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  1. #281
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Yes, I'm aware that there is a panel of people that officially declare the beginning and end of things like recessions and we aren't officially in one until "they" say we are

    For the next few years I think we see parts if the economy go in and out of growth periods all out of sync with each other. It's going to make for some nasty politics as both sides will laugh onto the narrative that best fits their needs at the time. Can't wait!
    I listened to a radio interview with the Chair of the NBER panel and it was fascinating. I spent a few minutes trying to dig it up, but couldn’t. Given my listening habits, it was probably on Marketplace, Planet Money or The Indicator.

    I agree with you that we usually know we are in a recession before the recession is officially declared. And that was one of the points raised by the Chair when he was asked why the Board doesn’t just declare a recession when they see two consecutive quarters of economic growth. His answer was that their mandate was backward looking, with timing based on when sufficient data come available. This is compelling to me, since preliminary information is often revised later when more data is available.

    People who want current/forward looking analysis have good resources based on the preliminary data.
    Carolina delenda est

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I listened to a radio interview with the Chair of the NBER panel and it was fascinating. I spent a few minutes trying to dig it up, but couldn’t. Given my listening habits, it was probably on Marketplace, Planet Money or The Indicator.

    I agree with you that we usually know we are in a recession before the recession is officially declared. And that was one of the points raised by the Chair when he was asked why the Board doesn’t just declare a recession when they see two consecutive quarters of economic growth. His answer was that their mandate was backward looking, with timing based on when sufficient data come available. This is compelling to me, since preliminary information is often revised later when more data is available.

    People who want current/forward looking analysis have good resources based on the preliminary data.
    The COVID recession was declared exceptionally fast by officials (for their standards). But that certainly was a unique situation. They declared in early June that it started in March. Then in July said it ended in April. The two month recession was the shortest ever.

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