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  1. #321
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    But Democrats have always been a coalition of groups. The Republican party is much more homogeneous in a way that the Democratic party has never been.
    I think this was true before two big shifts: 1) the forming of the coalition that Reagan rode to a landslide — moral majority, chamber of commerce and Wall Street; and 2) realignment of conservatives across the south from Democrat to Republican. By the time of Contract with America, etc., the Republicans had become a big tent party, and the Democrats had seen of the major groups (Dixiecrats) decamp from the Donkey tent to the Elephant gathering.
    Carolina delenda est

  2. #322
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Trump certainly has the backing of the loudest part of the base, and likely the largest part of the base. And for groups such as WSJ economic conservatives or rule of law Republicans, that is a real problem. So they have either voted for moderate Dems, independents, or just stayed home.
    I don’t think this is true at all. Unless that block of voters is extremely small and do not make a difference.

  3. #323
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I think both are confederacies, or as Reagan would say “under a big tent.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/07/gop-attempt-hype-diversity-fails/

    But I don't think this is actually true of both parties. [Look at the article in incognito]

  4. #324
    https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/s...75271470964737

    He denies it adamantly. The woman in question has a literal receipt, a record of a deposit from him, and a signed get well card.

    Is Gary Hart still alive? Do you think he just throws things at the wall when he reads stories like these?

  5. #325
    Join Date
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    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/07/gop-attempt-hype-diversity-fails/

    But I don't think this is actually true of both parties. [Look at the article in incognito]
    I'd be curious to know how many of the 40 are former college and/or professional athletes. And how many are women.

  6. #326
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Probably about right on that ratio, give or take I’d bet.

    Here in Georgia, the rejection of election-denier Jody Hice in favor of Trump villain Brad Raffenspurger shows me that there are two types of Republicans here, as well as Trump villain Brian Kemp’s sound defeat of election-denier and Trump darling David Perdue in the gubernatorial race.

    But if folks wanna say that all Republicans are Trumpists, well — believe what you want. Fox says the same about Democrats and AOC. But I think the latter is as misguided as the former.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    I can add a second data point. My soon to be ex Rep, who voted to impeach, lost by that ratio. The race was predicted to be a run off but in the end it wasn’t close.

    But the Rep down the road, who also voted to impeach, won her primary against a Trump endorsed nominee by 10 points.
    If anyone has a really good read on the demographics / factors that contribute to a Trump-endorsed candidate winning in the primary and an actively anti-Trump Republican winning his/her primary, I'd love to see it. With Liz, I have a good working hypothesis I think.

  7. #327
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    If anyone has a really good read on the demographics / factors that contribute to a Trump-endorsed candidate winning in the primary and an actively anti-Trump Republican winning his/her primary, I'd love to see it. With Liz, I have a good working hypothesis I think.
    Here's a state-by-state rundown of Trump-endorsed candidates successes/failures in the primaries:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/u...primaries.html

    There's no analysis as it relates to WHY though in the above or a description of demographics/factors.

    Repubs who voted to impeach Trump
    WY = big loss
    MI = loss
    WA = one loss, one victory (but WA has an open primary system)
    SC = loss

    Those supporting Trump impeachment lost big (4 out of 5, with the 1 victory in a state where Democratic voters may have propelled the non-Trump endorsed candidate)

    Trump-backed candidates
    AZ: win x4
    AK: loss to Democrat
    MA: win
    WI: win, tiny loss
    GA: big loss, loss, loss, win
    NC: win, win, loss
    SC: (win as mentioned above), loss
    NV (election deniers): win, win
    MD: win (with backing of Dems)
    IL: win (with backing of Dems), win
    OH: win, win, win
    ID: loss
    WV: win

    Trump-backed = 19 wins, 8 losses

  8. #328
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Probably about right on that ratio, give or take I’d bet.

    Here in Georgia, the rejection of election-denier Jody Hice in favor of Trump villain Brad Raffenspurger shows me that there are two types of Republicans here, as well as Trump villain Brian Kemp’s sound defeat of election-denier and Trump darling David Perdue in the gubernatorial race.

    But if folks wanna say that all Republicans are Trumpists, well — believe what you want. Fox says the same about Democrats and AOC. But I think the latter is as misguided as the former.
    Yeah, GA seems to be an exception. Much of their GOP has stood by their state officials and politicos over the protests of Trump, unlike the GOP in Arizona and most other states. I have no theory why GA GOP’ers tend to be more immune to Trump’s stolen election bs but they are.

  9. #329
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    St. Louis

    Todd Akin

    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    It does have some risk. It is also an indication that the DEM's are being politically strategic, not something they've been very good at in recent decades.
    Well, after then-U.S. Representative Todd Akin (R-Mo.), who was running for U.S. Senate, made comments about "legitimate rape," then-incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill's campaign funded countless TV ads touting Akin in the Republican primary, knowing that she'd be able to defeat him easily in the general election, which she did. That, of course, was long before Missouri turned so completely red that if the Grinch ran for office as a Republican, he'd be elected.

  10. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I think this was true before two big shifts: 1) the forming of the coalition that Reagan rode to a landslide — moral majority, chamber of commerce and Wall Street; and 2) realignment of conservatives across the south from Democrat to Republican. By the time of Contract with America, etc., the Republicans had become a big tent party, and the Democrats had seen of the major groups (Dixiecrats) decamp from the Donkey tent to the Elephant gathering.
    The realignment of conservatives in the south took place long before Reagan. It was Nixon's Southern Strategy.

  11. #331
    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    The realignment of conservatives in the south took place long before Reagan. It was Nixon's Southern Strategy.
    Yes. A big shift from one tent to the other. Of course, the Republicans didn’t take back the house until the 104th Congress (1995-1997).

    From the Depression in the 30s until Newt et al flipped the house in the 90s, Democrats controlled the House in every Congress except the 80th (1947-1949) and the 83rd (1953-1955).

  12. #332
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I've heard as it relates to "people being happy about the economy", two factors reign supreme. Employment numbers/wages AND inflation. The current situation has opposites in those two regards, so hard to assess how things will turn out but I think the fed is going to have trouble achieving a "soft landing" if they really intend to get inflation down to 2% (I think they should aim for 3% now myself...). But yeah, unemployment is historically low although there have been some signs of cooling off on the labor market as of late. Even those employed, though, are angry at the prices they see in the grocery store and car dealership. Not saying we're in a recession right now though, but many view is as likely to occur within the next year or so (if not sooner).
    I'd really like to know what the Fed talked about in their emergency meeting on Monday that was a closed session. I think their actions have perhaps the biggest potential to be a "black swan" in the closing month of this election.* I saw that due to interest rates one of the biggest factors in the housing market right now is the amount of loan people can qualify for. It's gone way down, which means the price of houses has to follow.

    * aside from Russia lighting off a few nukes, but that's a different thread

  13. #333
    CNN is reporting that recent polls are showing black voters shifting away from the democrat party and favoring republicans in the upcoming midterms. It's not a major shift at this point, but the numbers could end up being decisive in those states with close elections.

    The current President is not doing so well with black adults, who had given Biden an 87% approval rating last year but that has now dropped to 64%. You have to think that the state of the economy and soaring crime rates are at top of mind here.

  14. #334
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    I honestly don’t know what “moves the needle anymore” but I do know people like dogs and Dr. Oz isn’t generating a lot of excitement and so this probably won’t help


    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/rcna50513

  15. #335
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I honestly don’t know what “moves the needle anymore” but I do know people like dogs and Dr. Oz isn’t generating a lot of excitement and so this probably won’t help


    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/rcna50513
    I'm not a granola chowing, drum circle hippie (well, not anymore), but I'll fist-fight someone who is testing on beagles.

  16. #336
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    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    The realignment of conservatives in the south took place long before Reagan. It was Nixon's Southern Strategy.
    Fair point, but it was Reagan who really courted the so-called Religious Right, which quickly gained an outsized role in the party's grass roots politicking.

  17. #337
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    One of Herschel Walker’s sons has, um, some things to say about Dad:

    https://twitter.com/christianwalk1r/...Lx4N8FAFix48AA

    I am told he is a “conservative influencer on TikTok” but I am not an expert on any part of that phrase.

  18. #338
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    One of Herschel Walker’s sons has, um, some things to say about Dad:

    https://twitter.com/christianwalk1r/...Lx4N8FAFix48AA

    I am told he is a “conservative influencer on TikTok” but I am not an expert on any part of that phrase.
    And more:

    https://twitter.com/christianwalk1r/status/1577286493692755970?s=46&t=wVZQI2fRHkh-qosYljNZaw

    Greg Bluestein (AJC political reporter) also tweeted this morning that Herschel’s one debate with Sen. Warnock set for next Friday has been cancelled FWIW.

    Looks like we may be headed to a split result, R governor and D senator this cycle. But still a month to go, lots can happen.

  19. #339
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    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I honestly don’t know what “moves the needle anymore” but I do know people like dogs and Dr. Oz isn’t generating a lot of excitement and so this probably won’t help


    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/rcna50513
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I'm not a granola chowing, drum circle hippie (well, not anymore), but I'll fist-fight someone who is testing on beagles.

    The debate between Oz and Fetterman is shaping up to be a doozy. Oz has gone pretty hard after Fetterman's stroke / health issues because Fetterman's public engagement has completely transformed pre / post. Oz has had a series of fairly negative stories, including this one, and Fetterman has been trolling him relentlessly.

    The debate is scheduled for October 25 and I worry it might be a cringe fest.

  20. #340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I'm not a granola chowing, drum circle hippie (well, not anymore), but I'll fist-fight someone who is testing on beagles.
    Some of you may or may not find this funny / sick but back when Bill Frist was in office, there were rumors circulating he had practices operating on dead cats in his spare time. His office's congressional softball team were named the lab cats.

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