Originally Posted by
flyingdutchdevil
The World Cup, unlike the NCAA Tournament or even the Euro Cup, is a fairly predictable tournament. Not in terms of the group stage or the semi-finalists, but rather who is going to win it all. There really hasn't been a surprise team who's won it all since...ummm...France in 1998? And even then, France was the host and France had incredible talent.
But the tournament favorites are often the same: Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain. You can add a few teams depending on the World Cup (like adding England this year) or remove a few teams (like Italy, who failed to qualify). But for the most part, the best teams stay the same. Hell, look at the top 11 teams for Vegas odds:
Brazil +400
France +600
England +700
Argentina +700
Spain +800
Germany +1000
Portugal +1200
Netherlands +1200
Belgium +1400
Denmark +2800
Croatia +5000
The delta between the 9th and 10th best team (Belgium and Denmark) is quite substantial; the delta between the 10th and 11th best teams (Denmark and Croatia) is huge.
So what does this mean? Well, despite there being 32 teams competing for the World Cup, I'd be willing to stake my house that one of the following 6 teams will win the WC:
-Brazil
-Argentina
-Germany
-Spain
-France
-England
Yeah...not very original. But this is the way of the World Cup. Since 1954, every World Cup has been won by Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, France, England, and Italy. Italy cannot win this World Cup. The other 6 teams are legit, and this year is no exception. The other 3 teams that have decent odds - Portugal, the Netherlands, and Belgium - are all talented but more flawed than the "Big 6". But they are Dark Horses and despite zero World Cup titles between those 3 teams, Spain did break the trend in 2010 of only Brazil, Argentine, Germany, France, Italy, and England winning the WC in the last ~70 years. Could it happen again this year with a brand new World Cup winner? Possibly, but unlikely. Belgium is aging, the Netherlands don't have an attacking force, and Portugal needs to feature Ronaldo which makes the team so much worse.
The World Cup is exciting, but sadly one of those 6 teams will win it.
So, sometime in the next 40 days, I'll be giving a run down on each of those 9 teams (6 Favorites + 3 Dark Horses).