2022 Midterm Election thread

[Matches]

You just have to watch a clip of his speech today. There’s really no good way to describe it.

Squinting and giving him the benefit of the doubt, I think he was trying to be personable. Show the crowd he’s a regular dude who can geek out about movies or whatever.

The part where he claimed it’s elitist to ride bikes though - SMDH.

[dudog84]

Squinting and giving him the benefit of the doubt, I think he was trying to be personable. Show the crowd he’s a regular dude who can geek out about movies or whatever.

The part where he claimed it’s elitist to ride bikes though - SMDH.

That's a completely different movie. Perhaps you can recommend it to him.

[Bostondevil]

I got the point of Herschel's Fright Night story. I'm not sure what that says about me, but there you are.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Squinting and giving him the benefit of the doubt, I think he was trying to be personable. Show the crowd he’s a regular dude who can geek out about movies or whatever.

The part where he claimed it’s elitist to ride bikes though - SMDH.

BicycleJeff.jpg

[budwom]

How robust will GOP "luminary" support be for Walker this time? I have trouble believing that all the usual luminaries will travel to GA to back him up...

[CameronBornAndBred]

How robust will GOP "luminary" support be for Walker this time? I have trouble believing that all the usual luminaries will travel to GA to back him up...

It's fitting that the election will be held on Jan 6th. I don't expect the GOP voters to be out in quite the same way that they were on round one, but that might happen on both sides. If the Dems are smart (Bwahahahaha, I make myself laugh sometimes) they'll be pushing get out the vote efforts hard. Will be looking forward to reports from DBR denizens in the know as to if that's happening.

[OldPhiKap]

How robust will GOP "luminary" support be for Walker this time? I have trouble believing that all the usual luminaries will travel to GA to back him up...

Well — this is a new Warnock ad up today:

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1593251764463357955?s=46&t=h5SZgWlFspXTrIZjQXscMg

[dudog84]

It's fitting that the election will be held on Jan 6th. I don't expect the GOP voters to be out in quite the same way that they were on round one, but that might happen on both sides. If the Dems are smart (Bwahahahaha, I make myself laugh sometimes) they'll be pushing get out the vote efforts hard. Will be looking forward to reports from DBR denizens in the know as to if that's happening.

It's December 6th. But shhh, keep telling the opponent's supporters its January 6th.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It's December 6th. But shhh, keep telling the opponent's supporters its January 6th.

LOL, My total bad. I was reading without coffee, and that's never a good thing.

It's for sure a quick turnaround, here are the important dates provided by the Georgia election website.

When to Vote

Be registered: by Nov. 7
Request an absentee ballot: by Nov. 28
Early voting: starts Nov. 28
Election Day: Dec. 6

https://georgia.gov/election-2022

[OldPhiKap]

LOL, My total bad. I was reading without coffee, and that's never a good thing.

It's for sure a quick turnaround, here are the important dates provided by the Georgia election website.

When to Vote

Be registered: by Nov. 7
Request an absentee ballot: by Nov. 28
Early voting: starts Nov. 28
Election Day: Dec. 6

https://georgia.gov/election-2022

In 2020 the runoff was January 5 (I.e. the day before certification), it was moved up last session.

[Duke Blue Lemur]

With the GOP taking the House with a slim margin, it would be interesting to see an analysis of how gerrymandering impacted the results. Would the Democrats have held onto the House if they had not lost seats to redistricting?

[bundabergdevil]

If I were Pelosi, I think now would be a good time to step away from leadership.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

With the GOP taking the House with a slim margin, it would be interesting to see an analysis of how gerrymandering impacted the results. Would the Democrats have held onto the House if they had not lost seats to redistricting?

I think this was discussed upthread but there is a lot of grumbling here in NY about how the Democrats tried to do a big gerrymander here, it got shot down by a judge, and a "neutral party" changed the map and made it much more Republican friendly (so that it was less gerrymandered - it was not "pro-Republican but more representative of actual trends), swinging about four seats. If they had been a bit less greedy up front, it likely would have stood.

The article I read (not 100% sure of the truth and/or partisanship of it) said there was a similar situation in Ohio but they pushed forward with the gerrymandered, pro-Republican map anyway. So between those two states it is more than the Republican margin. And I'm sure there are others - I believe there were cases in both directions, some more egregious than others.

[Skydog]

I think this was discussed upthread but there is a lot of grumbling here in NY about how the Democrats tried to do a big gerrymander here, it got shot down by a judge, and a "neutral party" changed the map and made it much more Republican friendly (so that it was less gerrymandered - it was not "pro-Republican but more representative of actual trends), swinging about four seats. If they had been a bit less greedy up front, it likely would have stood.

The article I read (not 100% sure of the truth and/or partisanship of it) said there was a similar situation in Ohio but they pushed forward with the gerrymandered, pro-Republican map anyway. So between those two states it is more than the Republican margin. And I'm sure there are others - I believe there were cases in both directions, some more egregious than others.

At one point 538 found that the recent redistricting ended up being (surprisingly) a net positive for Dems nationwide, especially before the NY SC ruling. I think it was pretty much a wash after that or at least less favorable to Dems.

All states should follow NY’s (and other states’) lead and end partisan gerrymandering.

[Matches]

With the GOP taking the House with a slim margin, it would be interesting to see an analysis of how gerrymandering impacted the results. Would the Democrats have held onto the House if they had not lost seats to redistricting?

Most likely yes. With a margin so slim, though, almost anything that was a factor could be viewed as decisive. It’s like pointing out we should have won because Boozer was fouled - might be a true statement but there’s also hundreds of other things that could have altered the result.

(I *know* it’s too soon. It will always be too soon.)

[dudog84]

With the GOP taking the House with a slim margin, it would be interesting to see an analysis of how gerrymandering impacted the results. Would the Democrats have held onto the House if they had not lost seats to redistricting?

It appears so. Jason, this is from MSNBC so take it down if you want, I'm just trying to answer the Lemur's question.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-...otus-rcna57362

Over the past year, federal judges in three different states have found that congressional district maps likely violate the Voting Rights Act. These maps amounted to illegal racial gerrymanders which diluted the voting rights of minority voters...Back in February, a five-to-four majority of the Supreme Court said Republican-drawn congressional districts in Alabama should remain in effect despite the fact that a three-judge panel (two of whom are appointees of former President Donald Trump) ruled that those congressional districts likely violated Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act...in a so-called shadow docket ruling, [the SC] let Alabama’s likely illegal maps stand. Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Samuel Alito suggested that there simply wasn’t time to draw legal district lines before the primary elections

Here in Florida, the R-controlled legislature drew up a map which understandably favored them, but DeSantis called a special session and made them re-draw it even more (the governor usually stays out of this, at least publicly). Even if we concede Florida is more red than purple today, their House delegation is now 20R and 8D. A lawsuit was filed, but a judge let it stand for the election. In just the past week, the news is that the lawsuit challenging the redistricting has been allowed to move forward by the federal appeals court.

https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/politi...istricting-map

The Ds in New York tried the same thing, but a judge there knocked them down.

[Rich]

I think this was discussed upthread but there is a lot of grumbling here in NY about how the Democrats tried to do a big gerrymander here, it got shot down by a judge, and a "neutral party" changed the map and made it much more Republican friendly (so that it was less gerrymandered - it was not "pro-Republican but more representative of actual trends), swinging about four seats. If they had been a bit less greedy up front, it likely would have stood.

The article I read (not 100% sure of the truth and/or partisanship of it) said there was a similar situation in Ohio but they pushed forward with the gerrymandered, pro-Republican map anyway. So between those two states it is more than the Republican margin. And I'm sure there are others - I believe there were cases in both directions, some more egregious than others.

At one point 538 found that the recent redistricting ended up being (surprisingly) a net positive for Dems nationwide, especially before the NY SC ruling. I think it was pretty much a wash after that or at least less favorable to Dems.

All states should follow NY’s (and other states’) lead and end partisan gerrymandering.

I think this is the #1 problem with our democracy that no one talks about because it's been going on forever, confusing and, frankly, boring. But partisan gerrymandering of any kind is atrocious and IMHO undemocratic.

[Bluedog]

I think this was discussed upthread but there is a lot of grumbling here in NY about how the Democrats tried to do a big gerrymander here, it got shot down by a judge, and a "neutral party" changed the map and made it much more Republican friendly (so that it was less gerrymandered - it was not "pro-Republican but more representative of actual trends), swinging about four seats. If they had been a bit less greedy up front, it likely would have stood.

The article I read (not 100% sure of the truth and/or partisanship of it) said there was a similar situation in Ohio but they pushed forward with the gerrymandered, pro-Republican map anyway. So between those two states it is more than the Republican margin. And I'm sure there are others - I believe there were cases in both directions, some more egregious than others.

My state, IL, gerrymandered majorly this past year to benefit Democrats. Maryland has done that too. So, it definitely goes both ways, but Republicans seem "better" at it from a state legislature perspective in many states. I applaud states like NY and CA that have more independent parties that set boundaries -- well, I guess NY was simply dictated by the judge as you said...

[dudog84]

At one point 538 found that the recent redistricting ended up being (surprisingly) a net positive for Dems nationwide, especially before the NY SC ruling. I think it was pretty much a wash after that or at least less favorable to Dems.

All states should follow NY’s (and other states’) lead and end partisan gerrymandering.

Yes, there should be a law setting up non-partisan commissions for re-districting in every state. The problem is, how many House members owe their positions to gerrymandering? And how many more are overwhelmingly safe because of it? I'm not sure it has ever been discussed seriously in Congress.

[ClemmonsDevil]

*Breaking news*
Pelosi steps down from leadership position. Her legislative body, her choice.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3...cratic-leader/