We’re Going!! Duke Bowl Selection Discussion

[OldPhiKap]

I’ve made hotel/rental car reservations for El Paso, since I think that’s the tightest market. (Marriott kept listing hotel across the border, though!)

Anybody know a good tattoo parlor in the area? :-)

{shiver}

[Acymetric]

I wonder how many coaches go bowling in their first year as a head coach?

[AGDukesky]

I wonder how many coaches go bowling in their first year as a head coach?

Yeah and especially after the team had only three wins the previous year (or simply didn’t go the year prior)

[duke2x]

This is the last appearance by the relevant ACC teams. I have a nice chart if someone can tell me how to translate Excel into DBR board code. Second tier, Boston, and San Diego are not relevant due to their contingent status or lack of history.

You likely have 10 bowl slots for the ACC. I don't see NY6 for the ACC unless ND runs the table. Both revenue and recent appearance play a role in bowl selection. I'm analyzing both with our current record at 6-3 with everybody else but Pitt, Clemson, and UNC.

Orange - This will be the winner of Clemson-UNC after tonight.
Tampa - If they are required to take an ACC team, the order should be 7-5 ND >> Clemson - UNC loser > FSU.
Orlando - Clemson, FSU, and ND have to be the favorites here. FSU hasn't been there in a long time. UNC might end up there if contractually required.
Charlotte - I don't think we can get here, but I think Duke might be 5th behind Clemson, UNC, FSU, and NCSU in that order.
Jacksonville - Ignoring the possibility of a grudge, I don't see Duke here. This goes to Louisville and Pitt over us if it's close. FSU has not been here in a long time.
Bronx - The Syracuse drought surprised me and might be too much for us to overcome. We would be more popular here than other teams from the South.
El Paso and San Diego - The glaring omission is that Wake, Louisville, and Syracuse have not taken their turn out West. NCSU had its trip cancelled last year. Duke is due for this trip as well.
Annapolis - Nobody has been here recently. This might be our best shot for a "local" bowl.
Boston - see Annapolis notes. This will be the last spot filled over the contingent spots.

I'll analyze the contingent spots (Birmingham, TCU, Tampa 2) if it's clearer we're headed there.

[-jk]

For data presentation per the FAQ sticky:

Stats Put stats and other tables between the tags "[code]" and "[/code]" (see VB Tags, next) and it'll make your post much more readable. The easiest way I've found to set up tables is to use Excel and Notepad, Excel to set up the data and Notepad to strip everything except the text and tabs.

1) Set up your data in Excel
2) Copy and paste into Windows' Notepad (with the default Lucida Console font)
3) Tweak the tabs as needed to get it back into columns in Notepad (long records sometimes move them out of place)
4) Copy and paste between [code] and [/code] tags
5) Preview!

A slightly easier way is to just use the Courier font in the WYSIWYG editor (User CP > edit options), but note that the BBS system strips multiple spaces down to a single space which can really squeeze your table. The Code tag doesn't strip spaces.

Tables There is a table feature now. You have to use "Enhanced Interface - Full WYSIWYG Editing" (you can change it via Settings > General Settings). You'll see a row of buttons that are for creating and editing tables.

-jk

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Hoping for a bowl game between Christmas and New Year’s. It’s within reach if we can get to 7 or maybe 8 wins.

At this point, seems to me that 7 would be the most likely outcome, or maybe 7/8 equally likely. Three games left, favored in one, slight underdogs in two more perhaps.
Conversely, I see 9 and 6 as the good news / bad news long shots...but certainly no reason to think that Wake is out of reach - and Pitt is, well, quirky unpredictable. Pitt seems to struggle as the favorite - something Duke did at times under Cut.

It will be interesting to see how Elko's team responds in the recently rare occurrence of being favored two ACC games in a row with Virginia Tech.

Speaking of 9F, Duke would be 7-2 if refs could do their jobs right.

Sadly, they did. Ahem.

[MarkD83]

With 3 weeks left in the regular season and the CFP rankings / conferences getting sorted out (Clemson likely out of the CFP; LSU likely to win the SEC west and UGA likely to win the SEC east...) this is probably the last week we need to see who is in and out of the bowls.

There are 52 teams with 6 wins or more.
There are another 24 teams with 5 wins and I assume they will each win 1 more game.
That leaves 6 open bowl slots.
(14 teams have 7 or more losses)

With the possibility of 2 SEC and 2 B10 teams in the CFP and various bowl tie-ins there are some interesting teams that could sneak into the bowls.
First let's look at the ACC

I'm going to assume Pitt gets to 6 wins, that leaves an opening in the Fenway Bowl for either Miami or GT if they can win 2 of their last 3.
Miami's schedule is GT, Clemson and Pitt while GT's schedule is Miami, unc and UGA. So the GT / Miami game is critical.

Is it possible that a 5-7 GT or Miami team get into a bowl?

In the SEC if 2 teams get into the CFP then there are a possible 13 slots for SEC teams. There are 10 SEC teams with 5 or more wins and Missouri with 4 wins. (Keep in mind I have looked at different bowl tie-in lists and they don't all agree in the number of tie-ins.)

Is it possible that Auburn, TX A&M or Vanderbilt could get into a bowl?

In the B10 if 2 teams get into the CFP then there are a possible 11 slots for B10 teams. There are 9 B10 teams with 5 or more wins. MSU and Rutgers have 4 wins and their upcoming schedules are: MSU plays Rutgers, Indiana and Penn State while Rutgers plays MSU, Penn State and Md. So the MSU / Rutgers game is critical.

Is it possible that a 5 win B10 school gets into a bowl?

This all leads to my last "paranoid pessimistic" comment. We could get kicked out if Duke ends at 6-6, GT, Miami and Pitt get to 6 wins each and someone decides that Auburn, TX A&M, Rutgers and MSU are better than Duke.

Having said that my "paranoid pessimism" has been suppressed and Duke will play in the Military Bowl in Annapolis.

[DU82]

A five win team cannot bumps six win (bowl eligible) team. So I’m not worried about Rutgers and others if they only get five wins.

Duke is an attractive bowl participant and we’re not getting kicked out.

[duke2x]

A five win team cannot bumps six win (bowl eligible) team. So I’m not worried about Rutgers and others if they only get five wins. Duke is an attractive bowl participant and we’re not getting kicked out.

We aren't attractive enough for the ACCN unfortunately. Only the Temple and UNC games have been picked up so far, the former being on a Friday. I'm not sure if that changes for the rest of the season with Wake losing 2 in a row. I was hoping espn2 would pick that up against OSU-MI.

I'm not sure about the TCU Bowl contract, but I think that's written differently than the Tampa and Birmingham spots as far as team #10.

[budwom]

We aren't attractive enough for the ACCN unfortunately. Only the Temple and UNC games have been picked up so far, the former being on a Friday. I'm not sure if that changes for the rest of the season with Wake losing 2 in a row. I was hoping espn2 would pick that up against OSU-MI.

I'm not sure about the TCU Bowl contract, but I think that's written differently than the Tampa and Birmingham spots as far as team #10.

I don't think decisions during the season about what the ACCN chooses to show is particularly relevant to our bowl attractiveness...another win should get us into a pretty decent bowl...

[Bob Green]

...another win should get us into a pretty decent bowl...

I agree. Win another game to finish 7-5 and we move from Second Tier to First Tier, winning two more games (8-4) removes the “pretty decent” qualifier.

First things first, time to beat Virginia Tech.

[DU82]

We aren't attractive enough for the ACCN unfortunately. Only the Temple and UNC games have been picked up so far, the former being on a Friday. I'm not sure if that changes for the rest of the season with Wake losing 2 in a row. I was hoping espn2 would pick that up against OSU-MI.

I'm not sure about the TCU Bowl contract, but I think that's written differently than the Tampa and Birmingham spots as far as team #10.

Again, by rule a five win team cannot bump a 6+ (bowl eligible) team. Not sure if the ACC will get more than nine teams in; regardless we’re not sitting at home for Christmas (other than the Fenway Bowl.)

[MarkD83]

A five win team cannot bumps six win (bowl eligible) team. So I’m not worried about Rutgers and others if they only get five wins.

Duke is an attractive bowl participant and we’re not getting kicked out.

Thanks for the clarification. I was doing the math to see how many folks could get to 6 wins and possibly knock Duke out. After looking at the possibilities there may be some 5 win teams that are needed to fill out the bowls so Duke is safe.

Of course a 7, 8 or 9 win Duke team would end all doubt.

If we go into the last 3 weeks of the season and worry about 6 win teams supplanting Duke than GT, Miami, Pitt, Tx A&M, Rutgers and Auburn would be the teams I would love to see get to 7 losses.

[DU82]

Thanks for the clarification. I was doing the math to see how many folks could get to 6 wins and possibly knock Duke out. After looking at the possibilities there may be some 5 win teams that are needed to fill out the bowls so Duke is safe.

Of course a 7, 8 or 9 win Duke team would end all doubt.

If we go into the last 3 weeks of the season and worry about 6 win teams supplanting Duke than GT, Miami, Pitt, Tx A&M, Rutgers and Auburn would be the teams I would love to see get to 7 losses.

A Power 5 conference team is NOT getting bumped out of a bowl by a G5 (or less) team. Here's a quote I found regarding bowls:

There are currently 35 licensed college bowls, which just about maxes out the possible eligible teams (the four-year average of bowl-eligible squads is 71.8).

So, first, only 1.8 6+ win teams, on average, get bumped. Even if every P5 team had 6+ wins, that's a total of 65 teams.

The Duke brand (not of mayo, of course) carries a lot of prestige for a bowl, regardless of our recent football history. That, plus we guarantee ticket sales, gets us a good spot. But, let's get 8 or 9 wins, and move up the list. (Well, 7 first, but you understand!)

ETA: Old Link, there are 43 bowl games now. Even better odds. (Some do include FCS teams.)

[MarkD83]

A Power 5 conference team is NOT getting bumped out of a bowl by a G5 (or less) team. Here's a quote I found regarding bowls:

There are currently 35 licensed college bowls, which just about maxes out the possible eligible teams (the four-year average of bowl-eligible squads is 71.8).

So, first, only 1.8 6+ win teams, on average, get bumped. Even if every P5 team had 6+ wins, that's a total of 65 teams.

The Duke brand (not of mayo, of course) carries a lot of prestige for a bowl, regardless of our recent football history. That, plus we guarantee ticket sales, gets us a good spot. But, let's get 8 or 9 wins, and move up the list. (Well, 7 first, but you understand!)

ETA: Old Link, there are 43 bowl games now. Even better odds. (Some do include FCS teams.)

7, 8 or 9 wins is the key thing. Just to keep my interest for a week longer on this tally of bowl eligible teams, I listed the 6 teams in Power 5 conferences that could get to 6 wins unexpectedly.

The interesting thing I am finding out (because I had little interest in the past) is the tie-ins. Army for instance is penciled in to the Independence Bowl and it looks like it does not matter what their record ends up being (they are currently 3-5). There are also group of 5 tie-ins and MAC tie-ins etc. So in reality there are only 10 or 11 spots for ACC teams and some of these spots are contingent on the placing of B10 and SEC schools.

So next year when we start looking at which bowl game Duke will play in, paying attention to B10 and SEC schools getting 7 losses is critical rather than looking at every school in FBS.

[msdukie]

With locations and dates (since I had to look up a few due to the constant name changes):

1. College Football Playoff Semifinal: If Selected

Capital One Orange Bowl
Highest-ranked available ACC team, if it’s not the ACC Champion.

First Tier

– Cheez-It Bowl vs Big 12 ORLANDO 12/29
– Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs Big Ten CHARLOTTE 12/30
– Fenway Bowl vs American Athletic BOSTON 12/17
– Military Bowl Presented by Peraton vs American Athletic ANNAPOLIS 12/27
– New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs Big Ten THE BRONX 12/29
– ReliaQuest Bowl vs SEC (or Big Ten) TAMPA 1/2
– San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs Pac-12 SAN DIEGO 12/28
– TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs SEC JACKSONVILLE 12/30
– Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl vs Pac-12 EL PASO 12/30

Second Tier

– Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl vs AAC, Pac-12 or SEC ST. PETE 12/23
– TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl vs SEC or AAC BIRMINGHAM 12/27
– SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs SEC or AAC or Pac-12 DALLAS 12/27

I'm not sure what the pecking order is for these? So Fenway is much earlier than the others so gives us a lot less practice. Selfishly, I might be able to get up to Boston for that one and it would be cool to see a game in Fenway. Beggars can't be choosers but I really hope we avoid El Paso. I live a short subway ride from the Pinstripe Bowl but have a vacation planned for that week - aargh.

Gasparilla Bowl moved from St. Pete to Tampa several years ago.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Gasparilla Bowl moved from St. Pete to Tampa several years ago.

Same church, different pew. It's not El Paso or Boston.

[Reilly]

McMurphy of Action Network reports there will be 41 bowls this year (82 teams) and no need for espn to create 42nd bowl as there will not be 84 6-win tesms.

[duke2x]

Again, by rule a five win team cannot bump a 6+ (bowl eligible) team. Not sure if the ACC will get more than nine teams in; regardless we’re not sitting at home for Christmas (other than the Fenway Bowl.)

There's two separate issues. Does Duke get a bowl? There's no argument there. Does Duke get a bowl spot based on merit over? That's TBD. The RDU crew can do their part by showing up in full force Saturday. You will have some bowl reps there.

[Acymetric]

I'm not sure how I missed this but I did not realize that the Continental Tire Bowl, Meineke Car Care Bowl, and Belk Bowl were the same bowl. I'd have told you the first two were still going (separately). Anyways, the Duke's Mayo Bowl is definitely the best option for me in terms of date and location but that will probably be tough if we are 3rd at best in the pecking order and nobody makes the playoffs.