2022 Midterm Election thread

[Section 15]

Lexington. Not western. Don't get cut.

You're right about Lexington. Apparently my efforts at suppression are working.

However, Lexington BBQ has always been referred to as "western."

[ClemmonsDevil]

Unfortunately, most of the additional knowledge a long-term representative gains is campaigning and fundraising based. Term limits enable the representative to spend all their time actually serving their constituency, during their final term.

Is there any evidence for this? Maybe this is correct. My issue with having term limits in the Senate is there aren't that many people who I think are capable of being senators. And term limits would mean you would have some truly epic lawmakers who aren't around long enough.

[ClemmonsDevil]

You're right about Lexington. Apparently my efforts at suppression are working.

However, Lexington BBQ has always been referred to as "western."

By whom? I have never heard Lexington called "Western". And forgive the digression folks. This is meat and nothing is more important than meat. And there are quite a few folks on here who may be more skilled at cooking. But no one on here is better at eating than I am.

[Jeffrey]

Is there any evidence for this? Maybe this is correct. My issue with having term limits in the Senate is there aren't that many people who I think are capable of being senators. And term limits would mean you would have some truly epic lawmakers who aren't around long enough.

“Incoming lawmakers are instructed to spend upwards of four hours per day raising money, which is time taken away from the legislative responsibilities of being an elected official.”

https://gai.georgetown.edu/an-inside...l-fundraising/

[ClemmonsDevil]

“Incoming lawmakers are instructed to spend upwards of four hours per day raising money, which is time taken away from the legislative responsibilities of being an elected official.”

https://gai.georgetown.edu/an-inside...l-fundraising/

I get the point of that. I'm just wondering if there's any evidence that term limits make for better legislation? It's perfectly reasonable to feel like they spend too much time with re-election and fundraising. I feel that way too. But would term limits make it more likely that more work gets done? We don't know that.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Unfortunately, most of the additional knowledge a long-term representative gains is (where they spend most of their time) campaigning and fundraising. Term limits enable the representative to spend all their time actually serving their constituency, during their final term.

I have mixed feelings on this. But one could argue that if someone didn’t have to worry about being re-elected they could go rogue and act against the desires of those who elected them.

Unfortunately they spend way too much time fundraising. I have my theories on how to deal with that but they are beyond the scope of this thread.

[Jeffrey]

I get the point of that. I'm just wondering if there's any evidence that term limits make for better legislation? It's perfectly reasonable to feel like they spend too much time with re-election and fundraising. I feel that way too. But would term limits make it more likely that more work gets done? We don't know that.

I saw multiple reports (many years ago) which tracked several (from both parties) representatives’ time utilization by 0.25 hours. Final term representatives spend the most time serving their constituency.

[Section 15]

By whom? I have never heard Lexington called "Western". And forgive the digression folks. This is meat and nothing is more important than meat. And there are quite a few folks on here who may be more skilled at cooking. But no one on here is better at eating than I am.

I guess you're too young to remember when "eastern" barbeque was centered on Wilson and Goldsboro and the cooking skills for whole hog barely made it as far west as Raleigh. I grew up in Greensboro, and there were a few places that would do a passable imitation (and Stamey's wasn't one of them, though they have improved over the past 30 - 40 years). My family would have to drive to Wilson (Parker's and later Bill's) to get the real thing.

At that time, Lexington barbeque was know as "western" barbeque. In fact, there were many discussions about this on the old Sagarmatha board 20 or so years ago. Nowdays, there is a barbeque revival and cooking skills have improved. I can even get halfway decent barbeque in Asheville, where it used to be as unknown as fresh seafood. Hooray for the modern life! I still have friends who are lifelong residents of Asheville who will refuse to eat seafood of any kind because they didn't grow up eating it.

Apparently there has been a loss of institutional memory in these matters. It's a sad thing.

[Jeffrey]

I have mixed feelings on this. But one could argue that if someone didn’t have to worry about being re-elected they could go rogue and act against the desires of those who elected them.

Have you noticed that with second term Presidents?

[ClemmonsDevil]

I saw multiple reports (many years ago) which tracked several (from both parties) representatives’ time utilization by 0.25 hours. Final term representatives spend the most time serving their constituency.

I don't doubt that. But I don't know that this constitutes proof that it's a better idea. I don't think it is. That is not proof that the current situation is better. But to make a change you have to have proof.

[bundabergdevil]

I get the point of that. I'm just wondering if there's any evidence that term limits make for better legislation? It's perfectly reasonable to feel like they spend too much time with re-election and fundraising. I feel that way too. But would term limits make it more likely that more work gets done? We don't know that.

Interesting question. I googled it and found a couple of studies that seek to understand different electoral incentives on legislator productivity. My general hypothesis is that there are some structural things one could do to improve legislator productivity (on average).

Back of the envelope, I would segment by:

1. Changes to the system of getting electing to make it more likely a legislator interested in work/compromise wins (for example, less gerrymandering).

2. Rules changes once one gets elected (term limits would get put here or, for reps, lengthening the term)


Do we consider the Senate more functional than the house? I'd make that argument so believe that longer term limits for Reps might encourage more bipartisanship and genera productivity. I don't know, I also think people talk up the dysfunction of today as if Congress was once super civil and functional. It's always been pretty rough and tumble --- some nasty battles over civil rights, the wars, Nixon, the "red scare" and McCarthyism. The halcyon days never were, IMO.

[Jeffrey]

But to make a change you have to have proof.

In what America?

https://apple.news/AVUE-AhshRHCrXxu0FJsyrw

[ClemmonsDevil]

Interesting question. I googled it and found a couple of studies that seek to understand different electoral incentives on legislator productivity. My general hypothesis is that there are some structural things one could do to improve legislator productivity (on average).

Back of the envelope, I would segment by:

1. Changes to the system of getting electing to make it more likely a legislator interested in work/compromise wins (for example, less gerrymandering).

2. Rules changes once one gets elected (term limits would get put here or, for reps, lengthening the term)


Do we consider the Senate more functional than the house? I'd make that argument so believe that longer term limits for Reps might encourage more bipartisanship and genera productivity. I don't know, I also think people talk up the dysfunction of today as if Congress was once super civil and functional. It's always been pretty rough and tumble --- some nasty battles over civil rights, the wars, Nixon, the "red scare" and McCarthyism. The halcyon days never were, IMO.

Oh I'm not arguing that the system is functional. Merely arguing against term limits. I do think there are things that we could do to improve the system. I was also the last known defender of the Electoral College. But I have finally been convinced

[ClemmonsDevil]

In what America?

https://apple.news/AVUE-AhshRHCrXxu0FJsyrw

Not arguing that there aren't issues. That is one of them.

[Jeffrey]

Not arguing that there aren't issues. That is one of them.

Thanks, I’ve really enjoyed our discussion.

We should probably stop, so we don’t push our moderator luck.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Thanks, I’ve really enjoyed our discussion.

We should probably stop, so we don’t push our moderator luck.

Hahaha! I bet they don't even check this more than every 3 minutes. And for the record: not saying you are wrong. Just skeptical.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I agree. I also agree that Carolina BBQ is not a real thing, which is not something you said, but is something with which I agree. It’s a pile of pork drenched, for some unholy reason, in vinegar and put on a pedestal of lies.

Infraction fodder. Vacation worthy, even!

[Phredd3]

Unfortunately they spend way too much time fundraising.

Tell that to any research scientist.

[acdevil]

Tell that to any research scientist.

My wife would spork this

[Ultrarunner]

Among new voter registrations, women outnumber men, by a lot. Women and their feelings about access to abortion will decide most races this time around. It's on every single ballot whether the candidates want it to be or not.


OK, local evidence that yard signs have absolutely nothing to do with outcome. I know, I know, I have criticized the unscientific use of yards signs as a measure of prevailing sentiment. I only bring it up because the signs are very lopsided, for a candidate that has absolutely no shot of winning. I have not seen a single, not one, yard sign for Maura Healey in the upcoming Massachusetts governor's race. I have seen multiple yard signs for Geoff Diehl. He'll get votes but he'll be lucky to break 30%.

The Republican party in Massachusetts is in absolute disarray and I find it very disheartening. Democrats in Massachusetts need a check and Republicans are not going to nominate anyone that can win statewide for a long time unless they change direction. Despite being a deep blue state, the people of Massachusetts have a healthy history of electing fiscally conservative Republicans as governor, but if you want to win statewide here, you have to at least lean left on most social issues. Those types of Republicans used to exist here as recently as Charlie Baker's last campaign, but Governor Baker is the last one left. There are less than 500,000 registered Republicans in Massachusetts, only about 10% of registered voters (~30% registered Dem and ~60% registered Ind) and just under 7% of the whole population. Primary turnout this year was low with only ~275,000 casting votes in the Republican primary.

Abortion may be a crucial issue in a few local races but I expect that the top three issues will be inflation with the attendant declining wages, crime, and health care. A close fourth at the local level races will be k-12 education.

Food inflation running in double digits and will be going higher as the exceptional increase in farm input costs transition to the food we buy at the grocery store. Health care is up 25 percent over last year, fuel - even with the cynical (imho) raid on the Strategic Petroleum Reserves - is up 25 percent. Janet Yellen has already signaled higher gasoline prices this winter. Home heating costs (natgas) are up 33 percent with home heating oil up 68 percent. Shelter takes a while to rotate through the system but is already up 6.8 percent. In the meantime, real wages have dropped for 17 straight months. "It's the economy, stupid" should be a winning argument as it was in 1992. Whether anyone makes the argument is a totally different issue. I have my doubts.

Crime is surging in most major metro areas. Per the Major Cities Chiefs Association survey, crime is up approximately 50 percent from 2019. Given the lack of willingness to enforce laws and the major retention problems within the police community, I expect this to get much worse. Of note, the Pew poll had crime and gun policy as neck and neck. I count them as one, especially since gun policy swings both ways - some want total bans, some want tanks. (I would not mind a tank for Christmas if one of my kids should happen past this post.)

As near as I can tell, no one is happy with the state of health care in this country. The consolidation of health systems has not improved apparent care. I can't find any recent data on health care outcomes - if you have some, BD, I would love to go over that information. What I see - anecdote alert - is increasing obesity, declining fitness across all age cohorts, increase drug use, legal and illicit, and increased chronic disease. Mental health is precarious in large segments of the population. The costs continue to skyrocket, though most employees are at least partially insulated from that.

Another issue I expect to be big at the local level is education. During the pandemic, a large number of parents had a chance to see what was being taught to their children and decided they don't like it. Homeschooling has grown about 25% as part of the response. Nationwide, school systems are seeing significant, non-demographic related declines. Louden County in Virginia was the canary in the coal mine on this issue.

Border states and Martha's Vineyard feel overwhelm with undocumented immigration but that ranks at or below abortion as an issue. It will have an impact regionally.