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  1. #341
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Worse shape than we thought when? At the end of last season? At the beginning of this season? Right before kickoff on Saturday?

    I stated my benchmark for a successful season before the games started, and was just looking to be more competitive in our losses. Last year we got boatraced almost every single game. It was embarrassing.

    This year, we only have one reference point for "competitive losses" so far, which is excellent. And with just over a minute to go we were trying to tie the game up. Can't as for more competitive in a loss.

    Obviously W's and L's are important. But this team may not win another game this season and I wouldn't necessarily write it off as a huge disappointment if we can keep every game close.
    Yes. I'm happy with the product on the field. I'm happy with 3 wins, but I'm far from assuming 3 wins over bad football clubs means anything WRT how many wins we will pick up in ACC play.

    A win over a mediocre temple team, A&T, and a NW team who just lost again the other day (to miami OH) does not instill confidence in me that we have "sure thing" wins over any of the bad ACC teams.

    I would be disappointed if we are uncompetitive in any of these ACC games, but I would also not be surprised if we didn't win more than 2. But hey, as others have said, 5-7 probably goes bowling...so sign me up.
    1200. DDMF.

  2. #342
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Yes. I'm happy with the product on the field. I'm happy with 3 wins, but I'm far from assuming 3 wins over bad football clubs means anything WRT how many wins we will pick up in ACC play.

    A win over a mediocre temple team, A&T, and a NW team who just lost again the other day (to miami OH) does not instill confidence in me that we have "sure thing" wins over any of the bad ACC teams.

    I would be disappointed if we are uncompetitive in any of these ACC games, but I would also not be surprised if we didn't win more than 2. But hey, as others have said, 5-7 probably goes bowling...so sign me up.
    I mean, Georgia Tech and BC both look to be games we could win. ESPN "matchup indicator (?)" suggests we "should" win 4 games (add in VaTech and UVA). That would total up to 7 wins, and I don't think there's a Duke football fan alive who would be disappointed with that result.

    But, more realistically, I imagine we don't carry all four games. But if we can win two AND keep close with Wake/Pitt, maybe steal a win against UNC - that's a successful season in my book.

  3. #343
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I agree. I feel pretty confident that Duke will be net beneficiaries of the portal. The lads seem to like the way Elko is leading the program.
    Agreed. This is looking like a fun program to play for, I think we can get some wins in the transfer portal (and in the 2023 recruiting class).

  4. #344
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I'm far from assuming 3 wins over bad football clubs means anything WRT how many wins we will pick up in ACC play.
    Well, several of our ACC opponents qualify as "bad football clubs", so I think the results so far are meaningful for how we will do in ACC play. BC and Georgia Tech are right there with Northwestern and Colorado as the worst of the power conference teams. I understand your point about being cautious and not assuming anything is a sure win, but we really should win those 2 games based on what's happened this season so far.

  5. #345
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Well, several of our ACC opponents qualify as "bad football clubs", so I think the results so far are meaningful for how we will do in ACC play. BC and Georgia Tech are right there with Northwestern and Colorado as the worst of the power conference teams. I understand your point about being cautious and not assuming anything is a sure win, but we really should win those 2 games based on what's happened this season so far.
    The thing is, the NW game is doing a lot of heavy lifting. They had a 75% chance of winning late in the 4th. So which outcome are we going to see vs those BC and GT teams? The one that blitzed NW to 21-0, or the one that failed to turn a 3 score lead to an easy win against a bad team?

    There's always room for improvement. I just don't see any of these games as sure things righ tnow based on our play. If we come out and play well against UVA, and if I dare to be optimistic, win, It will go a LONG way in my confidence in those other games.
    1200. DDMF.

  6. #346
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    The thing is, the NW game is doing a lot of heavy lifting. They had a 75% chance of winning late in the 4th. So which outcome are we going to see vs those BC and GT teams? The one that blitzed NW to 21-0, or the one that failed to turn a 3 score lead to an easy win against a bad team?

    There's always room for improvement. I just don't see any of these games as sure things righ tnow based on our play. If we come out and play well against UVA, and if I dare to be optimistic, win, It will go a LONG way in my confidence in those other games.
    yeah, I love the new staff and program look, but you have to have a really short memory if you think the next two games are going to be easy. We're one point favorites vs UVA for a reason.

  7. #347
    It should be noted that football teams are not static over the course of a season, so terrible teams might figure stuff out to rebound and right the ship. Good teams can have crucial injuries, or other teams figure out how to scheme against them and they never are able to adjust.

    Most people can agree that last year's Duke team was a bad team by most measures, and yet they were a dropped pass from starting the season 4-0 with their next game against a very beatable GT. In fact Duke had the lead late in the game, only to choke it away. The team never recovered and I don't think they were remotely competitive in any of their remaining games.

    I think this team is better than that one, despite carrying over a large amount of personnel from that year. The 2008 Cutcliffe team that went 4-8 and had shots to beat NW, VT and Wake and hung with UNC and NCST for most of the game was largely comprised of players from the 2007 Roof team that won 1 game. So clearly a change in staff can yield a big difference. The KU game definitely had the feel of a game that "Old Duke" would have given up when it was 21-10.

    This is still a team that is recovering from 2 really terrible seasons, and if they have a couple of plays go against them, thats the season. 6+ wins are definitely on the table, and we'll have to see if this Duke team can pull one out of their behinds and upset a team like Pitt or Wake. I think its key to remember that, promising start notwithstanding, they could still finish 4-8 or 3-9 if a few things don't go their way. The margin of error is slim.
    Last edited by HoKogan; 09-26-2022 at 04:28 PM.

  8. #348
    Quote Originally Posted by HoKogan View Post
    It should be noted that football teams are not static over the course of a season, so terrible teams might figure stuff out to rebound and right the ship. Good teams can have crucial injuries, or other teams figure out how to scheme against them and they never are able to adjust.

    Most people can agree that last year's Duke team was a bad team by most measures, and yet they were a dropped pass from starting the season 4-0 with their next game against a very beatable GT. In fact Duke had the lead late in the game, only to choke it away. The team never recovered and I don't think they were remotely competitive in any of their remaining games.

    I think this team is better than that one, despite carrying over a large amount of personnel from that year. The 2008 Cutcliffe team that went 4-8 and had shots to beat NW, VT and Wake and hung with UNC and NCST for most of the game was largely comprised of players from the 2007 Roof team that won 1 game. So clearly a change in staff can yield a big difference. The KU game definitely had the feel of a game that "Old Duke" would have given up when it was 21-10.

    This is still a team that is recovering from 2 really terrible seasons, and if they have a couple of plays go against them, thats the season. 4 wins are definitely on the table, and we'll have to see if this Duke team can pull one out of their behinds and upset a team like Pitt or Wake. I think its key to remember that, promising start notwithstanding, they could still finish 4-8 or 3-9 if a few things don't go their way. The margin of error is slim.
    I feel like celebrating each win is more fruitful at this point than trying to attach an expectation of wins at this point.

    Maybe I'm overloaded on Zen this afternoon.

  9. #349
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I feel like celebrating each win is more fruitful at this point than trying to attach an expectation of wins at this point.

    Maybe I'm overloaded on Zen this afternoon.
    I think thats the healthy thing. It took Cutcliffe 4 seasons to get to .500 and a bowl. Things are not as dire because the program is not starting from rock bottom. There is talent on the team.

  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by HoKogan View Post
    I think thats the healthy thing. It took Cutcliffe 4 seasons to get to .500 and a bowl. Things are not as dire because the program is not starting from rock bottom. There is talent on the team.
    Exactly true. Coach Cut left the team in a relatively bad spot, but nothing remotely like where he found it.

  11. #351
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Exactly true. Coach Cut left the team in a relatively bad spot, but nothing remotely like where he found it.
    yep. and he should ABSOLUTELY be celebrated for that, even if it was time to move on.
    1200. DDMF.

  12. #352
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    The thing is, the NW game is doing a lot of heavy lifting. They had a 75% chance of winning late in the 4th. So which outcome are we going to see vs those BC and GT teams? The one that blitzed NW to 21-0, or the one that failed to turn a 3 score lead to an easy win against a bad team?

    There's always room for improvement. I just don't see any of these games as sure things righ tnow based on our play. If we come out and play well against UVA, and if I dare to be optimistic, win, It will go a LONG way in my confidence in those other games.
    I think optimism is warranted. Kansas is now essentially ranked 26th, and we played them well enough that we had a chance at the end in front of a really good crowd during an away game. We're far from perfect, and there's lots that could have been better about how we played, but I like the way we are looking much better than some other ACC teams right now, UVA included.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #353
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    yep. and he should ABSOLUTELY be celebrated for that, even if it was time to move on.
    As a big Cut fan for a while, I have a bit harsher view now. He was paid to do what he did...and he did amazing things. But it was one, maybe two years past time to move on IMO. He should have known that.

    And the regression of Quint Harris was also baffling. Few liked to admit that he had "lost the room" his final 2,3 years...but the renewed attitude by largely the same group of players makes that perfectly clear now...if it wasn't before (and it was).

    On the flip side...the renewed spirit of the team speaks very well for Elko....

  14. #354
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    the differences between P5 teams are small. Exclude the teams that are playing a bunch of NFL-level guys, and any individual game is very difficult to accurately predict. Even in games that stretch into 3 touchdown wins, the difference is often determined by a handful of the game’s 150 plays.

    this would not be the case if any P5 team played any NFL team or any high school team. In those hypothetical games, any fan could watch for a minute with the sound off and know which team is going to win.

    IMHO, we overdramatize many of these small differences by calling college teams bad; we might enjoy this “narcissism of small difference,” but it generally doesn’t fit—and not just when we see the upsets that routinely occur in college football.

    This is even more true in the much smaller and more controlled NFL, where the “bad” teams often upset the best teams, and the worst NFL team would crush Alabama or Georgia.

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