This Week in the ACC - 11/28-12/4

[pfrduke]

Congrats to the state of Virginia for winning the ACC's only pre-conference tourney titles. Still not a lot of glimmers of good performance across the conference as a whole. ACC/B1G challenge is this week and we are underdogs in 10 of the 14; the B1G is favored by an average of 8.5 in their 10 favorite games - the ACC by an average of less than 6 in their 4. Woof. And then we get conference play beginning on the weekend.

Monday
[35]Virginia Tech (-12) hosts [154]Minnesota (7:00, ESPN2)
[121]Pittsburgh (+9) at [46]Northwestern (9:00, ESPN2)

Tuesday
[49]NC State (-21) hosts [311]William & Mary (7:00, ACCNX)
[171]Louisville (+10) hosts [24]Maryland (7:00, ESPN2)
[66]Clemson (+1) hosts [33]Penn State (7:00, ESPNU)
[70]Syracuse (+9) at [22]Illinois (7:30, ESPN)
[122]Georgia Tech (+14) at [23]Iowa (9:00, ESPN2/U)
[76]Wake Forest (+7) at [40]Wisconsin (9:00, ESPN2/U)
[5]Virginia (-5) at [53]Michigan (9:30, ESPN)

Wednesday
[20]Duke (-3) hosts [19]Ohio State (7:15, ESPN)
[164]Florida State (+14) hosts [7]Purdue (7:15, ESPN2)
[44]Miami (-3) hosts [36]Rutgers (7:15, ESPNU)
[21]North Carolina (+6) at [11]Indiana (9:15, ESPN)
[78]Notre Dame (+2) hosts [30]Michigan State (9:15, ESPN2)
[107]Boston College (+3) at [111]Nebraska (9:15, ESPNU)

Thursday is dark

Friday
[66]Clemson (-4) hosts [76]Wake Forest (7:00, ACCNX)
[49]NC State (-10) hosts [121]Pittsburgh (7:00, ACCN)
[122]Georgia Tech (-11) hosts [262]Northeastern (7:30, ACCNX)

Saturday
[78]Notre Dame (-2) hosts [70]Syracuse (12:00, ESPN2)
[5]Virginia (-20) hosts [164]Florida State (2:00, ESPN2)
[20]Duke (-13) hosts [107]Boston College (4:00, ACCN)

Sunday
[171]Louisville (+7) hosts [44]Miami (1:00, ACCN)
[35]Virginia Tech (-1) hosts [21]North Carolina (3:00, ACCN)

ACC Non-Conference: 67-34
ACC v. Power 6: 9-18
AAC: 1-2
America East: 0-2
ASUN: 6-2
A-10: 5-2
Big XII: 1-5
Big East: 2-2
Big South: 6-0
Big Ten: 2-5
CAA: 10-1
CUSA: 1-0
Horizon: 2-1
Ivy: 1-0
MAAC: 1-1
MAC: 2-0
MEAC: 4-0
MWC: 1-0
NEC: 2-0
OVC: 2-0
Pac-12: 2-2
Patriot: 4-1
SEC: 1-4
Southern: 3-0
Sun Belt: 3-2
SWAC: 1-0
WAC: 1-1
WCC: 1-1
Non-D1: 1-0

[PackMan97]

[5]Virginia
[20]Duke
[21]North Carolina
[35]Virginia Tech
[44]Miami
[49]NC State
[66]Clemson
[70]Syracuse
[76]Wake Forest
[78]Notre Dame
[107]Boston College
[121]Pittsburgh
[122]Georgia Tech
[164]Florida State
[171]Louisville

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

It's going to be difficult to find Q1 and Q2 wins this season. I can't remember the ACC ever have such a weak bottom.

[CDu]

[5]Virginia
[20]Duke
[21]North Carolina
[35]Virginia Tech
[44]Miami
[49]NC State
[66]Clemson
[70]Syracuse
[76]Wake Forest
[78]Notre Dame
[107]Boston College
[121]Pittsburgh
[122]Georgia Tech
[164]Florida State
[171]Louisville

It's going to be difficult to find Q1 and Q2 wins this season. I can't remember the ACC ever have such a weak bottom.

Eh, there are still a lot of Q1 and Q2 game opportunities for certain programs. Duke, for example, has a projected 9 more Q1 games and 5 more Q2 games still on their schedule, not including the ACC Tournament (which would add an opportunity for another 2-3 Q1/Q2 games to a top-4 seed. So of the 18 ACC games on our schedule, 12 are expected to be Q1 or Q2 games.

It's definitely a down year in the conference though. Not exactly a great environment to build a resume. There are opportunities, but it's probably on paper the weakest of the P6.

[PackMan97]

Eh, there are still a lot of Q1 and Q2 game opportunities for certain programs. Duke, for example, has a projected 9 more Q1 games and 5 more Q2 games still on their schedule, not including the ACC Tournament (which would add an opportunity for another 2-3 Q1/Q2 games to a top-4 seed. So of the 18 ACC games on our schedule, 12 are expected to be Q1 or Q2 games.

It's definitely a down year in the conference though. Not exactly a great environment to build a resume. There are opportunities, but it's probably on paper the weakest of the P6.

Where did you find those numbers?

[CDu]

Where did you find those numbers?

Duke's page on Bart Torvik's site: https://barttorvik.com/team.php?year=2023&team=Duke

Here's State's page: https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=North+Carolina+St.

They have a slightly weaker schedule in conference, so only 12 more Q1/Q2 games (8 more Q1, 4 more Q2), and only 10 of them in conference play.

Obviously all of this is subject to change, but it will probably wind up being fairly close (some teams will move up while others will move down).

The key is that a Q1 road game is a fairly low bar for a P6 school, and a Q2 road game is a REALLY low bar for a P6 school. If you don't have 6-8 Q1/Q2 road games, your conference is REALLY bad. 8 of Duke's 12 Q1/Q2 games are on the road. Their only 2 non-Q2 road games are @BC and @GT. And either of those could conceivably wind up a Q2 if those two teams improve a little bit.

[CDu]

I just realized that NC State isn't in the ACC/Big-10 challenge this year. That's too bad, as they have looked somewhat decent. Instead, Louisville and FSU get sacrificed to Purdue and Maryland. Obviously in this new era of college basketball it's hard to plan these matchups. But that's unfortunate scheduling.

Hopefully the conference can shock everyone and outperform expectations. But right now it looks like a potential landslide: Big-10 is heavily favored (8+ point spread) in 5 contests, ACC just 1; Big-10 is decently favored (4-7 point favorites) in 2 more contests; ACC just 1. And there are 5 tossups (within 3 points either way), with the Big-10 being favored in 3 and the ACC in 2. Overall, the Big-10 is favored in 10 of the 14 matchups. Gonna need some surprisingly good conference mojo over the next few days.

And definitely need VT to hold their end of the bargain tonight as the conference's only heavy favorite.

[PackMan97]

I just realized that NC State isn't in the ACC/Big-10 challenge this year.

Typically the worst team(**) in the ACC is dropped from the challenge.

**Looking at the previous season's results.

[UrinalCake]

CHeats down to #18 in this week's AP poll, one spot below us. Has there ever been a bigger fall for a #1 team?

[ElliottHoo]

Eh, there are still a lot of Q1 and Q2 game opportunities for certain programs. Duke, for example, has a projected 9 more Q1 games and 5 more Q2 games still on their schedule, not including the ACC Tournament (which would add an opportunity for another 2-3 Q1/Q2 games to a top-4 seed. So of the 18 ACC games on our schedule, 12 are expected to be Q1 or Q2 games.

It's definitely a down year in the conference though. Not exactly a great environment to build a resume. There are opportunities, but it's probably on paper the weakest of the P6.

Along these lines, I actually feel bad for Purdue getting stuck with what will likely be a quad 3 game in the challenge. That’s gotta suck.

Maryland’s in the same boat, but I don’t care. Screw those guys.

[Luke102452]

Didn’t see Pitt beating Northwestern by 26 on the road

[scottdude8]

Didn’t see Pitt beating Northwestern by 26 on the road

Should be a nice little boost to the ACC resume assuming it holds… goes to show you that it’s still really early and we still don’t have a full picture of how good teams are!

[tommy]

Should be a nice little boost to the ACC resume assuming it holds… goes to show you that it’s still really early and we still don’t have a full picture of how good teams are!

Same goes for Va Tech beating the Gophers. Every little bit helps.

[gumbomoop]

Same goes for Va Tech beating the Gophers. Every little bit helps.

Did you, or anyone else, see the VT game? They seem to have become a favorite to challenge for top 3-4 in the ACC. A 10-pt win at home against Gophers seems a good, but not necessarily impressive, win. Anyone?

[tommy]

Did you, or anyone else, see the VT game? They seem to have become a favorite to challenge for top 3-4 in the ACC. A 10-pt win at home against Gophers seems a good, but not necessarily impressive, win. Anyone?

The Gophers are at 153 in KenPom, 4-3 overall with no wins against P6 teams. So no, not a particularly impressive win for the Hokies, but it sure beats a loss to them!

[gumbomoop]

The Gophers are at 153 in KenPom, 4-3 overall with no wins against P6 teams. So no, not a particularly impressive win for the Hokies, but it sure beats a loss to them!

Glad the Hokies won. Gladder still if they win their next game, Sun v. Heels in Blacksburg, for which they have the rest of the week to prepare. Hope they lose 2-3 times to Duke and make the NCAAT.

[CDu]

The Gophers are at 153 in KenPom, 4-3 overall with no wins against P6 teams. So no, not a particularly impressive win for the Hokies, but it sure beats a loss to them!

Yeah, a 10-point win is actually less than the spread.

But Pitt beating Northwestern by 30 was surprisingly good!

[jv001]

Yeah, a 10-point win is actually less than the spread.

But Pitt beating Northwestern by 30 was surprisingly good!

Capel over Collins. Neither coach should feel comfortable.

GoDuke!

[Hartford Dukie]

Capel over Collins. Neither coach should feel comfortable.

GoDuke!

I watched much of the game. Agreed both coaches on very hot seats. But if Pitt can play anywhere close to what they played last night, there is hope there. They were on fire from three - 14 for 22, and that's with a couple of garbage time misses - with great, great ball movement - 22 assists on 26 made baskets. They did all this with, believe it or not, Hugley putting up a goose egg - zero points. Now, the question is can they carry that impressive showing to their next games. But Jeff's team showed what they are capable of last night - it was impressive.

[JasonEvans]

Clemson and Virginia are the only ACC teams that would seem to have more than a 5-10% chance of winning tonight... well, I guess Wake has about a 10% chance. Ugly.

[CDu]

Clemson and Virginia are the only ACC teams that would seem to have more than a 5-10% chance of winning tonight... well, I guess Wake has about a 10% chance. Ugly.

It isn't a pretty picture, but it's not quite THAT ugly.

Torvik gives Syracuse a 12% chance, Georgia Tech a 13% chance, Louisville a 14% chance, Clemson a 56% chance, Wake a 26% chance, and UVa a 63% chance. So out of 6 possible wins tonight, we are expected to take home 1.84 of them. Not great by any means, as it means 2-4 is the most likely outcome. Not bad considering that only one of our good teams is playing tonight.

Now, his model probably probably isn't fully capturing how bad Louisville is yet. But it might actually be underestimating Wake's chances a bit.

Still, going into tomorrow's games at 4-4 would not be a bad result. It would give the conference a fighting chance to somehow pull off a draw.