defense. That balance, as well as the balance/variety of scoring (getting more pts from the FT line than ANY Bennett team EVER by a wide margin, multiple guys shooting REALLY well from 3) has made the offense elite as a whole, even if no individual part is super-elite. I fully expect the 3pt shooting and FT rate to regress a bit, but other things can actually improve as more chemistry develops, esp w/r/t new guys Vander plas, McKneeley, and Dunn getting more time with the vets. I think the ceiling for this offense is about where it is now, a top 5-15ish offense.

Even with slight improvement over the remainder of the season, Virginia should challenge for the ACC reg season crown, and prob end up in the top 10 and be in the mix for a 1-3 seed in the NCAAs. I think ultimately, the lack of a lottery-type talent will hold us back from making a deep tournament run, though it's far from impossible.

I'm going to push back on your first point a little. UVA really only functionally goes 6 deep - McKneely and Caffaro can eat minutes and even make some contributions against the right opponent, but they're basically treading water out there. McKneely and Dunn will certainly contribute a great deal more eventually, but in terms of actual, make-a-difference depth, it's the starters and Vander Plas.

I agree with DarkstarWahoo on point #1. I don't think they realistically have depth. They have bodies, but it's a 6-man team with a couple of guys stealing minutes at this point.

I agree completely with the rest. It's a very good offense that could peak in the #5-10 range, and a very solid defense that could eventually peak in the 15-20 range. Which is of course a really good team, probably top-10 (definitely top-10 if the defense reaches that peak). Not likely to be the juggernaut that the 2018-2019 teams were, in large part because the defense just isn't nearly as good. That made every single game - even the offensive clunkers - winnable for them. This year, I feel like there is more risk because an off-night offensively probably means a loss, whereas at their peak an off-night on offense just meant a very close battle.

The best thing the Hoos have going for them is similar to what the Devils have going for us: the conference doesn't look good. We both should absolutely load up on wins in the conference this year. That said, minimizing the losses to bad teams is going to be critical for seeding purposes. Neither team is going to get a ton of Q1-A games to offset any flubs.

[CameronDuke]

Purdue and FSU are tied 32-32 and it’s almost halftime.