2022 Midterm Election thread

[ClemmonsDevil]

A look at gerrymandering. And for what it's worth I read PackMan97's post as saying that the national narrative (not the DBR narrative) was that Republicans gerrymander more than Democrats. He is partially correct. Both groups gerrymander. Republicans are a little more active though and Democrats are a little more likely to favor independent commissions.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-wo...ould-win-house

[JasonEvans]

I know some feelings have been dented in the recent posts about gerrymandering. Let's try to tone it down a bit, ok?

Thanks to all.

[bundabergdevil]

DOJ appoints a special prosecutor for Trump. I wonder what the political impact of Trump being unable to run in 2024 would be —- I feel like this would be the best possible political scenario for GOP operatives. Get rid of the guy most of them have quietly hated while getting to cudgel Democrats for a politically motivated attack on a former president popular with the base.

[dudog84]

DOJ appoints a special prosecutor for Trump. I wonder what the political impact of Trump being unable to run in 2024 would be —- I feel like this would be the best possible political scenario for GOP operatives. Get rid of the guy most of them have quietly hated while getting to cudgel Democrats for a politically motivated attack on a former president popular with the base.

I don't think this makes him unable to run, but this is uncharted territory. I have absolutely no idea how this plays out over the next 2 years. I do think this was the only course for the DOJ and Garland.

It's been brought up here many times, the old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. Though wiki tells me there's no such Chinese curse.

[sciencegeek]

Boebert wins her seat back, another one to the GOP.

[OldPhiKap]

DOJ appoints a special prosecutor for Trump. I wonder what the political impact of Trump being unable to run in 2024 would be —- I feel like this would be the best possible political scenario for GOP operatives. Get rid of the guy most of them have quietly hated while getting to cudgel Democrats for a politically motivated attack on a former president popular with the base.

If Ted Cruz is not crying crocodile tears for the next two years, I’ll eat a Trump steak.

[bundabergdevil]

I don't think this makes him unable to run, but this is uncharted territory. I have absolutely no idea how this plays out over the next 2 years. I do think this was the only course for the DOJ and Garland.

It's been brought up here many times, the old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. Though wiki tells me there's no such Chinese curse.

Oh yeah, I’m not saying this makes him unable to run but One outcome of it definitely does.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Boebert wins her seat back, another one to the GOP.

On Friday Adam Frisch, a former Aspen city councilman, announced that he'd called Boebert to concede in one of the final House races in the country to be called. At the time of his concession, he sat only 551 votes behind Boebert, close enough to trigger an automatic recount according to Colorado state law.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...184440587.html

Had those votes been reversed, I doubt very highly that we'd be seeing a concession before a recount. Regardless, this was one of the more surprising races to watch.

[dudog84]

Oh yeah, I’m not saying this makes him unable to run but One outcome of it definitely does.

I don't think there's a law saying he can't run from prison, which is what I assume you meant (though rally attendance might take a hit). Or with even a criminal record. The idea being: Get elected, pardon yourself.

[TrickDribbles99]

DOJ appoints a special prosecutor for Trump. I wonder what the political impact of Trump being unable to run in 2024 would be —- I feel like this would be the best possible political scenario for GOP operatives. Get rid of the guy most of them have quietly hated while getting to cudgel Democrats for a politically motivated attack on a former president popular with the base.

It truly is a rare situation, not least of all because its parallel exists on the other side of the aisle. The investigation that will now take place regarding Biden's family business dealings could be viewed by many on the left in much the same way. Having moved past the denial stage (conspiracy theory, Russian disinformation) then into the controlled demolition stage (siloing the charges on tax fraud and lying on a gun permit), they may now see this as a great opportunity to move on from Biden in favor of someone else (Newsom?) in a very tactful way that could be seen as taking the high road rather than just coldly forcing him out the door. Let's face it, neither of Trump or Biden are particularly strong candidates right now, much less with two more years on them.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It truly is a rare situation, not least of all because its parallel exists on the other side of the aisle. The investigation that will now take place regarding Biden's family business dealings could be viewed by many on the left in much the same way. Having moved past the denial stage (conspiracy theory, Russian disinformation) then into the controlled demolition stage (siloing the charges on tax fraud and lying on a gun permit), they may now see this as a great opportunity to move on from Biden in favor of someone else (Newsom?) in a very tactful way that could be seen as taking the high road rather than just coldly forcing him out the door. Let's face it, neither of Trump or Biden are particularly strong candidates right now, much less with two more years on them.

While this is truly not the place for this discussion, given that this is the midterms thread, I think (surprisingly, given my opinion even 9 moths ago) that Biden is a very strong candidate, just having accomplished what virtually no other President has been able to do in modern history. He kept the Senate, and nearly held the House. That's eye opening.

[PackMan97]

While this is truly not the place for this discussion, given that this is the midterms thread, I think (surprisingly, given my opinion even 9 moths ago) that Biden is a very strong candidate, just having accomplished what virtually no other President has been able to do in modern history. He kept the Senate, and nearly held the House. That's eye opening.

Do not confuse the incompetence of his opponent with Biden being a strong candidate. Any other year not tainted by Trump and 1/6 would have likely ended up with Biden looking at a historic defeat. Speculative of course, but I think likely if say the 1994 Gingrich were running things.

... And yes, my gerrymandering comments were not directed at a DBR poster, only that each party's opinion on gerrymandering seems to be whether they control most of the district drawing. I remember NC for well over 100 years, Rs railed at the unfairness democratic gerrymandering, until Rs took control of district drawing, and then they used every trick democrats had shown them and invented some new ones.

... And that comment is exclusively targeted at politicians, most civilians seem to be university against the practice.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Do not confuse the incompetence of his opponent with Biden being a strong candidate. Any other year not tainted by Trump and 1/6 would have likely ended up with Biden looking at a historic defeat. Speculative of course, but I think likely if say the 1994 Gingrich were running things.

... And yes, my gerrymandering comments were not directed at a DBR poster, only that each party's opinion on gerrymandering seems to be whether they control most of the district drawing. I remember NC for well over 100 years, Rs railed at the unfairness democratic gerrymandering, until Rs took control of district drawing, and then they used every trick democrats had shown them and invented some new ones.

... And that comment is exclusively targeted at politicians, most civilians seem to be university against the practice.

It's ingrained now for the foreseeable future, even if he is not the ultimate candidate. The Cruzes, Hawleys, Grahams, Greenes, Boeberts, and Jordans and so forth are testiment. As long as they are also on the ballot, then Trump is on the ballot.

[Bostondevil]

Do not confuse the incompetence of his opponent with Biden being a strong candidate. Any other year not tainted by Trump and 1/6 would have likely ended up with Biden looking at a historic defeat. Speculative of course, but I think likely if say the 1994 Gingrich were running things.

... And yes, my gerrymandering comments were not directed at a DBR poster, only that each party's opinion on gerrymandering seems to be whether they control most of the district drawing. I remember NC for well over 100 years, Rs railed at the unfairness democratic gerrymandering, until Rs took control of district drawing, and then they used every trick democrats had shown them and invented some new ones.

... And that comment is exclusively targeted at politicians, most civilians seem to be university against the practice.

Do not confuse the Republican Party of the 2020s with the Republican Party of the 1980s. In 2020, no Republican candidate could have beaten Biden and only Trump was able to keep it close. Newt Gingrich running things? Have you heard him speak lately? He wouldn't have carried the under 30s or any minority group. It's not 1994 anymore and it never will be again.

Am I arguing that Biden was a strong candidate? Not really. My husband asked me during the 2020 campaign why I thought Biden was succeeding now as opposed to all the times he failed before. He remarked that he wasn't a candidate that was inspiring unquestioned loyalty or a passionate following. My reply was that much of America was witnessing the potential damage that unquestioned loyalty and a passionate following could produce - I made this comment in reference to the vaccination denials that lead to the unnecessary early deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. I said that no, Biden was not a candidate that was going to inspire the same kind of loyalty that Donald Trump did (does), but that he was probably the best candidate at inspiring confidence in ability to right the ship. America was sinking in 2020 under the weight of a pandemic that was beyond Trump's ability to handle. We didn't need drama, we didn't need excitement, we needed boring competence. Much of America was looking for someone who would take the pandemic seriously and do everything they could to help pull us out of it. So, again, I will not defend Biden on his strength, but I will defend him by saying he was the right person for the job that needing doing in 2020 and that's why he won. No Republican - and by that comment I mean no living, breathing, Republican politician - was going to be the right person for the job in 2020.

I'll quote Gary Abernathy from The Washington Post because his opinion piece is behind a firewall for most of us. He's been a Trumper but the midterms made him give up. He made the point I've been trying to make better than I have been able to do.

"Never Trump Republicans have clung to the hope that their prodigal party would return to them. They still don’t accept that the party they loved didn’t just leave ― it died. These Republicans, wedded to a bloodless country club conservatism, would hardly recognize most rank-and-file members of today’s populist GOP, let alone have brunch with them."

I will include some old school Republicans who supported Trump in the beginning but have changed their minds in that group.

As to gerrymandering - the ultimate gerrymander is the Electoral College.

[dudog84]

As to gerrymandering - the ultimate gerrymander is the Electoral College.

Don't sell the Senate short.

[JasonEvans]

In 2020, no Republican candidate could have beaten Biden and only Trump was able to keep it close.

Yeah, I don't think I agree with this take. In fact, I think I feel like there are likely several somewhat moderate and younger Republicans that Biden would have had real trouble against**. But, none of them even came close to running. Regardless, I know for a fact that none of us know the answer to this question even though you stated it like it was a certainty.

Newt Gingrich running things? Have you heard him speak lately? He wouldn't have carried the under 30s or any minority group. It's not 1994 anymore and it never will be again.

I don't think anyone was implying that the Newt Gingrich of today would be a good standard-bearer of the GOP. The same can be said of virtually all other politicians who were party leaders in the early 90s because they are all 30 years older today than they were then. I mean... really?!?

-Jason "off the top of my head: Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski... heck, maybe Mitt Romney" Evans

[sagegrouse]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...184440587.html

Had those votes been reversed, I doubt very highly that we'd be seeing a concession before a recount. Regardless, this was one of the more surprising races to watch.

To be honest, if the recount puts Frisch ahead of Boebert, he still goes to the Congress, concession or not.

[CameronBornAndBred]

To be honest, if the recount puts Frisch ahead of Boebert, he still goes to the Congress, concession or not.

That would be even funnier than the Dewey/Truman headline. It's one thing for another person to say you lost, but when you do it yourself...24.gif

[Phredd3]

To be honest, if the recount puts Frisch ahead of Boebert, he still goes to the Congress, concession or not.

But recounts typically only change double-digit votes. Nothing close to 500+. Boebert won, and Frisch was right to concede, IMO.

[Section 15]

Yeah, I don't think I agree with this take. In fact, I think I feel like there are likely several somewhat moderate and younger Republicans that Biden would have had real trouble against**. But, none of them even came close to running. Regardless, I know for a fact that none of us know the answer to this question even though you stated it like it was a certainty.

-Jason "off the top of my head: Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski... heck, maybe Mitt Romney" Evans

And you could add Charlie Baker to that list.

However, the quibble I have with this post is that none of them would have had a chance of even sniffing the nomination. To quote BD quoting Gary Abernathy "[T]he party they loved didn’t just leave ― it died." Look what happened to Jeb Bush. He ran as an "old school" Republican and ended up a parody. Heck, even my my guacamole recipe is better than his.

Sure Biden isn't charismatic, neither was Warren Harding, but he ran on a ticket of "a return to normalicy," and the public bought it (at least until Teapot Dome). I would put Eisenhower in the same category. Sometimes being the right person at the right time is better than being a dynamic leader at the wrong time. Because you could be leading in the wrong direction.