It's time for Ryan Young to get his own thread

[SkyBrickey]

In the past 10 seasons, only five ACC players have exceeded 6 apg in a season (though one guy did it twice). For Jeremy Roach, whose highest apg in college has been 3.2 and to my knowledge never even reached 5 apg in high school, asking for 6 to 7 apg is a very tall order.

Granted it would be a huge step forward for Jeremy, but the last time we put the ball in one guy’s hands and said, you are the guy, was 2019-20 with Tre Jones. He averaged 6.4 apg.

With this roster we know a couple of things. We have scorers all over the court and will put up a lot of points. And Jeremy will have the opportunity to be a ball dominant PG.

There’s a decent chance Whitehead and/or Proctor step in as primary playmakers but I think this team will be at its best if Jeremy can step up and have a huge year at 6+ apg. He’s got the quickness, the handle, the experience to break down defenses and get lots of easy shots for others. Will he do it? Hope so. That’s also a big part of his path to the NBA.

[cato]

In the past 10 seasons, only five ACC players have exceeded 6 apg in a season (though one guy did it twice). For Jeremy Roach, whose highest apg in college has been 3.2 and to my knowledge never even reached 5 apg in high school, asking for 6 to 7 apg is a very tall order.

I was right that Tre Jones was one of those five, but wrong that Tyus also exceeded 6 apg in his sole season. I’m guessing he would have matched his younger brother if he had stayed another season, but obviously Tyus made the right decision to enter the NBA.

[cato]

Granted it would be a huge step forward for Jeremy, but the last time we put the ball in one guy’s hands and said, you are the guy, was 2019-20 with Tre Jones. He averaged 6.4 apg.

With this roster we know a couple of things. We have scorers all over the court and will put up a lot of points. And Jeremy will have the opportunity to be a ball dominant PG.

There’s a decent chance Whitehead and/or Proctor step in as primary playmakers but I think this team will be at its best if Jeremy can step up and have a huge year at 6+ apg. He’s got the quickness, the handle, the experience to break down defenses and get lots of easy shots for others. Will he do it? Hope so. That’s also a big part of his path to the NBA.

Tre averaged 5.3 assist as a Frosh. In his first two seasons Jeremy has posted averages of 2.8 and 3.2. It would be nice to see that climb continue, as long as he also continues to cut down on turnovers, but I don’t see Jeremy doubling his average.

And that’s okay. Jeremy proved to be a capable scorer on the big stage last year in the NCAAs, generating his own shots. My hope is that the volume of quality shots he creates (whether his own or someone else’s) will leap

[MarkD83]

I have tried to spend this off-season reading the board rather than commenting so that I can make observations about DBR "human nature". I am doing this because I really do not know what to expect out of this team since I do not know Jon's basketball philosophy.

So on to the "DBR" human nature part... it only took 20 posts for the "Ryan Young" thread to become the "Jeremy Roach" thread. I guess we all have short attention spans.

[Bluedog]

Mark Williams [...] did a decent job of staying out of foul trouble at the end of the season.

Too soon... 😡 Although I recognize you're talking freshman year and Theo John certainly did his job in the first half to keep us in it. Still, wasn't fun seeing Mark in foul trouble in the F4 against the holes...

[budwom]

I have tried to spend this off-season reading the board rather than commenting so that I can make observations about DBR "human nature". I am doing this because I really do not know what to expect out of this team since I do not know Jon's basketball philosophy.

So on to the "DBR" human nature part... it only took 20 posts for the "Ryan Young" thread to become the "Jeremy Roach" thread. I guess we all have short attention spans.

yeah, and that's too bad, because I think Mr. Young is being seriously misunderestimated...

[dukelifer]

Too soon... 😡 Although I recognize you're talking freshman year and Theo John certainly did his job in the first half to keep us in it. Still, wasn't fun seeing Mark in foul trouble in the F4 against the holes...

Yes Freshman Williams. Carter fouled out in his last game against Kansas and Okafor had 4 in his last game playing only 22 min.

[MChambers]

yeah, and that's too bad, because I think Mr. Young is being seriously misunderestimated...

Ryan has played three years at NU. I’ve seen some of those games. I’ve looked at his stats. He’s a big body and works hard, but he’s not particularly agile or graceful. What makes so many here so excited? 12 minutes of summer scrimmage video?

I think he’ll be a decent backup, but I doubt he’ll be more than that, this season or next.

I hope he exceeds my expectations, of course, but I’ll be surprised if he does.

[dm9e24]

I'm not so sure the coaching staff is looking at Young for 2023. I think their thinking about how to use him this year.

As for the frontcourt haul, it's very good on paper: #2, #4, #22

But Duke has had frontcourts similar to this or better:
-2019: #5 (Carey), #12 (Hurt), #25 (Moore, who spent a lot of time at the 4 his freshman year)
-2017: #1 (Bagley), #7 (Carter) with Bolden on board
-2016: #2 (Giles, and we didn't collectively know his knees were shot), #4 Tatum (played 4 most of the season), #11 Bolden, with Amile on the roster

None of those teams were particularly deep, and probably because the coach likes short rotations.

This all goes to show I think there is so much we don't know. Lively is a great individual defensive player. How's his offense and team defense? Flip is a 3-level scorer. How's his defense? Mitchell looks really mobile. Can he shot? How's his defense? Young looks like an old-school big. How's his defense and why didn't he play a lot at Northwestern?

I do believe we'll see a 4-man frontcourt rotation, but someone may get squeezed, especially if Dariq is awesome at the 4 with Roach, Proctor, and Grandison at the 1-3 (and maybe Lively at the 5 for a true five-out offense). I just don't know who is going to get squeezed. If I were a betting man, it would be Mitchell, mainly because a #22 big man may be hard to find minutes his freshman year.

I hope Dariq plays very few minutes at the four.

[UrinalCake]

Duke freshmen Cs and PFs in the past 15 years (who played >= 15 mpg) and their fouls per 40 minutes:

I don't see Paolo on this list, and I have no idea what his fouls per 40 are but I do recall him getting into foul trouble in at least a couple big games. I see our center rotation this coming season as being very similar to last season's: the starter (Williams/Lively), the veteran backup (Theo/Young), and the versatile 4 who could play center if needed but we would prefer not to (Paolo/Flip). Despite having theoretically three guys who could play center, we still ran out of bigs in the final four when Theo and Mark each picked up three fouls in the first half (or close to it, I've blocked out the details of the game from memory). So there will definitely be games when Young is called upon due to foul trouble. But I don't think that necessarily means he will average huge minutes. If he's getting more than 15mpg that likely means something went off the rails with Lively, and not in a good way.

[Kedsy]

I don't see Paolo on this list, and I have no idea what his fouls per 40 are but I do recall him getting into foul trouble in at least a couple big games. I see our center rotation this coming season as being very similar to last season's: the starter (Williams/Lively), the veteran backup (Theo/Young), and the versatile 4 who could play center if needed but we would prefer not to (Paolo/Flip). Despite having theoretically three guys who could play center, we still ran out of bigs in the final four when Theo and Mark each picked up three fouls in the first half (or close to it, I've blocked out the details of the game from memory). So there will definitely be games when Young is called upon due to foul trouble. But I don't think that necessarily means he will average huge minutes. If he's getting more than 15mpg that likely means something went off the rails with Lively, and not in a good way.

Yeah, my bad. I forgot about Paolo. For some reason, I put the list together starting in 2021 (and going backward). His fouls per 40 were 2.3, which would be 2nd-lowest on the list.

There's obviously a difference between unlikely to get into foul trouble and never getting into foul trouble. Nobody is the latter.

[budwom]

Ryan has played three years at NU. I’ve seen some of those games. I’ve looked at his stats. He’s a big body and works hard, but he’s not particularly agile or graceful. What makes so many here so excited? 12 minutes of summer scrimmage video?

I think he’ll be a decent backup, but I doubt he’ll be more than that, this season or next.

I hope he exceeds my expectations, of course, but I’ll be surprised if he does.

Yes, really...because it all comes down to the alternatives in the frontcourt, and not all of those guys are ready for prime time IMO.

[Kedsy]

Yes, really...because it all comes down to the alternatives in the frontcourt, and not all of those guys are ready for prime time IMO.

Based on what?

[budwom]

Based on what?

Based on information I trust

[scottdude8]

Ryan has played three years at NU. I’ve seen some of those games. I’ve looked at his stats. He’s a big body and works hard, but he’s not particularly agile or graceful. What makes so many here so excited? 12 minutes of summer scrimmage video?

I think he’ll be a decent backup, but I doubt he’ll be more than that, this season or next.

I hope he exceeds my expectations, of course, but I’ll be surprised if he does.

You're 100% right about his stats, but I think a LOT of that had to do with how he was utilized. As a freshman, Young played 25 mpg, shooting 53% from the field and 67% from the line, and averaged 6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 9 points per game. The next two years, Chris Collins adjusted his strategy to emphasize small ball, not coincidentally corresponding with Pete Nance's emergence. As such, Young's playing time and his role diminished, but he continued to be quite efficient... last year, he averaged the same 9 ppg on just 17 mpg.

You're also right that he isn't particularly agile or graceful. But there are plenty of very good college big men who fit that mold. Someone compared him to Cameron Krutwig of Loyola somewhere on the board, and I think that comparison is illustrative. Krutwig wasn't a quality athlete by any stretch, but knew how to play in the post and exploit his body. He ended up being MVC Player of the Year and a major factor in beating No. 1 seed Illinois (holding his own against Kofi Cockburn) in his senior season, after being a major part of a Final Four run his freshman year. Now, how excited would we be if Duke had convinced Krutwig to grad transfer and be our backup big? I don't think it's out of the question that Young could've approximated (not equaled, approximated!) Krutwig's productivity in the MVC as the focal point of a team given what I've seen of him against Big Ten big men.

I think we have to adjust our expectations for Young based on the situation he was in at Northwestern the past two years. If we do so, I think it's clear Young is exactly the type of multi-year college big, even without any NBA hopes, that has often driven us crazy in the past (the type of guy Virginia always seems to have, for example). Personally, I'm super excited to have one of those guys on our side for a change.

[AGDukesky]

I’m certainly not saying Young is at his level, but his play in the post reminds me of Timme.