2022 Midterm Election thread

[Lord Ash]

Sorry, just clarifying that the left-right skew scale is symmetrical around a central line. To be fair, we'd have to stick within the middle 4 boxes. It should be clear that we're intending to embrace balance in this forum, which has a known left-lean.

Ah right, because there are two "middle" boxes going left and right.

And jeez, Jason, you weren't kidding... the bottom of those third boxes get REALLY dicey.

[Bostondevil]

Sorry, just clarifying that the left-right skew scale is symmetrical around a central line. To be fair, we'd have to stick within the middle 4 boxes. It should be clear that we're intending to embrace balance in this forum, which has a known left-lean.

Statistician here and I dispute this assertion. I have seen no evidence that there is a statistically significant difference in the leanings of the posters. Until such an analysis is performed and reported, I will respectfully ask that we all refrain from any such assertions. We cant say that there is a known right lean either until somebody does the math. In general, what I see most often is confirmation bias, people complaining that, in general, posts lean the opposite way from their own political views.

[JasonEvans]

I have deleted some posts that continued to debate the "migrants sent north" issue.

As I stated earlier, unless you are connecting a particular issue to the 2022 election, your post violates the rules against discussing public policy issues.

[Phredd3]

Statistician here and I dispute this assertion. I have seen no evidence that there is a statistically significant difference in the leanings of the posters. Until such an analysis is performed and reported, I will respectfully ask that we all refrain from any such assertions. We cant say that there is a known right lean either until somebody does the math. In general, what I see most often is confirmation bias, people complaining that, in general, posts lean the opposite way from their own political views.

I won't debate the point. The middle 4 boxes, however, is still correct.

[cato]

I’ve made it to page 9 and am gonna check out of this thread for a bit. Please don’t get this thing locked, people.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I’ve made it to page 9 and am gonna check out of this thread for a bit. Please don’t get this thing locked, people.

Hahaha! I have $20 on the mods.

[bundabergdevil]

My money is on Rhaenyra. She’s got the pedigree and ambition and I think voters are so polarized that those on her side will overlook the dabbles into incest. Then it becomes about convincing enough swing voters and that’s where her dragon comes into play.

[Bostondevil]

I won't debate the point. The middle 4 boxes, however, is still correct.

Works for me.

[PackMan97]

I’ve made it to page 9 and am gonna check out of this thread for a bit. Please don’t get this thing locked, people.

Hold my beer!

I'd seriously disagree with the placement of many of the "untouchables" on that media chart, but knowing the rules, I can live within the rules. I'll just pretend the chart is logarithmic the further you get from center, and it makes more sense

...and really I need to know where the Babylon Bee and the Onion are on the chart for it to really matter.

[ClemmonsDevil]

dabbles into incest

We prefer "family attracted".

[Ultrarunner]

Hold my beer!

I'd seriously disagree with the placement of many of the "untouchables" on that media chart, but knowing the rules, I can live within the rules. I'll just pretend the chart is logarithmic the further you get from center, and it makes more sense

...and really I need to know where the Babylon Bee and the Onion are on the chart for it to really matter.

The Babylon Bee and the Onion write future history. Everybody else writes current history.
Unless you're a conspiracy theorist*, in which case, you can pick and choose who writes fiction.
On a semi-serious note, writing satire is getting tough. You can't get wild enough to out run the times for long.


* I might be one. I might not. Who knows. Crazy times. Makes one appreciate boring.

[Lord Ash]

On a semi-serious note, writing satire is getting tough. You can't get wild enough to out run the times for long.

Yeah, was rewatching a bit of Veep, and what is happening seems completely banal, compared to what we've seen over the past few years.

[snowdenscold]

The Babylon Bee and the Onion write future history. Everybody else writes current history.
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As an FYI the Bablyon Bee was sold in 2018 and the tone/emphasis/views have definitely shifted from the first several years. I'll leave it at that.

[Lord Ash]

As an FYI the Bablyon Bee was sold in 2018 and the tone/emphasis/views have definitely shifted from the first several years. I'll leave it at that.

Yeah, the Onion seems a bit more willing to skewer everyone. The Bee seems, to me, to be aiming at some targets more than others? But I don't think either appear on Jason's graph, soooo...

[ClemmonsDevil]

Looking at the midterm and transitioning from the primary season to the general election it seems like Republicans will have a harder time transitioning than Democrats will. As currently constituted, the Republican Party is more ideologically pure. And the litmus test for winning the primary is to take one of three options. Either vehemently state that the 2020 election was fraudulent, suggest there were improprieties but that it didn't affect the outcome, or to avoid talking about it. Polling suggests greater than 70% of Republican voters feel like the election was fraudulent. This is not the forum for discussing those claims. But it is a good forum for discussing the ease with which Republican primary winners will transition into the general. The 538 politics podcast looks at this and Latino voting trends in 2022.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/l...again-in-2022/

[bundabergdevil]

Looking at the midterm and transitioning from the primary season to the general election it seems like Republicans will have a harder time transitioning than Democrats will. As currently constituted, the Republican Party is more ideologically pure. And the litmus test for winning the primary is to take one of three options. Either vehemently state that the 2020 election was fraudulent, suggest there were improprieties but that it didn't affect the outcome, or to avoid talking about it. Polling suggests greater than 70% of Republican voters feel like the election was fraudulent. This is not the forum for discussing those claims. But it is a good forum for discussing the ease with which Republican primary winners will transition into the general. The 538 politics podcast looks at this and Latino voting trends in 2022.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/l...again-in-2022/

I was poking around the forecast models on 538, Cook and RCP ---- current projected outcomes differ with respect to which party takes the Senate. In my own state, for example, RCP projects Oz and 538 favors Fetterman.

Neither here nor there but I do think it would be fun to have the pollsters compete in something beside polling accuracy. Like a gladiatorial pit or Uno or something.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I was poking around the forecast models on 538, Cook and RCP ---- current projected outcomes differ with respect to which party takes the Senate. In my own state, for example, RCP projects Oz and 538 favors Fetterman.

Neither here nor there but I do think it would be fun to have the pollsters compete in something beside polling accuracy. Like a gladiatorial pit or Uno or something.

Hosted by Steve Kornacki.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I was poking around the forecast models on 538, Cook and RCP ---- current projected outcomes differ with respect to which party takes the Senate. In my own state, for example, RCP projects Oz and 538 favors Fetterman.

Neither here nor there but I do think it would be fun to have the pollsters compete in something beside polling accuracy. Like a gladiatorial pit or Uno or something.

I would argue that Uno and Spades are how you really get the measure of a person. I'm the nicest person in the world but I would lower you into a proverbial vat of boiling oil in order to win at Spades or uno. Because those things matter more than virtually anything else.

[JasonEvans]

I would argue that Uno and Spades are how you really get the measure of a person. I'm the nicest person in the world but I would lower you into a proverbial vat of boiling oil in order to win at Spades or uno. Because those things matter more than virtually anything else.

When your partner bids "nil" in spades with a doubleton-King in their hand...



-Jason "I know the above image is Catan... probably after someone traded away al their wheat and then played a monopoly card to get all the wheat back" Evans

[snowdenscold]

-Jason "I know the above image is Catan... probably after someone traded away al their wheat and then played a monopoly card to get all the wheat back" Evans

No cap per person on a Monopoly has to be the biggest design flaw of Catan.
I know you have to observe and play it correctly, but if you can do so, it's basically an "I Win" card they put into the deck.