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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    The length of these deals is insane. Thanks for the title Dansby but no way Atlanta would (or should in my opinion) pay $28 million for a 36, 37, or 38 year old shortstop.
    You can think about those deals as more of a 10 year, $350 million dollar contract for Correa and a 9 year, $300 million for Turner. The last years 2-3 years of those deals are essentially deferred payments as those guys will likely retire. It's a way to defray the average annual value for luxury tax purposes.

    So don't think of it as paying $28 million for the age X seasons. Think about it as paying (for example) $40 million for Correa's age 28-34 seasons, $30 million for his age 35 seasons, and $20 million for his age 36 and 37 seasons. Just spreading it out over 13 years instead of specifically in that breakdown.

    And consider the present value of money. That $20 million being spent in 9-10 years is worth a lot less in present value.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    I don't think they have the trade chips left for Adames either but they'll be ok with Grissom as long as he's a serviceable hitter. I think all the talk of "no shift means you need a SS with better range" is overblown. You'll still be able to position them up the middle or wherever most of the balls are hit. If anything 2nd base becomes more important defensively and a healthy Ozzie Albies for 155+ games will be a big help there.
    Yea I think the rumor with Adame was that he was being included in that three way trade.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Could be something wild like that. A few weeks ago his market was around 6 years $150 million. I donít see the Braves coming anywhere close to 10 years $280 million
    Dansby asked for 6/140 during the season and the Braves said no. Really getting hard to imagine a scenario where the Braves re-sign him.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    You can think about those deals as more of a 10 year, $350 million dollar contract for Correa and a 9 year, $300 million for Turner. The last years 2-3 years of those deals are essentially deferred payments as those guys will likely retire. It's a way to defray the average annual value for luxury tax purposes.

    So don't think of it as paying $28 million for the age X seasons. Think about it as paying (for example) $40 million for Correa's age 28-34 seasons, $30 million for his age 35 seasons, and $20 million for his age 36 and 37 seasons. Just spreading it out over 13 years instead of specifically in that breakdown.

    And consider the present value of money. That $20 million being spent in 9-10 years is worth a lot less in present value.
    They're not going to retire though, because they would be leaving that money on the table. Is Correa really going to hang it up at 37 and forfeit $81 million? In 2033 $27 mil won't be top of the scale money, but it won't be chump change either. So now you're stuck in Albert Pujos land where you have an aging star whose salary far outweighs his production and you have to:
    a) keep paying him to not produce and potentially block prospects
    b) keep him on the bench, occupying a very expensive roster spot
    c) release him and eat the money

    I know guys take care of their bodies better but I still don't see these big, long contracts working out from the team perspective.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    They're not going to retire though, because they would be leaving that money on the table. Is Correa really going to hang it up at 37 and forfeit $81 million? In 2033 $27 mil won't be top of the scale money, but it won't be chump change either. So now you're stuck in Albert Pujos land where you have an aging star whose salary far outweighs his production and you have to:
    a) keep paying him to not produce and potentially block prospects
    b) keep him on the bench, occupying a very expensive roster spot
    c) release him and eat the money

    I know guys take care of their bodies better but I still don't see these big, long contracts working out from the team perspective.
    I also believe the drop off happens well before they age. What is peak age in baseball? If Iím not mistaken itís early 30s

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Dansby asked for 6/140 during the season and the Braves said no. Really getting hard to imagine a scenario where the Braves re-sign him.
    I agree. Braves prob should have taken that and run. That number is probably going to start with a 2 now.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    I also believe the drop off happens well before they age. What is peak age in baseball? If Iím not mistaken itís early 30s
    Peak in baseball is the age 27 season, statistically speaking. For most players, "prime career" ends around age 32-33, and although that number may be rising slightly since the studies I saw, it certainly doesn't go all the way to 35, even now. Exceptional players can still be productive into their 40s, obviously, but that's really rare, and it is almost impossible to tell who is who among players who are just achieving peak. A 13-year contract is like a sucker bet in poker: It can pay off, but the expected value is negative.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    Peak in baseball is the age 27 season, statistically speaking. For most players, "prime career" ends around age 32-33, and although that number may be rising slightly since the studies I saw, it certainly doesn't go all the way to 35, even now. Exceptional players can still be productive into their 40s, obviously, but that's really rare, and it is almost impossible to tell who is who among players who are just achieving peak. A 13-year contract is like a sucker bet in poker: It can pay off, but the expected value is negative.
    With a 13 year contract, Iíd be surprised if Correa was worth it for even half of his time in San Fran.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    They're not going to retire though, because they would be leaving that money on the table. Is Correa really going to hang it up at 37 and forfeit $81 million?
    I agree he wonít retire but I do think thereís something to the view that teams see that as a deferred payment. The idea is that they are underpaying Correa in the first few years of the deal and overpaying on the back end, but that the contract as a whole is fair.

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    I agree he wonít retire but I do think thereís something to the view that teams see that as a deferred payment. The idea is that they are underpaying Correa in the first few years of the deal and overpaying on the back end, but that the contract as a whole is fair.
    I can agree that's their logic, but I don't agree it makes sense. It's not just the money (like a true deferred payment) but the roster spot and playing time issues it creates. I just looked it up and the average tenure of a GM is 5.5 years, so maybe the thinking is this could win us a title and I won't be around to deal with the fallout.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    They're not going to retire though, because they would be leaving that money on the table. Is Correa really going to hang it up at 37 and forfeit $81 million? In 2033 $27 mil won't be top of the scale money, but it won't be chump change either. So now you're stuck in Albert Pujos land where you have an aging star whose salary far outweighs his production and you have to:
    a) keep paying him to not produce and potentially block prospects
    b) keep him on the bench, occupying a very expensive roster spot
    c) release him and eat the money

    I know guys take care of their bodies better but I still don't see these big, long contracts working out from the team perspective.
    They will effectively retire by getting released at the end. Which makes it a deferred payment but with the tax implications smoothed out/lessened over more years.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City

    Rodon to the Yankees

    Being reported as a 6 year, $162 million deal.

    I love this signing for the Yankees and think it really helps them close the gap with the Astros and keeps them as the favorite in the AL East.

    Rodon is entering his age 30 season and I could see him being an All-Star caliber pitcher for most of the contract. He has been 5+ WAR for the past two seasons in both leagues and has a high strikeout rate and K/BB ratio. Because of his age and cost he was my first FA choice besides Judge this season. Cole, Rodon, Severino, Cortes, Montas is potentially the top rotation in the league. Very exciting for Yankees fans. Let's now get LeMahieu healthy and maybe (if we're greedy) sign Benintendi too.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    Being reported as a 6 year, $162 million deal.

    I love this signing for the Yankees and think it really helps them close the gap with the Astros and keeps them as the favorite in the AL East.

    Rodon is entering his age 30 season and I could see him being an All-Star caliber pitcher for most of the contract. He has been 5+ WAR for the past two seasons in both leagues and has a high strikeout rate and K/BB ratio. Because of his age and cost he was my first FA choice besides Judge this season. Cole, Rodon, Severino, Cortes, Montas is potentially the top rotation in the league. Very exciting for Yankees fans. Let's now get LeMahieu healthy and maybe (if we're greedy) sign Benintendi too.
    No Benintendi - agree with the Yanks that he wasnít worth 5 years. Iíd be fine with Oswaldo as the third OF at this point if we could find a way to move Donaldson, which is admittedly a tall order.

  14. #74
    Nobody has mentioned Dansby yet so I guess I have to. 7 years $177,000,000

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Nobody has mentioned Dansby yet so I guess I have to. 7 years $177,000,000
    The doggone Cubs. Now that stinks for my Cardinals. We keep Paul "no hit" DeJong and they get a terrific SS.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    The doggone Cubs. Now that stinks for my Cardinals. We keep Paul "no hit" DeJong and they get a terrific SS.
    I know it's not really a choice between the two, but between "stealing" Wilson Contreras and signing a slightly above average but incredibly streaky SS I think the Cards got the better of the offseason here.

  17. #77
    Benintendi to the White Sox, five years, $75 million.

    The best remaining corner outfielder is Conforto, who is a huge risk after missing the entire 2022 season due to injury.

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    I know it's not really a choice between the two, but between "stealing" Wilson Contreras and signing a slightly above average but incredibly streaky SS I think the Cards got the better of the offseason here.
    I hope you are correct. I just hate to see the front office run DeJong out to shortstop trying to justify that contract they gave him a few years back. A contract based on one good year. I like the guy, but he should have run out of chances last season. I'm pretty sure it will be Tommy Edman as short anyway and I love his game. Now if Gorman and Carlson can reach their ceiling and Jordan Walker wins the rightfield job out of ST, the Cardinals will be ok.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    With a 13 year contract, Iíd be surprised if Correa was worth it for even half of his time in San Fran.
    Apparently the Giants had buyers remorse based on something in Correaís physical, and heís now going to the Mets. Supposedly heíll split time between 3B (where heís never played) and DH.

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Apparently the Giants had buyers remorse based on something in Correaís physical, and heís now going to the Mets. Supposedly heíll split time between 3B (where heís never played) and DH.
    I was surprised by this. Mets have really pumped a bunch of money into the team. I think their spending is more likely to come back to bite them instead of helping them win a World Series.

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