2022 Midterm Election thread

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Among new voter registrations, women outnumber men, by a lot. Women and their feelings about access to abortion will decide most races this time around. It's on every single ballot whether the candidates want it to be or not.


OK, local evidence that yard signs have absolutely nothing to do with outcome. I know, I know, I have criticized the unscientific use of yards signs as a measure of prevailing sentiment. I only bring it up because the signs are very lopsided, for a candidate that has absolutely no shot of winning. I have not seen a single, not one, yard sign for Maura Healey in the upcoming Massachusetts governor's race. I have seen multiple yard signs for Geoff Diehl. He'll get votes but he'll be lucky to break 30%.

The Republican party in Massachusetts is in absolute disarray and I find it very disheartening. Democrats in Massachusetts need a check and Republicans are not going to nominate anyone that can win statewide for a long time unless they change direction. Despite being a deep blue state, the people of Massachusetts have a healthy history of electing fiscally conservative Republicans as governor, but if you want to win statewide here, you have to at least lean left on most social issues. Those types of Republicans used to exist here as recently as Charlie Baker's last campaign, but Governor Baker is the last one left. There are less than 500,000 registered Republicans in Massachusetts, only about 10% of registered voters (~30% registered Dem and ~60% registered Ind) and just under 7% of the whole population. Primary turnout this year was low with only ~275,000 casting votes in the Republican primary.

Thank you for bringing this up. I know we aren't supposed to get into endorsing candidates and our allegiances but I bet that a lot of people here would be supportive of a candidate exactly like the one you described. I have always found the moderate members of the opposition party who manage to win in a state that largely votes the other way to be fascinating and a great demonstration of how government is supposed to work.

As you noted, unfortunately they are becoming dinosaurs. There are a number of reasons for this. The primary system certainly does not help. The importance of achieving majorities in the senate and house at the national level also has an impact. A lot of people have raced to the extremes but there still are a number of people in the middle.

I wish I had a solution for this but I can't think of one, and to make one work, it would likely require some type of consensus which is not going to happen.

[bundabergdevil]

We should invite Kyrie Irving to participate in this thread. He'd bring a lot, I think.

[ClemmonsDevil]

We should invite Kyrie Irving to participate in this thread. He'd bring a lot, I think.

Perhaps ironically, he has a well-rounded view of politics.

[bundabergdevil]

Perhaps ironically, he has a well-rounded view of politics.

That joke fell flat.

[SouthernDukie]

That joke fell flat.

But if Kyrie did come into this thread, he’d give it a good shot in the arm.

[bundabergdevil]

But if Kyrie did come into this thread, he’d give it a good shot in the arm.

I'm not immune to reason so if he made a good point or two, I'd listen.

[SouthernDukie]

I'm not immune to reason so if he made a good point or two, I'd listen.

There’s no masking that logic.

[JasonEvans]

Thank you for bringing this up. I know we aren't supposed to get into endorsing candidates and our allegiances but I bet that a lot of people here would be supportive of a candidate exactly like the one you described. I have always found the moderate members of the opposition party who manage to win in a state that largely votes the other way to be fascinating and a great demonstration of how government is supposed to work.

As you noted, unfortunately they are becoming dinosaurs. There are a number of reasons for this. The primary system certainly does not help. The importance of achieving majorities in the senate and house at the national level also has an impact. A lot of people have raced to the extremes but there still are a number of people in the middle.

I wish I had a solution for this but I can't think of one, and to make one work, it would likely require some type of consensus which is not going to happen.

I think it is going to be very interesting to see whether Larry Hogan can get any traction in the 2024 GOP Presidential race (he is almost certain to run). He is exactly what you describe, a moderate who won in a state that leans to the other party (in this case, he is a moderate GOP who won the Governor in Maryland).

It is possible that Trump and DeSantis somewhat divide the MAGA vote, perhaps opening a lane for Hogan to gain some traction among the establishment Republicans who feel like the party has left them behind (I know more than a few of these). It is a long way out, but right now I would say he doesn't really have a shot at actually getting the nomination, but I wonder if he can crack 25% or so in some primaries as an indication that there still is a lane for a moderate Republican (don't forget that moderates McCain and Romney were once GOP nominees).

-Jason "maybe I need to open the 2024 Presidential Thread..." Evans

[Bostondevil]

I think it is going to be very interesting to see whether Larry Hogan can get any traction in the 2024 GOP Presidential race (he is almost certain to run). He is exactly what you describe, a moderate who won in a state that leans to the other party (in this case, he is a moderate GOP who won the Governor in Maryland).

It is possible that Trump and DeSantis somewhat divide the MAGA vote, perhaps opening a lane for Hogan to gain some traction among the establishment Republicans who feel like the party has left them behind (I know more than a few of these). It is a long way out, but right now I would say he doesn't really have a shot at actually getting the nomination, but I wonder if he can crack 25% or so in some primaries as an indication that there still is a lane for a moderate Republican (don't forget that moderates McCain and Romney were once GOP nominees).

-Jason "maybe I need to open the 2024 Presidential Thread..." Evans

Don't you dare! I thought we all had an agreement about the earliest it could be opened and it wasn't September 2022. Nobody has even officially announced yet.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Don't you dare! I thought we all had an agreement about the earliest it could be opened and it wasn't September 2022. Nobody has even officially announced yet.

Hahahaha! I remember!!!!

[BigWayne]

While I can understand your point of view, I find the policies of the two parties to be so diametrically opposed at this point on many issues (and in some cases such a massive shift from our current world) that I have trouble wrapping my head around someone who's sole intent in casting a ballot is to "throw them all out!"

Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.

Incumbents generally are going to do whatever they can to stay in office and try to keep government chugging along in the same failed direction. I guess I follow the old adage about diapers and politicians needing to be changed regularly, and for the same reason.

[Matches]

I think it is going to be very interesting to see whether Larry Hogan can get any traction in the 2024 GOP Presidential race (he is almost certain to run). He is exactly what you describe, a moderate who won in a state that leans to the other party (in this case, he is a moderate GOP who won the Governor in Maryland).

It is possible that Trump and DeSantis somewhat divide the MAGA vote, perhaps opening a lane for Hogan to gain some traction among the establishment Republicans who feel like the party has left them behind (I know more than a few of these). It is a long way out, but right now I would say he doesn't really have a shot at actually getting the nomination, but I wonder if he can crack 25% or so in some primaries as an indication that there still is a lane for a moderate Republican (don't forget that moderates McCain and Romney were once GOP nominees)

I expect Liz Cheney has a similar worldview, although she’s far from a moderate - it says much about the current landscape that some elements see her as a “rino” but clearly she is anti-MAGA. Unless there are some seismic shifts between now and 2024 (and in this environment anything is possible), I don’t see a path for a moderate GOP nominee.

[sagegrouse]

Incumbents generally are going to do whatever they can to stay in office and try to keep government chugging along in the same failed direction. I guess I follow the old adage about diapers and politicians needing to be changed regularly, and for the same reason.

The "same failed direction?" Lessee... Social Security works pretty darned well. Medicare and Medicaid crank out payments to provide health coverage for a large segment of the population. Moreover, most people think the military is strong and effectively led. Since that's the vast majority of government and operations, I have no real idea what you're referring to. Confusion in the legislative branch -- closely related to the topic of this thread? Then support competent candidates for elective office, I guess. What did you have in mind?

Sorry to be blunt, but criticisms of the federal govt are frequently vague and broad-brush. I can't believe people buy that stuff.

Mid-term elections are a way to begin fixing the problem

[Bluedog]

^Maybe Big Wayne is referring to this:
https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...tion-nbc-poll/
Record percentage says US headed in wrong direction: NBC poll
"An NBC News poll revealed just 21 percent of voters feel the nation is headed in the right direction, while 74 percent think the opposite"

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I think it is going to be very interesting to see whether Larry Hogan can get any traction in the 2024 GOP Presidential race (he is almost certain to run). He is exactly what you describe, a moderate who won in a state that leans to the other party (in this case, he is a moderate GOP who won the Governor in Maryland).

It is possible that Trump and DeSantis somewhat divide the MAGA vote, perhaps opening a lane for Hogan to gain some traction among the establishment Republicans who feel like the party has left them behind (I know more than a few of these). It is a long way out, but right now I would say he doesn't really have a shot at actually getting the nomination, but I wonder if he can crack 25% or so in some primaries as an indication that there still is a lane for a moderate Republican (don't forget that moderates McCain and Romney were once GOP nominees).

-Jason "maybe I need to open the 2024 Presidential Thread..." Evans

This is highly unlikely to happen, but there is also a chance that enough MAGA Republicans run that they split votes and someone like Hogan (or Cheney) can win in some of the winner takes all states.

Ranked choice voting would prevent this but good luck getting that passed for a national election. There are some who argue that with ranked choice Trump would not have won the Republican nomination in 2016 - very unclear if this is true or not.

A ranked choice vote with no primaries for all offices would likely be somewhat chaotic but could also help end the race to the extremes. But again, never gonna happen.

[Phredd3]

A ranked choice vote with no primaries for all offices would likely be somewhat chaotic but could also help end the race to the extremes. But again, never gonna happen.

What, in your opinion, is the primary obstacle? BTW, I'm talking about individual states. The federal government will not mandate ranked choice voting on the national level, and I'd guess that the current SCOTUS quite possibly would rule that the federal government doesn't even have the power to do so. But I would think that individual states, particularly purple ones, may well see significant advantages in that.

[budwom]

This is highly unlikely to happen, but there is also a chance that enough MAGA Republicans run that they split votes and someone like Hogan (or Cheney) can win in some of the winner takes all states.

Ranked choice voting would prevent this but good luck getting that passed for a national election. There are some who argue that with ranked choice Trump would not have won the Republican nomination in 2016 - very unclear if this is true or not.

A ranked choice vote with no primaries for all offices would likely be somewhat chaotic but could also help end the race to the extremes. But again, never gonna happen.

Guys like Hogan have zero chance in the current environment. Maybe that will change. The current math just doesn't work.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

What, in your opinion, is the primary obstacle? BTW, I'm talking about individual states. The federal government will not mandate ranked choice voting on the national level, and I'd guess that the current SCOTUS quite possibly would rule that the federal government doesn't even have the power to do so. But I would think that individual states, particularly purple ones, may well see significant advantages in that.

It would involve consensus, collaboration and compromise and those generally no longer exist in politics. And as much as the status quo stinks, there are too many people with a vested interest in the current system to let it go.

[ClemmonsDevil]

The "same failed direction?" Lessee... Social Security works pretty darned well. Medicare and Medicaid crank out payments to provide health coverage for a large segment of the population. Moreover, most people think the military is strong and effectively led. Since that's the vast majority of government and operations, I have no real idea what you're referring to. Confusion in the legislative branch -- closely related to the topic of this thread? Then support competent candidates for elective office, I guess. What did you have in mind?

Sorry to be blunt, but criticisms of the federal govt are frequently vague and broad-brush. I can't believe people buy that stuff.

Mid-term elections are a way to begin fixing the problem

I agree with you here. I think the "throw the bums out" sentiment is generally used by people who don't closely follow policy issues. If you are a policy wonk you are probably very interested in your particular party winning. There are certain policies that are exceptionally important to me and on the national level that has led me to vote exclusively for one party. At the state/local level I was a split ticket voter until very recently.

[Bostondevil]

^Maybe Big Wayne is referring to this:
https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...tion-nbc-poll/
Record percentage says US headed in wrong direction: NBC poll
"An NBC News poll revealed just 21 percent of voters feel the nation is headed in the right direction, while 74 percent think the opposite"

When I read the results of these kinds of polls, I think of how stupid poll questions are. What do we actually want to know with a question like that? What does headed in the wrong direction actually mean? What direction would they prefer?

A much better list of questions would be:
1) Did you vote for your current Representative in Congress?
a) If so, will you vote for them again?
b) If not, will you vote for them this time?
c) If they are retiring, will you vote for the same Party again?
Did you vote for your current Senator?
Repeat a, b, c

Then ask if the country is heading in the wrong direction, just for fun. If they answer yes to voting for incumbents while believing that the country is heading in the wrong direction, that won't change no matter what the government does. Anyone with the attitude that we should throw the buns out who keeps voting for their bum doesn't really want the throw the bums out.