Colorado looks likely to bolt PAC 12 (PAC 9?) tomorrow

[AustinDevil]

CU board met in closed session today; Big 12 schools all meeting tonight; CU board has a public session set tomorrow (required for a conference change vote).

PAC’s inability to finalize a TV deal seems to be a key factor. UO and UDub are not going to like this. More conference instability coming…

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38076854/colorado-discussing-move-pac-12-big-12-sources-say

[LeadingEdge]

Will any Four Corners schools follow suit? Seems like pulling the sweater thread.

The Mountain West will be calling Oregon State and Washington State this evening, I predict.

[AustinDevil]

Will any Four Corners schools follow suit? Seems like pulling the sweater thread.

The Mountain West will be calling Oregon State and Washington State this evening, I predict.

Any *other* 4 Corners schools, of course.

There’s no way Ore State and Wazzu leave before their state flagships do. I don’t think they’d leave Cal & Stanford for the MWC either.

The real calls are from the B1G to UO and UDub. Rumors have been they held off because they didn’t want to put the final knife in the PAC after taking the LA schools. If that happens, do Stanford & Cal get to go or are they just adrift?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The longer the ACC holds fast and makes no moves, the more we get left in the dust.

[lotusland]

The longer the ACC holds fast and makes no moves, the more we get left in the dust.

I think holding fast IS the ACC’s move. Seems more likely that we’ll lose football schools than gain any. I can’t see any possible advantage of having CO join the ACC. CO is a big market but so is NY and Boston and what did that get us us?

[ChillinDuke]

I think holding fast IS the ACC’s move. Seems more likely that we’ll lose football schools than gain any. I can’t see any possible advantage of having CO join the ACC. CO is a big market but so is NY and Boston and what did that get us us?

It got us a chance to prosper as a conference and fight alongside the B1G and SEC. Just because we didn't make anything of our chance doesn't mean it wasn't the right move.

The ACC played its hand poorly in recent years. We will be done soon, I fear.

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

The ACC played its hand poorly in recent years. We will be done soon, I fear.

Well... it sorta depends upon what the Big Ten and SEC want to do. There is an argument that they do not want to destroy the rest of the sport and that even the most lucrative teams from the other P5 conferences don't really move the needle all that much. If the SEC and Big Ten do not want to grow much more, then there is probably a world where the ACC survives. I sorta doubt there will be 5 power conferences -- it seems like it will shrink to 4 -- but the way the GOR keeps teams committed to the ACC for now may end up allowing us to survive while the best of the Pac 12 gets absorbed by the Big 12. The ACC may be -- from a financial standpoint -- the weakest of the new Power 4, but it will be better than being in the mid-majors, which is where some Pac 12 teams will likely find themselves.

UNC, Miami, FSU, and Clemson likely lament the way things have gone, but the rest of the ACC are pretty happy right now, I bet.

[arnie]

Well... it sorta depends upon what the Big Ten and SEC want to do. There is an argument that they do not want to destroy the rest of the sport and that even the most lucrative teams from the other P5 conferences don't really move the needle all that much. If the SEC and Big Ten do not want to grow much more, then there is probably a world where the ACC survives. I sorta doubt there will be 5 power conferences -- it seems like it will shrink to 4 -- but the way the GOR keeps teams committed to the ACC for now may end up allowing us to survive while the best of the Pac 12 gets absorbed by the Big 12. The ACC may be -- from a financial standpoint -- the weakest of the new Power 4, but it will be better than being in the mid-majors, which is where some Pac 12 teams will likely find themselves.

UNC, Miami, FSU, and Clemson likely lament the way things have gone, but the rest of the ACC are pretty happy right now, I bet.

That view on expansion is also held by Paul Finebaum. The self-proclaimed SEC expert tends to understand the inner workings of big time college football.

[budwom]

I think holding fast IS the ACC’s move. Seems more likely that we’ll lose football schools than gain any. I can’t see any possible advantage of having CO join the ACC. CO is a big market but so is NY and Boston and what did that get us us?

yeah, the ACC doesn't have any obvious moves that help. Just adding schools to increase numbers does nothing, and no, Notre Dame will not be joining the conference full time. Best hope is to try and survive as is...the league obviously has less revenue than the SEC or B1G, but the PAC 12 seems to be in much worse shape, with USC and UCLA gone and Oregon and Washington wanting to be gone...does not leave much.

and I pretty much agree with Arnie's take above...

[JasonEvans]

and I pretty much agree with Arnie's take above...

Arnie's take?!?!

Arnie just agree with my comments and similar statements (of which I was unaware) made by Paul Finebaum.

Who you giving credit to here, Buddy?!?!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I dunno. Maybe I'm just cynical and negative this morning, but I feel like the ACC leaning on the GOR only works until the numbers on the other side get sufficiently absurd and then the dominoes start falling.

I am not sure how the ACC might best reinforce their position, but "standing pat" feels an awful lot like running backwards relative to the national shift.

I'd love to be wrong, and I've been predicting the obliteration of our conference as we know it for nearly a decade, so maybe I'm totally off. I just keep waiting for the morning I wake up and learn that Duke is in the new Big East (best case realistic landing spot at this time).

[budwom]

Arnie's take?!?!

Arnie just agree with my comments and similar statements (of which I was unaware) made by Paul Finebaum.

Who you giving credit to here, Buddy?!?!

I am at heart a philanthropist, plus I know Arnie and know that he's a loyal Duke football fan, right through all The Dark Years!

[budwom]

I dunno. Maybe I'm just cynical and negative this morning, but I feel like the ACC leaning on the GOR only works until the numbers on the other side get sufficiently absurd and then the dominoes start falling.

I am not sure how the ACC might best reinforce their position, but "standing pat" feels an awful lot like running backwards relative to the national shift.

I'd love to be wrong, and I've been predicting the obliteration of our conference as we know it for nearly a decade, so maybe I'm totally off. I just keep waiting for the morning I wake up and learn that Duke is in the new Big East (best case realistic landing spot at this time).

I get your point, but we simply don't have any moves to make. Having said that, and without any insider knowledge, I'll bet that Nina King has made a LOT of phone calls northward, to protect Duke in case the ACC falls apart, which it may well do some times in the future. Personally, I think we'd be a good academic fit for perhaps a slightly discounted membership in the B1G, which really does have some great academic institutions which are massive in size and hence constitute a great TV market.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I get your point, but we simply don't have any moves to make. Having said that, and without any insider knowledge, I'll bet that Nina King has made a LOT of phone calls northward, to protect Duke in case the ACC falls apart, which it may well do some times in the future. Personally, I think we'd be a good academic fit for perhaps a slightly discounted membership in the B1G, which really does have some great academic institutions which are massive in size and hence constitute a great TV market.

I'm also cynical about how much academics really matter to the Big Whatever. It seems like a great branding maneuver, but it's really only discussed when convenient.

I'd love them to prove me wrong and grab Duke when the chips fall. But I suspect they would grab UNC instead - which has a good academic reputation in general, despite the statements of thos forum - and taking UNC over Duke for TV money would not be an "academic" decision.

[budwom]

I'm also cynical about how much academics really matter to the Big Whatever. It seems like a great branding maneuver, but it's really only discussed when convenient.

I'd love them to prove me wrong and grab Duke when the chips fall. But I suspect they would grab UNC instead - which has a good academic reputation in general, despite the statements of thos forum - and taking UNC over Duke for TV money would not be an "academic" decision.

All members except Nebraska are members of the AAU, Assoc. of American Universities, which is a pretty prestigious group, of which the University of Duke is a proud member...so there's that...may not be worth a ton, but it's worth something.

[arnie]

I am at heart a philanthropist, plus I know Arnie and know that he's a loyal Duke football fan, right through all The Dark Years!

Yep, all the dark years and now it’s hard for me to believe the good times will last. My cynicism problem.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Arnie's take?!?!

Arnie just agree with my comments and similar statements (of which I was unaware) made by Paul Finebaum.

Who you giving credit to here, Buddy?!?!

Paul Finebaum

[TexHawk]

All members except Nebraska are members of the AAU, Assoc. of American Universities, which is a pretty prestigious group, of which the University of Duke is a proud member...so there's that...may not be worth a ton, but it's worth something.

Nebraska *was* an AAU member, but lost it shortly after they joined the Big10. And don't listen to those that suggest academics aren't important to that conference. Nebraska losing their status is/was a massive concern, and many schools were PO'ed over it. Ultimately not enough to kick them out, TV money is more important.

We went deep on this a few years ago, but current schools in the discussion who are members of the AAU:

• Arizona
• Arizona State
• Cal
• Colorado
• Duke
• Kansas
• Miami
• Notre Dame
• Oregon**
• Stanford
• UNC
• Washington

(**) Interesting note on Oregon. They are the only AAU school that doesn't have a med school or an Engineering school, and also isn't a land-grant university. Which, from rumors I have heard, has them kinda perpetually on the knife's edge of keeping their status. Which would be an issue for the Big10.

[burnspbesq]

On days like this, I really really hate football.

[JasonEvans]

Nebraska *was* an AAU member, but lost it shortly after they joined the Big10. And don't listen to those that suggest academics aren't important to that conference. Nebraska losing their status is/was a massive concern, and many schools were PO'ed over it. Ultimately not enough to kick them out, TV money is more important.

Nebraska is a "plus" when it comes to TV money for the Big Ten? Really?

I know the football program was awesome for a long time, but they have not played in a bowl game in 7 years and there isn't a single player in college football today who can remember the last time Nebraska was ranked in the top 10 (2001). Not that it matters, but their basketball program is among the worst programs among any in the P6 hoops conferences. They have made the NCAA tournament exactly once in the past 25 years.

I see Nebraska as one of those schools phenomenally lucky to be in the Big Ten**. If we were starting from scratch to pick the top 30 or so programs to form the super conferences, Nebraska would most assuredly not be on the list.

-Jason "** - Rutgers, Iowa, and Minnesota feel like the other super lucky programs in the Big Ten" Evans