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  1. #381
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    greater New Orleans area
    Quote Originally Posted by HayYou View Post
    I...

    As another poster said, "getting bowl eligible has gotten a lot harder."

    ...
    I can't imagine how...with the number of bowls, doesn't almost half of the FBS get into a game? It is way easier to get to a bowl now than it was in the not-so-distant past.

    I thought Duke played a tough game. GT team remained a bit hyped by the firing of their HC and took it upon themselves to win one. Next week their O and D line may not even show up. Duke was the in the opposite emotional state...just won a regular season ACC game for the first time in a while and probably had a tough time concentrating getting ready throughout the week. Those emotions an experienced winning HC will figure out how to manage better; let's hope he gets there.

    Enjoyed watching them fight and hope to see some precision return this week. Unfortunately, I'd expect some aggressive defense this weekend, given the success it had on Saturday.

  2. #382
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    I can't imagine how...with the number of bowls, doesn't almost half of the FBS get into a game? It is way easier to get to a bowl now than it was in the not-so-distant past.
    Giving said poster the benefit of the doubt, I assume they mean simply from a scheduling perspective of looking behind and looking ahead. We have the meat of our schedule in front of us, and losing to GaTech means we have to find an additional win ahead of us.

  3. #383
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    I can't imagine how...with the number of bowls, doesn't almost half of the FBS get into a game? It is way easier to get to a bowl now than it was in the not-so-distant past.
    The current Sagarin ratings predict that Duke has about an 85% chance of winning 6 or more games.

    Based on the current ratings, Duke should be favored (about a 70% chance of winning) vs BC and Virginia Tech and should be an underdog (30-40% chance of winning) vs UNC, Miami, Pitt, and Wake. I am personally less optimistic that Duke pulls off an upset vs UNC, Miami, Pitt or Wake, but Sagarin gives Duke about an 80% chance of winning at least one of these four games.

    If Duke had managed to beat GT in OT, Sagarin would have given Duke a 98% chance of getting to 6 wins.

  4. #384
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Giving said poster the benefit of the doubt, I assume they mean simply from a scheduling perspective of looking behind and looking ahead. We have the meat of our schedule in front of us, and losing to GaTech means we have to find an additional win ahead of us.
    It should be noted that there is a very high chance that we get in a bowl if we have only 5 wins. I'm not settling or anything, but the view that it's suddenly dire because we lost on saturday doesn't hold, IMO.
    1200. DDMF.

  5. #385
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    It should be noted that there is a very high chance that we get in a bowl if we have only 5 wins.
    It is an abomination, but unfortunately you are probably correct.

  6. #386
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    i was working and unable to watch the game...keeping up with it on the sports app...


    quit looking with about 5 mins left.... ugh....that end had to be brutal
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  7. #387
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    The current Sagarin ratings predict that Duke has about an 85% chance of winning 6 or more games.

    Based on the current ratings, Duke should be favored (about a 70% chance of winning) vs BC and Virginia Tech and should be an underdog (30-40% chance of winning) vs UNC, Miami, Pitt, and Wake. I am personally less optimistic that Duke pulls off an upset vs UNC, Miami, Pitt or Wake, but Sagarin gives Duke about an 80% chance of winning at least one of these four games.

    If Duke had managed to beat GT in OT, Sagarin would have given Duke a 98% chance of getting to 6 wins.
    But Sagarin doesn't adjust for a team that has very limited depth and is incurring injuries at a very bad rate. I am hopeful, but think that our chances of winning six games are well below 85% at this point.

  8. #388
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    But Sagarin doesn't adjust for a team that has very limited depth and is incurring injuries at a very bad rate. I am hopeful, but think that our chances of winning six games are well below 85% at this point.
    In the end, Sagarin is even more of a SWAG than basketball season dork polls. The dataset is so small, and the difference in team quality so many of those data points that it's nigh impossible to get a really useful model. (this is before the natural variance of the game itself).

    I'd venture we've a losing record against our sagarin prediction over the past few years in the last 8 games of the season.
    1200. DDMF.

  9. #389
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    In the end, Sagarin is even more of a SWAG than basketball season dork polls. The dataset is so small, and the difference in team quality so many of those data points that it's nigh impossible to get a really useful model. (this is before the natural variance of the game itself).

    I'd venture we've a losing record against our sagarin prediction over the past few years in the last 8 games of the season.
    I agree. Before half the games have been played, it's especially bad...

  10. #390
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    In the end, Sagarin is even more of a SWAG than basketball season dork polls. The dataset is so small, and the difference in team quality so many of those data points that it's nigh impossible to get a really useful model. (this is before the natural variance of the game itself).

    I'd venture we've a losing record against our sagarin prediction over the past few years in the last 8 games of the season.
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I agree. Before half the games have been played, it's especially bad...
    You both make excellent points about the limitations of Sagarin's method, especially at this time of the year. Case in point: Sagarin's "predictor" rating would suggest that Duke would be a 3 point underdog vs UNC. In reality, it appears that Duke is a 7 point underdog at the moment.

    If Duke is really 4 points "worse" than its current Sagarin rating suggests, Duke would still have about a 75% chance of winning 6 or more games. That still seems a bit optimistic to me. A pessimistic view of Duke's chances (30% vs UNC, 50% vs BC/Va Tech, 20% vs Miami/Pitt, and 10% vs Wake) still gives Duke a 60% chance of reaching 6 wins.

    Of course, the best way to end this discussion would be for Duke to beat UNC this weekend!

  11. #391
    Quote Originally Posted by HoKogan View Post
    ... I think Duke is better than BC and VT is now currently ...
    Duke: 43 SRS; 69 Sagarin; 75 Massey = 62.3 avg
    BC: 102 SRS; 105 Sagarin; 90 Massey = 99 avg
    VT: 111 SRS; 104 Sagarin; 92 Massey = 102.3 avg

  12. #392
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Duke: 43 SRS; 69 Sagarin; 75 Massey = 62.3 avg
    BC: 102 SRS; 105 Sagarin; 90 Massey = 99 avg
    VT: 111 SRS; 104 Sagarin; 92 Massey = 102.3 avg
    Or you can look at the Massey Composite of 50-some different dork polls: Duke 63, BC 105, VT 110

    -jk

  13. #393
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    greater New Orleans area
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Giving said poster the benefit of the doubt, I assume they mean simply from a scheduling perspective of looking behind and looking ahead. We have the meat of our schedule in front of us, and losing to GaTech means we have to find an additional win ahead of us.
    Got it...Thanks Mtn. I think a lot depends on managing the emotional part of the game this year. Duke has the talent to compete with just about anyone on their schedule, injuries aside. Injuries happen to every team throughout the season, an unfortunate reality of FB.

  14. #394
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    Got it...Thanks Mtn. I think a lot depends on managing the emotional part of the game this year. Duke has the talent to compete with just about anyone on their schedule, injuries aside. Injuries happen to every team throughout the season, an unfortunate reality of FB.
    I disagree 100%. Duke has a significant talent deficit (and especially in terms of depth) in the ACC and it has to play almost perfectly to win itís conference games.

  15. #395
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    I disagree 100%. Duke has a significant talent deficit (and especially in terms of depth) in the ACC and it has to play almost perfectly to win itís conference games.
    Depth is always the issue for Duke. Duke got an ACC win and may get another but winning more than 2 games will be a big achievement as the season goes on and injuries start to increase. Folks here mainly wanted Duke to be competitive in games. So far they have been that - but winning games is a different story. UNC will not look past Duke this week. Duke will need to play their A game to stay close.

  16. #396
    Join Date
    Mar 2022
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    This is a different game if not for Robertson's lack of discipline. His late hit after the whistle ended a great first half drive. That likely cost us points and definitely took the wind out of our sails. He then had two offensive PI penalties, both drive killers. In fact the second one in OT nullified a likely game winning play that would have given us a first and goal on the GT 5 yard line. Without that last PI we are likely talking about Duke's miraculous comeback win.

    That being said, the reason we needed a miraculous comeback was because we couldn't control the line of scrimmage.
    Yeah, but without him COMMITTING that PI the play doesn't go for a first down.

  17. #397
    Join Date
    Mar 2022
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Giving said poster the benefit of the doubt, I assume they mean simply from a scheduling perspective of looking behind and looking ahead. We have the meat of our schedule in front of us, and losing to GaTech means we have to find an additional win ahead of us.
    Exactly. We have to win 6 games for certain bowl eligibility. 5 probably does it given Duke's astronomically high APR score.

    But we have to win 1 more game. BC and GT were the two weakest conf games on the schedule.

  18. #398
    Quote Originally Posted by HayYou View Post
    Exactly. We have to win 6 games for certain bowl eligibility. 5 probably does it given Duke's astronomically high APR score.

    But we have to win 1 more game. BC and GT were the two weakest conf games on the schedule.
    VT is in worse shape than GT by far, at least currently.

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