It's time for Ryan Young to get his own thread

[scottdude8]

The players and coaches, and in turn the N&O, are taking notice: https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...264045671.html

Some money quotes:

“I’m sure even the coaches didn’t realize he was that good,” Whitehead said.

It got better in January, when Young produced 18 points, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals when Northwestern won 64-62 at Michigan State.

“I redshirted my freshman year,” Young said. “So you know, I have kind of gone through the whole process of being a very young player. These guys are more competitive than I was as a freshmen, but that’s something I come in and help these guys learn, be a really good mentor but also have a positive effect on the court. Be somebody that can help win some games.”

[dukelifer]

The players and coaches, and in turn the N&O, are taking notice: https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...264045671.html

Some money quotes:

Experienced kid who has played in a tough conference. We have seen that big guys with an old man's game can be very, very effective in college ball.

[UrinalCake]

Love the quotes and he has looked great in the scrimmage videos. It's tough to see a path for him to get significant playing time unless Mitchell can legitimately play the 3 and Flip can defend at the 4. Otherwise our frontcourt is just really crowded. I think Young will give us much more offense than Theo gave us last year, but the obvious concern is whether he can defend in space when he gets targetted on switches, or alternately whether Jon will employ some other defensive strategy to counter the PNR besides the switch-everything strategy that K fell in love with. Brian Zoubek was one of the slowest players in Duke history yet he was masterful at hedging and recovering, so I could see Jon doing the same with Young.

[MartyClark]

Experienced kid who has played in a tough conference. We have seen that big guys with an old man's game can be very, very effective in college ball.

Love the old man's game. Maybe because that's all I have anymore.

[dukelifer]

Love the quotes and he has looked great in the scrimmage videos. It's tough to see a path for him to get significant playing time unless Mitchell can legitimately play the 3 and Flip can defend at the 4. Otherwise our frontcourt is just really crowded. I think Young will give us much more offense than Theo gave us last year, but the obvious concern is whether he can defend in space when he gets targetted on switches, or alternately whether Jon will employ some other defensive strategy to counter the PNR besides the switch-everything strategy that K fell in love with. Brian Zoubek was one of the slowest players in Duke history yet he was masterful at hedging and recovering, so I could see Jon doing the same with Young.

Big guys- particularly Freshman - foul a lot. Young will play because the others will likely get into foul trouble. Of course Young's own playing time has been limited by his fouling. Duke will play a lot of big guys this year.

[chrishoke]

Big guys- particularly Freshman - foul a lot. Young will play because the others will likely get into foul trouble. Of course Young's own playing time has been limited by his fouling. Duke will play a lot of big guys this year.

His fouls per 40 minutes was pretty good last year. Much better than Theo.

[arnie]

His fouls per 40 minutes was pretty good last year. Much better than Theo.

Low bar, but I agree he should play significant minutes. Maybe his D isn’t great, bit better than Flip’s? If Lively out, I can see him playing along side Mitchell in a smaller ball lineup.

[Kedsy]

Big guys- particularly Freshman - foul a lot. Young will play because the others will likely get into foul trouble. Of course Young's own playing time has been limited by his fouling. Duke will play a lot of big guys this year.

Duke freshmen Cs and PFs in the past 15 years (who played >= 15 mpg) and their fouls per 40 minutes:

2021 Mark Williams, 3.9 fouls per 40
2020 Matthew Hurt, 3.6
2020 Vernon Carey, 4.4
2019 Zion Williamson, 2.7
2018 Marvin Bagley, 2.1
2018 Wendell Carter, 4.2
2017 Jayson Tatum, 3.6
2016 Brandon Ingram, 2.4
2015 Jahlil Okafor, 2.8
2015 Justise Winslow, 3.8
2014 Jabari Parker, 3.1
2008 Kyle Singler, 4.3

None of these guys would have regularly been in foul trouble if they played 25 to 30 mpg. Admittedly, several of these players are small forwards playing up a position, and several Duke freshmen bigs who played fewer than 15 mpg had fouls per 40 north of 5, but it's far from a lock that our current crop of freshmen bigs will be foul prone.

[flyingdutchdevil]

There seems to be a consensus that Lively, Flip, Mitchell, and Young are making up the frontcourt rotation, which is wonderful.

I think there is strong combination of defense, offense, shooting, rebounding, and length in that group. No player is truly 'elite', ie Okafor/Jabari/Bagley, but that combination of players is really exciting.

What I do not know is the minutes split, but we have plenty of time to talk about that

[scottdude8]

Big guys- particularly Freshman - foul a lot. Young will play because the others will likely get into foul trouble. Of course Young's own playing time has been limited by his fouling. Duke will play a lot of big guys this year.

Low bar, but I agree he should play significant minutes. Maybe his D isn’t great, bit better than Flip’s? If Lively out, I can see him playing along side Mitchell in a smaller ball lineup.

There seems to be a consensus that Lively, Flip, Mitchell, and Young are making up the frontcourt rotation, which is wonderful.

I think there is strong combination of defense, offense, shooting, rebounding, and length in that group. No player is truly 'elite', ie Okafor/Jabari/Bagley, but that combination of players is really exciting.

What I do not know is the minutes split, but we have plenty of time to talk about that

His minutes may not be huge this year, but that's because our recruiting haul in the frontcourt was abnormally (potentially historically?) good this year. I think what might be happening is we're seeing him lay a stake to a much bigger role in 2023-24. Maybe that's what turned the tide in the Estrella recruitment (and is that tidbit of info hidden behind the TDD paywall, haha)... the staff may have watched Ryan this summer, realized he's better than they thought, and recognized that a center rotation of him and Reeves in 2023-24 would be very solid.

Given that we don't have any traditional centers that appear to be the focus of our recruiting out until 2025 with the larger Boozer twin (and even he may be more of a PF), I wouldn't be surprised if the staff forsees the center position being manned primarily by Lively in 2022, Young in 2023, Reeves in 2024, and Reeves/Boozer in 2025. Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but that would be some awesome foresight and potential continuity on our roster that we haven't had in quite some time. Especially with the devaluation of centers in the modern NBA, I think a recruiting strategy that focuses on maintaining continuity and leadership at the 5, where it's more likely to get multi-year contributing players (see Bacot, Dickinson, Cockburn, Tschiebwe, etc), and pairing that with NBA level talent on the perimeter, is a really solid strategy.

[uh_no]

Duke freshmen Cs and PFs in the past 15 years (who played >= 15 mpg) and their fouls per 40 minutes:

2021 Mark Williams, 3.9 fouls per 40
2020 Matthew Hurt, 3.6
2020 Vernon Carey, 4.4
2019 Zion Williamson, 2.7
2018 Marvin Bagley, 2.1
2018 Wendell Carter, 4.2
2017 Jayson Tatum, 3.6
2016 Brandon Ingram, 2.4
2015 Jahlil Okafor, 2.8
2015 Justise Winslow, 3.8
2014 Jabari Parker, 3.1
2008 Kyle Singler, 4.3

None of these guys would have regularly been in foul trouble if they played 25 to 30 mpg. Admittedly, several of these players are small forwards playing up a position, and several Duke freshmen bigs who played fewer than 15 mpg had fouls per 40 north of 5, but it's far from a lock that our current crop of freshmen bigs will be foul prone.

That's only true if fouls are evenly distributed over minutes, which they are not. There's some queueing theory I don't quite remember how to compute, but the probability of a *burst* of arrivals (fouls) in a short amount of time in a poisson distribution is far more likely than people give it credit for.

Ultimately it depends exactly on your definition of regularly and foul trouble. But simply taking their fouls per 40 understates the liklihood of being in foul trouble in any given game.

[SkyBrickey]

I think most of us have had Mitchell, Proctor and Young penciled in as 6-8 in our rotation. And I said in another thread this may be the strongest 6-8 Duke has had in many years. And both Blakes + Schutt may be surprisingly ready to play in the 9-10 roles. It’s too early to call it, but this could be Duke’s deepest squad.

Mitchell, Proctor and Young all seem to be very offensive minded players so I could see 7 guys averaging 8-12 ppg with only Whitehead scoring 14+ ppg. If Roach can step up to be the orchestrator with 6-7 apg, and we can gel as a team on defense, this could be a very special team.

One thing I noticed in that second scrimmage video was Ryan using his size and savvy to create a great angle for a Roach pass into the post for a layup. If Flip can spread the floor with his shooting leaving Ryan alone in the post, we may see a lot of this Roach to Ryan, or even Flip to Ryan, passes for easy lay-ins.

[scottdude8]

I think most of us have had Mitchell, Proctor and Young penciled in as 6-8 in our rotation. And I said in another thread this may be the strongest 6-8 Duke has had in many years. And both Blakes + Schutt may be surprisingly ready to play in the 9-10 roles. It’s too early to call it, but this could be Duke’s deepest squad.

Mitchell, Proctor and Young all seem to be very offensive minded players so I could see 7 guys averaging 8-12 ppg with only Whitehead scoring 14+ ppg. If Roach can step up to be the orchestrator with 6-7 apg, and we can gel as a team on defense, this could be a very special team.

One thing I noticed in that second scrimmage video was Ryan using his size and savvy to create a great angle for a Roach pass into the post for a layup. If Flip can spread the floor with his shooting leaving Ryan alone in the post, we may see a lot of this Roach to Ryan, or even Flip to Ryan, passes for easy lay-ins.

Yeah, I think something we'll see this year is a lot of specialized lineups, and this could be one of them: a "4-around-1" where Young is the 1. While he's nowhere near the talent Lively is, it seems clear he has a much better back to the basket game. With Flip or Mark at the 4 we should be able to space the floor and get Ryan the ball in optimal post position. Do that against a team that struggles to defend the post and/or against an opposing big we want to get in foul trouble, and that specialized lineup will pay dividends.

[flyingdutchdevil]

His minutes may not be huge this year, but that's because our recruiting haul in the frontcourt was abnormally (potentially historically?) good this year. I think what might be happening is we're seeing him lay a stake to a much bigger role in 2023-24. Maybe that's what turned the tide in the Estrella recruitment (and is that tidbit of info hidden behind the TDD paywall, haha)... the staff may have watched Ryan this summer, realized he's better than they thought, and recognized that a center rotation of him and Reeves in 2023-24 would be very solid.

Given that we don't have any traditional centers that appear to be the focus of our recruiting out until 2025 with the larger Boozer twin (and even he may be more of a PF), I wouldn't be surprised if the staff forsees the center position being manned primarily by Lively in 2022, Young in 2023, Reeves in 2024, and Reeves/Boozer in 2025. Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but that would be some awesome foresight and potential continuity on our roster that we haven't had in quite some time. Especially with the devaluation of centers in the modern NBA, I think a recruiting strategy that focuses on maintaining continuity and leadership at the 5, where it's more likely to get multi-year contributing players (see Bacot, Dickinson, Cockburn, Tschiebwe, etc), and pairing that with NBA level talent on the perimeter, is a really solid strategy.

I'm not so sure the coaching staff is looking at Young for 2023. I think their thinking about how to use him this year.

As for the frontcourt haul, it's very good on paper: #2, #4, #22

But Duke has had frontcourts similar to this or better:
-2019: #5 (Carey), #12 (Hurt), #25 (Moore, who spent a lot of time at the 4 his freshman year)
-2017: #1 (Bagley), #7 (Carter) with Bolden on board
-2016: #2 (Giles, and we didn't collectively know his knees were shot), #4 Tatum (played 4 most of the season), #11 Bolden, with Amile on the roster

None of those teams were particularly deep, and probably because the coach likes short rotations.

This all goes to show I think there is so much we don't know. Lively is a great individual defensive player. How's his offense and team defense? Flip is a 3-level scorer. How's his defense? Mitchell looks really mobile. Can he shot? How's his defense? Young looks like an old-school big. How's his defense and why didn't he play a lot at Northwestern?

I do believe we'll see a 4-man frontcourt rotation, but someone may get squeezed, especially if Dariq is awesome at the 4 with Roach, Proctor, and Grandison at the 1-3 (and maybe Lively at the 5 for a true five-out offense). I just don't know who is going to get squeezed. If I were a betting man, it would be Mitchell, mainly because a #22 big man may be hard to find minutes his freshman year.

[budwom]

I suspect Young is going to be far more competitive with Flip than many assume...

[flyingdutchdevil]

I suspect Young is going to be far more competitive with Flip than many assume...

Another thing is our freshman have a ton of length but not necessarily a lot of bulk. In the scrimmages, one thing that is very clear is how 'petit' Flip and Lively's upper bodies are compared to Young. And Mitchell looks like a smallish PF. He clearly doesn't have anywhere near the size of, say, Paolo.

Will it matter? I assume with some opponents, so having a big fella like Young can always help.

[Kedsy]

If Roach can step up to be the orchestrator with 6-7 apg...

In the past 10 seasons, only five ACC players have exceeded 6 apg in a season (though one guy did it twice). For Jeremy Roach, whose highest apg in college has been 3.2 and to my knowledge never even reached 5 apg in high school, asking for 6 to 7 apg is a very tall order.

[scottdude8]

Another thing is our freshman have a ton of length but not necessarily a lot of bulk. In the scrimmages, one thing that is very clear is how 'petit' Flip and Lively's upper bodies are compared to Young. And Mitchell looks like a smallish PF. He clearly doesn't have anywhere near the size of, say, Paolo.

Will it matter? I assume with some opponents, so having a big fella like Young can always help.

Yeah, and the benefit is Ryan has shown he's going to be more than a "big body" with 5 fouls to give: he may give those fouls while providing more offense than we would otherwise expect.

I think Ryan's floor is a "thicker" big that won't play more than 5-10 mpg normally, but against teams with a bigger center will be used for his 5 fouls while providing more offense than a guy like Theo did in his limited minutes. His ceiling is a guy who can play 20+ mpg and score ~10 ppg while being limited defensively. I doubt he'll reach that ceiling this year, if ever, and he certainly won't be the defender/rebounder that Theo was, but I think a strong argument could be made that he has a higher ceiling in terms of impact than Theo did a year ago. Heck, his floor will still be a very valuable member of this young squad. Where he falls on that spectrum will be an interesting subplot to this season, I think.

[dukelifer]

Duke freshmen Cs and PFs in the past 15 years (who played >= 15 mpg) and their fouls per 40 minutes:

2021 Mark Williams, 3.9 fouls per 40
2020 Matthew Hurt, 3.6
2020 Vernon Carey, 4.4
2019 Zion Williamson, 2.7
2018 Marvin Bagley, 2.1
2018 Wendell Carter, 4.2
2017 Jayson Tatum, 3.6
2016 Brandon Ingram, 2.4
2015 Jahlil Okafor, 2.8
2015 Justise Winslow, 3.8
2014 Jabari Parker, 3.1
2008 Kyle Singler, 4.3

None of these guys would have regularly been in foul trouble if they played 25 to 30 mpg. Admittedly, several of these players are small forwards playing up a position, and several Duke freshmen bigs who played fewer than 15 mpg had fouls per 40 north of 5, but it's far from a lock that our current crop of freshmen bigs will be foul prone.

If you look at Carey- who is a true Big as compared to Winslow or Ingram- He had 4 or 5 fouls in 8 of his last 15 games. Wendell Carter had a similar final stretch of 4-5 fouls in half of his last 16 games. Mark Williams and Okafor did a decent job of staying out of foul trouble at the end of the season. Of course we will have to see how Lively and Flip play as Freshman in the second half of the ACC season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In the past 10 seasons, only five ACC players have exceeded 6 apg in a season (though one guy did it twice). For Jeremy Roach, whose highest apg in college has been 3.2 and to my knowledge never even reached 5 apg in high school, asking for 6 to 7 apg is a very tall order.

6-7 apg is a lot, but I'm not sure if 5 apg is out of the question. Unlike last year, we don't have the same number of ball handlers/playmakers. It looks like Roach and Whitehead (I'm not convinced Blakes is playing a lot). Also, Roach could average 35+ min per game, and his 4.3 assists per 40 min would translate to 3.8 apg, so going to 5.0 isn't that significant of a leap.

I also think his apg will be highly dependent on how offensively competent this team is; will Roach have to focus on scoring due to a lack of offensive options at the 2-5, or can he focus more on playmaking due to the high level of offensive production out there.