Dukies in the NBA: 2022-23

[Phredd3]

I realize that it's really hard to win a title and that #1 guys haven't done it much recently, but thinking back to those close games when you have a player like Zion or Paolo (who have proven to be hard to guard at the next level) isn't it fair to wonder why they weren't able to get the ball in a position to contribute even more? I've watched most of the minutes that Poalo has played in the NBA (thank you free NBA league pass trial) and he looks almost unstoppable in transition or in the low block. If he's doing this against pros, shouldn't he have at least been able to foul out Brady Manek? Maybe it's not a black mark, but I think it's fair to wonder what might have been especially amongst two Duke fans marveling at how Paolo is dominating so far.

Defenses are completely different in college. Generally, there is only one uber-offensive player on the floor at a time, maybe two, so defenses can really give those guys a lot of attention and prevent them from operating in space. In the NBA, there are only a few players who are NOT a threat from at least 15', and many who are threats from 30'. That gives those uber-offense players a lot more room to operate and just do their thing one-on-one. We all recall that spacing was especially a problem with the Zion team, when we had almost no threats from beyond the arc. Last year, we at least had AJ as a nearly-automatic, but teams still felt fairly comfortable leaving both Keels and Roach with a cushion, and Mark rarely took his defender away from the bucket. That left a lot of freedom for defenses to swarm Paolo, slack you just can't give in the NBA.

Completely different games.

Also, we're effectively considering just one side of the floor. The Orlando Magic are 0-5. That's with Paolo doing great things. I'm sure K should have constructed schemes for Paolo to do similar things in college, as long as you don't care about winning the games. Comparing Paolo's individual NBA stats with a team's record of winning - and even worse, with a team winning a specific, high-variance tournament game - is like trying to compare the strength of a single wire with the strength of a suspension bridge. The wire might fail and cause the bridge to fall, but it ain't holding the bridge up on its own.

[sagegrouse]

A national title can never be assumed, even with an historically talented roster. Always always always bet the field over any one team.

I do think that a three year stretch where we had Zion, RJ, Jayson Tatum, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, Gary Trent Jr, Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard, but went to zero Final Fours isn’t a great look, even considering that many of those guys weren’t here at the same time. That’s more talent than many teams have assembled in their *entire history* - yea the NCAAT is random by nature and injuries, whatnot, whatever - but still…. I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a “black mark” on K or anyone else, but it was disappointing.

I agree, and we are all whistling past the graveyard. Winning a championship with a mostly freshman team is really difficult, no matter the talent. But what choice do we as fans have except to cheer loudly and hope for the best.

[phaedrus]

Defenses are completely different in college. Generally, there is only one uber-offensive player on the floor at a time, maybe two, so defenses can really give those guys a lot of attention and prevent them from operating in space. In the NBA, there are only a few players who are NOT a threat from at least 15', and many who are threats from 30'. That gives those uber-offense players a lot more room to operate and just do their thing one-on-one. We all recall that spacing was especially a problem with the Zion team, when we had almost no threats from beyond the arc. Last year, we at least had AJ as a nearly-automatic, but teams still felt fairly comfortable leaving both Keels and Roach with a cushion, and Mark rarely took his defender away from the bucket. That left a lot of freedom for defenses to swarm Paolo, slack you just can't give in the NBA.

Completely different games.

Also, we're effectively considering just one side of the floor. The Orlando Magic are 0-5. That's with Paolo doing great things. I'm sure K should have constructed schemes for Paolo to do similar things in college, as long as you don't care about winning the games. Comparing Paolo's individual NBA stats with a team's record of winning - and even worse, with a team winning a specific, high-variance tournament game - is like trying to compare the strength of a single wire with the strength of a suspension bridge. The wire might fail and cause the bridge to fall, but it ain't holding the bridge up on its own.

Also, Paolo's doing great, but he's shooting 44.8% from the field. Rather than being unstoppable, he has license to be relatively inefficient because he's on a bad team. Paolo's college offense (and Duke's offense) were far more efficient than Paolo's NBA offense (and Orlando's offense) - obviously against much worse competition.

[JasonEvans]

The Orlando Magic are 0-5. That's with Paolo doing great things.

I bet the Magic's record would be better playing against NCAA teams versus NBA ones

[Steven43]

In 2019 Zion Williamson won the Naismith Karl Malone PF award and the same year, RJ Barrett won the same award for SG. So that team was very talented to say the least. I will always say that Zion didn't have the ball in his hands enough and RJ had it too much of the time, but I can't argue with the GOAT.
This season Whitehead is on the Dr. J watch list for SF (Wendell Moore won in 2022), Roach is on the Cousy award watch list for PG, Proctor is on the Jerry West watch list for SG and Filipowski is on the Karl Malone watch for PF. Lively has not been named on the Kareem Abdul Jabaar watch list. These awards were first given out in 2015. Otherwise, there would have been plenty of Duke winners like; Christian Laettner, Grant Hill, Bobby Hurley Shane "who's your Daddy" Battier and several more.

Hey, what happened to the NFL thread masquerading as an NBA thread?? Lol.

I don’t know if it was you or jk or someone else who mentioned that I definitely would NOT like the color burgundy, even though my favorite color is red. I had no idea what was meant by that until today when I was playing tennis 🎾 a short while ago (though the ankle still hurts) and it suddenly came to me that burgundy is the color of the Washington Redskins. Uh, I mean the Washington Commanders. 🙄

And you’re right: I hate burgundy! But boy that rivalry was incredible when I was growing up in the 70’s and 80’s and 90’s. Cowboys vs Redskins was as intense as it gets. I absolutely loved those games even though I was nervous every time.

I had several friends who lived in Washington DC who would always refer to it as “Dallas Week” whenever the Cowboys were coming to RFK. Washington fans made a huge deal about trying to beat the Cowboys (and vice versa), who were easily their most hated, yet most respected, rival. They looked forward to that game all year long. As so did I.

[elvis14]

Had a fellow Duke grad ask me yesterday if Paolo's early dominance combined with Zion's dominance (when healthy) made it more disappointing that their Duke teams didn't win it all? Further, does it put a black mark on Coach K's coaching during those seasons? I thought I would ask the question here.

For me, it's hard to see those guys score on NBA level talent and know that each lost very close tournament games when they were being guarded by guys that are not near that level. It made me think of how Elton had a hard time against that UConn team in the National Championship. Could we have done more to get them the ball in a position to take over the game? I don't know.

Yes and Yes, particularly last year losing the rivalry and Zion's year. It's like the old joke about Saint Dean being the only person to ever hold MJ to less than 20 a game...

I somewhat agree with you on this, particularly about the awesomeness of Duke going to the Final Four in Coach K’s final season. But I also think Duke should have won the national championship in both of those seasons.

And I do think some of the coaching decisions were less than ideal, particularly in Zion’s season.

Although I see it's not a popular opinion, I agree with Steven43. K was in love with RJ having the ball in his hands...a lot. I would have had the ball going to Zion every time down the floor.

[DoubleBlue]

Ingram is out for at least the next three games starting tonight at Phoenix while in concussion protocol.
Zion in uncertain for tonight, working his way back from a lower back contusion.
https://www.nola.com/sports/pelicans...a64862840.html

[SOB13]

Yes and Yes, particularly last year losing the rivalry and Zion's year. It's like the old joke about Saint Dean being the only person to ever hold MJ to less than 20 a game...



Although I see it's not a popular opinion, I agree with Steven43. K was in love with RJ having the ball in his hands...a lot. I would have had the ball going to Zion every time down the floor.

I’m not sure I have ever seen Zion not score when he gets the ball posting up on the left block.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I’m not sure I have ever seen Zion not score when he gets the ball posting up on the left block.

Certainly more often than not.

[bundabergdevil]

I’m not sure I have ever seen Zion not score when he gets the ball posting up on the left block.

Sounds like my uncle when he takes a date to the Golden Corral.

[JasonEvans]

Goodness gracious… Paolo doing this is absurd. A 6-10, rock solid dude shouldn’t be able to do this. He’s breaking the game.

https://twitter.com/orlandomagic/sta...779013120?s=21

Looks like Orlando got win #1 too.

Paolo with 21, 12, and 7 on efficient shooting. Whew!!

[JasonEvans]

And here is a little Duke-to-Duke connection. Paolo with guard-like handle and passing to Carter for the flush!

https://twitter.com/orlandomagic/sta...217022977?s=21

[SouthernDukie]

And here is a little Duke-to-Duke connection. Paolo with guard-like handle and passing to Carter for the flush!

https://twitter.com/orlandomagic/sta...217022977?s=21

And another Dukie abused in the process - Plumlee.

[gep]

Goodness gracious… Paolo doing this is absurd. A 6-10, rock solid dude shouldn’t be able to do this. He’s breaking the game.

https://twitter.com/orlandomagic/sta...779013120?s=21

Looks like Orlando got win #1 too.

Paolo with 21, 12, and 7 on efficient shooting. Whew!!

And here is a little Duke-to-Duke connection. Paolo with guard-like handle and passing to Carter for the flush!

https://twitter.com/orlandomagic/sta...217022977?s=21

And another Dukie abused in the process - Plumlee.

In any case, Coach K must be loving this... his guys, after all

[Steven43]

And here is a little Duke-to-Duke connection. Paolo with guard-like handle and passing to Carter for the flush!

https://twitter.com/orlandomagic/sta...217022977?s=21

My goodness, PB has all the talent in the world! I absolutely LOVE his game.

He has all the tools necessary to eventually be All-NBA First Team, and even MVP.

[Alan_Wilson]

Ingram is out for at least the next three games starting tonight at Phoenix while in concussion protocol.
Zion in uncertain for tonight, working his way back from a lower back contusion.
https://www.nola.com/sports/pelicans...a64862840.html

Pels have some bad luck with injuries. Still they stole a game from the Mavs without Zion and Ingram and kept it competitive against the Suns tonight. They're a well balanced roster.

[DukieInBrasil]

Can we talk about how Jack White has actually played in the NBA now, and not just made a roster? He's played in 2 games, and has yet to score, but did grab a rebound, so he has recorded a stat in the NBA!!!
Also, it appears that Cam Reddish has been unable to overcome his wildly erratic play, doing precisely what another poster and I had hoped he would overcome: recording another 2 pt game, after his opening night 22 pt performance.
Tre Jones is starting and averaging 13.5 ppg and 4.8 apg! He's not shooting particularly well, and his a/t is much lower than his vaunted brother, but he's starting to make a name for himself. Also, after being a real weak-spot for him last year, he's shooting 36% 3FG so far.
Banchero and Tatum with big games last night, hard to say which was more impressive, JT's 32/7/4 or PB's 21/12/7. JT shot the ball slightly more efficiently, mostly b/c of FTs, and he also added a steal and a block.

[ice-9]

Yes and Yes, particularly last year losing the rivalry and Zion's year. It's like the old joke about Saint Dean being the only person to ever hold MJ to less than 20 a game...



Although I see it's not a popular opinion, I agree with Steven43. K was in love with RJ having the ball in his hands...a lot. I would have had the ball going to Zion every time down the floor.

So what, RJ becomes a spot shooter?

No, RJ needs to have the ball in his hands to be effective, Zion doesn't. While RJ isn't as great as his prep ranking indicated, it was the most optimal strategy given the group.

Where I do disagree with Coach K is that Zion should have controlled the last possession against Michigan State.

[Steven43]

So what, RJ becomes a spot shooter?

No, RJ needs to have the ball in his hands to be effective, Zion doesn't. While RJ isn't as great as his prep ranking indicated, it was the most optimal strategy given the group.

Where I do disagree with Coach K is that Zion should have controlled the last possession against Michigan State.

I don’t think RJ becomes a “spot shooter” as you say. No, he simply plays within the flow of the offense and takes shots that are actually good shots rather than just throwing the ball at the basket from improbable positions in the hope and prayer that it might go in — like he did about 10 times every single game.

Honestly, I think RJ had the worst shot selection I’ve ever seen from a Duke starter, particularly one who shoots so much.

[DukieInBrasil]

I don’t think RJ becomes a “spot shooter” as you say. No, he simply plays within the flow of the offense and takes shots that are actually good shots rather than just throwing the ball at the basket from improbable positions in the hope and prayer that it might go in — like he did about 10 times every single game.

Honestly, I think RJ had the worst shot selection I’ve ever seen from a Duke starter, particularly one who shoots so much.

maybe some slight exaggeration in there, but in general, yes, RJ's shot selection was terrible, and he didn't really grow or change as a player over the course of the season, and K's insistence that RJ do whatever ended up hurting the team.