2022 Midterm Election thread

[accfanfrom1970]

There are two different Republican parties now, at least in some quarters.

As proof of this I would have expected a loud and united response to the death threat and name calling of Mitch by the former president.

Still waiting.

[ClemmonsDevil]

As proof of this I would have expected a loud and united response to the death threat and name calling of Mitch by the former president.

Still waiting.

To defend OPK, I think he means there are traditional Republican voters who still hold out hope for a return to traditional Republican ideological principles. And I think he's probably correct that there are some. And the election of a Republican governor in VA is a good case for that. My assumption is there are fewer of these everyday. The ACELA Republican is probably shifting towards the Democratic party as we seem to be witnessing party stratification based on education level more and more.

And to defend you, I think the takeover of the party is complete from the Trumpist wing and people like McConnell have lost. They just haven't realized that yet.

[Matches]

As proof of this I would have expected a loud and united response to the death threat and name calling of Mitch by the former president.

Still waiting.

I mean, it’s the opposite of loud, but it’s pretty united.

[bundabergdevil]

To defend OPK, I think he means there are traditional Republican voters who still hold out hope for a return to traditional Republican ideological principles. And I think he's probably correct that there are some. And the election of a Republican governor in VA is a good case for that. My assumption is there are fewer of these everyday. The ACELA Republican is probably shifting towards the Democratic party as we seem to be witnessing party stratification based on education level more and more.

And to defend you, I think the takeover of the party is complete from the Trumpist wing and people like McConnell have lost. They just haven't realized that yet.

I'll use the Liz Cheney primary and say that only about 1 in 3 Republicans vote for the values of the Bush-era party and 2 in 3 are all in on Trump and his political POV.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I'll use the Liz Cheney primary and say that only about 1 in 3 Republicans vote for the values of the Bush-era party and 2 in 3 are all in on Trump and his political POV.

I would roughly agree but would remove the word "political" from that sentence to more accurately describe the situation.

[Skydog]

I'll use the Liz Cheney primary and say that only about 1 in 3 Republicans vote for the values of the Bush-era party and 2 in 3 are all in on Trump and his political POV.

Definitely true for GOP primary voters. Primary voters trend toward the extremes.

[Bluedog]

Definitely true for GOP primary voters. Primary voters trend toward the extremes.

Right. Here in IL, the Trump-backed candidate won the Republican primary, which the current Democratic Governor heavily spent to SUPPORT (with the theory that the more moderate non-Trumper Republican would be harder to win against in the general). But it's a catch-22 for Republican candidates. They can't win their general election if they don't win their primary.

[bundabergdevil]

Definitely true for GOP primary voters. Primary voters trend toward the extremes.

Fair enough.

[Kdogg]

Right. Here in IL, the Trump-backed candidate won the Republican primary, which the current Democratic Governor heavily spent to SUPPORT (with the theory that the more moderate non-Trumper Republican would be harder to win against in the general). But it's a catch-22 for Republican candidates. They can't win their general election if they don't win their primary.

That can be a dangerous game. It’s like political Russian roulette. IL is not the only place this election cycle.

[Skydog]

That can be a dangerous game. It’s like political Russian roulette. IL is not the only place this election cycle.

It does have some risk. It is also an indication that the DEM's are being politically strategic, not something they've been very good at in recent decades.

[sagegrouse]

Well I think the reality is that the "staff weenies" and "unelected bureaucrats" know a lot more about the actual substance of the issues than do the TV-friendly sound-byting blowhards whose primary "skill" is raising enough money to win an election.

Well, the funny thing about elected officials is that the actual work they do -- digging into details on their various committees -- is hardly ever seen, because only speeches are aired.

[sagegrouse]

Traditionally a recession is two quarters of negative economic growth, so we are already there. However, CNN had this article to try and put lipstick on that pig.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/inves...ing/index.html



I will say COVID, China's continuing lockdowns, the spike in mortgage rates, a housing shortage in most places, and many other things have got things out there confused as all get out. For example, domestic manufacturing is experience a significant resugance right now and is showing it's strongest growth in decades and is likely not to slow down very much at all. Housing is in trouble with the rise in prices and rates, but with a housing shortage something will have to give as people need to live somewhere. The mortgage industry is hemoraging and it really doesn't matter what real estate does because lots of folks have refinanced and aren't going anywhere. (i know my wife and I have probably refinanced 10 different times as rates have fallen over the past 20 years. Now we are at sub 3% and are done until we pay off the house and have to go chasing out kids to wherever they end up in 15 years). I don't disagree with the CNN article in that the next few years are going to be hard to label...but at the end of the day if your family is experience job/income loss it may not matter if you are the 4% that is unemployeed, your personal unemployment rate is 100%

How this all affects the mid term will likely depend on a voters industry. I imagine those in housing and mortgage industries would break R because of their economic recession. Manufacturing and unions will likely break D because of their economic boom. At the end, everyone will yell at each other for not understanding their reality and call each other fake news watchers.

IMHO, where the H got lost at an HHH rally in 1968, it would be odd to declare a recession when the unemployment rate is just above 3.0 percent.

[Skydog]

Well, the funny thing about elected officials is that the actual work they do -- digging into details on their various committees -- is hardly ever seen, because only speeches are aired.

They do some of this. That is when they are at their best. But unfortunately it is also true that most legislation, including the details, is written by lobbyists these days.

[Bluedog]

IMHO, where the H got lost at an HHH rally in 1968, it would be odd to declare a recession when the unemployment rate is just above 3.0 percent.

I've heard as it relates to "people being happy about the economy", two factors reign supreme. Employment numbers/wages AND inflation. The current situation has opposites in those two regards, so hard to assess how things will turn out but I think the fed is going to have trouble achieving a "soft landing" if they really intend to get inflation down to 2% (I think they should aim for 3% now myself...). But yeah, unemployment is historically low although there have been some signs of cooling off on the labor market as of late. Even those employed, though, are angry at the prices they see in the grocery store and car dealership. Not saying we're in a recession right now though, but many view is as likely to occur within the next year or so (if not sooner).

[Jeffrey]

IMHO, where the H got lost at an HHH rally in 1968, it would be odd to declare a recession when the unemployment rate is just above 3.0 percent.

How many economists, do you know, who are not “odd”?

[OldPhiKap]

I'll use the Liz Cheney primary and say that only about 1 in 3 Republicans vote for the values of the Bush-era party and 2 in 3 are all in on Trump and his political POV.

Probably about right on that ratio, give or take I’d bet.

Here in Georgia, the rejection of election-denier Jody Hice in favor of Trump villain Brad Raffenspurger shows me that there are two types of Republicans here, as well as Trump villain Brian Kemp’s sound defeat of election-denier and Trump darling David Perdue in the gubernatorial race.

But if folks wanna say that all Republicans are Trumpists, well — believe what you want. Fox says the same about Democrats and AOC. But I think the latter is as misguided as the former.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Probably about right on that ratio, give or take I’d bet.

Here in Georgia, the rejection of election-denier Jody Hice in favor of Trump villain Brad Raffenspurger shows me that there are two types of Republicans here, as well as Trump villain Brian Kemp’s sound defeat of election-denier and Trump darling David Perdue in the gubernatorial race.

But if folks wanna say that all Republicans are Trumpists, well — believe what you want. Fox says the same about Democrats and AOC. But I think the latter is as misguided as the former.

But Democrats have always been a coalition of groups. The Republican party is much more homogeneous in a way that the Democratic party has never been. I don't think every Republican is in the Trump wing, but I think he has more broad support from the Republican base than AOC (or Bernie) ever enjoyed in the Democratic party, because the Democratic party is and always was a loose confederacy.

[Kdogg]

I'll use the Liz Cheney primary and say that only about 1 in 3 Republicans vote for the values of the Bush-era party and 2 in 3 are all in on Trump and his political POV.

I can add a second data point. My soon to be ex Rep, who voted to impeach, lost by that ratio. The race was predicted to be a run off but in the end it wasn’t close.

But the Rep down the road, who also voted to impeach, won her primary against a Trump endorsed nominee by 10 points.

[Section 15]

But Democrats have always been a coalition of groups. The Republican party is much more homogeneous in a way that the Democratic party has never been. I don't think every Republican is in the Trump wing, but I think he has more broad support from the Republican base than AOC (or Bernie) ever enjoyed in the Democratic party, because the Democratic party is and always was a loose confederacy.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party... I'm a Democrat." - Will Rodgers

[OldPhiKap]

But Democrats have always been a coalition of groups. The Republican party is much more homogeneous in a way that the Democratic party has never been. I don't think every Republican is in the Trump wing, but I think he has more broad support from the Republican base than AOC (or Bernie) ever enjoyed in the Democratic party, because the Democratic party is and always was a loose confederacy.

I think both are confederacies, or as Reagan would say “under a big tent.”

Trump certainly has the backing of the loudest part of the base, and likely the largest part of the base. And for groups such as WSJ economic conservatives or rule of law Republicans, that is a real problem. So they have either voted for moderate Dems, independents, or just stayed home.