We’re Going!! Duke Bowl Selection Discussion

[DU82]

So best case scenario (in terms of Duke outpacing others in total wins) is we win out and get to 9 ... FSU beats LA (24 point fave, trying to be realistic) and loses rivalry game to UF and lands at 8 ... ND beats BC and loses to USC to land at 8 ... NCSU loses two road games and stays at 7 ... Lville beats State to get to 7 and then loses to UK to stay at 7 ... Wake beats Syr to get to 7 and loses to Duke and stays at 7 ... Syr loses to Wake to stay at 6 and who cares v. BC to end at 6/7 ... Pitt loses out (Duke, @Mia) to stay at 6 ...

There, that's 15 outcomes I'd like to see. I've been a fan a long time and I feel that I deserve all 15. If I only get 14/15 and NCSU beats UNC to get to 8, I can live with that.

Not that they list the criteria, but ranking in the last poll (the playoff one) had weight in considering order of selection. So if Clemson makes the playoffs (just go with me with this!), and the Cheaters are second and go to the Orange Bowl, with the scenarios you listed, I’d guess Duke would sneak in at the bottoms of the poll, and if everything else happens, would be the third of three ACC teams ranked (the others would likely drop out.). In the past, either the Gator Bowl or one Orlando bowls (used to br Citrus Bowl?) would next in line.

I don’t think they can pick a team lower, or at least they can’t pick a 7 win team over a 9 win team.

[Reilly]

Not that they list the criteria, but ranking in the last poll (the playoff one) had weight in considering order of selection ...

I've only followed semi-closely over the years. The only ironclad(ish) rule I recall being instituted (at one time) was that a team could not leapfrog another if there was a 2-win difference. In other words, the 6-win FSU could not leap over an 8-win Wake for a more marquee bowl. But I think even that rule(ish) was adopted later after such a thing had indeed happened. Not even sure if that is still a rule -- hope so, seems fair.

There are lots of ACC tie-in bowls and lots of ACC bowl eligible teams and everything goes into the mix ... where has the school been lately, what makes for an interesting TV game, what provides competitive balance, who "deserves" (however defined) whatever bowl the most ... in other words, your intro phrase ("not that they list the criteria") is the most apt thing ...there really are not strict criteria, as I understand ... judgment (and money) rules ... NYC or Annapolis or Charlotte or El Paso or FL ... who cares? ... we're going bowling ... actually, I care -- been to Charlotte and NYC and Annapolis ... would be nice to go to FL ...

[Reilly]

Here's the ACC media guide (p. 10) on the bowl selection criteria: "The ACC and its bowl partners will make team selections based on several factors, including geographic proximity, avoiding repeat appearances and matchups, and regular-season won-loss records."

https://docs.google.com/viewerng/vie...ate=1661175808

[Reilly]

Wasabi Fenway Bowl ACC vs. AAC Sat., Dec. 17, 2022 11 a.m., ESPN -- BOSTON -- #8
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl TBD Fri., Dec. 23, 2022 TBD, ESPN -- TAMPA -- #7

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TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl TBD Tues., Dec. 27, 2022 3:15 p.m. or 6:45 p.m., ESPN -- BIRMINGHAM -- #11
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton ACC vs. AAC Wed., Dec. 28, 2022 2 p.m, ESPN -- ANNAPOLIS -- #10
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl ACC vs. Pac-12 Wed., Dec. 28, 2022 8 p.m., FOX -- SAN DIEGO -- #4
Pinstripe Bowl ACC vs. Big Ten Thurs., Dec. 29, 2022 2 p.m., ESPN -- NEW YORK CITY -- #6
Cheez-It Bowl ACC vs. Big 12 Thurs. Dec. 29, 2022 5:30 p.m., ESPN -- ORLANDO -- #3

Duke’s Mayo Bowl ACC vs. Big Ten Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 Noon, ESPN -- CHARLOTTE -- #5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl ACC vs. Pac-12 Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 2 p.m., CBS -- EL PASO -- #9
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl ACC vs. SEC Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 3:30 p.m., ESPN -- JACKSONVILLE -- #2

ReliaQuest Bowl* ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC Mon., Jan. 2, 2023 Noon, ESPN2 -- TAMPA -- #1

[DU82]

Wasabi Fenway Bowl ACC vs. AAC Sat., Dec. 17, 2022 11 a.m., ESPN -- BOSTON -- #8
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl TBD Fri., Dec. 23, 2022 TBD, ESPN -- TAMPA -- #7

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TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl TBD Tues., Dec. 27, 2022 3:15 p.m. or 6:45 p.m., ESPN -- BIRMINGHAM -- #11
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton ACC vs. AAC Wed., Dec. 28, 2022 2 p.m, ESPN -- ANNAPOLIS -- #10
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl ACC vs. Pac-12 Wed., Dec. 28, 2022 8 p.m., FOX -- SAN DIEGO -- #4
Pinstripe Bowl ACC vs. Big Ten Thurs., Dec. 29, 2022 2 p.m., ESPN -- NEW YORK CITY -- #6
Cheez-It Bowl ACC vs. Big 12 Thurs. Dec. 29, 2022 5:30 p.m., ESPN -- ORLANDO -- #3

Duke’s Mayo Bowl ACC vs. Big Ten Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 Noon, ESPN -- CHARLOTTE -- #5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl ACC vs. Pac-12 Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 2 p.m., CBS -- EL PASO -- #9
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl ACC vs. SEC Fri., Dec. 30, 2022 3:30 p.m., ESPN -- JACKSONVILLE -- #2

ReliaQuest Bowl* ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC Mon., Jan. 2, 2023 Noon, ESPN2 -- TAMPA -- #1

Understanding that one ACC team WILL be inthe Orange Bowl.

There are nine ACC trams eligible for bowls. Notre Dame makes ten. Miami has to beat either Clemson or Pitt, so they might make 11. GT ‘has to beat Georgia (and the Cheaters, which we can all support) so they are very doubtful.
Miami beats Pitt.). It’s unlikely that Notre Dame will make the NY6, so they’re one of the ten, and would almost definitely be ahead of us in the pecking order.

I think you have the Gasparilla Bowl too high; given it’s history I think it’s last, and will be picking a non-ACC team like UConn. You also have the Sun Bowl way too low, it’s grouped with 3-6. I’d also move up the Military Bowl right behind 3-7. (I think the bottom two are the pre-Christmas two.)

If we win out, I think we’re 4th in the pecking order, (Clemson, Cheaters, ND). I could see FSU being more desirable, but there’s not enough others to pass us. I think we wind up in either the Gator or Citrus (ReliaQuest) bowl.

If we beat Pitt or (not and) Wake, we might slip to 7, but still in the 3-7 bowl group (in the past, the ACC more-or-less treated them the same.). If we lose both, I think we’re in the Military bowl or Birmingham.

(Re-reading, I see you said personal rankings. I was ranking them in the likely pecking order.)

[OldPhiKap]

Tulane on ESPN right now, up over SMU 14-0 early.

[peloton]

Tulane on ESPN right now, up over SMU 14-0 early.

Not sure I want a piece of these NOLA guys. Score update - SMU being swamped by The Green Wave 35-7.

[Reilly]

Ordering by overall wins first and then SRS placement, we have a claim, as of now, to the ACC's 9th-best bowl.

10-win teams

#11Clem (SoCar, N-UNC)

9-win teams

#34UNC (NCSU, N-Clem)

8-win teams

#9 FSU (UF)
#16ND (@USC)

7-win teams

#17Lville (@UK)
#20 WFU (@Duke)
#37NCSU (@UNC)
#43Pitt (@Mia)
#44DUKE (WFU)

6-win teams

#33Syr (@BC)

5-win teams

#79Mia (Pitt)
#85GT (@UGA)

# = SRS ranking: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...2-ratings.html

[burnspbesq]

FWIW, the ESPN prognosticators are saying Charlotte or El Paso.

[Reilly]

CFN sticking with its El Paso prediction: https://www.yahoo.com/sports/bowl-pr...215552521.html

[Reilly]

FWIW, the ESPN prognosticators are saying Charlotte or El Paso.

My general preferences are, in no particular order, (1) later in the bowl season rather than earlier; (2) warmer locale over colder; and (3) P5 opponent over G5.

[Reilly]

McMurphy/Action predicting Duke/ECU in Fenway 12/17 w/ Duke a 2.5 point favorite: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/...=BrettMcMurphy

[duke79]

McMurphy/Action predicting Duke/ECU in Fenway 12/17 w/ Duke a 2.5 point favorite: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/...=BrettMcMurphy

As a long-time resident of Massachusetts, it would be cool to see Duke football play at Fenway BUT I can't imagine there will be much local interest in a Duke/ECU matchup. Boston has never really been a "college" sports town and even less so for two teams from North Carolina.

[duke2x]

FWIW, the ESPN prognosticators are saying Charlotte or El Paso.

There's a lot of football to play, particularly with most of the ACC's bowl teams at 7-4. With no at-large or contingent bids likely for the ACC/ND, I have a feeling that the Duke-Wake loser will end up in the Tampa/Birmingham/Dallas spot.

[duke2x]

As a long-time resident of Massachusetts, it would be cool to see Duke football play at Fenway BUT I can't imagine there will be much local interest in a Duke/ECU matchup. Boston has never really been a "college" sports town and even less so for two teams from North Carolina.

I don't gamble in money or pastry, but there's no way the Mayo Bowl is passing UNC, NCSU, Wake, and Duke for Pitt in his prediction. There were maybe 15,000 fans at Saturday's Duke-Pitt game. He also has Fenway passing on Syracuse in favor of Duke.

[Acymetric]

As a long-time resident of Massachusetts, it would be cool to see Duke football play at Fenway BUT I can't imagine there will be much local interest in a Duke/ECU matchup. Boston has never really been a "college" sports town and even less so for two teams from North Carolina.

I think there is a large enough Duke base in and around Boston (and Boston is an attractive enough place to travel for out of towners) that we would turn out fine there.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I think there is a large enough Duke base in and around Boston (and Boston is an attractive enough place to travel for out of towners) that we would turn out fine there.

The Fenway game is also on December 17 and bowls are announced December 4 so there is not a lot of time to pivot and make travel plans, especially as people tend to be very busy around then. We obviously do it for basketball on shorter notice but it is somewhat different.

I am within driving distance so I am trying to keep that weekend free (need to put a hold on a hotel) as I can't go to any of the other possible games due to holiday travel plans. But to your point, I think there are enough people within driving distance that there would be a decent turnout, just not a great one. Selfishly, I am hoping that this is where we end up, though for the good of Duke football, there are a number of better options.

[Acymetric]

On the flip side, December 17 is less likely to conflict with existing holiday plans than the games between Christmas and New Years, I don't imagine there are huge swaths of Duke fans who kept New Years weekend open in case we made a bowl. I'm not sure I see much reason to expect a better Duke turnout at any of the other bowls than at Fenway. Maybe the Florida bowls just as kind of a warm weather destination.

[BigWayne]

Even with a win over Wake, we are pretty far down the list and it's pretty hard to predict where will land, even after we know everyone's results from this coming weekend.

With Tennessee losing to SC, the top ten teams are very much in turmoil. The biggest game by far this week for ACC bowl definition is ND at USC. If ND pulls off the upset, it could potentially add two bowl slots to the ACC mix. ND could move up into the top 12 and Clemson could sneak in to the CFP, especially if TCU stumbles.

[budwom]

Yes, we'll get what we get and we'll be happy about it because just about no one saw us going to a bowl back in August. Maybe Nina can wine and dine us up a notch...