Originally Posted by
rsvman
I am not going to do this anymore, but I did do it one more time, for the championship game last night. Methods essentially the same. To cut down on the kvetching about this post, I will clarify my methods here.
1) I started, this time, with Duke pro/con and UVa, pro/con. I ended up adding a “neutral” column, too, for comments that focused on one of the two teams but were truly neutral, such as “Virginia is putting so-and-so on Roach.”
For further clarification, if he said, for example, “Virginia can’t seem to get off any good looks,” I chalked it up as a negative comment about Virginia, whereas if he said, “Duke’s defense is smothering Virginia right now,” I would chalk it up as a pro-Duke comment. Both comments are really saying the same thing, but in either case, it could not be construed as an anti-Duke comment, whether I called it “anti-Virginia” or “pro-Duke,” so in the end, it doesn’t bias the analysis. If the main focus of the comment was Virginia, I put it under Virginia, either pro or con, and if his main focus was Duke, I put it under Duke, pro or con.
2) Like before, I had two reffing columns, too, one “pro-Duke” and one “anti-Duke.” If he said, for example, that one of the Virginia players got fouled but there was no call, I put a mark under “anti-Duke.” If he said that Flip was fouled but there was no call, I put a mark under “pro-Duke.” I also included a “no comment” category under reffing, as well. Many of you noticed there was one pretty awkward no comment moment in the game.
OK, so here are the results.
First half. In the first half, he made 37 comments about Duke; 34 of them were positive. There was one negative comment and two neutral comments.
He made 33 comments about Virginia; 18 of them were positive, 9 of them were negative, and 3 of them were neutral.
Reffing-wise, in the first half, he made 5 comments, 3 of which were pro-Duke and 2 of which were anti-Duke. I know, it’s hard to believe. I couldn’t believe it myself. But it is what it is.
Second half. In the second half, he made 34 comments about Duke; 31 of them were positive, one was negative, and two were neutral.
He made 22 comments about Virginia; 14 were positive, 5 were negative, and 3 were neutral.
Reffing-wise, in the second half, he reverted to the mean: he made 5 comments, 3 of which were anti-Duke, one of which was pro-Duke, and one of which was neutral.
There was one “no comment” that was obvious, and that was when Virginia “saved the ball” but it appeared to have hit the end line without a call. When they showed the replay, he didn’t say anything, and it just seemed like a time at which he would typically interject something like, “Looks like that ball hit the baseline” or words to that effect. He had several “no comment” moments in the Miami game, as well. I wonder if his bosses have been telling him to tone down criticism of the officials.
Anyway, final tally, for those of you at home keeping score. 71 comments about Duke, and only two were negative. 55 comments about Virginia, and 14 of them were negative. (UVa fans could rightfully complain that he was actually biased TOWARDS Duke in last night’s performance.) As for the reffing, there were FOUR pro-Duke comments and 5 anti-Duke; worse than what he did in the Miami game, but better than I expected. Before I did this, if you asked me, I could swear that he NEVER said something like “Flip got fouled on that play, but no call.” It seemed to me that he ONLY did that with the other team. But last night he did that, or its equivalent FOUR TIMES. In one game.
Yes, he said he thought the ball might have hit Derek Lively, but he fairly quickly corrected that when he saw the replay. The no comment thing was interesting, to be sure. It LOOKED like it hit the line, to ME, with my eyes. Am I 100% certain the ball hit the line? No, but it looked like it did.
Anyway, after doing these two games (and that’s all I’m going to do, folks, with the possible exception of doing the first Duke-UNC game next year to see if it’s different during that game), I have become convinced that I was hearing bias that wasn’t really there. At one point I actually searched the web, trying to find that “Whatchu talkin’ ‘bout, Bilas?” T-shirt.
People have mentioned confirmation bias as a reason why an otherwise reasonable person could so misrepresent what actually happened, and there may be a component of that, but I have another theory, which I call the “shoe paradigm.” In essence, it is this: you only notice your shoes when they pinch your feet. According to this theory, the reason people think he is exhibiting an anti-Duke bias is because when he says good things about Duke, or when he points out that Duke player was fouled but no foul was called, you don’t notice it that much; your shoes are fitting you perfectly, as you expect them to. But when he says something that favors the other team, or criticizes a call that went Duke’s way, it hurts (it pinches your feet); therefore, you notice it. At the end of the game, looking back, the only things you really recall are the times when you got that twinge of pain. That’s my theory.
He is still going to annoy me, with his glib personality and endlessly repeated phrases, but maybe I will finally be able to hear him as a competent, neutral observer of the game itself.