Duke Softball 2023

[loran16]

Another double, after wright didn’t get a clear strike 3 call. Bama is driving the ball despite it being low, and duke trails 2-0

[chrishoke]

We are getting crushed 5-0. Pitching change.

[loran16]

Cassidy curd in again to stem the bleeding…and immediately almost hits a batter.

[DoubleBlue]

Home run by Torres makes it 5-2 Alabama in B4. First HR of the year for Duke.

[chrishoke]

Another HR. 5-3 in the top of the 6th.

[AGDukesky]

Another HR. 5-3

Curd also did a great job getting out of a jam in the bottom of the 5th to keep the game within reach.

[loran16]

Curd has been phenomenal but duke is running out of outs. 5-3 deficit with three outs left

[loran16]

A third error - and what could’ve been considered a fourth. Our defense is a problem right now

[loran16]

The announcer praising duke for a sac fly…in the SEVENTH AND FINAL inning, is driving me mad. Duke couldn’t afford a sac fly! That run didn’t matter!

Down to our final out now

[AGDukesky]

The announcer praising duke for a sac fly…in the SEVENTH AND FINAL inning, is driving me mad. Duke couldn’t afford a sac fly! That run didn’t matter!

Down to our final out now

And on a 3-1 pitch. Oh well, the team battled back and made it a game.

[loran16]

Duke loses 5-4. Too little too late

[Phredd3]

The announcer praising duke for a sac fly…in the SEVENTH AND FINAL inning, is driving me mad. Duke couldn’t afford a sac fly! That run didn’t matter!

Down to our final out now

Sac flies are never intentional, anyway, so they aren't praiseworthy. An XBH is always better than a sac fly. It's an odd historical quirk of baseball that sac flies are traditionally considered a positive outcome. They almost never actually are, and when you hit one, it's as praiseworthy as hitting an inside straight in poker: Good for you, but stop doing that.

[chrishoke]

Sac flies are never intentional, anyway, so they aren't praiseworthy. An XBH is always better than a sac fly. It's an odd historical quirk of baseball that sac flies are traditionally considered a positive outcome. They almost never actually are, and when you hit one, it's as praiseworthy as hitting an inside straight in poker: Good for you, but stop doing that.

Sorry, but this is idiotic.

[Phredd3]

Sorry, but this is idiotic.

No need to be sorry as long as you show your work.

[chrishoke]

No need to be sorry as long as you show your work.

Sac fly in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Today sets up a good Duke women's sports day, with ranked games for both Softball and Basketball.

In my Morgan Freeman narrator voice...

"And it was not a good Duke women's sports day."

[Phredd3]

Sac fly in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game.

Buzz, buzz. Sorry, wrong answer. That's the draw to the inside straight. That's entirely why the analogy works. It's a positive outcome for one game (or one hand). It's a negative EV play. The situation is positive, but it is entirely situation dependent and it is driven by luck. In the bottom or the ninth with the score tied, they are effectively a fortunate an accident. When you're in the bottom of the last inning and down by more than one run (as we were), it's a way to lose the game (as we did). Sure, you might luck into a situation where the outcome is positive, but it's still not praiseworthy for the individual batter to make an out. It's a fortunate team situation and nothing more.

[Daddylawman]

Buzz, buzz. Sorry, wrong answer. That's the draw to the inside straight. That's entirely why the analogy works. It's a positive outcome for one game (or one hand). It's a negative EV play. The situation is positive, but it is entirely situation dependent and it is driven by luck. In the bottom or the ninth with the score tied, they are effectively a fortunate an accident. When you're in the bottom of the last inning and down by more than one run (as we were), it's a way to lose the game (as we did). Sure, you might luck into a situation where the outcome is positive, but it's still not praiseworthy for the individual batter to make an out. It's a fortunate team situation and nothing more.

If you are saying it is never good to trade an out for advancing a runner then yu're just wrong. And yes, a hit is better, but when the intent is to hit a fly ball to advamce the runner, it is the hit ​ that is a lucky accident, not the sacrifice fly. Now if you are talking about the particuar situation in the Duke game, that's a different issue given the score and game situation.

[Phredd3]

If you are saying it is never good to trade an out for advancing a runner then yu're just wrong. And yes, a hit is better, but when the intent is to hit a fly ball to advamce the runner, it is the hit ​ that is a lucky accident, not the sacrifice fly. Now if you are talking about the particuar situation in the Duke game, that's a different issue given the score and game situation.

Except that it isn't. Hitters cannot hit sacrifice flies on purpose. They just can't. Granted, that data is from MLB, but that's because there isn't the demand for a similar analysis in softball. I think the conclusion is generalizable. Sac flies can be situationally good, but it's a negative expected value play most of the time AND it's futile to try to hit them. Hit the ball hard and let the chips fall.

Worse, with a runner on third and no outs, you're costing your team runs. In baseball, the EV for a runner on third, no outs is 1.426. With none on and one out, the EV is 0.243. Adding the run scored in, you went from an EV of 1.426 to an EV of 1.243. In other words, in this situation, the sac fly reduced our chances of winning by about 18%. Of course, if that one run is the difference between winning and losing, then yes, it's a "positive" play, but it's positive in exactly the same way that drawing to an inside straight is positive. Hit the ball hard and let the chips fall.

[AGDukesky]

Duke survives the 1st despite two errors. Hope this isn’t an issue all season…