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  1. #1041
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    One of the most respected pollsters out there, NYTimes/Sienna, has released several new results on the most hotly contested senate races of the season:

    Georgia: Warnock (D) 49, Walker (R) 46
    Arizona: Kelly (D) 51, Masters (R) 45
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D) 47, Laxalt (R) 47
    Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 49, Oz (R) 44

    Those look like Dem numbers from 4 weeks ago, before to GOP started soaring. If they prove to be true in a week, NYT/Sienna is going to be the new king of polling.
    538 rates NYT/Sienna as one of their few A+ pollsters but also notes they have a 1.1 pt Dem bias. I assume that a correction for a 1.1 pt bias would reduce the Dem lead by 2.2 pts. So ďadjustedĒ values would be approximately:
    Georgia: Warnock (D) 48, Walker (R) 47
    Arizona: Kelly (D) 50, Masters (R) 46
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D) 46, Laxalt (R) 48
    Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 48, Oz (R) 45

    Still would be relatively good news for the Dems, if true.
       

  2. #1042
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Record early voting still going strong in Georgia; over 1.6 million votes cast so far.

    https://twitter.com/bluestein/status...DPvLH4aG9moQ6Q

    That would traditionally benefit Democrats but who knows in this current cycle.
       

  3. #1043
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    538 rates NYT/Sienna as one of their few A+ pollsters but also notes they have a 1.1 pt Dem bias. I assume that a correction for a 1.1 pt bias would reduce the Dem lead by 2.2 pts. So ďadjustedĒ values would be approximately:
    Georgia: Warnock (D) 48, Walker (R) 47
    Arizona: Kelly (D) 50, Masters (R) 46
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D) 46, Laxalt (R) 48
    Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 48, Oz (R) 45

    Still would be relatively good news for the Dems, if true.
    This is such a weird polling cycle. Because polls have underestimated Rs in 2016 and 2020 (but not 2018 oddly enough), pollsters are trying to oversample and weight to make sure they account for the Republican voters. This isn't without issue though. 2 elections may be a statistical aberration, or it may be a signal that Rs are indeed undersampled. The 538 crowd talked about this in their last podcast. If polls are off by 5 points and Rs are undercounted again and Rs have a red wave in the House and get 52 senators then people will decry the death of polling (even louder). But if polls are off +5 for Dems and they keep the Senate and threaten before losing closely in the House, crickets.
       

  4. #1044
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    One of the most respected pollsters out there, NYTimes/Sienna, has released several new results on the most hotly contested senate races of the season:

    Georgia: Warnock (D) 49, Walker (R) 46
    Arizona: Kelly (D) 51, Masters (R) 45
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D) 47, Laxalt (R) 47
    Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 49, Oz (R) 44

    Those look like Dem numbers from 4 weeks ago, before to GOP started soaring. If they prove to be true in a week, NYT/Sienna is going to be the new king of polling.
    Interesting. This doesn't feel right, if only because the most important topline issues favor Republicans. Those are mostly margin of error numbers though?

  5. #1045
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    We're about a week out. Anyone willing to offer predictions (updated or stay-the-same) from the last time we did this with about a month to go?

  6. #1046
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Interesting. This doesn't feel right, if only because the most important topline issues favor Republicans. Those are mostly margin of error numbers though?
    Yeah, but "candidate quality" is really hurting the GOP this cycle. Masters, Walker, and Oz are far from ideal candidates. I mean, Walker is running something like 7-10 points behind Kemp. Had the GOP fielded a more experienced and vetted candidate in Georgia, one has to imagine they would have a lead in that race.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  7. #1047
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I'm seeing a lot of "If you don't vote your friends/family/neighbors will see it" ads running this year.
       

  8. #1048
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, but "candidate quality" is really hurting the GOP this cycle. Masters, Walker, and Oz are far from ideal candidates. I mean, Walker is running something like 7-10 points behind Kemp. Had the GOP fielded a more experienced and vetted candidate in Georgia, one has to imagine they would have a lead in that race.
    Yeah, after 2016, my personal compass on what does and does not constitute a good quality candidate was thrown in the trash.

  9. #1049
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, but "candidate quality" is really hurting the GOP this cycle. Masters, Walker, and Oz are far from ideal candidates. I mean, Walker is running something like 7-10 points behind Kemp. Had the GOP fielded a more experienced and vetted candidate in Georgia, one has to imagine they would have a lead in that race.
    It should be a wake call to the GOP that they need better candidates that are more acceptable to moderate democrats, independent and more traditional republicans when it comes around to the general election.

    It should be, but it probably won't.

    Just as it should be a wake up call to Democrats that these races are even close given their R opponent and that the majority of American aren't the biggest fans of how they are currently running things.

    It should be, but it probably won't.

    Instead whomever wins will use it to declare a mandate for their craziest ideas and push to get them written into law and the result in 2024 will be even more extreme candidates.

    *sigh*

  10. #1050
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    It should be a wake call to the GOP that they need better candidates that are more acceptable to moderate democrats, independent and more traditional republicans when it comes around to the general election.

    It should be, but it probably won't.

    Just as it should be a wake up call to Democrats that these races are even close given their R opponent and that the majority of American aren't the biggest fans of how they are currently running things.

    It should be, but it probably won't.

    Instead whomever wins will use it to declare a mandate for their craziest ideas and push to get them written into law and the result in 2024 will be even more extreme candidates.

    *sigh*
    Neither party is much for "wake up calls." They prefer to dig in an hold on for dear life.
       

  11. #1051
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Neither party is much for "wake up calls." They prefer to dig in an hold on for dear life.
    They do both need one (each in different but important ways).
       

  12. #1052
    A new poll from the Atlanta Journal & Constitution / UGA just dropped (FWIW, I think the poll is rated B/C):

    2022 #GASen General Election
    (R) Walker 46% (+1)
    (D)* Warnock 45%
    (L) Oliver 5%
    Und 5%

    2022 #GAGov General Election
    (R)* Kemp 51% (+7)
    (D) Abrams 44%
    (L) Hazel 2%
    Und 3%

    1,022 LV | 10/16-10/27
    LV Sample: D41/I9/R50 (R+9)

    https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/s...hbIVrGrfbT5D-g
    My Quick Smells Like French Toast.

  13. #1053
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Anyhoo . . .

    We did some predictions a couple of weeks ago, and now that we're only a week out, it's time for updates on our predictions. Here's mine for the Senate, as it's not at all realistic in my opinion to think the Dems have a shot in the House:

    Fetterman blew it. Oz wins it. To be more accurate, Fetterman's handlers blew it.
    GOP also wins NC, OH, WI, and FL and FL isn't close. OH will be pretty close but Vance squeaks it out.

    Dems win GA in a close one, and even closer, win Nevada.

    Result: 50-50, which means two more years of The United States Senate, brought to you by Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema.

    To me, Nevada is the most likely of these that I have in the Dem column to go GOP, and if they win that one, then McConnell gets the big chair back 51-49.

  14. #1054
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Anyhoo . . .

    We did some predictions a couple of weeks ago, and now that we're only a week out, it's time for updates on our predictions. Here's mine for the Senate, as it's not at all realistic in my opinion to think the Dems have a shot in the House:

    Fetterman blew it. Oz wins it. To be more accurate, Fetterman's handlers blew it.
    GOP also wins NC, OH, WI, and FL and FL isn't close. OH will be pretty close but Vance squeaks it out.

    Dems win GA in a close one, and even closer, win Nevada.

    Result: 50-50, which means two more years of The United States Senate, brought to you by Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema.

    To me, Nevada is the most likely of these that I have in the Dem column to go GOP, and if they win that one, then McConnell gets the big chair back 51-49.

    One you left out is AZ. I do think Kelly takes that by a few points for the same reasons I laid out in our earlier prediction.

    PA, where I live, is the most confounding. If not for the stroke, Fetterman would be closer to where Shapiro is, I think. To me itís the fact it took a really blue collar and very active campaigner completely off the trail. Heíd intended to visit every county and he is a very unconventional down to earth guy in contrast to the famous Oz, who is a fine - not bad, not great - candidate.


    I just donít know but I would not at all be surprised to see a Gov/Senate split in PA.
       

  15. #1055
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    One you left out is AZ. I do think Kelly takes that by a few points for the same reasons I laid out in our earlier prediction.

    PA, where I live, is the most confounding. If not for the stroke, Fetterman would be closer to where Shapiro is, I think. To me itís the fact it took a really blue collar and very active campaigner completely off the trail. Heíd intended to visit every county and he is a very unconventional down to earth guy in contrast to the famous Oz, who is a fine - not bad, not great - candidate.


    I just donít know but I would not at all be surprised to see a Gov/Senate split in PA.
    My bad. You're right in that I forgot to include AZ. My calculation did include AZ going to the Dems as I believe it will.

    Best site I've seen, by the way, for looking at the map and changing on your own which way this state or that is going to go, and seeing the impact on the overall balance of power, is 270towin.com. It's also great during Presidential election season as you can input with one click "if this state goes GOP" or "if that state" or combination of states goes blue or red or whatever, and it calculates the electoral college vote totals. Fun to see "well, if my side could just win this combination of states it would be enough" etc and then change those combinations. Anyway, good catch.

  16. #1056
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    47 posts... I just deleted 47 posts from the past few hours.

    In the next few moments I will begin handing out some infractions too.

    Folks, you cannot use this thread as a place to lash out about how upset you are at the election denial, or sheriffs who think they know better than the law, or how politicians should respond to the attack on Paul Pelosi. Your conversation must be confined to issues directly related to the 2022 midterms. So, you can mention that you think candidate X is being hurt in the polls because he/she is loudly screaming that Trump actually won in 2020 but you cannot go on a diatribe about how election deniers are hurting our democracy. You can say that the attack on Paul Pelosi will galvanize Democratic voters but you cannot say that you blame the GOP for making it happen.

    Is that clear? Is anyone confused?

    I will now reopen the thread.

    Please... do... better.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #1057
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lynchburg, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    One you left out is AZ. I do think Kelly takes that by a few points for the same reasons I laid out in our earlier prediction.

    PA, where I live, is the most confounding. If not for the stroke, Fetterman would be closer to where Shapiro is, I think. To me itís the fact it took a really blue collar and very active campaigner completely off the trail. Heíd intended to visit every county and he is a very unconventional down to earth guy in contrast to the famous Oz, who is a fine - not bad, not great - candidate.


    I just donít know but I would not at all be surprised to see a Gov/Senate split in PA.
    Iím sticking with my prediction from a few weeks ago.

    I think the GOP defends all of their vulnerable seatsóNC, OH, PA, and WI and flip AZ and NV. GA goes to a runoff and every GOP presidential contender for 2024 tries to use the runoff as a showcase. Bonus prediction. I think Trump will announce his 2024 bid within 3 weeks of the midterms allowing Jason to quickly open a 2024 election thread so we can give him almost 2 full years of moderator hell.

  18. #1058
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    We're about a week out. Anyone willing to offer predictions (updated or stay-the-same) from the last time we did this with about a month to go?
    Iím sticking with my original prediction. I ain't often right but I've never been wrong
       

  19. #1059
    Iím predicting I will be depressed for a few days after the midterms.
       

  20. #1060
    No opinion on the other three but the PA poll is fake news. Most of it was done before the historically bad debate performance by Fetterman.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    One of the most respected pollsters out there, NYTimes/Sienna, has released several new results on the most hotly contested senate races of the season:

    Georgia: Warnock (D) 49, Walker (R) 46
    Arizona: Kelly (D) 51, Masters (R) 45
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D) 47, Laxalt (R) 47
    Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 49, Oz (R) 44

    Those look like Dem numbers from 4 weeks ago, before to GOP started soaring. If they prove to be true in a week, NYT/Sienna is going to be the new king of polling.

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