View Poll Results: Which will be the top 5 movies at the boxoffice this winter?

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24. You may not vote on this poll
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Nov 11)

    24 100.00%
  • Strange World (Nov 23)

    16 66.67%
  • The Fablemans (Nov 23)

    1 4.17%
  • Avatar 2 (Dec 16)

    24 100.00%
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dec 21)

    10 41.67%
  • Babylon (Dec 23)

    3 12.50%
  • M3gan (Jan 6)

    2 8.33%
  • A Man Called Otto (Jan 13)

    4 16.67%
  • Magic Mike's Last Dance (Feb 10)

    2 8.33%
  • Ant Man & The Wasp: Quantumania (Feb 17)

    24 100.00%
  • Field

    9 37.50%
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Pick the Top 5 boxoffice hits of winter 2022-23

    Ok, yet another false start... maybe I will finally get it right with this thread.

    It is time for the winter movie poll. For folks who have not done this before, here is the 2021-22 and the 2019-20 threads on this topic.

    You should know the rules by now. You pick the 5 movies (not 4, not 6, don't make me go all Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch on you) that you think will generate the most domestic (not international!!) boxoffice during the winter season. We are defining the season as November 4 to Feb 28th. You can pick any film released in that time frame. Yes, that is a long time, but it will give you a lot of interesting films to pick from. We will determine the winner based on boxoffice receipts from November 4 through March 30th. If we have not formally declared the winners before March 30th, the contest will end at that time.

    Here are the films you will pick from
    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Nov 11)
    Strange World (Nov 23)
    The Fablemans (Nov 23)
    Avatar 2 (Dec 16)
    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dec 21)
    Babylon (Dec 23)
    M3gan (Jan 6)
    A Man Called Otto (Jan 13)
    Magic Mike's Last Dance (Feb 10)
    Ant Man & The Wasp: Quantumania (Feb 17)

    Additionally, you can pick "field" and will be judged as having a correct pick if any other sleeper film finds their way into the top 5.

    I know, I know... there are three mortal locks in there. You'd have to be insane to pick against any of them. Well, the contest will really come down to who can pick the last two. Good luck, everybody!

    -Jason "as always, please post in this thread with your thoughts and ideas about your picks... the contest will close on November 4th so get those picks in promptly
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I didn't realize Wick came out so late, so yeah, good call on not including it. Figuring out those two non-locks is not an easy bet. My biggest question is who will make more, BP or Avatar. I'm guessing that both will top 1 billion. Has that ever happened in the winter contest? Guessing no.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    You should know the rules by now. You pick the 5 movies (not 4, not 6, don't make me go all Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch on you) that you think will generate the most domestic (not international!!) boxoffice during the winter season.
    Grenade me! (but I'm sticking with my picks, which were intentional)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
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    Seattle
    Black Panther, Ant Man, and Avatar are the 3 locks. Strange World feels like a pretty safe selection.

    Last pick came down to Magic Mike and Puss In Boots (sure there's a joke to be made here) for me. First Magic Mike hit $166mil domestic and the second dropped off to $122mil. First Puss in Boots hit $149mil. Both sit next to major releases, but December feels like a better bet than February.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Grenade me! (but I'm sticking with my picks, which were intentional)
    I am gonna interpret this as 2 field picks. If others want to do this, that is fine.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    I'm really tempted to take the field for one of the picks, but that seldom turns out to mean much, so i went with Tom Hanks as Otto, even though i hate the release schedule. In any case, my picks are in.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Best field chances:

    A Knock at the Cabin - M Night takes on apocalyptic horror, though I think it is more psychological horror than typical horror tropes.
    She Said - Not impossible to imagine this look at the investigation into Harvey Weinstein picks up Oscar buzz and becomes the next Spotlight (which made about $100 mil at the boxoffice)
    Devotion - Jonathan Majors and Glen Powell star as Korean war pilots who must survive after they crash behind enemy lines. Maybe Glen Powell has some Maverick magic left in him?
    Violent Night- David Harbour as a butt-kicking Santa Claus
    I Wanna Dance With Somebody - The Whitney Houston story from the producers of Bohemian Rhapsody
    The Whale - lots of Oscar buzz for Brendan Frasier's return to stardom in this story of a 600-pound man trying to eat himself to death. Directed by Darren Aronofsky (Noah, Black Swan, The Wrestler).
    80 for Brady - Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Rita Moreno and Sally Field star as Patriots fans who go to Super Bowl LI to watch Tom Brady lead New England to victory. Do old people still go to the movies?
    Cocaine Bear - Directed by Elizabeth Banks, this is a film based on the true story about a black bear that ingested 70 pounds of cocaine and began attacking people. Yes, I am serious.

    The other compelling pick here is Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Netflix is doing something very strange with its release. It will run for one week an then be pulled from theaters. One week only. It will appear on Netflix a few weeks after that "special preview." If this was getting a full run in theaters, it would be a no-brainer and would easily earn well over $100 million (Knives Out made $165 mil). But, with just one week in theaters, can this film really earn enough to be a player in our contest? Could it do $100 mil in one week? With people knowing they will be able to see it on Netflix for free just a few weeks later? This is probably the biggest question mark of the entire film season!


    Here is a picture of Daniel Craig and Edward Norton debating the release strategy for Glass Onion. The films also stars Janelle MonŠe, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Dave Bautista, and Ethan Hawke.
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 10-31-2022 at 10:20 AM.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #8
    Against my better judgement, I'm going with a Field option.

    I'll be honest, none of these movies really get me excited. A Man Called Otto looks to be the most enjoyable as a reboot of the "Gumpy Old Men" into "Grump Old Man"

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    While "The Whale" got rave reviews and a nap enducing standing ovation for Fraser at Cannes, I think it will do very poorly at the box office. Some of the reads coming out of the showing at the Austin Film Festival were pretty rough on it.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  10. #10
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    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Otto and Strange World filled out my last top two. Hard to vote against Hanks and Disney.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    North of Chicago
    (1) I think four and five are nothing more than a bunch of coin flips. I agree The Whale is too depressing, but otherwise? Seems like you can make a case for/against any of them.
    (2) I picked it, but is there really that much desire for new Avatar content? It's going to be top 5, but I figure it's going to get trounced by the Marvel entries into the winter movie landscape. Then again, I thought Avatar was absolutely awful. Like laughably bad.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    I picked it, but is there really that much desire for new Avatar content? It's going to be top 5, but I figure it's going to get trounced by the Marvel entries into the winter movie landscape. Then again, I thought Avatar was absolutely awful. Like laughably bad.
    Betting against James Cameron has historically been a fool's errand. Dude basically has not made a single bad movie in his entire career (your personal distaste for Avatar notwithstanding) and he sets boxoffice records almost every time he releases a film. I'm not exactly clamoring for a new Avatar film either (the ending of the last movie really makes a sequel unnecessary) but Cameron has more than earned the right to do what he wants... and the vast majority of the public will probably love it.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Betting against James Cameron has historically been a fool's errand. Dude basically has not made a single bad movie in his entire career (your personal distaste for Avatar notwithstanding) and he sets boxoffice records almost every time he releases a film. I'm not exactly clamoring for a new Avatar film either (the ending of the last movie really makes a sequel unnecessary) but Cameron has more than earned the right to do what he wants... and the vast majority of the public will probably love it.
    I know I'm an outlier Jason. Just throwing out there the idea that Avatar's going to compete with Wakanda Forever, to me, seems unlikely. There's no question even in my Avatar-ambivalent mind that it will be one of the top three movies on this list, and I voted accordingly. I just wonder if it will be closer to number 5 than number 1.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    I know I'm an outlier Jason. Just throwing out there the idea that Avatar's going to compete with Wakanda Forever, to me, seems unlikely. There's no question even in my Avatar-ambivalent mind that it will be one of the top three movies on this list, and I voted accordingly. I just wonder if it will be closer to number 5 than number 1.
    The top 3 are gonna be the top 3... ain't no other film gonna threaten those 3. They will each earn well over $300 mil and there is no other film in the pipeline for Nov - end of Feb that is gonna come anywhere close to that kind of figure.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Betting against James Cameron has historically been a fool's errand. Dude basically has not made a single bad movie in his entire career (your personal distaste for Avatar notwithstanding) and he sets boxoffice records almost every time he releases a film. I'm not exactly clamoring for a new Avatar film either (the ending of the last movie really makes a sequel unnecessary) but Cameron has more than earned the right to do what he wants... and the vast majority of the public will probably love it.
    There are plenty of good roasts of Avatar on YouTube if you want to look them up. I tend to agree that the story was just bad. Shockingly bad. Rewatching a year or two ago, didn't help. Second time around was even worse than I remembered since the "shock and awe" of the graphics had worn off.

    Anways...wouldn't be surprised at all if it tops BP2.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    There are plenty of good roasts of Avatar on YouTube if you want to look them up. I tend to agree that the story was just bad. Shockingly bad. Rewatching a year or two ago, didn't help. Second time around was even worse than I remembered since the "shock and awe" of the graphics had worn off.

    Anways...wouldn't be surprised at all if it tops BP2.
    nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people

    Maybe I should have posted this on the election thread.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by acdevil View Post
    nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people

    Maybe I should have posted this on the election thread.
    Is all just a big popularity contest isn't it?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    There are plenty of good roasts of Avatar on YouTube if you want to look them up. I tend to agree that the story was just bad. Shockingly bad. Rewatching a year or two ago, didn't help. Second time around was even worse than I remembered since the "shock and awe" of the graphics had worn off.

    Anways...wouldn't be surprised at all if it tops BP2.
    I'll be shocked if BP2 doesn't shatter many records. It has just too much going for it, including early rave reviews. I think it will easily be the #1 movie.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #19
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    Jun 2022
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    Virginia
    After the near-certain top 3, I went with Strange Worlds and Field. For Field, I am specifically voting for I Wanna Dance With Somebody. I think it is a very solid bet to outperform most of the other options in the poll, based on the domestic box office totals for Bohemian Rhapsody ($216M) and Rocketman ($96M). This is recent evidence of an appetite for musical biopics, and it opens over the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.

    I had a tough choice between Strange Worlds and Puss N Boots. Part of my calculus is that Puss N Boots has to compete directly with Avatar 2, which will also draw kids. My needle-threading gamble is that I Wanna Dance With Somebody will draw more adults away from Avatar 2 than Puss N Boots will draw kids away from Avatar 2. I expect it to be close, though.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by pcal6vb View Post
    After the near-certain top 3, I went with Strange Worlds and Field. For Field, I am specifically voting for I Wanna Dance With Somebody. I think it is a very solid bet to outperform most of the other options in the poll, based on the domestic box office totals for Bohemian Rhapsody ($216M) and Rocketman ($96M). This is recent evidence of an appetite for musical biopics, and it opens over the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.

    I had a tough choice between Strange Worlds and Puss N Boots. Part of my calculus is that Puss N Boots has to compete directly with Avatar 2, which will also draw kids. My needle-threading gamble is that I Wanna Dance With Somebody will draw more adults away from Avatar 2 than Puss N Boots will draw kids away from Avatar 2. I expect it to be close, though.
    Avatar was not a kids movie, what makes you think Avatar 2 would be?

    Maybe my definition of "kids movie" is a bit old fashioned.

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