2022 Midterm Election thread

[JasonEvans]

Well, we may regret this but the mod team has decided to allow a conversation about the upcoming midterms.

YOU MUST READ THIS POST BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD!!

The DBR has a very strict policy against posting opinions about political/public policy matters. It is how we keep this a sane and civil place. As such, we will not discuss the merits of taxes, abortion, universal health care, gun control, illegal immigration, voter fraud, or a myriad of other issues. Don't post here that the GOP are evil because they want to take away a woman's right to choose or that Democrats absolutely stole the Presidency in 2020. Doing so will earn you a swift and severe punishment from the mod community.

What you can do in this thread is talk about -- in a dispassionate way -- the way the midterms are shaping up. You can give analysis of why you think abortion or the search of Mar-a-lago will motivate voters, but cannot say what you personally think about those issues. You can point out a new poll that shows Herschel Walker neck-and-neck with Raphael Warnock, but cannot ask how anyone could vote for a former football player who has trouble stringing his thoughts together. Similarly, you can provide quotes from an article about how Democrats are avoiding talking about Biden on the campaign trail, but cannot say, "of course they are. He's the worst president of my lifetime and is probably senile."

If you have ANY QUESTIONS about whether a post is allowable, feel free to send it to me before posting it. I am really good about responding quickly to this stuff and helping folks craft a post that will not end up in an infraction.

Lastly, if you want to see how all this works, here is the 2020 Presidential Election thread. It veers off course a few times, but largely follows the rules I have outlined here.

Good luck everyone...

-Jason "note: the responsibility for maintaining civility in this thread falls to me... the rest of the mod team is largely rolling their eyes at me right now " Evans

[JasonEvans]

The advice I posted repeatedly in other election threads in the past bears repeating...

Look at your post before you hit "submit" and put yourself in the shoes of someone from the opposite side of the aisle. Would they see anything in it that causes them to shout back? Will they be able to tell from your post which party you support?

Your goal should be to make it impossible to see from your post if you are a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or anything else.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think both parties believe this is a battle for the soul of our country. I anticipate extremely high turn out for a midterm and some very motivated bases.

[BigWayne]

I think both parties believe this is a battle for the soul of our country. I anticipate extremely high turn out for a midterm and some very motivated bases.

I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?

Well, I don't know if you are in the minority, but you certainly aren't alone.

The two party system seems to leave a lot of dissatisfied constituents. Unfortunately, the two party system is designed to make a small number of people very powerful.

When all one side has to do it point at the other and say "at least we aren't THEM," it doesn't lend itself to any real progress or governance.

I'm not sure I know anyone IRL these days who is incredibly happy with their party and party leadership. I know lots of people who are incensed with the "other side."

I don't know how we pull our government out of this particular rut.

[dudog84]

Well, I don't know if you are in the minority, but you certainly aren't alone.

The two party system seems to leave a lot of dissatisfied constituents. Unfortunately, the two party system is designed to make a small number of people very powerful.

When all one side has to do it point at the other and say "at least we aren't THEM," it doesn't lend itself to any real progress or governance.

I'm not sure I know anyone IRL these days who is incredibly happy with their party and party leadership. I know lots of people who are incensed with the "other side."

I don't know how we pull our government out of this particular rut.

Don't you mean downward spiral?

Thanks Jason, for putting up with us biennially.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Don't you mean downward spiral?

Thanks Jason, for putting up with us biennially.

Further Down the Spiral. But that's because Jason has a sweet NIN tramp stamp from his college days.

[SouthernDukie]

Well, I don't know if you are in the minority, but you certainly aren't alone.

The two party system seems to leave a lot of dissatisfied constituents. Unfortunately, the two party system is designed to make a small number of people very powerful.

When all one side has to do it point at the other and say "at least we aren't THEM," it doesn't lend itself to any real progress or governance.

I'm not sure I know anyone IRL these days who is incredibly happy with their party and party leadership. I know lots of people who are incensed with the "other side."

I don't know how we pull our government out of this particular rut.

Agreed on all points. The extremes from both parties really disgust this independent in Florida. I've suggested a genuine "spoil the ballot" that is tabulated and broadcast along with winners and losers votes. Doubt it's going to happen any time soon.

[JasonEvans]

I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?

While I can understand your point of view, I find the policies of the two parties to be so diametrically opposed at this point on many issues (and in some cases such a massive shift from our current world) that I have trouble wrapping my head around someone who's sole intent in casting a ballot is to "throw them all out!"

Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.

[budwom]

The most interesting dynamic (for me anyway) seems to be the success of a number of pro Trump candidates for the GOP whom the national party leaders fear are too extreme to win in the general election.

Just next door in New Hamster, ultra popular GOP governor John Sununu turned down a chance to take on Maggie Hassan for a Senate seat (he almost certainly would have won). Instead the guy who (barely) got the nod in the Senate primary is a guy who has referred to Sununu as a "Chinese communist sympathizer." I can understand the notion of some that the way to pick winning candidates is to have some drinks in a back room, smoke cigars, and pick a candidate. Not especially democratic though.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.

I could see that happening. What say the GOP nominee is a total election denier, Jan 6 "Patriot" supporter, and that rubs you the wrong way, yet at the same time the GOP candidate for the House is more in line with your views and doesn't rub the wrong way.

That's the exact scenario (the GOP nom #1 case) that is the reason this year is not going to be the Red Wave that we thought was likely a year ago, but will still likely be very close.

[PackMan97]

I think both parties believe this is a battle for the soul of our country. I anticipate extremely high turn out for a midterm and some very motivated bases.

I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?

While I can understand your point of view, I find the policies of the two parties to be so diametrically opposed at this point on many issues (and in some cases such a massive shift from our current world) that I have trouble wrapping my head around someone who's sole intent in casting a ballot is to "throw them all out!"

Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.

While both parties may be diametrically opposed, that does not mean I have to like their ideas. Pick any of the hot button issues, Jason, that you say must not be mentioned. In general those ideas are more extreme and out of touch with the average person who would like some compromise in the middle. I don't care what issue it is, I feel like the parties are losing the middle. There are many reasons, but the biggest has already been mentioned, the nationalization of politics. Politics used to always be local, but recently it's becoming national. The conservative democrats are extinct in the south and the liberal republicans are mostly extinct in the north east and west.

I quite often find the parties are increasingly extreme and their politicians increasingly unfit for office such that I must vote for neither of them. Quite often I take their attack ads to heart and conclude neither are fit for office.

I think all of this can be true. This video summarizes how I feel about voting this days.



I would love to see a "None of the above" option on the ballot, or a strong third party candidate, but sadly no one is coming to our rescue.

[Ultrarunner]

While I can understand your point of view, I find the policies of the two parties to be so diametrically opposed at this point on many issues (and in some cases such a massive shift from our current world) that I have trouble wrapping my head around someone who's sole intent in casting a ballot is to "throw them all out!"

Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.

Jason, I'll be doing almost exactly that - offices/parties are reversed but otherwise the same scenario. I consider one incumbent dumber than a bucket of rocks and the other corrupted. Heck, both might be corrupted. I'll be voting against both. In one case, I'll have to vote 3rd party if I can find one not (to me) nuts, otherwise I'll write in.

I think it is important to note that, while voters such as myself may be passionate about policies, many pay attention when only lip-service is paid and won't vote in lockstep. If a given pol does not follow their rhetoric with appropriate actions, then they, imho, do not deserve my vote.

[BigWayne]

While I can understand your point of view, I find the policies of the two parties to be so diametrically opposed at this point on many issues (and in some cases such a massive shift from our current world) that I have trouble wrapping my head around someone who's sole intent in casting a ballot is to "throw them all out!"

Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.

Incumbents generally are going to do whatever they can to stay in office and try to keep government chugging along in the same failed direction. I guess I follow the old adage about diapers and politicians needing to be changed regularly, and for the same reason.

[sagegrouse]

Incumbents generally are going to do whatever they can to stay in office and try to keep government chugging along in the same failed direction. I guess I follow the old adage about diapers and politicians needing to be changed regularly, and for the same reason.

The "same failed direction?" Lessee... Social Security works pretty darned well. Medicare and Medicaid crank out payments to provide health coverage for a large segment of the population. Moreover, most people think the military is strong and effectively led. Since that's the vast majority of government and operations, I have no real idea what you're referring to. Confusion in the legislative branch -- closely related to the topic of this thread? Then support competent candidates for elective office, I guess. What did you have in mind?

Sorry to be blunt, but criticisms of the federal govt are frequently vague and broad-brush. I can't believe people buy that stuff.

Mid-term elections are a way to begin fixing the problem

[ClemmonsDevil]

The "same failed direction?" Lessee... Social Security works pretty darned well. Medicare and Medicaid crank out payments to provide health coverage for a large segment of the population. Moreover, most people think the military is strong and effectively led. Since that's the vast majority of government and operations, I have no real idea what you're referring to. Confusion in the legislative branch -- closely related to the topic of this thread? Then support competent candidates for elective office, I guess. What did you have in mind?

Sorry to be blunt, but criticisms of the federal govt are frequently vague and broad-brush. I can't believe people buy that stuff.

Mid-term elections are a way to begin fixing the problem

I agree with you here. I think the "throw the bums out" sentiment is generally used by people who don't closely follow policy issues. If you are a policy wonk you are probably very interested in your particular party winning. There are certain policies that are exceptionally important to me and on the national level that has led me to vote exclusively for one party. At the state/local level I was a split ticket voter until very recently.

[Phredd3]

I, for one, am happy to have the thread available, so let's start there: Thank you to Jason and the mod team for giving it a go. It's bound to get rough at times, but the opportunity is rare on the interwebs to have a rational political discussion these days. In my not-so-humble opinion, having a democracy gets progressively more difficult when the populous does not feel comfortable discussing politics. So for that reason alone, I believe the existence of this thread is a healthy thing. Thank you once again to the mod team for allowing it to happen.

[ClemmonsDevil]

538 denizen here. This is shaping up to be a high turnout election. It appears Dems are about as likely to keep the Senate as Republicans are to take back the House.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

To counter Big Wayne from a voting trends perspective: I have become MUCH more of a single party voter than I used to be (historically I was 70/30 towards one side). My parents (and brother, uncle, aunt, cousin, grandma etc) were educators. I vote for educational funding across the board. But I think BDubs and I are part of the growing voter trends. Either a disdain for both sides, or a retreat to a more partisan corner.

[tommy]

Thanks Jason for giving us a shot at this once again.

I am so deeply concerned for the future of our country. I just don't see how the enormous gulf between "red" and "blue" can be bridged when the two sides are both so tribal and they are essentially living in different realities. People on opposite sides can barely talk to each other anymore, and many times actually can't, as it seems like everything quickly devolves into politics and finger pointing and that ends that.

As far as the midterms go, it sure seems like both sides have a killer issue. Inflation for the red team and abortion for the blue. Both are highly motivating for their voters and the key will be which one is more motivating, which in turn will be a result of which side does the better job of keeping the primary narrative on "their" killer issue.

[cato]

538 denizen here.

Excellent place to get bad takes. ;-)