2022 Midterm Election thread

[cato]

Zooming out to 40,000 feet, this election cycle confirms again that we have an engaged and nearly evenly divided electorate that refuses to grant either party a true legislative mandate, rewards polarizing candidates in non-competitive races and punishes polarizing candidates in a relative handful of races that end up deciding the balance of power in Congress.

[Tooold]

These are stunning results. The Democratic Party leaders will probably interpret this as a mandate in support of their policies. However, I think that there are two factors which had a big effect on this election: 1) the over-turning of Roe vs Wade and 2) several poor candidate choices on the Republican side. Yes, the poor choices were “Trump candidates” but also, at least in some cases, not well-qualified. Maybe this serves to send a message to Trump, but he is hard of hearing and knock-downs seem to energize him.

IMO, and from my own personal experience in local politics, when winning candidates (or parties) assume that the results constitute mandates it can result in a more determined efforts to push through their agenda, and less effort to reach out to the other party or work for their entire constituency (something Warnock promised to do). I hope the Democrats do not fall into this trap, but I suspect they will.

[OldPhiKap]

Welp, that was fun.

I think there is one main takeaway: if Rs put Trump on the ballot in 2024, they lose Georgia. Not sure how many defeats it will take for that lesson to sink in though.

[OldPhiKap]

Turnout was pretty good. Roughly speaking, Walker got about 184,000 fewer votes in the runoff than in the general; Warnock only lost about 142,000.

[JasonEvans]

So, here is the deal...

We will keep this thread open for about another day. I welcome post-midterm analysis and other thoughts of a non-partisan basis. I suspect much of what can be said has already been said, but I will give all of ya'll a chance to finish your thoughts.

Then, it gets closed.

I will not be opening a 2024 thread at this time. We need to wait until the campaign actually begins. I mean, Trump has declared but he hasn't had a single rally or any event yet (other than having dinner with controversial guests). I suspect we will get more folks declaring and actual campaigning starting in the spring.

Thanks for (mostly) playing nicely and following the rules of the thread.

[ClemmonsDevil]

These are stunning results. The Democratic Party leaders will probably interpret this as a mandate in support of their policies. However, I think that there are two factors which had a big effect on this election: 1) the over-turning of Roe vs Wade and 2) several poor candidate choices on the Republican side. Yes, the poor choices were “Trump candidates” but also, at least in some cases, not well-qualified. Maybe this serves to send a message to Trump, but he is hard of hearing and knock-downs seem to energize him.

IMO, and from my own personal experience in local politics, when winning candidates (or parties) assume that the results constitute mandates it can result in a more determined efforts to push through their agenda, and less effort to reach out to the other party or work for their entire constituency (something Warnock promised to do). I hope the Democrats do not fall into this trap, but I suspect they will.

Democratic voters feel like these sentences are only ever targeted at them. They feel like when Republicans win election they push through a republican wish list but if Democrats win elections they get told they should moderate.

Now I happen to think you are correct and that governing from the middle with broadly popular legislation is the more reasonable way to stay in power. The middle is where the vacuum exists politically right now. I think Machin into a lesser extent Sinema have helped Democrats out quite a bit. They have been reliable votes for democratic legislation, but they have forced moderation which does a couple of things.

[PackMan97]

Democratic voters feel like these sentences are only ever targeted at them.

My advice to Democratic voters is, deal with it. It's a problem only winners that have just had historic midterm election success have to deal with. Of course they want to say it's due to their policies and their take on the issues of the day. Despite the fact that made the ENTIRE election about Donald Trump and his threat to democracy plus a side of abortion rights.

The main take away should be that Trump is toxic to winning, and it's the Republicans that need to learn that lesson.

[ClemmonsDevil]

My advice to Democratic voters is, deal with it. It's a problem only winners that have just had historic midterm election success have to deal with. Of course they want to say it's due to their policies and their take on the issues of the day. Despite the fact that made the ENTIRE election about Donald Trump and his threat to democracy plus a side of abortion rights.

The main take away should be that Trump is toxic to winning, and it's the Republicans that need to learn that lesson.

I agree. Their best policy is to not be Trump.

[JasonEvans]

My advice to Democratic voters is, deal with it. It's a problem only winners that have just had historic midterm election success have to deal with. Of course they want to say it's due to their policies and their take on the issues of the day. Despite the fact that made the ENTIRE election about Donald Trump and his threat to democracy plus a side of abortion rights.

The main take away should be that Trump is toxic to winning, and it's the Republicans that need to learn that lesson.

I mean, it turns out that when you present the greatest threat to American democracy since the King's redcoats fled back to England there is an electoral price to pay. Whodathunkit?

[budwom]

I need to come up with something inflammatory. And quickly

[PackMan97]

I mean, it turns out that when you present the greatest threat to American democracy since the King's redcoats fled back to England there is an electoral price to pay. Whodathunkit?

Don't make me invoke Godwin's law... I get your point.

Which is exactly my point. This election was a referendum on Trump, not on Democratic policies. Democrats are just going to have to deal with folks pointing that out. Democrats had the best midterm showing since 1934 because of Trump and his actions. Without Trump, perhaps they would have done better than average, but does anyone think in a "normal" cycle, Democrats would have gained Senate seats and Governors? This election for Democrats is pretty much a once in a hundred years performance.

edit: Is it governorships? gubernatorial seats? governor's mansions? /shrug

edit2: Yes, I realize there is really no such thing as "normal" for now.

[camion]

I mean, it turns out that when you present the greatest threat to American democracy since the King's redcoats fled back to England there is an electoral price to pay. Whodathunkit?

Many republican politicians have been trying to balance on the fence. Don't piss off Trump, but don't piss off the anti-Trump voters. That isn't working for them at this point and I think they need to choose one or the other. Pain now, distancing from Trump or pain later, when voters vote.

Then there is the problem of getting primaried.

[PackMan97]

Many republican politicians have been trying to balance on the fence. Don't piss off Trump, but don't piss off the anti-Trump voters. That isn't working for them at this point and I think they need to choose one or the other. Pain now, distancing from Trump or pain later, when voters vote.

Then there is the problem of getting primaried.

Getting primaried is an easy problem to solve if the right wing media would help out. At this point it should be pretty easy to brand Trump as the biggest loser and just pile on that meme.

[JasonEvans]

Don't make me invoke Godwin's law... I get your point.

Which is exactly my point. This election was a referendum on Trump, not on Democratic policies. Democrats are just going to have to deal with folks pointing that out.

And why is that a bad thing? It does not mean that Democratic policies are universally hated or that Democrats lucked into an election victory. The voters saw what both parties stood for and largely chose Democrats (in the close senate and governor races). Whatever the reason may be, that is something Democrats should celebrate. While it would be really nice if we voted for the candidate we liked the most, it has been a while since that happened in America (probably Obama over McCain). We generally vote for the candidate we dislike the least. Ain't no shame in being that candidate.

[dudog84]

...I welcome post-midterm analysis and other thoughts...

...Trump has declared but he hasn't had a single rally...

Anyone who thinks they know what this all means is guilty of premature encapsulation.

And ooh, you set yourself up there. It won't be long now. Countdown starts 3..., 2.....

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

And why is that a bad thing? It does not mean that Democratic policies are universally hated or that Democrats lucked into an election victory. The voters saw what both parties stood for and largely chose Democrats (in the close senate and governor races). Whatever the reason may be, that is something Democrats should celebrate. While it would be really nice if we voted for the candidate we liked the most, it has been a while since that happened in America (probably Obama over McCain). We generally vote for the candidate we dislike the least. Ain't no shame in being that candidate.

I would say that the Republican Party is doing the exact same thing - all their candidates are running against Biden/Pelosi et al.

It's been ages since I've seen a issues based ad or even speech. It's all about finger pointing at the other side and saying "we aren't them!"

I hope the discourse elevates above this soon. But I'm not holding my breath.

[Matches]

.

Which is exactly my point. This election was a referendum on Trump, not on Democratic policies. Democrats are just going to have to deal with folks pointing that out. Democrats had the best midterm showing since 1934 because of Trump and his actions.

You are correct, and that’s utterly bonkers. Could you imagine the 1994 midterms being a referendum on George HW Bush? Or the 1982 midterms being a referendum on Jimmy Carter?

Rs are in a pickle of their own making, where the party is being held hostage by a failed candidate. Until he goes away, *every* election will be a referendum on him, and that will never be good news for Rs.

[OldPhiKap]

So, here is the deal...

We will keep this thread open for about another day. I welcome post-midterm analysis and other thoughts of a non-partisan basis. I suspect much of what can be said has already been said, but I will give all of ya'll a chance to finish your thoughts.

Then, it gets closed.

I will not be opening a 2024 thread at this time. We need to wait until the campaign actually begins. I mean, Trump has declared but he hasn't had a single rally or any event yet (other than having dinner with controversial guests). I suspect we will get more folks declaring and actual campaigning starting in the spring.

Thanks for (mostly) playing nicely and following the rules of the thread.

Thanks for running and moderating it, I am sure it is neither fun nor easy.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Many republican politicians have been trying to balance on the fence. Don't piss off Trump, but don't piss off the anti-Trump voters. That isn't working for them at this point and I think they need to choose one or the other. Pain now, distancing from Trump or pain later, when voters vote.

Then there is the problem of getting primaried.

Irony in that is that it's a recipe for losing. While trying to keep the base happy, everyone else pulls the lever for your opponent, and there are more of "everyone else". You can't support election deniers while trying to win an election. So far, Trump has talked more about 2020 than giving reasons for why he should be elected in 2024. He's trying to win the election held two years ago more than he's trying to win the one two years from now, and as long as he is running, that will be his platform.
At some point the GOP might figure this out and go ahead and piss off Trump and the MAGA crowd. They will win more if they do.

[PackMan97]

I hope the discourse elevates above this soon. But I'm not holding my breath.

I'll direct this comment toward my elders who may recall elections before the 15s and 30s ads that dominate today. Is the decline in discourse and civility always been a complaint? Kind like the music kids listen to these days? Old people always complain.


2008 was definitely a good year for discourse and I thought 1992 was particularly good with Ross Perot buying up many 30 minute spots to give more policy detail. Other than that, negative campaigning does seem to rule the day.