We’re Going!! Duke Bowl Selection Discussion

[OldPhiKap]

I am sure you can find this information in a more "professional" site

Twitter? (Excellwnt work on this MD83, thanks!)

I am guessing that Nina King will schmooze us into an attractive bowl...it isn't all done strictly by W-L records...she's been completely on top of football ever since she took over from White. So hopefully one of those mid tier bowls, though the payouts don't particularly matter since revenue is shared within the ACC.

Yup. Nina was a rock star hire.

[Reilly]

...

I believe the middle 3 will be filled by Pitt/State/Duke.

That leaves, Louisville, Wake, and Syracuse for the bottom group and the Fenway bowl not getting an ACC team.

If for some reason Duke gets ranked down lower, I bet we would go to the Military bowl and not Birmingham or Tampa.

With respect to Fenway possibly not getting an ACC team, does it mean anything that, in the ACC FB Media Guide (at least as of last summer's printing), both Birmingham and Gasparilla are listed as TBD insofar as participants whereas Fenway is clearly marked as ACC v. AAC. I've been reading that as meaning Fenway gets an ACC team before Birmingham or Gasparilla. But I could be reading too much into that.

[Reilly]

ACC bowl spots fall into this order more or less:

Bowl/Date/Payout
Capital One Orange Bowl Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 CFP Pool split
Cheez-It Bowl Thurs. Dec. 29, 2022 $6,071,760
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 $5,350,000
San Diego County Holiday Bowl Wed., Dec. 28, 2022 $6,532,700

Duke’s Mayo Bowl Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 $4,780,461
Pinstripe Bowl Thurs., Dec. 29, 2022 $4,400,000
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 $4,550,000

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton Wed., Dec. 28, 2022 $2,066,990
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl Tues., Dec. 27, 2022 $1,374,545
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Fri., Dec. 23, 2022 $1,125,000
Wasabi Fenway Bowl Sat., Dec. 17, 2022 $???


So after today’s results, I believe the top 4 group will be Clemson/FSU/ND/UNC. FSU will go to one of the Florida bowls, ND probably to the other, and UNC to SD.

I believe the middle 3 will be filled by Pitt/State/Duke.

That leaves, Louisville, Wake, and Syracuse for the bottom group and the Fenway bowl not getting an ACC team.

If for some reason Duke gets ranked down lower, I bet we would go to the Military bowl and not Birmingham or Tampa.

Ordering by overall wins first, ACC wins 2nd, and then SRS placement, we have a claim, as of now, to the ACC's 6th -best bowl.

10-win teams

Clem (8 ACC W) (N-UNC), #14 SRS

9-win teams

UNC (6 ACC W) (N-Clem), #41 SRS
FSU (5 ACC W), #10 SRS

8-win teams

ND, #19 SRS
Pitt (5 ACC W), #36 SRS
Duke (5 ACC W), #43 SRS
NCSU (4 ACC W), #35 SRS

7-win teams

Lville (4 ACC W), #25 SRS
Syr (4 ACC W), #40 SRS
WFU (3 ACC W), #28 SRS

Of the middle tier of bowls -- Charlotte, NYC, El Paso -- we've been to all three somewhat recently. I guess L'ville, Syr, and WFU could all claim that the computer believes them stronger than Duke; Duke's rejoinder is more wins overall + more ACC wins. And with WFU our head-to-head win.

[Reilly]

El Paso since 2010

December 31, 2010 Notre Dame 33 Miami (Florida) 17 54,021 notes
December 31, 2011 Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 (OT) 48,123 notes
December 31, 2012 Georgia Tech 21 USC 7 47,922 notes
December 31, 2013 No. 17 UCLA 42 Virginia Tech 12 47,912 notes
December 27, 2014 No. 15 Arizona State 36 Duke 31 47,809 notes
December 26, 2015 Washington State 20 Miami (Florida) 14 41,180 notes
December 30, 2016 No. 16 Stanford 25 North Carolina 23 42,166 notes
December 29, 2017 NC State 52 Arizona State 31 39,897 notes
December 31, 2018 Stanford 14 Pittsburgh 13 40,680 notes
December 31, 2019 Arizona State 20 Florida State 14 42,212 notes
2020 Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic — [25]
December 31, 2021 Central Michigan 24 Washington State 21 34,540 notes

NCSU and Pitt has each been to El Paso more recently than Duke; darn.

[75Crazie]

Notre Dame is an ACC football school? That's weird, I cannot seem to find them in the online league standings.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I am guessing that Nina King will schmooze us into an attractive bowl...it isn't all done strictly by W-L records...

I am not sure.........

Still could see Nina bumping us up a notch.

...this is how this works...

[Reilly]

NYC since 2010

December 30, 2010 Syracuse 36 Kansas State 34 38,274 notes
December 30, 2011 Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13 38,328 notes
December 29, 2012 Syracuse 38 West Virginia 14 39,098 notes
December 28, 2013 No. 25 Notre Dame 29 Rutgers 16 47,122 notes
December 27, 2014 Penn State 31 Boston College 30 (OT) 49,012 notes
December 26, 2015 Duke 44 Indiana 41 (OT) 37,218 notes
December 28, 2016 Northwestern 31 No. 22 Pittsburgh 24 37,918 notes
December 27, 2017 Iowa 27 Boston College 20 37,667 notes
December 27, 2018 Wisconsin 35 Miami (FL) 3 37,821 notes
December 27, 2019 Michigan State 27 Wake Forest 21 36,895 notes
December 29, 2020 Game canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [18]
December 29, 2021 Maryland 54 Virginia Tech

Send NCSU to NYC -- never been.

[Reilly]

NYC and Charlotte offer Big10 opponents; El Paso Pac 12.

[wilson]

I am not sure.....



...this is how this works...

Schmoozing is (in part) very much how this works, now more than ever with so many indistinguishable bowls and teams to fill them. Fan bases' ability to provide the much-ballyhooed infusions to the local economy are a key part of these pecking order conversations when on-field distinctions are muddy.

[Reilly]

Charlotte bowl

December 28, 2002 Continental Tire Bowl Virginia 48 No. 15 West Virginia 22 73,535
December 27, 2003 Continental Tire Bowl Virginia 23 Pittsburgh 16 51,236
December 30, 2004 Continental Tire Bowl No. 25 Boston College 37 North Carolina 24 73,258
December 31, 2005 Meineke Car Care Bowl NC State 14 USF 0 57,937
December 30, 2006 Meineke Car Care Bowl No. 23 Boston College 25 Navy 24 52,303
December 29, 2007 Meineke Car Care Bowl Wake Forest 24 Connecticut 10 53,126
December 27, 2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl West Virginia 31 North Carolina 30 73,712
December 26, 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl No. 17 Pittsburgh 19 North Carolina 17 50,389
December 31, 2010 Meineke Car Care Bowl USF 31 Clemson 26 41,122
December 27, 2011 Belk Bowl NC State 31 Louisville 24 58,427
December 27, 2012 Belk Bowl Cincinnati 48 Duke 34 48,128
December 28, 2013 Belk Bowl North Carolina 39 Cincinnati 17 45,211
December 30, 2014 Belk Bowl No. 13 Georgia 37 No. 20 Louisville 14 45,671
December 30, 2015 Belk Bowl Mississippi State 51 NC State 28 46,423
December 29, 2016 Belk Bowl No. 18 Virginia Tech 35 Arkansas 24 46,902
December 29, 2017 Belk Bowl Wake Forest 55 Texas A&M 52 32,784
December 29, 2018 Belk Bowl Virginia 28 South Carolina 0 48,263
December 31, 2019 Belk Bowl Kentucky 37 Virginia Tech 30 44,138
December 30, 2020 Duke's Mayo Bowl Wisconsin 42 Wake Forest 28 1,500
December 30, 2021 Duke's Mayo Bowl South Carolina 38 North Carolina 21 45,520

WFU and State and Lville have all been in Charlotte more recently than Duke. Seems that would favor Duke going there. And Lville been 2x in last 11 years. I'd be ecstatic with Duke in Charlotte against a Big10 opponent -- later in the bowl season, pretty easy travel destination.

[Reilly]

One less source. Really enjoyed Giglio's yellow pad in years' past. His tweet from this morning:

Joe Giglio
@giglio_OG
·
2h
OK. Bad news.
Between changes at the ACC, the schools and different bowl games, I’ve lost 99.9 percent of my best bowl sources.
So I have to retire the Yellow Pad Projections. They would just be Yellow Pad Guesses.
@Brett_McMurphy has the best bowl sources. Follow him

[duke2x]

Of the middle tier of bowls -- Charlotte, NYC, El Paso -- we've been to all three somewhat recently. I guess L'ville, Syr, and WFU could all claim that the computer believes them stronger than Duke; Duke's rejoinder is more wins overall + more ACC wins. And with WFU our head-to-head win.

Good analysis, but quoting it all would make my post too long. I think you have to include mutual opponents among ACC bowl teams in the analysis more than non-conference schedules.

ND 3-0
Clemson 5-1
UNC 3-2
Louisville 3-3
NCSU 3-3
Pitt 2-2
FSU 2-3
Duke 1-2
Syracuse 2-5
Wake 2-5

While that isn't everything, it doesn't lock us into a P5 opponent. I'll stick with my Wake v. Cincy prediction in Boston because of the date and exams. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess.

[budwom]

Schmoozing is (in part) very much how this works, now more than ever with so many indistinguishable bowls and teams to fill them. Fan bases' ability to provide the much-ballyhooed infusions to the local economy are a key part of these pecking order conversations when on-field distinctions are muddy.

Yeah, these bowls (we must remember) are run by people who benefit greatly by running them. I do not believe their prime interest is determining some precise formula which gets them the most meritorious team; rather they want to know what each visiting school can do for them (vis a vis ticket sales, boost to local economy as you note)...obviously we don't have a huge fan base, but we have a happy fane base, not a disappointed one (hello State and unc) and that could benefit us.

[Reilly]

...

ND 3-0
Clemson 5-1
UNC 3-2
Louisville 3-3
NCSU 3-3
Pitt 2-2
FSU 2-3
Duke 1-2
Syracuse 2-5
Wake 2-5

While that isn't everything, it doesn't lock us into a P5 opponent. I'll stick with my Wake v. Cincy prediction in Boston because of the date and exams. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess.

Agree a factor. And agree that we are not locked into a P5 opponent. Also believe that factor (record v. ACC bowl teams) comes out in the wash a bit and is captured by the SRS rank (which is why we have the lowest SRS rank of all ACC bowling teams). I think Big Wayne is absolutely correct on top 4 -- Clemson, ND, UNC, FSU -- given overall accomplishment (winning divisions; high SRS) and rep (national brands). So that leaves us the muddled 6 -- L'ville, NCSU, Pitt, Duke, Syr, WFU (all between 25 and 43 in SRS) -- battling out for 3 good ones and 3 lesser ones. When I saw Big Wayne saying we might get the better tier, at first I thought no way, but then the more I looked at it, could see it.

[stickdog]

Check out these bowl projections: https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...s/predictions/

Duke vs. Oregon in San Diego

[budwom]

Check out these bowl projections: https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...s/predictions/

Duke vs. Oregon in San Diego

long time no see, Stick, how's it going?

[Reilly]

... obviously we don't have a huge fan base, but we have a happy fan[] base, not a disappointed one (hello State and unc) and that could benefit us.

So when we few, we happy few, we band of Duke brothers roll into some mediocre bowl town, we may not spend money like drunken sailors (Duke alums, of course) but perhaps like irrationally exuberant investors?

[budwom]

So when we few, we happy few, we band of Duke brothers roll into some mediocre bowl town, we may not spend money like drunken sailors (Duke alums, of course) but perhaps like irrationally exuberant investors?

yes, we buy startups, Lamborghinis, eat lots of sushi, stuff like that...

[duke2x]

Agree a factor. And agree that we are not locked into a P5 opponent. Also believe that factor (record v. ACC bowl teams) comes out in the wash a bit and is captured by the SRS rank (which is why we have the lowest SRS rank of all ACC bowling teams). I think Big Wayne is absolutely correct on top 4 -- Clemson, ND, UNC, FSU -- given overall accomplishment (winning divisions; high SRS) and rep (national brands). So that leaves us the muddled 6 -- L'ville, NCSU, Pitt, Duke, Syr, WFU (all between 25 and 43 in SRS) -- battling out for 3 good ones and 3 lesser ones. When I saw Big Wayne saying we might get the better tier, at first I thought no way, but then the more I looked at it, could see it.

Syracuse's win against Purdue (division champs) and Duke's loss to Kansas probably puts them ahead of us on resume with networking being equal. I would then look at Birmingham and Dallas over Tampa based on the date. Tampa wouldn't require the Allen Building to issue 300-400 incomplete grades or rescheduled exams, but it's close. Dallas would be my first choice for recruiting purposes. There's more to do there, and it's easier to fly in/out of there.

[KBCrazie]

Agree a factor. And agree that we are not locked into a P5 opponent. Also believe that factor (record v. ACC bowl teams) comes out in the wash a bit and is captured by the SRS rank (which is why we have the lowest SRS rank of all ACC bowling teams). I think Big Wayne is absolutely correct on top 4 -- Clemson, ND, UNC, FSU -- given overall accomplishment (winning divisions; high SRS) and rep (national brands). So that leaves us the muddled 6 -- L'ville, NCSU, Pitt, Duke, Syr, WFU (all between 25 and 43 in SRS) -- battling out for 3 good ones and 3 lesser ones. When I saw Big Wayne saying we might get the better tier, at first I thought no way, but then the more I looked at it, could see it.

I feel like with the made/missed calls at the end of the UNC game and the fact that converting only one of the late 2-point attempts would have resulted in a regulation tie vs Pitt you gan definitely argue that we belong in the better tier.