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  1. #1

    Our Defense: Nature vs. Nurture

    Our defense is clearly elite. It’s at a level arguably not seen since the OAD era at Duke.

    How much of that is the inherent skill of the players versus deep commitment to team D that Coach Scheyer has instilled in them?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilYouKnow View Post
    Our defense is clearly elite. It’s at a level arguably not seen since the OAD era at Duke.

    How much of that is the inherent skill of the players versus deep commitment to team D that Coach Scheyer has instilled in them?
    Since the start of march, duke's defense is 18th in the country (per t-rank). Duke's defense has been better than that several time in the OAD era, sometimes significantly so.

    2011: 9
    2015: 11
    2018: 9
    2019: 6
    2020: 12

    Jon has this defense playing great, but claiming it's a level not seen in the OAD era is a bit of a short term memory.



    It's also a weird time to bring this up as the defense was mediocre vs pitt and miami.
    1200. DDMF.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Since the start of march, duke's defense is 18th in the country (per t-rank). Duke's defense has been better than that several time in the OAD era, sometimes significantly so.

    2011: 9
    2015: 11
    2018: 9
    2019: 6
    2020: 12

    Jon has this defense playing great, but claiming it's a level not seen in the OAD era is a bit of a short term memory.



    It's also a weird time to bring this up as the defense was mediocre vs pitt and miami.
    Thanks for the stats. I just think this season the defense looks better for whatever reason. Maybe it's the way we're handling our switch situations.

    GoDuke!

  4. #4
    Numbers might say other teams were better, but from the eye-test this team plays better team defense to me. Maybe it's all the years of watching other teams blow by Duke players for easy layups time after time after time again that have clouded my memory

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Mrezt View Post
    Numbers might say other teams were better, but from the eye-test this team plays better team defense to me. Maybe it's all the years of watching other teams blow by Duke players for easy layups time after time after time again that have clouded my memory
    Depends on what numbers you use. One set of numbers says we held UVA to 17 points in the first half of an ACC Tournament final, tied for the lowest ever, set in 1970.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Chicago

    Lively

    makes this defense unique (especially to the eye test). We've never really had an elite rim protector who also has the agility to switch and guard on the perimeter. It is quite remarkable to watch.
    Windy City Devil

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachJ10 View Post
    makes this defense unique (especially to the eye test). We've never really had an elite rim protector who also has the agility to switch and guard on the perimeter. It is quite remarkable to watch.
    It’s been a while, but I recall Shelden being able to hold his own when switched out onto the perimeter — at least long enough to switch back.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachJ10 View Post
    makes this defense unique (especially to the eye test). We've never really had an elite rim protector who also has the agility to switch and guard on the perimeter. It is quite remarkable to watch.
    DLive is a big, big part of it. He has sort of an invisible radius/force field kind of thing, whereas he can cover anything that comes into his area. I'd say the force field has a radius of 7-8'.

    Seeing him play live, it becomes very apparent that his presence is a complete game changer in the half court.
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  9. #9
    What is our Drtg with Lively in vs not?

  10. #10
    I don't know why the metrics say otherwise, but I do not remember seeing a young team play such good team defense. The guards not only don't get beat easily but fight through screens and don't just concede the switch. We generally get good rotation from Mitchell and Flip. We guard the 3 about as well as you can expect considering that there were some really good shooters in the ACC this year.

    Would I be off base to think that a lot of our points are scored on the many turnovers we give up, as well as when Lively and Mitchell are out of the game?

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Maged View Post
    I don't know why the metrics say otherwise, but I do not remember seeing a young team play such good team defense.
    I suspect part of the disconnect is what we watch for when we assess a defense — how it performs in half court situations where it gets to set up and dictate terms.

    I bet points scored by the opponent off of turnovers and defensive rebounds explain one reason the metrics don’t love this defense as I do.

    But more than metrics, I will put weight in Bennett’s assessment of Duke’s D:

    “I think they're a good defensive team,” Virginia’s Tony Bennett acknowledged. “They've really come together that way. Their length and their athleticism was real, and I think at times it sped us up, and we were at times a little bit uncharacteristic or a bit rushed.”

    While Duke has made defense their calling card all season, until they finally got healthy in February, they did not had enough time together on the court to make it a consistent, reliable force.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I suspect part of the disconnect is what we watch for when we assess a defense — how it performs in half court situations where it gets to set up and dictate terms.

    I bet points scored by the opponent off of turnovers and defensive rebounds explain one reason the metrics don’t love this defense as I do.
    .
    Good point.

    I'm a believer in metrics...but also a believer in the eye test and other factors. A 25-30 game college season is simply not the same law of large numbers sample that a 162 game baseball season is...and the rush to analyze everything numerically started in MLB. IOW...I think metrics is a guide, but I don't think you can "Moneyball" your way to ultimate truth in college BB.

    Some at DBR think it's end all be all.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Since the start of march, duke's defense is 18th in the country (per t-rank). Duke's defense has been better than that several time in the OAD era, sometimes significantly so.

    2011: 9
    2015: 11
    2018: 9
    2019: 6
    2020: 12

    Jon has this defense playing great, but claiming it's a level not seen in the OAD era is a bit of a short term memory.



    It's also a weird time to bring this up as the defense was mediocre vs pitt and miami.
    I went to T-Rank and looked at the ADJDE (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) column. It is, indeed, #18 "since the start of March", but why confine it to such a tiny stretch of time? Duke is #21 over the whole season so far, which should be more meaningful.

    Also, while I have personal weaknesses in the fields of both statistics and memory, I seem to remember DBR concerns about our defensive rating back in 2015, as the team worked their way toward a title. You list them as #11, and that is in fact their ADJDE rank over the whole season, but that squad was #46 at the end of February. It moved up to #11 because they had the #3 defense over March and April. I think someone kept track of their defensive ranking game by game, as the team kept winning. We can re-create it here:

    #39 Start of ACC Tournament -- March 10, 2015
    #33 After ACCT Quarterfinal Win
    #32 After ACCT Semifinal Loss (same on Selection Sunday)
    #31 After NCAAT First Round
    #24 After NCAAT Second Round
    #19 After NCAAT Third Round
    #17 After NCAAT Fourth Round
    #16 After NCAAT National Semifinal
    #16 After NCAAT National Championship -- April 7, 2015

    Huh. For whatever reason, T-Rank moves Duke up from #16 to #11 on May 1, nearly a month after the season is over. (It's still #16 on April 30.) The site has a default date setting of November 1 to May 1 for each season, so it's going to say #11 even if maybe it isn't.

    That #21 ranking for this season is also a lie. If we keep the season start date of November 1, 2022 but change the end date from May 1, 2023 to today, Duke is ranked #25.

    Anyway, if we measure Duke's ADJDE ranking on Selection Sundays, we get the following.

    2023: #25
    2022: #39
    2021: #84 (not selected to tournament)
    2020: #10 (tournament cancelled)
    2019: #5
    2018: #14
    2017: #37
    2016: #74
    2015: #32
    2014: #58
    2013: #29
    2012: #61
    2011: #3
    2010: #5

    Duke's OAD era starts in 2011, but I threw in 2010 for the fun of it. On past Selection Sundays, compared to today, Duke had a higher rated ADJDE in 2010, 2011, 2018, and 2019, and slightly lower rated ADJDE in 2013 and 2015. With the Sweet Sixteen exception of 2011, it's interesting that Duke at least made the Elite Eight in each of those NCAA Tournaments.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    From what I have read, Jai Lucas is the defensive coordinator. That's the first coaching voice from outside the K/Duke tree in a long time. I am sure he deserves a lot of credit.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I went to T-Rank and looked at the ADJDE (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) column. It is, indeed, #18 "since the start of March", but why confine it to such a tiny stretch of time? Duke is #21 over the whole season so far, which should be more meaningful.

    Also, while I have personal weaknesses in the fields of both statistics and memory, I seem to remember DBR concerns about our defensive rating back in 2015, as the team worked their way toward a title. You list them as #11, and that is in fact their ADJDE rank over the whole season, but that squad was #46 at the end of February. It moved up to #11 because they had the #3 defense over March and April. I think someone kept track of their defensive ranking game by game, as the team kept winning. We can re-create it here:

    #39 Start of ACC Tournament -- March 10, 2015
    #33 After ACCT Quarterfinal Win
    #32 After ACCT Semifinal Loss (same on Selection Sunday)
    #31 After NCAAT First Round
    #24 After NCAAT Second Round
    #19 After NCAAT Third Round
    #17 After NCAAT Fourth Round
    #16 After NCAAT National Semifinal
    #16 After NCAAT National Championship -- April 7, 2015

    Huh. For whatever reason, T-Rank moves Duke up from #16 to #11 on May 1, nearly a month after the season is over. (It's still #16 on April 30.) The site has a default date setting of November 1 to May 1 for each season, so it's going to say #11 even if maybe it isn't.

    That #21 ranking for this season is also a lie. If we keep the season start date of November 1, 2022 but change the end date from May 1, 2023 to today, Duke is ranked #25.

    Anyway, if we measure Duke's ADJDE ranking on Selection Sundays, we get the following.

    2023: #25
    2022: #39
    2021: #84 (not selected to tournament)
    2020: #10 (tournament cancelled)
    2019: #5
    2018: #14
    2017: #37
    2016: #74
    2015: #32
    2014: #58
    2013: #29
    2012: #61
    2011: #3
    2010: #5

    Duke's OAD era starts in 2011, but I threw in 2010 for the fun of it. On past Selection Sundays, compared to today, Duke had a higher rated ADJDE in 2010, 2011, 2018, and 2019, and slightly lower rated ADJDE in 2013 and 2015. With the Sweet Sixteen exception of 2011, it's interesting that Duke at least made the Elite Eight in each of those NCAA Tournaments.

    great work. The infernal question is how to measure ones recent play...and whether it represents a huge improvement over the season average, or is the result of small sample size. In theory, measuring since "march" would show the former moreso than the latter.

    In any case, the bar for rebuttal was pretty low, as the claim was that this was the best in the OAC era, and clearly it is not, despite being very good. Exactly how much good it is is a ?, as it may be we have had a couple good results lately, or it could be much improved. We shall see!

    Either way, the defense is playing pretty good right now, and not so poorly that I would call it a tournament liability as I might have in previous years.
    1200. DDMF.

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