You can think about those deals as more of a 10 year, $350 million dollar contract for Correa and a 9 year, $300 million for Turner. The last years 2-3 years of those deals are essentially deferred payments as those guys will likely retire. It's a way to defray the average annual value for luxury tax purposes.
So don't think of it as paying $28 million for the age X seasons. Think about it as paying (for example) $40 million for Correa's age 28-34 seasons, $30 million for his age 35 seasons, and $20 million for his age 36 and 37 seasons. Just spreading it out over 13 years instead of specifically in that breakdown.
And consider the present value of money. That $20 million being spent in 9-10 years is worth a lot less in present value.
They're not going to retire though, because they would be leaving that money on the table. Is Correa really going to hang it up at 37 and forfeit $81 million? In 2033 $27 mil won't be top of the scale money, but it won't be chump change either. So now you're stuck in Albert Pujos land where you have an aging star whose salary far outweighs his production and you have to:
a) keep paying him to not produce and potentially block prospects
b) keep him on the bench, occupying a very expensive roster spot
c) release him and eat the money
I know guys take care of their bodies better but I still don't see these big, long contracts working out from the team perspective.
Peak in baseball is the age 27 season, statistically speaking. For most players, "prime career" ends around age 32-33, and although that number may be rising slightly since the studies I saw, it certainly doesn't go all the way to 35, even now. Exceptional players can still be productive into their 40s, obviously, but that's really rare, and it is almost impossible to tell who is who among players who are just achieving peak. A 13-year contract is like a sucker bet in poker: It can pay off, but the expected value is negative.
I can agree that's their logic, but I don't agree it makes sense. It's not just the money (like a true deferred payment) but the roster spot and playing time issues it creates. I just looked it up and the average tenure of a GM is 5.5 years, so maybe the thinking is this could win us a title and I won't be around to deal with the fallout.
Being reported as a 6 year, $162 million deal.
I love this signing for the Yankees and think it really helps them close the gap with the Astros and keeps them as the favorite in the AL East.
Rodon is entering his age 30 season and I could see him being an All-Star caliber pitcher for most of the contract. He has been 5+ WAR for the past two seasons in both leagues and has a high strikeout rate and K/BB ratio. Because of his age and cost he was my first FA choice besides Judge this season. Cole, Rodon, Severino, Cortes, Montas is potentially the top rotation in the league. Very exciting for Yankees fans. Let's now get LeMahieu healthy and maybe (if we're greedy) sign Benintendi too.
Singler is IRON
I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013
Nobody has mentioned Dansby yet so I guess I have to. 7 years $177,000,000
Benintendi to the White Sox, five years, $75 million.
The best remaining corner outfielder is Conforto, who is a huge risk after missing the entire 2022 season due to injury.
I hope you are correct. I just hate to see the front office run DeJong out to shortstop trying to justify that contract they gave him a few years back. A contract based on one good year. I like the guy, but he should have run out of chances last season. I'm pretty sure it will be Tommy Edman as short anyway and I love his game. Now if Gorman and Carlson can reach their ceiling and Jordan Walker wins the rightfield job out of ST, the Cardinals will be ok.