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  1. #1
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    KenPom and the Dorks 2022-23

    Let this be the thread for discussion of KenPom and other advanced stats for the coming season...

    And let it start with this... an interview Donald, Sam, and I did this week with none other than KenPom himself! This was a ton of fun and Ken had some really great insight into what his formulas mean for all of college basketball. He's humble and funny and just really, really smart about data and sports. I am sure all of you who clicked on this thread will really enjoy it.

    https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/duk...=VMP9214648387

    Oh, and he says Duke won't be as high as you might think in his preseason rankings. The Blue Devils are going to get dinged for having a first time head coach. The reality is, when you look at the data over many years, a first-time coach is going to have struggles and stumbles that a more experienced coach will not. Have a listen and let us know if you agree with what KenPom has to say.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Let this be the thread for discussion of KenPom and other advanced stats for the coming season...

    And let it start with this... an interview Donald, Sam, and I did this week with none other than KenPom himself! This was a ton of fun and Ken had some really great insight into what his formulas mean for all of college basketball. He's humble and funny and just really, really smart about data and sports. I am sure all of you who clicked on this thread will really enjoy it.

    https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/duk...=VMP9214648387

    Oh, and he says Duke won't be as high as you might think in his preseason rankings. The Blue Devils are going to get dinged for having a first time head coach. The reality is, when you look at the data over many years, a first-time coach is going to have struggles and stumbles that a more experienced coach will not. Have a listen and let us know if you agree with what KenPom has to say.
    Soooo... over/under 2 days before my inevitable "Bracketology" thread becomes cross-contaminated with this thread? Let alone once I start analyzing the NET
    Scott Rich on the front page

    Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
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  3. #3
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    Dallas, TX

    Thanks!

    Jason, Sam, and Donald, you guys are absolutely killing it with the podcast.

    Life has made it so that I can't be on these boards nearly as much as I once could, but I can always count on you guys keep me in the loop with Duke while I'm driving. Keep up the great work!

    -kAzE

  4. #4
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    Well

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Soooo... over/under 2 days before my inevitable "Bracketology" thread becomes cross-contaminated with this thread? Let alone once I start analyzing the NET
    Both threads will be cross-contaminated with playing time threads, of course. But you knew that.

  5. #5
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    Here is the snippet where KenPom talks about Duke and Jon Scheyer this coming season: https://twitter.com/JasonDukeEvans/s...81846425108480
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #6
    I am interested to see the analysis Ken Pomeroy was referring to when he said the track record for a first year coach at a big time program isn’t terrible but isn’t great. What specific head coaches was he referring to? I know Hubert Davis just down the road was 20 minutes from a national title in his first year but maybe that’s an outlier. He also said Duke wasn’t super awesome last year. They won the ACC regular season for the first time in over a decade, made the ACC title game, and the NCAAT final four. That’s awesome to me. Just some thoughts. Not questioning his analytical prowess. He is a beast.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I am interested to see the analysis Ken Pomeroy was referring to when he said the track record for a first year coach at a big time program isn’t terrible but isn’t great. What specific head coaches was he referring to? I know Hubert Davis just down the road was 20 minutes from a national title in his first year but maybe that’s an outlier. He also said Duke wasn’t super awesome last year. They won the ACC regular season for the first time in over a decade, made the ACC title game, and the NCAAT final four. That’s awesome to me. Just some thoughts. Not questioning his analytical prowess. He is a beast.
    If you listen to the whole interview, he briefly gets into some programs where first time coaches have struggled. We did not press him too much on that stuff as it was not our focus -- we mostly wanted to talk about the evolution of his analytics. I also think his comment about last year is sorta moot as exactly 1 player of any significance returns from last year's Duke team. Any algorithm that is looking at last year to project this year's Duke squad is going to find very little data worth inputting.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If you listen to the whole interview, he briefly gets into some programs where first time coaches have struggled. We did not press him too much on that stuff as it was not our focus -- we mostly wanted to talk about the evolution of his analytics. I also think his comment about last year is sorta moot as exactly 1 player of any significance returns from last year's Duke team. Any algorithm that is looking at last year to project this year's Duke squad is going to find very little data worth inputting.
    I'm not too concerned about the first-year-coach comment, that's easy enough data to collect, on average. I'd be more interested in whether he thinks his pre-season algorithms are applicable when teams have such a high level of turnover. Full disclosure: haven't had a chance to listen yet.
    1200. DDMF.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I am interested to see the analysis Ken Pomeroy was referring to when he said the track record for a first year coach at a big time program isn’t terrible but isn’t great. What specific head coaches was he referring to? I know Hubert Davis just down the road was 20 minutes from a national title in his first year but maybe that’s an outlier. He also said Duke wasn’t super awesome last year. They won the ACC regular season for the first time in over a decade, made the ACC title game, and the NCAAT final four. That’s awesome to me. Just some thoughts. Not questioning his analytical prowess. He is a beast.
    Unlike many Duke fans, I assume KenPom looks at the overall, full-season performance of teams and not solely the NCAA tournament. Hubert's first UNC team's regular season was ranked #29 (pre-tournament) by Pomeroy, unranked in both AP and Coaches polls, and only good enough for a #8 tournament seed. Even including their lucky NCAAT run, KenPom only rated them as #16. That isn't terrible but it sure isn't great.

    Duke was #12 pre-tournament and #8 post-tournament. Since Duke was better than that (in Pomeroy's ratings) in 8 of the previous 12 seasons, I can easily see him saying we weren't super awesome last season.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If you listen to the whole interview, he briefly gets into some programs where first time coaches have struggled. We did not press him too much on that stuff as it was not our focus -- we mostly wanted to talk about the evolution of his analytics. I also think his comment about last year is sorta moot as exactly 1 player of any significance returns from last year's Duke team. Any algorithm that is looking at last year to project this year's Duke squad is going to find very little data worth inputting.
    Fair enough. How are you guys getting the Ken Pomeroy’s onto the pod now? What’s he charge per hour?

    Seriously - awesome guest and pod. Great content and many of us look forward to listening to every one. Kudos!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Fair enough. How are you guys getting the Ken Pomeroy’s onto the pod now?
    Diligent emailing...
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Fair enough. How are you guys getting the Ken Pomeroy’s onto the pod now?
    They bought an armoire off the sidewalk and discovered it had KP's secret algorithms written on a piece of paper.
    1200. DDMF.

  13. #13
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    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    I listened this morning while driving to an appointment. I'm just not a stat geek, but his so far unpublished preseason ranking for us will make it nice when we surprise people, well, at least Ken Pomeroy, when we get into and stay in the top 5 next season.

    Jason, I'm still waiting for those last 3 episodes of the Glory Years you promised us for LAST AUGUST and then again for this August.
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    https://ecogreen.greentechaffiliate.com

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    They bought an armoire off the sidewalk and discovered it had KP's secret algorithms written on a piece of paper.
    No soup for you!

  15. #15

    Parsed Sports

    Looks like Kenpom has some competition...Interesting analysis and score predictor got 89% of Duke's games right last year, including the terrible Final four loss. Also got the record right!
    duke.jpg

    www.parsedsports.com

    Go Duke!

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by DtrainBuckshot View Post
    Looks like Kenpom has some competition...Interesting analysis and score predictor got 89% of Duke's games right last year, including the terrible Final four loss. Also got the record right!
    duke.jpg

    www.parsedsports.com

    Go Duke!
    PowerBI? Blech...j/k....

    Torvik also is the major competition for Kenpom of course. I guess there must be money in this college basketball analytics stuff or people just like doing it.

    I will say when I had a login/subscription issue on kenpom, Ken himself was the one that emailed me to fix it...I thought that was pretty cool. Not some huge operation.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by DtrainBuckshot View Post
    Looks like Kenpom has some competition...Interesting analysis and score predictor got 89% of Duke's games right last year, including the terrible Final four loss. Also got the record right!
    duke.jpg

    www.parsedsports.com

    Go Duke!
    individual win loss far less interesting than spread prediction. if a team is predicted a team to lose by 1 ends up winning by one, that's a far better prediction than a team supposed to win by 30 and wins by 1.
    1200. DDMF.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DtrainBuckshot View Post
    That page is utterly unreadable. Using Chrome, it comes across as so small I cannot begin to read any of it.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  19. #19
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    Winston Salem, NC
    T-Rank has Duke #5 and the Cheats #4. Zags #1, Baylor #2 and the Vols #3. Houston, Texas, Kentucky, UCLA and Kansas round out the top ten.

    The rest of the ACC:

    Virginia #17
    Miami #20
    VT #23
    ND #1
    Clemson #57
    FSU #71
    BC #75
    CUSE #78
    Wake #84
    NC State #88
    GT #97
    L'SVILLE #98
    PITT #123

    U-Cheat has 73.3% returning minutes and Duke has 16.1 returning minutes. UNC talent rated 90.6% and Duke talent rated 81.5%.

    If the rest of the ACC is this bad, our Strength of Schedule will not be very good.

    K-Pom does not have the 2023 season up yet.

    GoDuke!

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    T-Rank has Duke #5 and the Cheats #4. Zags #1, Baylor #2 and the Vols #3. Houston, Texas, Kentucky, UCLA and Kansas round out the top ten.

    The rest of the ACC:

    Virginia #17
    Miami #20
    VT #23
    ND #1
    Clemson #57
    FSU #71
    BC #75
    CUSE #78
    Wake #84
    NC State #88
    GT #97
    L'SVILLE #98
    PITT #123

    U-Cheat has 73.3% returning minutes and Duke has 16.1 returning minutes. UNC talent rated 90.6% and Duke talent rated 81.5%.

    If the rest of the ACC is this bad, our Strength of Schedule will not be very good.

    K-Pom does not have the 2023 season up yet.

    GoDuke!
    How does UNC have a higher rated talent AND more returning minutes from last season but we're basically ranked the same overall? (Unless there's a huge gap between 4 and 5). Clearly there are other big inputs to the formula.

    Given the huge movements in college basketball these days though, these prognostications are total guesswork but still fun.

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