2022 Fantasy Football Season.

[jv001]

Don't mean to pick on you, but this post raised a general question that I struggle with in fantasy drafts sometimes. You comment that WRs are more valuable in PPR leagues, and therefore are prioritized in the draft - is that the right way to think about it or not? I always take the approach that you should draft based on "value over replacement player" and scarcity value, not total projected points. For example QBs generally score the most points in absolute terms in most leagues, but since most leagues start only one QB, and the variance between the best and the replacement player is not usually huge, you can always find an adequate QB available on the waiver wire, and therefore using a draft pick early doesn't make sense. Wouldn't this apply to WRs as well (relatively deep position, especially compared to RB), regardless of whether the league is PPR or non-PPR? Compared to my QB example you do have the flex dynamic which is a wrinkle to consider which could cause you to lean WR vs RB, but overall can't you make an argument that draft strategy shouldn't be that different between PPR and non PPR leagues (assuming roster construction is equivalent, etc)? This does not seem to be the common approach so maybe I'm the crazy one.

I'm in 5 leagues (yeh, I'm crazy). In four of the leagues, the biggest difference in points is in rushing. In my favorite league, there is 1 point for every 10 yards rushed and 1 point for every 5 rushing attempts. In the other four leagues, there's 0.04 per rushing yard and nothing for rushing attempts. As for receiving it's the same.

[CDu]

Don't mean to pick on you, but this post raised a general question that I struggle with in fantasy drafts sometimes. You comment that WRs are more valuable in PPR leagues, and therefore are prioritized in the draft - is that the right way to think about it or not? I always take the approach that you should draft based on "value over replacement player" and scarcity value, not total projected points. For example QBs generally score the most points in absolute terms in most leagues, but since most leagues start only one QB, and the variance between the best and the replacement player is not usually huge, you can always find an adequate QB available on the waiver wire, and therefore using a draft pick early doesn't make sense. Wouldn't this apply to WRs as well (relatively deep position, especially compared to RB), regardless of whether the league is PPR or non-PPR? Compared to my QB example you do have the flex dynamic which is a wrinkle to consider which could cause you to lean WR vs RB, but overall can't you make an argument that draft strategy shouldn't be that different between PPR and non PPR leagues (assuming roster construction is equivalent, etc)? This does not seem to be the common approach so maybe I'm the crazy one.

First, I was saying "more valuable in PPR than in standard format." As in, relatively more valuable.

But yes, I definitely draft based on VORP. And a good WR will get more catches. And in PPR, that inflates their value over a replacement player compared with a league where only yards and TDs count. It's also why a guy like Ekeler is even more valuable in PPR than he is in standard. That's why WR go earlier in PPR than they do in standard leagues. If you look at any VBD ranking system, you'll see that PPR VBD rankings have WR sooner than in standard leagues.

[Acymetric]

I don't think I can help myself, believe I'll be starting Singletary over Antonio Gibson at the flex tonight.

[jv001]

I don't think I can help myself, believe I'll be starting Singletary over Antonio Gibson at the flex tonight.

Singletary really looked good. Better than the other RBs. I really messed up. I picked up Gabe Davis off waivers and left him and his 18 points on the bench last night. I've got Pittman and AJ Brown instead at wide receivers and that isn't too bad, but I have Antonio Gibson at Flex. I did get 17 points from the Bills defense and 7 points from their kicker Bass. I left Allen Robinson on the bench and that was a good thing. I'm probably going to drop him.

[mkirsh]

First, I was saying "more valuable in PPR than in standard format." As in, relatively more valuable.

But yes, I definitely draft based on VORP. And a good WR will get more catches. And in PPR, that inflates their value over a replacement player compared with a league where only yards and TDs count. It's also why a guy like Ekeler is even more valuable in PPR than he is in standard. That's why WR go earlier in PPR than they do in standard leagues. If you look at any VBD ranking system, you'll see that PPR VBD rankings have WR sooner than in standard leagues.

So you are saying PPR creates a larger variance in WR points and increases the value of a top tier WR over replacement WR. I can buy that.

Separately, I think Dean Spanos snuck into my fantasy league - the team I'm playing this week has Herbert, Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Gerald Everett. I will be rooting for the Raiders D big time, but have to overcome Cam Akers giant goose egg from last night.

[CDu]

So you are saying PPR creates a larger variance in WR points and increases the value of a top tier WR over replacement WR. I can buy that.

Yep, because instead of just getting a gain in yards and TD points, the better receiver is also racking up more catches. Let's say the replacement level receiver averages 50 catches and 600 yds, while a top WR averages 100 catches and 1200 yards (totally made up; I'm not sure where the VORP line is). In standard scoring, the top WR's VORP is 60: 60 yards * 1pt per 10 yards. In PPR, the top WR's VORP is 110 (the 60 points from before plus 50 extra points for catches).

PPR makes a HUGE difference in VORP for players who catch passes. Both good WR and good TE get more VORP in PPR than in standard, and they gain more VORP than RBs gain (by virtue of catching more passes than RBs do).

PPR also shifts which RBs are most valuable. Guys like McCaffrey and Ekeler jump up higher in the rankings, and it makes marginal RBs who catch passes have actual value. James White from a few years ago is the classic example: borderline worthless in standard, but a startable player in PPR.

[jv001]

Yep, because instead of just getting a gain in yards and TD points, the better receiver is also racking up more catches. Let's say the replacement level receiver averages 50 catches and 600 yds, while a top WR averages 100 catches and 1200 yards (totally made up; I'm not sure where the VORP line is). In standard scoring, the top WR's VORP is 60: 60 yards * 1pt per 10 yards. In PPR, the top WR's VORP is 110 (the 60 points from before plus 50 extra points for catches).

PPR makes a HUGE difference in VORP for players who catch passes. Both good WR and good TE get more VORP in PPR than in standard, and they gain more VORP than RBs gain (by virtue of catching more passes than RBs do).

PPR also shifts which RBs are most valuable. Guys like McCaffrey and Ekeler jump up higher in the rankings, and it makes marginal RBs who catch passes have actual value. James White from a few years ago is the classic example: borderline worthless in standard, but a startable player in PPR.

Great explanation. 3-down running backs most of the time are more valuable than RBs that are mainly rushers. Of course, there are a few exceptions, Henry and Najee Harris come to mind.

[jv001]

Well, I ended up 3 & 2 in my fantasy leagues with one of the wins in my local league. I was an underdog going into the game, but I ended up with 181 points and won by 36 points.

K. Murray= 24
Mixon= 26
Swift= 29
Pittman= 27
AJ Brown= 25
Gibson= 21
Bills Def.= 17
Butker= 6
Knox= 1
Perryman= 2
I also had Kirk 17 and Gabe Davis with 18 on my bench.

The two losses were by 3.5 points and 8 points. In those 4 ESPN games I was the underdog in 3 of them and the one I was a favorite in, it was by 2 points.

The only injury problems were to my back-up, QB, Zack Prescott (going to miss about a month or two with a thumb injury) and Najee Harris a foot injury that's not supposed to be very serious.
There's some interesting waiver wire candidates this week. I'll be looking at them.

[Acymetric]

Well, I started out the night down 49 points with Diggs and Allen still in play. 16 points to go...

[jv001]

Well, I started out the night down 49 points with Diggs and Allen still in play. 16 points to go...

Hope you pulled it out. The first week in 5 leagues= 3-2. Second week= 2-3 with one win by 1.5 points. Left several points on my bench.

[CDu]

After a 2-1 start to the season, I took 3 Ls this week. Back to the drawing board a bit. Well, not really. I just need my first round picks to start producing like first-round picks. Cook, Ekeler (in a PPR league), and CMac have been disappointing for me so far.

[elvis14]

Well, I started out the night down 49 points with Diggs and Allen still in play. 16 points to go...

I started the night up a few points. Playing against Diggs and having the Viking's Jefferson still to play. Ah yeah, lost by a handful of points. Diggs was on fire. The Bills are really good right now.

[mkirsh]

I have to be the shakiest 2-0 team ever, winning my first game by 3.87 points and my second by 0.15 points thanks to Hurts's late INT last night. The only silver lining is that the other owners in my league rejected my suggestion of making the last 2 playoff spots point based instead of record based, so maybe this is the karmic response. But I need to make some serious upgrades to my roster. Jerry Jeudy lifted me to victory in Week 1 and almost cost me the W in week 2, so I need him to get healthy. And I don't know what to do about Cam Akers - I didn't even start him this week and not sure he's even worthy of a roster spot a this point. But in a 14 team league the waiver wire has very slim pickings right now.

[Acymetric]

Hope you pulled it out. The first week in 5 leagues= 3-2. Second week= 2-3 with one win by 1.5 points. Left several points on my bench.

Yes, ended up winning handily after their last TD. I'm sitting at 4-0 (2 leagues) after two weeks...maybe you'll go 5-0 next weekend.

[jv001]

Yes, ended up winning handily after their last TD. I'm sitting at 4-0 (2 leagues) after two weeks...maybe you'll go 5-0 next weekend.

I didn't make it under defeated, but I did go 4-1, with the only loss coming with my best team by 5 points. Swift and Mixon each got me 8 points. Joe got me started for this week with 21 points in one league and 17.2 in 3 other leagues. Good luck this week.

[kmspeaks]

Between injuries and byes I'm having to grab waiver wire running backs this week and hoping maybe I can catch lightning in a bottle with someone making the most of an expanded opportunity.

Pick 2 of - Eno Benjamin, Darrell Henderson, Travis Etienne

[Acymetric]

Between injuries and byes I'm having to grab waiver wire running backs this week and hoping maybe I can catch lightning in a bottle with someone making the most of an expanded opportunity.

Pick 2 of - Eno Benjamin, Darrell Henderson, Travis Etienne

I would probably rank them Benjamin, Etienne, Henderson. Etienne has more long term value for the season but Benjamin is probably a better play in this specific week. I think you could make a case for either.

Because of this advice, we can probably count on Henderson going for 30 this week.

Edit: Sorry, you said pick two so I would go with Benjamin and Etienne.

[kmspeaks]

I would probably rank them Benjamin, Etienne, Henderson. Etienne has more long term value for the season but Benjamin is probably a better play in this specific week. I think you could make a case for either.

Because of this advice, we can probably count on Henderson going for 30 this week.

Edit: Sorry, you said pick two so I would go with Benjamin and Etienne.

I have Taylor and Swift on IR, then Jamall Williams and Dameon Pierce on bye weeks so I'm not too worried about long term value. I just need to get through this week.

[jv001]

I would probably rank them Benjamin, Etienne, Henderson. Etienne has more long term value for the season but Benjamin is probably a better play in this specific week. I think you could make a case for either.

Because of this advice, we can probably count on Henderson going for 30 this week.

Edit: Sorry, you said pick two so I would go with Benjamin and Etienne.

I looks like the Ram's RB, Cam Akers will be traded if the team can find a taker. I don't know what he did or did not do, but the word is he'll never play for them again. That opens up the lead back to Henderson (I took him off waivers). The Rams did pick up a couple of RBs so it's not a given that Henderson will flourish in fantasy leagues. I think one of the backs (Malcom Brown) they picked up was injured in yesterdays game. As for Etienne, I think the team might be going away for Robinson and going to their young player.

[jv001]

Between injuries and byes I'm having to grab waiver wire running backs this week and hoping maybe I can catch lightning in a bottle with someone making the most of an expanded opportunity.

Pick 2 of - Eno Benjamin, Darrell Henderson, Travis Etienne

In one of my leagues, I started Benjamin over Walker III and it cost me the game. I went 2-3 in the five leagues yesterday. I lost one of those games with Henry and Pierce on byes.