Originally Posted by
scottdude8
I see the end of OAD as nothing but a good thing all around.
From my point of view it's the right thing morally: imposing a year in college on young adults who are choosing to begin their pro careers is, IMHO, overly paternalistic and condescending. The G-League Ignite and other routes like OTE have been a step towards alleviating this, but they're half measures. In a perfect world, I would love to see high schoolers able to "test the waters" similarly to college players to make the most informed choice possible, but who knows whether that's in the cards. Yes, it would add additional uncertainty to creating college rosters, but that's already so high with the transfer portal I see that as a minimal downside.
Meanwhile, while the lack of OAD prospects means there will be less raw talent at the college level, it also means we're more likely to get multi year players, which most of us have craved. Yes, it will make recruiting more challenging in terms of identifying players who aren't going to go straight to the NBA to put your resources into, but recruiting was already challenging. I think having more older, developing players will distinguish NCAA basketball as something distinct from just the NBA minor leagues, which will take some getting used to but I think be a net positive in the long haul.
Two addition points to make here. First, I think NIL will make this transition less abrupt than we might have otherwise anticipated. Before NIL, high schoolers were going straight to the NBA and getting picked in the second round. With NIL, going to a high profile school for a year or two would make more sense on multiple fronts... so I think the players who we see going straight from high school to the draft will be primarily first round locks. Second, this could lead to further development of the G-League as a robust minor league, with teams investing in younger players expecting them to play in the G-League for a year or two. Players should have every right to make this decision, just like high school baseball players who get drafted in the first round, get huge signing bonuses, and then play in the minors for multiple years. Players who have NBA-ready games may go to the draft and develop in the G-League, while players who either don't have NBA-style games (i.e., smaller PGs or traditional bigs) or need time to develop into NBA prospects might go the college route.
It would take some getting used to, and not having Zion's and Paolo's will be disappointing, but I think this change would be a net positive on all fronts.