2022 Midterm Election thread

[JasonEvans]

CNN/SSRS have a new poll in the Warnock/Walker race: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/polit...ion/index.html

The poll finds Warnock ahead of Walker 52-48, with a margin of error of 3.8%.

I found some of the cross tabs absolutely fascinating:

Vote by race      Warnock  Walker
Black voters       96%       3%
White voters       30%      69%

Vote by race/edu        Warnock     Walker
Black college grads       97%        3%
Black no degree           96%        3%
White college grads       47%       51%
White no degree           17%       83%

Interesting for the GOP that even a Black man cannot get more than a tiny fraction of the Black vote. It would appear that policy/party more than race determines most people's votes.

Vote by party ID    Warnock  Walker
Democrats           99%        1%
Independents        61%       36%
Republicans          5%       95%

WARNOCK VOTERS
Is Your Vote More To...
Support Warnock   83%
Oppose Walker     17%

WALKER VOTERS
Is Your Vote More To...
Support Walker    52%
Oppose Warnock    47%

Those last two could be significant as it shows a phenomenon that many have remarked about in this race. Warnock voters like him while Walker voters are really largely voting against the other guy. It will be interesting to see if love triumphs over hate in a runoff race where turnout is generally thought to be lower than a general election.

[snowdenscold]

I'm super curious to know who are those 1% of Democrats voting for Walker.
The 5% crossover the other direction is more explainable.

[bundabergdevil]

I'm super curious to know who are those 1% of Democrats voting for Walker.
The 5% crossover the other direction is more explainable.

Old school Cowboys fans.

[dudog84]

Interesting for the GOP that even a Black man cannot get more than a tiny fraction of the Black vote. It would appear that policy/party more than race determines most people's votes.


Those last two could be significant as it shows a phenomenon that many have remarked about in this race. Warnock voters like him while Walker voters are really largely voting against the other guy. It will be interesting to see if love triumphs over hate in a runoff race where turnout is generally thought to be lower than a general election.

You know Georgia better than me, but perhaps black people see Walker as a cynical ploy to run a black man, however unqualified (famous only for being an athlete decades ago), against a black man in the deep south.

Love always wins. But maybe that's just the flower child in me.

[OldPhiKap]

You know Georgia better than me, but perhaps black people see Walker as a cynical ploy to run a black man, however unqualified (famous only for being an athlete decades ago), against a black man in the deep south.

I suspect that for some, Herschel appears to embody bad stereotypes that they are working hard to kill off.

[PackMan97]

The 5% crossover the other direction is more explainable.

Definitely Redskin fans, because back in the day no one was a Falcons fan.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I'm super curious to know who are those 1% of Democrats voting for Walker.
The 5% crossover the other direction is more explainable.

Cultural dems in the south. Never switched party affiliation in the aftermath of the Civil Rights Act, like most white Dixie-crats, but are Republican voters now. Just never took the time to change parties.

[ClemmonsDevil]

You know Georgia better than me, but perhaps black people see Walker as a cynical ploy to run a black man, however unqualified (famous only for being an athlete decades ago), against a black man in the deep south.

Love always wins. But maybe that's just the flower child in me.

Black voters are and have been historically pragmatic. They supported Biden, not because they didn't have suspicions about him, but because they thought he could win.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/how-we-rise/2020/11/24/how-black-americans-saved-biden-and-american-democracy/

[SouthernDukie]

Cultural dems in the south. Never switched party affiliation in the aftermath of the Civil Rights Act, like most white Dixie-crats, but are Republican voters now. Just never took the time to change parties.

That's as good and reasonable an explanation as any other.

[snowdenscold]

Cultural dems in the south. Never switched party affiliation in the aftermath of the Civil Rights Act, like most white Dixie-crats, but are Republican voters now. Just never took the time to change parties.

Interesting, so a bunch of lazy octogenarians and nonagenarians.

I wonder if they self-identify as D's when asked on a poll or admit that was their current registration, or was that info determined separately from the polling.

[OldPhiKap]

Or just hardcore Dawg fans with light political affiliation.

Maybe it was Herschel’s strong pro-werewolf stance.

[Bluedog]

CNN/SSRS have a new poll in the Warnock/Walker race: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/polit...ion/index.html

The poll finds Warnock ahead of Walker 52-48, with a margin of error of 3.8%.

I found some of the cross tabs absolutely fascinating:

Vote by race      Warnock  Walker
Black voters       96%       3%
White voters       30%      69%

Vote by race/edu        Warnock     Walker
Black college grads       97%        3%
Black no degree           96%        3%
White college grads       47%       51%
White no degree           17%       83%

Interesting for the GOP that even a Black man cannot get more than a tiny fraction of the Black vote. It would appear that policy/party more than race determines most people's votes.

I agree with the bolded statement largely, but it'd be a better test if the Republican candidate was Black and the Democratic candidate was white. In this case, both choices are Black candidates, so having a Black Republican candidate isn't going to move the needle. I was going to suggest to look at Black voter preference for Tim Scott (R-SC), but I didn't realize that he ALSO faced a Black candidate. I assume Tim Scott did better among Black voters than Walker is doing though -- given he's a more likable/less baggage candidate -- but I could be mistaken and couldn't find Scott's vote breakdown by demographic on a quick Google search. I'd also assume that even if he did better than Walker is doing, that Black voters still preferred the Democractic candidate overwhelmingly.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Interesting, so a bunch of lazy octogenarians and nonagenarians.

I wonder if they self-identify as D's when asked on a poll or admit that was their current registration, or was that info determined separately from the polling.

Interestingly enough a lot of those folks used the 2016 election to finally switch. That number used to be much higher for Dems who voted Republican in the South at the Presidential (and usually Senate) level. They still might vote for a Democrat for Governor. This happens frequently in NC for example.

[PackMan97]

Interestingly enough a lot of those folks used the 2016 election to finally switch. That number used to be much higher for Dems who voted Republican in the South at the Presidential (and usually Senate) level. They still might vote for a Democrat for Governor. This happens frequently in NC for example.

Truth right here. Given the strangehold the Democrats had on state and local politics in NC for close to 140 years, if you wanted a political future in NC you had to be a democrat. If you wanted a say in who won, you had to vote in the Democratic primary. There was a time when a Democrat in NC could be as (or even more) conservative as a Republican in CA.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Truth right here. Given the strangehold the Democrats had on state and local politics in NC for close to 140 years, if you wanted a political future in NC you had to be a democrat. If you wanted a say in who won, you had to vote in the Democratic primary. There was a time when a Democrat in NC could be as (or even more) conservative as a Republican in CA.

Oh absolutely. And everyone here knew that.

[Skydog]

Truth right here. Given the strangehold the Democrats had on state and local politics in NC for close to 140 years, if you wanted a political future in NC you had to be a democrat. If you wanted a say in who won, you had to vote in the Democratic primary. There was a time when a Democrat in NC could be as (or even more) conservative as a Republican in CA.

Socially conservative but more pro-worker, no? Even Dixiecrats were pro-union I think, but I may be wrong. History isn’t my strong suit.

[PackMan97]

Socially conservative but more pro-worker, no? Even Dixiecrats were pro-union I think, but I may be wrong. History isn’t my strong suit.

It's not a single point, it's a continuum of many different issues.

[Bostondevil]

CNN/SSRS have a new poll in the Warnock/Walker race: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/polit...ion/index.html

The poll finds Warnock ahead of Walker 52-48, with a margin of error of 3.8%.

I found some of the cross tabs absolutely fascinating:

Vote by race      Warnock  Walker
Black voters       96%       3%
White voters       30%      69%

Vote by race/edu        Warnock     Walker
Black college grads       97%        3%
Black no degree           96%        3%
White college grads       47%       51%
White no degree           17%       83%

Interesting for the GOP that even a Black man cannot get more than a tiny fraction of the Black vote. It would appear that policy/party more than race determines most people's votes.

Vote by party ID    Warnock  Walker
Democrats           99%        1%
Independents        61%       36%
Republicans          5%       95%

WARNOCK VOTERS
Is Your Vote More To...
Support Warnock   83%
Oppose Walker     17%

WALKER VOTERS
Is Your Vote More To...
Support Walker    52%
Oppose Warnock    47%

Those last two could be significant as it shows a phenomenon that many have remarked about in this race. Warnock voters like him while Walker voters are really largely voting against the other guy. It will be interesting to see if love triumphs over hate in a runoff race where turnout is generally thought to be lower than a general election.

I no longer find racial breakdowns of voting patterns interesting. I need to see it broken down by religion. There is a distinct subgroup of white people who basically equate religion and political party, they operate differently from other white people, and tables that lump them together are not very accurate when trying to discuss trends.

[Skydog]

It's not a single point, it's a continuum of many different issues.

Obviously, but I was asking about being pro-labor specifically. I'm pretty sure that is a big difference in platforms between the old southern Democrats and today's southern GOP. The southern dems were identified first as the party of the working class. Sure they were conservative on social issues but it wasn't the core issue. Todays GOP seems to be more identified by social conservatism, nationalism and anti-government stances. I'm sure I'm oversimplifying this but I think it is a meaningful difference. It's like the GOP has successfully peeled the southern lower middle class voter from his/her blue collar worker identification and replaced it with an anti-socialist, anti-big gov't, pro-religion identification.

[snowdenscold]

I no longer find racial breakdowns of voting patterns interesting. I need to see it broken down by religion. There is a distinct subgroup of white people who basically equate religion and political party, they operate differently from other white people, and tables that lump them together are not very accurate when trying to discuss trends.

Even this is way more complicated than you might think. It's probably outside the bounds for this thread everything that I would get into, but I have probably spent dozens, if not hundreds of hours in the past couple years reading, listening, thinking, and talking about this very topic.

I'm not disagreeing with your last sentence, but the inputs and definitions that go into that gets real strange, real fast.

And even if you can sort and parse through those definitional issues (self-identification, church attendance habits, Bebington quadrilateral, etc.), it's still intriguing to look at a long 100-year history from the fundamentalist/modernist controversies through the Cold War and reactions to communism, the impact of the Reagan revolution, and then notable fracturing and realignments 6-7 years ago as well as 2020 to the present. And then specifically how that relates to political and voting behavior.