FB: Duke 38, Virginia 17

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The only reason that Duke Army wasn't a swamp like UNC/VT and ND/NCSU is because of the new field and its ability to drain water. Supposedly this was the game that cost Duke's commitment from Jack Sears, citing low turnout or whatever. Turns out Duke didn't miss out on anything of note there.

Neither did Sears, to be fair.

[HoKogan]

Neither did Sears, to be fair.

The guy who got the job in his place when he decommitted is playing in the pros

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The guy who got the job in his place when he decommitted is playing in the pros

Wow. I had forgotten how long ago that was. Time's fun when you're catching flies.

[HoKogan]

Wow. I had forgotten how long ago that was. Time's fun when you're catching flies.

I'm pretty sure thats the timeline. Sirk would have finished his eligibility in 2016 if not for the leg injury. Jones I think was offered a preferred walk-on spot that was later upgraded to a scholarship when Sears walked. Sears instead decided to wait behind Sam Darnold at USC, then with all the Todd Helton mess decided to bolt for Boise St, and I think he didn't do particularly well there.

Why do I know these things...

[Bob Green]

Jim Sumner article:

https://jimsumner.substack.com/p/duke-opens-acc-play

[dukelifer]

Looks like rain and wind on Sat. Not good for a passing game and attendance. Geez.

[budwom]

looking at the Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service for Durham, we currently have a low reliability look at things, not at all clear what Saturday will look like, but some amount of rain seems inevitable...should know more in a day or two

[Papa John]

I went to the Notre Dame-State game in Raleigh that day. We made it to halftime. Hurricane Matthew was not in remnants yet. Neither team could do anything.

And yet, as I recall, that was a game where Brian Kelly insisted that ND would throw the football. The fan base was apoplectic at the extraordinary arrogance and stupidity of this stubborn decision, which eventually resulted in many turnovers and a loss en route to a 4-8 season. Incidentally, it was this disastrous season that prompted Kelly to overhaul the staff, which included the hiring of Mike Elko as DC in 2017.

[CameronBornAndBred]

looking at the Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service for Durham, we currently have a low reliability look at things, not at all clear what Saturday will look like, but some amount of rain seems inevitable...should know more in a day or two

Saturday is going to be "almost an all-day rain," and showers will continue Sunday.

The Triangle and communities to the east could experience pockets of heavy rain, with up to 4 inches possible, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes all during day on Saturday with rain lingering into Sunday.

https://www.wral.com/heavy-rain-isol...kend/20491890/

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Admittedly my memory is not what it used to be, but does Riley Leonard throw the ball deep as well as if not better than any of our quarterbacks over the last few decades? It’s ridiculous he doesn’t have more touchdown passes which drags down his rating. But I will take a 45 yard pass that ends on the five yard line all day. Also kudos to his receivers who are gaining long yards after the catch.

After last week’s game several on here were highly critical of our team. I was impressed with their tenacity. Having seen part of Miami’s and UNCCH’s games, both totally undisciplined teams, we can win the Coastal! Now we need the weather to cooperate this Saturday.

[budwom]

While the latest NWS forecast isn't very specific, the 3pm "forecast discussion" from the Rolly NWS says it is likely we will see heavy rain and some flash flooding in the Durham area between friday night and Sunday morning. Here we go again. (not hurricane winds, mind you, but plenty of precip).

[HayYou]

Admittedly my memory is not what it used to be, but does Riley Leonard throw the ball deep as well as if not better than any of our quarterbacks over the last few decades? It’s ridiculous he doesn’t have more touchdown passes which drags down his rating. But I will take a 45 yard pass that ends on the five yard line all day. Also kudos to his receivers who are gaining long yards after the catch.

After last week’s game several on here were highly critical of our team. I was impressed with their tenacity. Having seen part of Miami’s and UNCCH’s games, both totally undisciplined teams, we can win the Coastal! Now we need the weather to cooperate this Saturday.

Throwing long passes is largely dependent on the OL giving you time to wait for plays to develop down field. Which is dicey at Duke. Further, you need a big tall guy who is pretty fast/athletic at WR to get open. Or you need a small guy who is absurdly fast to get open down field.

[dukelifer]

looking at the Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service for Durham, we currently have a low reliability look at things, not at all clear what Saturday will look like, but some amount of rain seems inevitable...should know more in a day or two

100% chance of rain right now and likely gusty winds

[DU82]

Admittedly my memory is not what it used to be, but does Riley Leonard throw the ball deep as well as if not better than any of our quarterbacks over the last few decades? It’s ridiculous he doesn’t have more touchdown passes which drags down his rating. But I will take a 45 yard pass that ends on the five yard line all day. Also kudos to his receivers who are gaining long yards after the catch.

After last week’s game several on here were highly critical of our team. I was impressed with their tenacity. Having seen part of Miami’s and UNCCH’s games, both totally undisciplined teams, we can win the Coastal! Now we need the weather to cooperate this Saturday.

What we’ve noticed (anecdotally) is that Riley is much better that our previous QBs in hitting receivers in stride, given them a chance to gain yards after the catch. That fits with your observations, it seems.

I know that’s a stat that’s measured, but I have no ideas where to find it to confirm this.

WRAL’s 5pm report says 3-5” of rain, 35MPH winds. The State-Clemson game is in the path, but as of now they expect the worst to be past Clemson by game time. Still should be wet/windy.

[CameronDuke]

I’m wondering the realistic chances this game gets rained out Saturday night …

[CameronBornAndBred]

I’m wondering the realistic chances this game gets rained out Saturday night …

The game will get played. It might only be in front of 100 people, but it will be played.

[BigWayne]

I’m wondering the realistic chances this game gets rained out Saturday night …

I believe the only impact to Durham will be rain. Could be a lot of rain. You might see a delay due to lightning if we get unlucky.

[heyman25]

https://www.wral.com/hurricane-ian-n...lina/20491890/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK5G8fPmWeA

great Beatles track

[Dr. Maturin]

What we’ve noticed (anecdotally) is that Riley is much better that our previous QBs in hitting receivers in stride, given them a chance to gain yards after the catch. That fits with your observations, it seems.

I've come to believe that the key stat for QBs is yards per attempt. Somewhat like points per possession in basketball. Completion percentage can be enhanced by a lot of short throws, and yards per game is dependent on the number of attempts, but it's hard to fake a good yards per attempt figure.

Thad Lewis averaged 7.4 YPA in 2009, the best in the Cut/Elko eras. Renfree and Boone topped out at 7.0 YPA in their best years. Daniel Jones averaged 6.8 as a junior. Interestingly, Gunnar Holmberg passed for 7.3 YPA last year, which is pretty impressive given the circumstances.

Riley Leonard is currently averaging 10.4 YPA. That's good for 6th in all of FBS. There are caveats, of course - he hasn't played the toughest schedule and it's just a 4-game sample. But he's been impressive. Even factoring in a healthy regression to the mean, he's in line for a very good season.

[Dr. Maturin]

Moving on to the game, this is an important one. Man, am I glad to see the last of Bronco Mendenhall. The Duke/UVA series flipped completely when he took over. I don't know what it was, but Cut's offenses never had a chance against Bronco's defenses. Cut won 6 of his first 7 against the Hoos, then lost his last 7, including 6 in a row against Bronco.

It's time to reset this series and get ACC play started the right way.