We’re Going!! Duke Bowl Selection Discussion

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Happy to be going bowling at all in year 1, but I would really like a P5 bowl opponent.

Agreed! We're kind of in the same space as Tulane...trying to claw up.

In that regard, a bowl game against another smallish school does Duke zero good. Well, not zero good....but does not move the program forward like playing a bigger name...a name that will motivate Duke fans to travel, and a bigger school that will bring a ton of people.

[arnie]

They also have the cheats in the Orange Bowl instead of Clemson. I don't think either one of these will come true, but there's a lot of things that can happen in the next three weeks. There is one bowl predictor site that actually has Clemson making it back into the CFP, which would require quite a number of games to fall a certain way.

I tend to berate local Triangle sports; I’ll do it again (and I only listen in 10 minute stretches a few days a week).

Discussion on Cheats chances post ACC season assuming they win out including beating Clemson and now 12-1.
Adam Gold and guest believe they’re competing with one-loss Tennessee, Michigan, USC for 4th position in playoffs. Both are sure they get the 4th spot ahead of Michigan (who’s beaten no one) and likely USC. They’re not sure if Cheats would win out over Tennessee😀.

Of course, this Board knows Cheats best win so far has been over Duke and I don’t see how beating Clemson is so much better than Michigan’s win over Penn State. Whatever.

[sagegrouse]

Agreed! We're kind of in the same space as Tulane...trying to claw up.

In that regard, a bowl game against another smallish school does Duke zero good. Well, not zero good...but does not move the program forward like playing a bigger name...a name that will motivate Duke fans to travel, and a bigger school that will bring a ton of people.

I'm fine with most any opponent -- we get the extra weeks of practice to develop new plays and different coverages.

I hope Coach Elko has Cut's knack for bowl prep. Wasn't he 3-3, but could easily have been 5-1 with bad luck against Cincy and the A&M comeback?

[Dr. Maturin]

I'm fine with most any opponent -- we get the extra weeks of practice to develop new plays and different coverages.

I hope Coach Elko has Cut's knack for bowl prep. Wasn't he 3-3, but could easily have been 5-1 with bad luck against Cincy and the A&M comeback?

Would have beaten Arizona St as well had we not given up that long kickoff return after taking the lead late. Even then, still had a chance until Boone made a bad read and got picked off deep in ASU territory. Duke had no business winning that game, but Crowder nearly willed us to a win with a punt return TD and a TD pass.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm fine with most any opponent -- we get the extra weeks of practice to develop new plays and different coverages.

I hope Coach Elko has Cut's knack for bowl prep. Wasn't he 3-3, but could easily have been 5-1 with bad luck against Cincy and the A&M comeback?

And we took the lead in the fourth quarter of the Sun Bowl, only to give up an immediate kick-off TD return.

I agree with all of Sage’s points (as usual). The extra practice helps all our returning players for next season.

LGD!

[jv001]

I tend to berate local Triangle sports; I’ll do it again (and I only listen in 10 minute stretches a few days a week).

Discussion on Cheats chances post ACC season assuming they win out including beating Clemson and now 12-1.
Adam Gold and guest believe they’re competing with one-loss Tennessee, Michigan, USC for 4th position in playoffs. Both are sure they get the 4th spot ahead of Michigan (who’s beaten no one) and likely USC. They’re not sure if Cheats would win out over Tennessee😀.

Of course, this Board knows Cheats best win so far has been over Duke and I don’t see how beating Clemson is so much better than Michigan’s win over Penn State. Whatever.

When it comes to the Cheating Tar Heels, I don't put anything pass the ACC refs in the effort to get those cheating b------s a win.

GoDuke!

[Acymetric]

I'm fine with most any opponent -- we get the extra weeks of practice to develop new plays and different coverages.

I hope Coach Elko has Cut's knack for bowl prep. Wasn't he 3-3, but could easily have been 5-1 with bad luck against Cincy and the A&M comeback?

Certainly there are benefits to going bowling regardless of opponent, and I'll be happy for us to be there regardless, but Duke vs Tulane is the kind of game that gets 0 national attention. Nobody outside of Duke will care or be impressed if we win. Totally unfair to Tulane who is having a great season but that is just how it is for non-P5 teams. Better for the program to play someone with name recognition, if possible.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Sports Illustrated projects Tulane/Duke in Birmingham: https://www.si.com/college/2022/11/1...pac-12-carnage

Certainly there are benefits to going bowling regardless of opponent, and I'll be happy for us to be there regardless, but Duke vs Tulane is the kind of game that gets 0 national attention. Nobody outside of Duke will care or be impressed if we win. Totally unfair to Tulane who is having a great season but that is just how it is for non-P5 teams. Better for the program to play someone with name recognition, if possible.

Acy - can't really disagree with your national stance, but I will tell you it would get my attention. May need to think about a trip to Birmingham if that did happen to occur.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'm fine with most any opponent -- we get the extra weeks of practice to develop new plays and different coverages.

I hope Coach Elko has Cut's knack for bowl prep. Wasn't he 3-3, but could easily have been 5-1 with bad luck against Cincy and the A&M comeback?

Agree to a degree...on the one hand, not gonna pretend to be a bowl chooser after being a bowl beggar for so long...but man I'd hate to have the "oomph" of Elko's season be deflated a bit by a Tulane or something in a bowl. Yes, I realize vis a vis our pre season expectations that sounds absurd, but that was 11 long weeks ago.

And you're right about Cut and the bowl prep....of course, at least two of our opponents lost their coach to other jobs before the bowls....and i'm never getting over that clock management late in the half versus A and M....

[MarkD83]

Here is a quick update on bowl eligible teams:

65 teams with >6 wins with JMU not eligible so 64 teams for 82 slots.
There are another 20 with 5 wins and 18 with only 6 losses that have not been mathematically eliminated.

Perhaps more interesting is a conference break-down of teams with > 6 wins

ACC - 10 (Includes ND)
SEC - 9
B10 - 8
P12 - 7
B12 - 6
AAC - 6
MWC - 6
Sunbelt - 4
Conf USA - 3
MAC - 3
Independents - 2

And teams with 5 wins

ACC - 1
SEC - 1
B10 - 2
P12 - 0
B12 - 2
AAC - 1
MWC - 1
Sunbelt - 4
Conf USA - 4
MAC - 3
Independents - 1


Just wasting some time before the game tonight.

[Bob Green]

...but man I'd hate to have the "oomph" of Elko's season be deflated a bit by a Tulane or something in a bowl.

Tulane is 8-2 and ranked #21 in the AP Poll so I suspect they might desire to play a team with a bit bigger reputation than Duke. I have zero, nada, zilch issue with facing the Green Wave in a bowl game.

Respect the game, respect your opponent, respect yourself.

[OldPhiKap]

Tulane is 8-2 and ranked #21 in the AP Poll so I suspect they might desire to play a team with a bit bigger reputation than Duke. I have zero, nada, zilch issue with facing the Green Wave in a bowl game.

Respect the game, respect your opponent, respect yourself.

Exactly. We’d be an underdog to the Green Wave if we played today.

And for me, Birmingham is an easy drive. Better this bowl than a pre-Christmas game in Boston IMO (although again I’m just happy to be amongst the anointed, and Boston is a great town).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Tulane is 8-2 and ranked #21 in the AP Poll so I suspect they might desire to play a team with a bit bigger reputation than Duke. I have zero, nada, zilch issue with facing the Green Wave in a bowl game.

Respect the game, respect your opponent, respect yourself.

Methinks my point was missed a bit. I don't disagree with a single word you said above. I am purely speaking from a long time fan / 30 thousand foot view / historical perspective. I am not advocating that any current coach or player think like this. Nor would I advocate for people in any form of the media think like this. Duke players and coaches must respect the game, the opponent, etc. Whether or not fans do, it won't impact the outcome.

Moreover, I suspect Tulane fans would be disappointed to face Duke in a bowl game....for the same reasons I would be a bit disappointed to see them as our bowl opponent. Both schools are trying to move past the small school niche. You do that by playing big name opponents in full stadiums with a lot of TV eyeballs - and playing well. Duke v. A and M. Arizona State. Etc. Those were losses that still can be argued advanced the program. (Winning those games, and we led both late, would have done even more of course. Especially A and M.)

I don't think beating Temple in a bowl did us any good long term particularly. Ditto Northern Ill. Beating Indiana in NYC was nice, probably more because of the venue, and capping the season of the Miami debacle with a win, than any mojo from beating Indiana per se. I think the A and M game probably did more for the program than any other bowl game, for a number of reasons, even in defeat. (I might add that clearly A and M was disappointed to be playing Duke...)

[Reilly]

Ordering by overall wins first and then SRS placement, we have a claim, as of now, to the ACC's 6th-best bowl.

9-win teams

#12Clem (Mia, SoCar, N-UNC)
#27UNC (GT, NCSU, N-Clem)

7-win teams

#11FSU (Lou, UF)
#16ND (BC, @USC)
#33NCSU (@Lville, @UNC)
#40DUKE (@Pitt, WFU)

6-win teams

#22Lville (NCSU, @UK)
#26WFU (Syr, @Duke)
#35Syr (@WFU, @BC)
#46Pitt (Duke, @Mia)

5-win teams

#77Mia (@Clem, Pitt)

4-win teams

#96GT (@UNC, @UGA)

# = placement per SRS at sports-reference https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...2-ratings.html

[budwom]

May have to choose between Frosted Flakes and mayonnaise...what I choose could depend upon the time of day.

[Reilly]

May have to choose between Frosted Flakes and mayonnaise...what I choose could depend upon the time of day.

Luckily, either pairs well with beer.

[BigWayne]

Ordering by overall wins first and then SRS placement, we have a claim, as of now, to the ACC's 6th-best bowl.

9-win teams

#12Clem (Mia, SoCar, N-UNC)
#27UNC (GT, NCSU, N-Clem)

7-win teams

#11FSU (Lou, UF)
#16ND (BC, @USC)
#33NCSU (@Lville, @UNC)
#40DUKE (@Pitt, WFU)

6-win teams

#22Lville (NCSU, @UK)
#26WFU (Syr, @Duke)
#35Syr (@WFU, @BC)
#46Pitt (Duke, @Mia)

5-win teams

#77Mia (@Clem, Pitt)

4-win teams

#96GT (@UNC, @UGA)

# = placement per SRS at sports-reference https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...2-ratings.html

That's why it's important to win at least one more game to stay even or above the current 6 win teams.

[budwom]

Exactly. We’d be an underdog to the Green Wave if we played today.

And for me, Birmingham is an easy drive. Better this bowl than a pre-Christmas game in Boston IMO (although again I’m just happy to be amongst the anointed, and Boston is a great town).

I see that Sagarin, who often tracks with the oddsmakers, would only have Two Lane a 1.5 favorite against us...

[Reilly]

That's why it's important to win at least one more game to stay even or above the current 6 win teams.

So best case scenario (in terms of Duke outpacing others in total wins) is we win out and get to 9 ... FSU beats LA (24 point fave, trying to be realistic) and loses rivalry game to UF and lands at 8 ... ND beats BC and loses to USC to land at 8 ... NCSU loses two road games and stays at 7 ... Lville beats State to get to 7 and then loses to UK to stay at 7 ... Wake beats Syr to get to 7 and loses to Duke and stays at 7 ... Syr loses to Wake to stay at 6 and who cares v. BC to end at 6/7 ... Pitt loses out (Duke, @Mia) to stay at 6 ...

There, that's 15 outcomes I'd like to see. I've been a fan a long time and I feel that I deserve all 15. If I only get 14/15 and NCSU beats UNC to get to 8, I can live with that.

[Reilly]

I see that Sagarin, who often tracks with the oddsmakers, would only have Two Lane a 1.5 favorite against us...

Ditto the SRS linked above ... often spot-on with regards to the line (when including the +/- 3 for home field) .. on a neutral field has Tulane 1.88 points better than Duke.