2022 Midterm Election thread

[cato]

I’m predicting I will be depressed for a few days after the midterms.

An election only leaves you depressed for a few days? That’s pretty good! A tough sports loss takes me that long to get over.

[Furniture]

No opinion on the other three but the PA poll is fake news. Most of it was done before the historically bad debate performance by Fetterman.

Fake or out of date?

[Area_Man]

Fake or out of date?

Fake because it's out of date.

[bundabergdevil]

For the first time since July, the 538 Senate BOP forecast has a roughly equal shot of the Republicans or Democrats having control after election day. Pre July, the Republicans were favored to take control and from July to today, Democrats were favored - at times by quite a bit - to maintain control.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...e/?cid=rrpromo

[cato]

For the first time since July, the 538 Senate BOP forecast has a roughly equal shot of the Republicans or Democrats having control after election day. Pre July, the Republicans were favored to take control and from July to today, Democrats were favored - at times by quite a bit - to maintain control.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...e/?cid=rrpromo

At this point in time, would you take a 538 forecast over a crowd-sourced DBR forecast?

[bundabergdevil]

At this point in time, would you take a 538 forecast over a crowd-sourced DBR forecast?

Yeah, I do think their modeling approach has stood up better than individual polls. They did much better in 2016, for example, than all the places forecasting a HRC victory with 99% certainty.

I also appreciate they’ve tried to understand why polls have underrepresented certain constituencies and account for it in their model.

About all you can ask really.

And, DBR posters are a pretty low character bunch so I try not to give them much credit!

[TruBlu]

And, DBR posters are a pretty low character bunch so I try not to give them much credit!

Have we met?

[mph]

This isn’t a major shakeup but it’s certainly better news for Masters than for Kelly.

Libertarian candidate, Marc Victor (aka Arizona Joe Pesci), has dropped out and endorsed Masters. Victor was polling between 1 and 6% in recent polls, but most had him in the 1-3% range. It’s fair to assume that some of Victor’s supporters will stay home or vote for Kelly, but, on balance, this is good news for Masters.

[Indoor66]

Have we met?

He is everyman.

[JasonEvans]

I know no one talks about North Carolina's senate race as being one of the big ones to watch, but...

A brand new Meredith College (rated B/C by 538) poll finds Republican Ted Budd only leading Democrat Cheri Beasley 44-43. A Marist College (rated A) poll a few days ago had the race in a dead heat at 44-44.

Feels like there are a lot lot lot of races where, if the polls are off by just a point or two, we could see some wild swings. AZ, PA, GA, NV, NC, OH, and WI are all really too close to call. There are probably not entirely unreasonable scenarios where the GOP or the Dems get to 53 seats.

[PackMan97]

I know no one talks about North Carolina's senate race as being one of the big ones to watch, but...

A brand new Meredith College (rated B/C by 538) poll finds Republican Ted Budd only leading Democrat Cheri Beasley 44-43. A Marist College (rated A) poll a few days ago had the race in a dead heat at 44-44.

Feels like there are a lot lot lot of races where, if the polls are off by just a point or two, we could see some wild swings. AZ, PA, GA, NV, NC, OH, and WI are all really too close to call. There are probably not entirely unreasonable scenarios where the GOP or the Dems get to 53 seats.

44-43 - That's a 13pt undecided...or very significant Libertarian/Green voters. Surprising how much time is left in the race.

[Area_Man]

I know no one talks about North Carolina's senate race as being one of the big ones to watch, but...

A brand new Meredith College (rated B/C by 538) poll finds Republican Ted Budd only leading Democrat Cheri Beasley 44-43. A Marist College (rated A) poll a few days ago had the race in a dead heat at 44-44.

The polls have considerably underestimated Republican Senate candidates for the better part of a decade now.

• 2020: Tillis +1.8, final poll average -2.6
• 2016: Burr +5.7, final poll average 2.0
• 2014: Tillis +1.7, final poll average -1.2

Maybe they've fixed that but I'll believe it when I see it. Since Budd has led in most of the polls I say he wins by 5.

[Area_Man]

Longtime Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston has soured on the Democrats' chances there based on what he's seeing from VBM and EV:
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...64538831478786

Question for the New Yorkers here: what's going on the governor's race? I don't know anything about it but I've seen some polls which are much closer than I would have guessed for NY. Is it a hangover from the Cuomo mess, or is Hochul personally unpopular, or is Zeldin a good candidate, or what?

[Skydog]

The polls have considerably underestimated Republican Senate candidates for the better part of a decade now.

• 2020: Tillis +1.8, final poll average -2.6
• 2016: Burr +5.7, final poll average 2.0
• 2014: Tillis +1.7, final poll average -1.2

Maybe they've fixed that but I'll believe it when I see it. Since Budd has led in most of the polls I say he wins by 5.

Does this trend hold for NC US Representative elections?

edit: I don’t even know if there are any competitive US Rep elections left in NC after all the gerrymandering?

[Rich]

Question for the New Yorkers here: what's going on the governor's race? I don't know anything about it but I've seen some polls which are much closer than I would have guessed for NY. Is it a hangover from the Cuomo mess, or is Hochul personally unpopular, or is Zeldin a good candidate, or what?

I'm in NJ and work in NYC. I think the main issues for city folks are crime and homelessness, which Zeldin has attacked relentlessly.

[tommy]

Longtime Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston has soured on the Democrats' chances there based on what he's seeing from VBM and EV:
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...64538831478786

That's terrible news for the Dems. I don't believe they can get to 50 without Nevada.

[Skydog]

An election only leaves you depressed for a few days? That’s pretty good! A tough sports loss takes me that long to get over.

Big sports loss - 2 days.
Big election loss - several days, with recurring flareups over months/years.
Big poker loss - recent one is still going on!

[sagegrouse]

The polls have considerably underestimated Republican Senate candidates for the better part of a decade now.

• 2020: Tillis +1.8, final poll average -2.6
• 2016: Burr +5.7, final poll average 2.0
• 2014: Tillis +1.7, final poll average -1.2

Maybe they've fixed that but I'll believe it when I see it. Since Budd has led in most of the polls I say he wins by 5.

If I were a pollster, I would be aware of past discrepancies when I set my weights for the current poll.

[mph]

I know no one talks about North Carolina's senate race as being one of the big ones to watch, but...

A brand new Meredith College (rated B/C by 538) poll finds Republican Ted Budd only leading Democrat Cheri Beasley 44-43. A Marist College (rated A) poll a few days ago had the race in a dead heat at 44-44.

Feels like there are a lot lot lot of races where, if the polls are off by just a point or two, we could see some wild swings. AZ, PA, GA, NV, NC, OH, and WI are all really too close to call. There are probably not entirely unreasonable scenarios where the GOP or the Dems get to 53 seats.

I see no scenario where the Dems win NC without the polls systemically undercounting Dem votes--meaning the Dems also win PA, GA (with no runoff), NV, and maybe even Ohio. In other words, I don't see NC being seat number 50 or 51 for the Dems.

[JasonEvans]

The GOP surge has put the Dem senate seat in New Hampster in jeopardy. The Saint Anselm College poll just released today has GOP challenger Don Bolduc up 1 on Dem incumbent Maggie Hassan, 48-47. Hassan was close to a 10 point leader a month ago so this is a really big move by Bolduc. This is, I believe, the first poll to show him in the lead.

Don Bolduc is an interesting case. He won the nomination by being a hard-core election denier but has really attempted to soften his public statements since then. The classic, "race to the middle" that many candidates try to accomplish after running to the right or left in the primary. Well, it seems Bolduc has accomplished it.