View Poll Results: Which will be the top 5 movies at the boxoffice this winter?

Voters
24. You may not vote on this poll
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Nov 11)

    24 100.00%
  • Strange World (Nov 23)

    16 66.67%
  • The Fablemans (Nov 23)

    1 4.17%
  • Avatar 2 (Dec 16)

    24 100.00%
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dec 21)

    10 41.67%
  • Babylon (Dec 23)

    3 12.50%
  • M3gan (Jan 6)

    2 8.33%
  • A Man Called Otto (Jan 13)

    4 16.67%
  • Magic Mike's Last Dance (Feb 10)

    2 8.33%
  • Ant Man & The Wasp: Quantumania (Feb 17)

    24 100.00%
  • Field

    9 37.50%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 61 to 78 of 78
  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ant Man coming up next week...

    I suspect that a week or two after Ant Man opens we will be able to say goodbye to this edition of the contest. I strongly suspect that the top 5 will be:

    1. Avatar 2 - $650+ mil
    2. Black Panther 2 - $450+ mil
    3. Ant Man 3 - likely in the $350 mil arena
    4. Puss in Boots 2 - $175+ mil
    5. and M3gan - $100+ mil

    I don't see Cocaine Bear catching M3gan, but you never know.
    Early takes are out from yesterday's screenings for critics, and the overall opinion seems to be "Does not suck at all, Jonathan Majors is the bomb".
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    "Does not suck at all, Jonathan Majors is the bomb".
    He is a Heel...

  3. #63
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Early takes are out from yesterday's screenings for critics, and the overall opinion seems to be "Does not suck at all, Jonathan Majors is the bomb".
    Will let you know on Tuesday. That is when they screen it for critics nationwide.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #64
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    He is a Heel...
    Everyone has at least one fault...
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    He is a Heel...
    But, there is a universe where he went to Duke, I am sure of it!
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  6. #66
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Will let you know on Tuesday. That is when they screen it for critics nationwide.
    It's a lock of course, but currently sitting at 61% on RT. Ouch. That's surprising for the movie that is the launch of the next MCU phase.
    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ant...sp_quantumania
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #67
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    With Quantumania sitting at a 52% RT rating, it will be interesting to see if it lives up to expectations at the box office. I know it's going to be in our Top 5, but with those reviews I can see many who were going to go deciding to wait for it to come out on Disney + in a couple months.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    With Quantumania sitting at a 52% RT rating, it will be interesting to see if it lives up to expectations at the box office. I know it's going to be in our Top 5, but with those reviews I can see many who were going to go deciding to wait for it to come out on Disney + in a couple months.

    C'mon Cocaine Bear!

  9. #69
    It is official, Ant-man is now amongst the Top 5 with an estimated $118 million this weekend. It looks like we are waiting to see if Cocaine Bear, which will be released this week, can hit 9 figures and unseat M3gan at $93.6 million.

  10. #70
    It is Cocaine Bear time…

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    It is Cocaine Bear time…
    Consensus seems to be an opening of just under $20 mil... which won't allow it to catch M3gan unless it has truly phenomenal legs. It is a buzzy film and should get good word of mouth, but I think the $94-95 mil that M3gan will make (currently at $93 mil, and pretty much done) may be a little too much. We will probably know by next weekend.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Consensus seems to be an opening of just under $20 mil... which won't allow it to catch M3gan unless it has truly phenomenal legs. It is a buzzy film and should get good word of mouth, but I think the $94-95 mil that M3gan will make (currently at $93 mil, and pretty much done) may be a little too much. We will probably know by next weekend.
    So, Cocaine Bear is the talk of Hollwood after it opened at $23 million, considerably better than even the most optimistic projections. But, the Cinemascore was just a B- which could mean it won't get as much buzz and word of mouth as some had hoped. I think getting to M3gan's $95 mil ain't gonna happen but we need a week or two to know for sure.

    Meanwhile, it won't affect our contest at all but the 2nd weekend for Quantumania was AWFUL! It fell 69%, the biggest drop ever for a Marvel film and made just $32.2 million. Marvel films are often front-loaded (Marvel fans want to see them right away, not wait to be spoiled) but a near 70% drop is really serious. Ant Man 3 is currently at $167 mil in total boxoffice, easily enough to be in our top 5, but I suspect this film will only barely cross the $200 mil mark and likely not even reach the $224 mil that Shang-Chi made in the middle of the pandemic! And we are talking about a film that is introducing the main villain of the entire next phase of the MCU. Whew, Kevin Feigie has to be in panic mode right about now.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #73
    Idk... At some point Marvel is going to reboot the MCU. Maybe not this year, or next, but at some point they will.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Idk... At some point Marvel is going to reboot the MCU. Maybe not this year, or next, but at some point they will.
    Or they may have jumped to a timeline where the MCU franchise is still going strong, leaving this one to wither and die.

  15. #75
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    Feb 2007
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    Atlanta, GA
    Honest question:
    Are they still writing actual Marvel comic books in any volume, or is it just a cinematic property at this point?
    I'm long since tired of reboots, and it seems that the ever-burgeoning supply of inspirational print material should provide plenty of movie fodder?

    Are there any superheroes currently popular in print who have not yet gotten the big-screen treatment?
    I'm truly wondering. I watch essentially zero superhero films and know next to nothing about comic books.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Honest question:
    Are they still writing actual Marvel comic books in any volume, or is it just a cinematic property at this point?
    I'm long since tired of reboots, and it seems that the ever-burgeoning supply of inspirational print material should provide plenty of movie fodder?

    Are there any superheroes currently popular in print who have not yet gotten the big-screen treatment?
    I'm truly wondering. I watch essentially zero superhero films and know next to nothing about comic books.
    Yes. Both Marvel, DC and several smaller outfits still publish many books in both physical and digital editions. It's still a big business and like some businesses it got a huge boost from the Pandemic.

    As for movie adaptations, that gets complicated by money. Disney needs to put out blockbusters so it's not worth it for them to use a lesser know property. Where as Marvel alone could have done fine putting out movies that make $100-250 million, Disney can not..anymore at least. Heck the marketing budgets alone are in that range now. Guardians was Disney's first big stretch. Shang-Chi was really their only other one and I'm sure that was a calculated gamble on the Chinese market. Plus they want ancillary revenue from toys and merchandise and park tie-ins. That's why they keep going back to the known and popular characters. They can take a chance with a Disney+ series like Hawkeye or Moon Knight but not on the a big budget project. Pre-Disney Marvel was fortunate that the first Iron Man movie struck gold. That was a C-Tier property. The A-Tier was Spider-man, The Fantastic Four, Cap, the X-Men, and the Hulk. They didn't have the rights so they gave Iron Man a try. Disney is going to mine familiarity so that means known properties and spin outs of those properties. Disney is not in the business of advancing cinema. They are in the business of making money which is fine. Both their movie and animation divisions have had a history of ebbs and flows. I remember a time when people thought their animation division was dead. It eventually came back bigger than before. Now, the Marvel division is going through the same cycle. The biggest difference is Marvel's long winning streak and the sheer dollars involved now. Marvel has 5000+ characters so yes there is a vast trove material. How much is bankable is the question? Smaller studies probably could mine it and make a nice profit but I doubt Disney was license anything out.

    As for popular characters without a movie, DC has Blue Beetle in the works.

  17. #77
    Just a note for older comics fans… the DC Blue Beetle that’s in the works is the new Blue Beetle, not Ted Kord. Should still be a blast if they adapt it even halfway properly.

    As for the question about popular characters without a movie, DC has tons, but being fair, they also do not have 30+ movies released like Marvel.

  18. #78
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    All done

    Cocaine Bear earned $6.2 mil in its third weekend of release, a 44% drop from last week and enough to bring its total to $51.6 mil. It is doing fine, but it is clear that Cocain Bear will not be able to catch the $95+ million of M3gan. As such, I am making the call.

    Our contest is done!

    Mad props to jacone21 and YmoBeThere for picking M3gan, which was easily the most difficult film to forecast as a contender in this contest (but they both whiffed badly on Strange World instead of Puss in Boots).

    Unless I missed something, I believe these are the final standings:
    1. Avatar: Way of Water - $674.6 mil
    2. Black Panther: Wakanda - $453.8 mil
    3. Ant Man: Quantumania - $197.9 mil
    4. Puss in Boots: Last Wish - $179.6 mil
    5. M3gan - $95.0 mil
    6. Man Called Otto - $63.8 mil
    7. Cocaine Bear - $51.6 mil


    I think several of us got 4 out of 5, but no one nailed all 5. Like many of you, I got Avatar, Panther, Ant, and Puss... but that fifth film... whew.

    Anyway, we will be back at this in April for films released in May - Aug. Have fun picking among Guardians, Fast X, Oppenheimer, Spiderverse, Indiana Jones, Little Mermaid, Mission Impossible, Flash, Barbie, Transformers, and Elemental. I think this summer's contest may be the most difficult yet. Those are 11 legit contenders.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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