I think this was true before two big shifts: 1) the forming of the coalition that Reagan rode to a landslide — moral majority, chamber of commerce and Wall Street; and 2) realignment of conservatives across the south from Democrat to Republican. By the time of Contract with America, etc., the Republicans had become a big tent party, and the Democrats had seen of the major groups (Dixiecrats) decamp from the Donkey tent to the Elephant gathering.
Carolina delenda est
https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/s...75271470964737
He denies it adamantly. The woman in question has a literal receipt, a record of a deposit from him, and a signed get well card.
Is Gary Hart still alive? Do you think he just throws things at the wall when he reads stories like these?
If anyone has a really good read on the demographics / factors that contribute to a Trump-endorsed candidate winning in the primary and an actively anti-Trump Republican winning his/her primary, I'd love to see it. With Liz, I have a good working hypothesis I think.
Here's a state-by-state rundown of Trump-endorsed candidates successes/failures in the primaries:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/u...primaries.html
There's no analysis as it relates to WHY though in the above or a description of demographics/factors.
Repubs who voted to impeach Trump
WY = big loss
MI = loss
WA = one loss, one victory (but WA has an open primary system)
SC = loss
Those supporting Trump impeachment lost big (4 out of 5, with the 1 victory in a state where Democratic voters may have propelled the non-Trump endorsed candidate)
Trump-backed candidates
AZ: win x4
AK: loss to Democrat
MA: win
WI: win, tiny loss
GA: big loss, loss, loss, win
NC: win, win, loss
SC: (win as mentioned above), loss
NV (election deniers): win, win
MD: win (with backing of Dems)
IL: win (with backing of Dems), win
OH: win, win, win
ID: loss
WV: win
Trump-backed = 19 wins, 8 losses
Yeah, GA seems to be an exception. Much of their GOP has stood by their state officials and politicos over the protests of Trump, unlike the GOP in Arizona and most other states. I have no theory why GA GOP’ers tend to be more immune to Trump’s stolen election bs but they are.
Well, after then-U.S. Representative Todd Akin (R-Mo.), who was running for U.S. Senate, made comments about "legitimate rape," then-incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill's campaign funded countless TV ads touting Akin in the Republican primary, knowing that she'd be able to defeat him easily in the general election, which she did. That, of course, was long before Missouri turned so completely red that if the Grinch ran for office as a Republican, he'd be elected.
Yes. A big shift from one tent to the other. Of course, the Republicans didn’t take back the house until the 104th Congress (1995-1997).
From the Depression in the 30s until Newt et al flipped the house in the 90s, Democrats controlled the House in every Congress except the 80th (1947-1949) and the 83rd (1953-1955).
I'd really like to know what the Fed talked about in their emergency meeting on Monday that was a closed session. I think their actions have perhaps the biggest potential to be a "black swan" in the closing month of this election.* I saw that due to interest rates one of the biggest factors in the housing market right now is the amount of loan people can qualify for. It's gone way down, which means the price of houses has to follow.
* aside from Russia lighting off a few nukes, but that's a different thread
CNN is reporting that recent polls are showing black voters shifting away from the democrat party and favoring republicans in the upcoming midterms. It's not a major shift at this point, but the numbers could end up being decisive in those states with close elections.
The current President is not doing so well with black adults, who had given Biden an 87% approval rating last year but that has now dropped to 64%. You have to think that the state of the economy and soaring crime rates are at top of mind here.
I honestly don’t know what “moves the needle anymore” but I do know people like dogs and Dr. Oz isn’t generating a lot of excitement and so this probably won’t help
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/rcna50513
One of Herschel Walker’s sons has, um, some things to say about Dad:
https://twitter.com/christianwalk1r/...Lx4N8FAFix48AA
I am told he is a “conservative influencer on TikTok” but I am not an expert on any part of that phrase.
And more:
https://twitter.com/christianwalk1r/status/1577286493692755970?s=46&t=wVZQI2fRHkh-qosYljNZaw
Greg Bluestein (AJC political reporter) also tweeted this morning that Herschel’s one debate with Sen. Warnock set for next Friday has been cancelled FWIW.
Looks like we may be headed to a split result, R governor and D senator this cycle. But still a month to go, lots can happen.
The debate between Oz and Fetterman is shaping up to be a doozy. Oz has gone pretty hard after Fetterman's stroke / health issues because Fetterman's public engagement has completely transformed pre / post. Oz has had a series of fairly negative stories, including this one, and Fetterman has been trolling him relentlessly.
The debate is scheduled for October 25 and I worry it might be a cringe fest.